China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Most industry people believe the box office volume, at 45B $7B in 2015, hasn't reach half of its ceiling yet. Estimates range from 100B to 200B+ (as high as $40B in today's currency) when the market reaches its saturation. It probably will take some twenty years before the market stables and even starts to decrease, as China's population will start to decrease in one or two decades.

 

The economy growth slowing down, the durative urbanization, the aging and even declining of the population, it is too much complicated if we want to take all things into consideration ....

 

Beside box office, the VOD and surrounding product market has just begun sky-rocketing. Most big movies right now can earn 10m or more through VOD distribution. Hot flicks like Monster Hunt and Monkey King are already selling surrounding products for millions in sale.

Edited July 29, 2015 by firedeep

[sgchn40]

I wonder if crowdfunding will be another source of momentum for the growth of box office gross. It appears to one way to create "self volunteer water army"

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2015-07/29/c_134458576.htm

[A Marvel Fanboy]

I wonder if crowdfunding will be another source of momentum for the growth of box office gross. It appears to one way to create "self volunteer water army"

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2015-07/29/c_134458576.htm

I think crowd-funding could be very helpful for some smaller movies finding invests but for regular big movies, it works more as a marketing tool to help create buzz and awareness.

[POTUS 2020]

Most industry people believe the box office volume, at 45B $7B in 2015, hasn't reach half of its ceiling yet. Estimates range from 100B to 200B+ (as high as $40B in today's currency) when the market reaches its saturation. It probably will take some twenty years before the market stables and even starts to decrease, as China's population will start to decrease in one or two decades.

 

The economy growth slowing down, the durative urbanization, the aging and even declining of the population, it is too much complicated if we want to take all things into consideration ....

 

Beside box office, the VOD and surrounding product market has just begun sky-rocketing. Most big movies right now can earn 10m or more through VOD distribution. Hot flicks like Monster Hunt and Monkey King are already selling surrounding products for millions in sale.

You mentioned a few weeks ago that the secondary market wasn't a big thing yet. I assume that would slow box office as it becomes more available. They'll make millions more net, but cannibalize some of the BO. Domestic numbers prove that. 4 movies entered the top ten all time ticket sales from 1973-84. 1984 was the year "everyone" got a vcr, including me. Only titanic has gotten into the top ten since even though the population has increased by 40%. Ticket sale peaked in 2002, right about the time online piracy kicked in and a quicker dvd/vod release(3-5 months). Domestic BO ticket sales last year was down 20% off the 2002 peak and just 5% more than 1984. There was a somg in the early 80's. "Video Killed the Radio Star". It was the first video played on MTV upon its inception. Video boosted the music world but stifled the movie BO growth.

 

Is torrenting a popular thing in China? I live in India now. Here you pay by the gigabyte for internet. It can be slow and cost $3 to download a movie torrent. You can go to the theater for less so no sense in doing it.  If the Chinese have/get unlimited highspeed data like the US I assume thatll explode eventually

[A Marvel Fanboy]

VOD is still a very small market but it's rapidly growing. Downloading movies is very popular and basically free (illegal, in other words) in China but watching movies online is costly, about 5 yuan per movie or cheaper if you have VIP account. Some movies (and TV shows) are free to watch online if the video sites pay for you.

[sgchn40]

You mentioned a few weeks ago that the secondary market wasn't a big thing yet. I assume that would slow box office as it becomes more available. They'll make millions more net, but cannibalize some of the BO. Domestic numbers prove that. 4 movies entered the top ten all time ticket sales from 1973-84. 1984 was the year "everyone" got a vcr, including me. Only titanic has gotten into the top ten since even though the population has increased by 40%. Ticket sale peaked in 2002, right about the time online piracy kicked in and a quicker dvd/vod release(3-5 months). Domestic BO ticket sales last year was down 20% off the 2002 peak and just 5% more than 1984. There was a somg in the early 80's. "Video Killed the Radio Star". It was the first video played on MTV upon its inception. Video boosted the music world but stifled the movie BO growth.

Is torrenting a popular thing in China? I live in India now. Here you pay by the gigabyte for internet. It can be slow and cost $3 to download a movie torrent. You can go to the theater for less so no sense in doing it. If the Chinese have/get unlimited highspeed data like the US I assume thatll explode eventually

Now that is an effective way to fight pirating

[jiangsen]

#ChinaBoxOffice Weds 7.29 (Est) #1 #MonsterHunt $8.8M/$251.2M #2 #JianbingMan $3.7M/$152.5M #3 #MonkeyKingHeroIsBack $2.4M/$115.9M

— China Box Office (@ChinaBoxOffice)

July 29, 2015

#ChinaBoxOffice Weds 7.29 (Est) #4 #OnlyYou $0.7M/$10.2M #5 @ImitationGame $0.4M/$4.3M #6 #Seer5 $0.37M/$7.95M Daily Total $17.4M

— China Box Office (@ChinaBoxOffice)

