Christmas Day Numbers | Les Miserables: 18.1M | DU: 15M | The Hobbit: 11.3M | PG: 6.5M

[Fake]

I'm with you there, but it doesn't need to - it has more than 30mil headstart vs. TT. And the fact that Tuesday is higher than last Friday (and that against some very good openers) seems to indicate that at least it doesn't collapse.

But you are picking a completely wrong film for comparison. You are bound to get wrong projections.Anyway, let's see what your comparison says tomorrow. TTT increased 25% on 26th. Let's see how much TH1 increases.(If TH1 increases that much, 300m will be locked, I agree.)

[Michael Gary Scott]

There was a time I liked Avatar and Avengers. I really did. Now I don't give a fuck about any of them. Only to think about Avatar I want to kill myself for having bought the Bluray.

I only got avatar for the 3d which was good

[Fake]

No. Great for Skyfall but...

TDKR missed out on at least 20-30M domestically.

Skyfall will beat TDKR by more than 30m. So......

[riczhang]

It might be possible for it to finish with $150m.

Oh it's going much higher than 150.

[Fake]

Skyfall may trump Shriekapoo? OMG, YES! YES! MAKE IT SO!

It has a good chance.I'm hoping that it beats TF3 as well and finishes all-time #5.

[Chewy]

Les Mis is a huge crowd pleaser. Legs will be ginormous

[Fake]

Oh it's going much higher than 150.

I'm not sure about "much higher".

[BenedictL11]

Oh it's going much higher than 150.

The only musicals I can recall that had strong legs are Chicago, Mamma Mia, and Hairspray. Still, the strong WOM and lack of competition in January (most of the new relases will be R) might help it to make over $150M DOM.I hope it can make over $150M but $100M+ is already locked.

[bofan]

Les Mis over 200M DOM i say ))

[ChD]

The only musicals I can recall that had strong legs are Chicago, Mamma Mia, and Hairspray. Still, the strong WOM and lack of competition in January (most of the new relases will be R) might help it to make over $150M DOM.I hope it can make over $150M but $100M+ is already locked.

With a 6day Gross of $60M, $150 seems also locked.

[riczhang]

I'm thinking 200 for Les Mis, WOM will be excellent and that Cinemascore if A in every category is very promising. It's not just te targe audience that loves it. Oscar and Awards buzz will also sustain it throughout the entire January and into February.Probably will hit 100 million sometime next week.

Edited December 26, 2012 by riczhang

[Fake]

BTW did we get an LOP number yet?

[riczhang]

BTW did we get an LOP number yet?

Nikki has an estimate for it I think.

[ChD]

I'm thinking 200 for Les Mis, WOM will be excellent and that Cinemascore if A in every category is very promising. It's not just te targe audience that loves it. Oscar and Awards buzz will also sustain it throughout the entire January and into February.Probably will hit 100 million sometime next week.

$200M is very possible... Since this isn't a sequel or something, it isn't that front loaded as sequels. Whilst many sequels that opened on a Tuesday ended up with the total gross equally with x2 the 6 Day Gross, this might have a chance to make it x4 with some good word of mouth.Also, this has a shot of setting up a new record for most nominations for a movie (Oscar)

[narniadis]

Should pull at least 75 by Sunday night - would have to just implode and not recover to just make 60 for 6 days after 18m od

[ChD]

Should pull at least 75 by Sunday night - would have to just implode and not recover to just make 60 for 6 days after 18m od

Usually movies that open on a Tuesday drop around 50% every day until Friday.So... 18 + 9 + 4.5 (Might have better holds or steeper drops, depends) + I predict a 33m weekend...(The exact numbers of my prediction should be on my blog)

[Fake]

Nikki has an estimate for it I think.

Nikki's estimates are as good as useless.

[narniadis]

Not during the holiday though - average drops in 2007 were between 30 and 35% followed by about 10% on Thursday before minimal increases on Friday / Saturday - obviously as we have seen with hobbit 2007 isn't exact but it's the closest calendar we have to go on

[narniadis]

Usually movies that open on a Tuesday drop around 50% every day until Friday.So... 18 + 9 + 4.5 (Might have better holds or steeper drops, depends) + I predict a 33m weekend...(The exact numbers of my prediction should be on my blog)

And using your 4.5 it would be lucky to pull 18m for the whole weekend

[ChD]

And using your 4.5 it would be lucky to pull 18m for the whole weekend

It will have a $30M weekend... maybe not so steep drops as predicted, but still 6 Day Gross of 65-67M at tops... Not passing 70. Edited December 26, 2012 by ChD