Thursday Numbers (12/20)

[4815162342]

Really? You mean, unadjusted, right?

Deathly Hallows 1 unadjusted is at 290 million, Azkaban and Half-Blood Prince both hover at about 320m. Depending on how well Hobbit holds this weekend, 320+ is still in play, especially with very favorable weekdays and a very generous 3rd weekend coming up.

[Elessar]

I still think it's gonna be a tough fight for $300m.The ones hoping for an 100% Friday increase are gonna be disappointed.

[Accursed Arachnid!™]

So shitty it'll still have a good shot at besting the adjusted numbers for multiple Harry Potter films. I'll take it.

[4815162342]

I still think it's gonna be a tough fight for $300m.The ones hoping for an 100% Friday increase are gonna be disappointed.

Why? Please provide some support for the blanket statement so it doesn't have to be dismissed as just being grumpy pessimism.

[Elessar]

I provided support. Week-to-week drops of other movies, some are close to staying flat, kids movies are even higher than they were last week. Do you expect tiny drops or even increases for this weekend? I don't.

[JackO]

meh for everything except Monsters 3D which is terrible.

[Accursed Arachnid!™]

I provided support. Week-to-week drops of other movies, some are close to staying flat, kids movies are even higher than they were last week. Do you expect tiny drops or even increases for this weekend? I don't.

TH hasn't even been out a week. How can you compare it to the other films? Also, if TH merely follows IAL's pattern from here it gets close to 300m and IAL was not a family film. 300m is happening.

[4815162342]

I provided support. Week-to-week drops of other movies, some are close to staying flat, kids movies are even higher than they were last week. Do you expect tiny drops or even increases for this weekend? I don't.

What I expect is that The Hobbit has these advantages over I am Legend:1) The Hobbit's audience reception has been substantially better than I am Legend's, which had a final act that turned a number of people off. Audiences are much more forgiving of iffy beginnings than iffy endings, and the frustration over The Hobbit's opening act is overstated based on the majority of crowd reports so far.2) The Hobbit is certainly skewing more towards families and younger audiences than I am Legend, which was a brooding sci-fi horror film3) The Hobbit has significantly less competition than I am Legend did. IaL in its 2nd weekend had National Treasure 2 opening in the mid-40s which took away a number of teens and adults. The Hobbit has rather middling competition this weekend with Jack Reacher and company expected to go no higher than mid-teens now based on tracking. Hobbit won't have real competition opening until the 25th.So with those three things in mind, how can you justify saying The Hobbit will have a similar Friday increase to I am Legend? All evidence indicates it will get a substantially better bump. Edited December 21, 2012 by 4815162342

[Dementeleus]

I think there's a chance it only gets IAL's boost... but that's still 80%, not a slight bump.

[baumer]

Sorry, but the Hobbit's WOM has not been stellar. There are plenty of people who like it and there are plenty who were bored to tears with it.300 is far from locked, in fact, I think it will miss 300. 250 is locked, but 300? Not so much.

[dashrendar44]

Look at most prequels and reboots(without the name Star ___) and the way TH is performing is completely in line. It's doing pretty much what I expected it to do.

That's not what WB expected though. (Performing like your regular prequel/reboot) Edited December 21, 2012 by dashrendar44

[fishstick]

As long as it doesn`t pass FOTR unadjusted. I`m giving up bringing down Shriekapoo because i`m content that it`s out of top 5. But FOTR becoming the lowest grossing movie in this series is unacceptable.

Edited December 21, 2012 by fishnets

[Elessar]

TH hasn't even been out a week. How can you compare it to the other films? Also, if TH merely follows IAL's pattern from here it gets close to 300m and IAL was not a family film. 300m is happening.

You have to look at other movies when predicting. These midweek days are clearly somewhat inflated, last week's Friday increases were already rather low, this week's are gonna be even lower.As for your 2nd point, really? Have you done a calculation? On a quick look, it doesn't seem so. IAL finished with about $250m, Hobbit is gaining very little per day bar opening day. Edited December 21, 2012 by Elessar

[4815162342]

You have to look at other movies when predicting. These midweek days are clearly somewhat inflated, last week's Friday increases were already rather low, this week's are gonna be even lower.

In 2007 with the exact same setup you describe (Alvin and the Chipmunks, Golden Compass, Enchanted all having inflated weekdays), I am Legend still increased 80% against direct competition from National Treasure 2 which did mid-40s business.So again I ask you, with all of the advantages The Hobbit has over I am Legend (particually that fact it has no competition really at all until the 25th), how will it not have a substantially better Friday and Saturday increase? Edited December 21, 2012 by 4815162342

[Accursed Arachnid!™]

You have to look at other movies when predicting. These midweek days are clearly somewhat inflated, last week's Friday increases were already rather low, this week's are gonna be even lower.As for your 2nd point, really? Have you done a calculation? On a quick look, it doesn't seem so. IAL finished with about $250m, Hobbit is gaining very little every day bar opening day.

It's at 10% more now...maintaining that it will reach 280. But it's a family type film that will get a much larger bump over the holidays than IAL did. And no, I don't look at films that have been out longer than another film when comparing. Maybe later in its run, but opening week films invariably drop harder day to day than holdovers. Better to look at films from past years which have opened at this time of year then adjust for larger Tues increases and Wed drops. I'm not exactly green at the box office projecting thing you know.

[baumer]

In 2007 with the exact same setup you describe (Alvin and the Chipmunks, Golden Compass, Enchanted all having inflated weekdays), I am Legend still increased 80% against direct competition from National Treasure 2 which did mid-40s business.So again I ask you, with all of the advantages The Hobbit has over I am Legend (particually that fact it has no competition really at all until the 25th), how will it not have a substantially better Friday and Saturday increase?

Because word is out that it's boring.

[Olive]

1 Life of Pi $708,870 14% 2,208 -738 $321 $72,356,244 4 Fox 2 The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn - Part 2 $553,435 12% 3,042 -604 $182 $279,005,734 5 Lionsgate / Summit

[Olive]

1 The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey $6,615,027 5%

[4815162342]

Because word is out that it's boring.

No, word is out that's entertaining and fun and a good time at the theater and that the critics who were mixed or negative were wrong.I can play this game too and I have more crowd reports on my side than yours. Edited December 21, 2012 by 4815162342

[Elessar]

But it's a family type film that will get a much larger bump over the holidays than IAL did.

People keep saying that but at least on OW, audiences skewed older and male.

And no, I don't look at films that have been out longer than another film when comparing. Maybe later in its run, but opening week films invariably drop harder day to day than holdovers.

Sure, they drop harder but they also don't increase better. Let's take Skyfall for instance, which i think also skews a little older and male. It increased 90% last Friday, i'd be surprised if it increases 90% again this Friday since its Thursday week-to-week drop will probably be only around 10% (just a guess based on the good Thursday numbers so far for other movies). If Skyfall increases less than 90%, i think Hobbit will follow suit (provided Skyfall's drop is not caused by theater loss).You have to look at other movies in terms of figuring out the current market situation. And current situation is that midweek days are clearly inflated.