July 29, 2015

[Olive]

Wednesday(7.29.2015) Estimates

 

Daily total 108M yuan 

1). Monster Hunt ￥54.5M/cume: 1560M($251.3M) 

2). JianBing Man ￥22.8M/cume: 947M($152.5M) 

3). TMK : Hero is back ￥15.2M/cume: 720M($115.9M) 

4). Only You: 4.5M/cume:63.7M($10.3M)

5). Seer 5 ￥2.5M/cume: 49.4M($8M) 

6). The Imitation Game ￥1.4M/cume: 26.6M($4.3M)

[CoolK]

 

Wednesday(7.29.2015) Estimates

 

Daily total 108M yuan 

1). Monster Hunt ￥54.5M/cume: 1560M($251.3M) 

2). JianBing Man ￥22.8M/cume: 947M($152.5M) 

3). TMK : Hero is back ￥15.2M/cume: 720M($115.9M) 

4). Only You: 4.5M/cume:63.7M($10.3M)

5). Seer 5 ￥2.5M/cume: 49.4M($8M) 

6). The Imitation Game ￥1.4M/cume: 26.6M($4.3M)

 

does MH have a shot at FF7 ?? i would love to see that sucker go down 

Edited July 30, 2015 by CoolK

[sgchn40]

Today, the number of screenings for MH, JBM and TMK drop drastically. I think FF7 is untouchable for now.

[jiangsen]

Today, the number of screenings for MH, JBM and TMK drop drastically. I think FF7 is untouchable for now.

Even though screenings for MH, JBM, and TMK are dropping because of new releases this weekend, their box office takes shouldn't drop too much. The new films will all start high and end low -- the result of heavily subsidized pre-sale tickets and protection from cooperating cinema chains (Lady of The Dynasty and Wanda are in bed with eachother and Wild City has subsidized tickets from Maoyan flooding cinemas today). Once the market stabilizes and word of mouth kicks in -- especially for The Crossing which avoided midnight and preview screenings like the plague -- we should see the big three holding strong.

 

I should add, Monster Hunt has no chance of beating FF7, but T4 and ￥2B are sill in play.

Edited July 30, 2015 by jiangsen

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Even though screenings for MH, JBM, and TMK are dropping because of new releases this weekend, their box office takes shouldn't drop too much. The new films will all start high and end low -- the result of heavily subsidized pre-sale tickets and protection from cooperating cinema chains (Lady of The Dynasty and Wanda are in bed with eachother and Wild City has subsidized tickets from Maoyan flooding cinemas today). Once the market stabilizes and word of mouth kicks in -- especially for The Crossing which avoided midnight and preview screenings like the plague -- we should see the big three holding strong.

 

I should add, Monster Hunt has no chance of beating FF7, but T4 and ￥2B are sill in play.

Pretty much agreed. Though I think 2B for MH is more than in play ....

 

None of this week's openers will have good legs even though next week only To the Force will be wide.

[POTUS 2020]

The two new releases looking to come in at 35-50m. hard to narrow with all the presales on openers

TMK pacing  -20-25%

MH   -25-30%. lost 33% of showtimes. 20% total now

JB -40-50%

 

I want to see Wanda and Lady Dynasty in bed together. Could be a good a movie. Good luck with the censors though

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Remember what happened to Only You (OD) last week ? 

[MinaTakla]

Kylin, any updates on the Want to See index?

[sgchn40]

The two new releases looking to come in at 35-50m. hard to narrow with all the presales on openers

TMK pacing -20-25%

MH -25-30%. lost 33% of showtimes. 20% total now

JB -40-50%

I want to see Wanda and Lady Dynasty in bed together. Could be a good a movie. Good luck with the censors though

You mean the powerful father or the foul mouth son?

[POTUS 2020]

You mean the powerful father or the foul mouth son?

I was thinking along the lines of too hot oiled naked hairless Asian chicks having a pillow fight.

 

The top 3 are looking at 40m +/-5m

my unedumacated guess is

MH 42

WC 41

LD 40

JB 12

TMK 10

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Wild City was .... terrible. I will rate it 3/10 ...

 

At this point 2B is clearly well locked for MH, the question is if it can reach 2.2B.

[sgchn40]

Wild City was .... terrible. I will rate it 3/10 ...

At this point 2B is clearly well locked for MH, the question is if it can reach 2.2B.

Wow! That bad?

MH will top today?

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Wow! That bad?

MH will top today?

It looks so.

 

WC packs outdated dialogue, action, style with a simple story. There are also a lot of boring moments. The acting of all main actors is blank and one-note.

 

My ratings for some of the recent Chinese action-thrillers in theaters:

 

Wild City 3/10

SPL2 6/10

Helios 6/10 

Kung Fu Jungle 6/10

The White Storm 7.5/10

Firestorm 6.5/10

Cold War 7/10

 

didnt check Overheard 3 but the first two were decent.