ScareLol Posted June 13, 2019 Share Posted June 13, 2019 5 minutes ago, Sunny Max said: Even less than Hellboy .. woww horrible Hellboy sold 31 tickets. MIB sold 44 so it's a bit better (both are bad) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny Max Posted June 13, 2019 Share Posted June 13, 2019 (edited) 5 minutes ago, ScareLol said: Hellboy sold 31 tickets. MIB sold 44 so it's a bit better (both are bad) yeah in terms of tickets sold MIB Better .. but i was talking about your OW predictions ... Edited June 13, 2019 by Sunny Max 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScareLol Posted June 13, 2019 Share Posted June 13, 2019 4 minutes ago, Sunny Max said: yeah in terms of tickets sold MIB Better .. but i was talking about your OW predictions ... I said 600-700K so it's higher than Hellboy (504K) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny Max Posted June 13, 2019 Share Posted June 13, 2019 Just now, ScareLol said: I said 600-700K so it's higher than Hellboy (504K) Yeah my bad ... but still its very less ... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peludo Posted June 14, 2019 Share Posted June 14, 2019 14 hours ago, Sunny Max said: Ok Fine .. i do ask a lot questions from you ... hope you dont mind .. can you tell me the reason why attendance is been low as compare to 15-20 years ago .. i mean market always grow with the passage of time .. Ask what you want I will try to answer. This is just my perception, it is not necessarily the truth. IMO, there are 2 main reasons: first of all is 2008 economical collapse. Before that, there was a low unemployment rate, about 8%, what maybe is not special for many countries but in Spain was the lowest rate in the whole democratic period (since 1978). When crisis hit us, the unemployment rate reached nearly 26% (2012-2013). Concerning market behaviour, I think these data are very clear: Yearly admissions in Spain: 2000: 135.4 2001: 146.8 2002: 140.7 2003: 137.5 2004: 143.9 million 2005: 127.7 (beginning of massive downloads) 2006: 121.7 2007: 116.9 2008: 107.8 2009: 110.0 2010: 101.6 2011: 98.3 2012: 94.2 2013: 78.7 (peak of unemployment) 2014: 88.0 2015: 96.1 2016: 101.8 2017: 99.8 2018: 97.7 (estimated) People are coming back to theaters since the worst moment of the crisis. We have basically recovered the 100 million level. But it is still far from early 00s. What happened? what I think it is the second reason: to see films at home. There is a drop from 2005, when downloads started to rise. Spain has downloaded A LOT (by 2014, Spain was the 5th country in the world with more downloads). And now there is craziness about TV at home (Netflix, HBO, Amazon, ...) so people prefer to see contents at home instead at theaters, so attendance drops or at very least, it is not able to reach early 00s level. And you say that every market tend to rise. I think that is a bit tricky. You have to take into account more factors. There are developing markets which have room for growth. I have not updated data, but for example, Brazil is probably already over 200 million admissions per year. But its population is 209 million, so we are talking about 1 ticket per person and year. Spain has 46 million inhabitants, so we go more than 2 times per year to see films. Concerning inflation, Spain tickets are flat since 2010, when it was €6.52. Right now, it is about €6.50 (we have been under €6 during this period). And there is another important factor: the population is not growing and it is becoming older and older. There are more deaths than births, and the more aged population is growing while the young population is decreasing. This does not help to films that are oriented to young people like CBMs, which use to be the biggest films worldwide. 7 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny Max Posted June 14, 2019 Share Posted June 14, 2019 1 hour ago, peludo said: Ask what you want I will try to answer. This is just my perception, it is not necessarily the truth. IMO, there are 2 main reasons: first of all is 2008 economical collapse. Before that, there was a low unemployment rate, about 8%, what maybe is not special for many countries but in Spain was the lowest rate in the whole democratic period (since 1978). When crisis hit us, the unemployment rate reached nearly 26% (2012-2013). Concerning market behaviour, I think these data are very clear: Yearly admissions in Spain: 2000: 135.4 2001: 146.8 2002: 140.7 2003: 137.5 2004: 143.9 million 2005: 127.7 (beginning of massive downloads) 2006: 121.7 2007: 116.9 2008: 107.8 2009: 110.0 2010: 101.6 2011: 98.3 2012: 94.2 2013: 78.7 (peak of unemployment) 2014: 88.0 2015: 96.1 2016: 101.8 2017: 99.8 2018: 97.7 (estimated) People are coming back to theaters since the worst moment of the crisis. We have basically recovered the 100 million level. But it is still far from early 00s. What happened? what I think it is the second reason: to see films at home. There is a drop from 2005, when downloads started to rise. Spain has downloaded A LOT (by 2014, Spain was the 5th country in the world with more downloads). And now there is craziness about TV at home (Netflix, HBO, Amazon, ...) so people prefer to see contents at home instead at theaters, so attendance drops or at very least, it is not able to reach early 