kowhite Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 In the long run, I think WB still makes more from a trilogy (even though it wasn't their idea).Yup. Unless you can honestly argue that making only two films would've deliver substantially more revenue. But I don't think so myself, on some level I think we're just seeing what the appetite for this story on the screen is also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dementeleus Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 TH already has a lot of empty showings. I'm thinking Les Mis at 30+ million, Hobbit at 29, and Django at 27/28.I think they all go over 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riczhang Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Gosh, Tuesday can`t come soon enough. i`m desperate to see Les Mis and my man Leo as a bone fide villain.I'm seeing Les Mis tomorrow, and not sure when I'll see Django. I'm not particularly in the mood to spend 3 hours watching a western during Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kowhite Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Gosh, Tuesday can`t come soon enough. i`m desperate to see Les Mis and my man Leo as a bone fide villain.But which one first? I know I'm debating... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riczhang Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I think they all go over 30.So a significantly better drop than IAL for Hobbit? It needs the same drop as IAL just to hit 30 million. I'm thinking Hobbit will probably end up just short of 30 million. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Halba Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 (edited) it should drop over 40% next week, the wom is poori reckon they wouldve made more money(profit not revenue) if it was 1 big 200min film ala ROTK rather than split it up. studio greed bit em , serves em right Edited December 23, 2012 by Halba Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dementeleus Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 So a significantly better drop than IAL for Hobbit? It needs the same drop as IAL just to hit 30 million. I'm thinking Hobbit will probably end up just short of 30 million.I should probably wait until actuals, but I think it holds a tad better during the week and that gives it enough to eke past 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riczhang Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 it should drop over 40% next week, the wom is poorWOM isn't fantastic, but it's not that poor. Most films managed a less than 20% drop, and sometimes even a slight increase next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Marston Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I see the same thing happening right now with IM3 and MU.Don't see how Iron Man 3 is comparable to The Hobbit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fake Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 In the long run, I think WB still makes more from a trilogy (even though it wasn't their idea).Not sure they would get much more profit.Let's say:950M900M1000MSo 2.85B. Returns would be around 1.425B on 600m Budget and 350m P&A. $1.5 return for every dollar spent.If it were two movies, those two could have done 2.3B combined (1.1B+1.2B). 1.15B returns on 500m budget and 250m P&A. $1.53 return for every dollar spent.Plus the name of LOTR wouldn't have been tarnished with an average film. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fishstick Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I so hope TH doesn`t make $30 mio. I want competition to hammer it so that studios release real competition next year and freakin destroy Smaug. Les Mis is doing amazing in pre-sales OS, too bad they are waiting for wide release for January 11. That sucks because it would have taken audience from TH and TH now has a 2 weeks after holidays all to itself although I hope it nose-dives regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riczhang Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I so hope TH doesn`t make $30 mio. I want competition to hammer it so that studios release real competition next year and freakin destroy Smaug. Les Mis is doing amazing in pre-sales OS, too bad they are waiting for wide release for January 11. That sucks because it would have taken audience from TH and TH now has a 2 weeks after holidays all to itself although I hope it nose-dives regardless.They're waiting for Oscars for Les Mis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
htall90 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 But since it was one giant production, you can't separate that out artificially. One day they might be shooting scenes from Film 1, the next day they're shooting stuff from Film 2.Oh okay i did not know they filmed them at the same time i presumed they film one after the other. They should not of made 3 films peter jackson made one of the worst mistakes of recent box office history there. Also WB panic as they have no huge money spinners on the horizon after the end of harry potter and batman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dementeleus Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Not sure they would get much more profit. Let's say: 950M 900M 1000M So 2.85B. Returns would be around 1.425B on 600m Budget and 350m P&A. $1.5 return for every dollar spent. If it were two movies, those two could have done 2.3B combined (1.1B+1.2B). 1.15B returns on 500m budget and 250m P&A. $1.53 return for every dollar spent. Plus the name of LOTR wouldn't have been tarnished with an average film. I don't think WB particularly cares about this, and who's to say the 2 films would have dramatically higher critical reception? (I think it'd be higher, but I don't think it'd be LOTR-level). In terms of the ROA, It's hard to say because the budget numbers are such guesses, but of course home video, PPV, TV, etc all lean towards more profit from three rather than two movies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fake Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I should probably wait until actuals, but I think it holds a tad better during the week and that gives it enough to eke past 30.32M (-13%) is my prediction. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dementeleus Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 They should not of made 3 films peter jackson made one of the worst mistakes of recent box office history there.I don't think you can say that at all. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fake Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Don't see how Iron Man 3 is comparable to The HobbitIt has some similarities. Instead of "Goodwill from LOTR", it is "Goodwill from Avengers" this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4815162342 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Oh okay i did not know they filmed them at the same time i presumed they film one after the other. They should not of made 3 films peter jackson made one of the worst mistakes of recent box office history there. Also WB panic as they have no huge money spinners on the horizon after the end of harry potter and batman.Honestly the 3 film idea isn't terrible when you realize that because of the production post-LOTR, both Jackson and the studio felt the films needed to be reframed from the simple adventure depicted in the original book to the important prelude to the War of the Ring that LOTR, the appendices, etc reveal it to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kowhite Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Not sure they would get much more profit.Let's say:950M900M1000MSo 2.85B. Returns would be around 1.425B on 600m Budget and 350m P&A. $1.5 return for every dollar spent.If it were two movies, those two could have done 2.3B combined (1.1B+1.2B). 1.15B returns on 500m budget and 250m P&A. $1.53 return for every dollar spent.Plus the name of LOTR wouldn't have been tarnished with an average film.You are arguing they'll make $100M more with three films based on theatrical only. Of course, with a third film making those type of dollars...they now have a whole additional film to sell downstream, so you're talking hundreds of millions of dollars more on top of that $100M. Not sure how you can say hundreds of million of additional profit isn't much more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fishstick Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 32M (-13%) is my prediction.What is wrong with you? Why are you suddenly pro-Hobbit? I want you to be back to your TH Under ROTK self. I really don`t like this cheering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