00s level. And you say that every market tend to rise. I think that is a bit tricky. You have to take into account more factors. There are developing markets which have room for growth. I have not updated data, but for example, Brazil is probably already over 200 million admissions per year. But its population is 209 million, so we are talking about 1 ticket per person and year. Spain has 46 million inhabitants, so we go more than 2 times per year to see films. Concerning inflation, Spain tickets are flat since 2010, when it was €6.52. Right now, it is about €6.50 (we have been under €6 during this period). And there is another important factor: the population is not growing and it is becoming older and older. There are more deaths than births, and the more aged population is growing while the young population is decreasing. This does not help to films that are oriented to young people like CBMs, which use to be the biggest films worldwide. Detailed explanation ... Thank you ... thnxx A Lot .. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScareLol Posted June 14, 2019 Share Posted June 14, 2019 Saw MiB today and the film was bad as fuck. People didn't laugh at all through the film. The show was full tho (in a deluxe cinema) 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScareLol Posted June 15, 2019 Share Posted June 15, 2019 MiB debuts at #2 and Henri Pick debuts at #5 (it was released in 115 cinemas). No signs of Kin and Tolkien (they were released on 79 and 70 cinemas) 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny Max Posted June 15, 2019 Share Posted June 15, 2019 (edited) hmmm decent start of MIB ... Edited June 15, 2019 by Sunny Max 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScareLol Posted June 16, 2019 Share Posted June 16, 2019 Aladdin grosses $3.4M through the entire week. Let's see the weekend numbers tomorrow 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peludo Posted June 17, 2019 Share Posted June 17, 2019 16 hours ago, ScareLol said: Aladdin grosses $3.4M through the entire week. Let's see the weekend numbers tomorrow Aladdin: €1.5m weekend. It means 40% drop relative to previous weekend. Weekdays have been higher than I had thought. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScareLol Posted June 17, 2019 Share Posted June 17, 2019 Terrible weekend. MiB: International flops with less than a million 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny Max Posted June 17, 2019 Share Posted June 17, 2019 6 minutes ago, ScareLol said: Terrible weekend. MiB: International flops with less than a million Tragic numbers ... MIB disaster .. 😕 Aladdin did well i think ... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peludo Posted June 19, 2019 Share Posted June 19, 2019 June 14th-16th: First of all, the Aladdin's cume is estimated. The number reported is not correct. On Sunday it was reported $20.0m. Applying a XR 1.12, we get the €17.857m figure I am saying. Aladdin is the first film of the year ranking #1 during 4 weekends in a row, and the first since Aquaman. Its 4th weekend is on par to Jungle Book (€1.6m) and Dumbo (€1.4m). Jungle Book did €4m more since this point and Dumbo €3m. Let's say Aladdin does €3.5m. It would finish with €21.3m and around 4 million admissions. MIB fails. The previous films did: MIB: €8,662,463 (2,631,375 admissions) MIB2: €11,056,581 (2,499,413) MIB3: €7,275,334 (1,125,447) MIB International seems headed to 2.5 or 3 million. Dark Phoenix drops heavily. It has made a 2nd weekend similar to 3rd of Apocalypse (€418k). Apocalypse did €900k more since that point, so a €3m total for Dark Phoenix seems probable. Apocalypse did €4.85m. Rocketman has a normal drop. Maybe €2.5m total. EG could barely reach the €29m barrier, but that's all. Two Towers is safe at #9 all time And to mention that "Mia et le lion blanc" is leaving the top 25 with a x7.5 multiplier. 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScareLol Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 (edited) Pre-sales for tomorrow at my cinema with 4 new releases: Godzilla: KOTM (4 Shows): 7 tickets sold Just horrible, the comps suggest 120-150K but I don't think that's possible. Same numbers as MiB would be good but I don't see it. Godzilla did 900K in 2014 so a 40% drop is expected. 550K is my prediction La Influencia (5 Shows): 0 tickets sold Spanish horror flick distributed by Sony. Last year, Sony released El Pacto, another horror film on August and it grossed 447K on its first weekend. Don't see this film repeating those numbers without big names so 250K is my prediction but it could go lower Tell It To The Bees (4 Shows): 0 tickets sold Out of Top 10 - Small release Toy Story 4 (20 Shows): 485 tickets sold Film Tickets OW Comp Dumbo 153 3.47M 11M HTTYD3 124 2.47M 9.66M Aladdin 379 4.76M 6.09M This is looking pretty good, isn't it? This range is big so it's a bit messed up. Aladdin numbers are good so I say 5.5M+ for the first weekend. Toy Story 3 was released on a Wednesday and it grossed 6.3M so let's see how it plays out. The second best OW of the year is in play with this (only behind Avengers: Endgame) Edited June 20, 2019 by ScareLol 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny Max Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 6 minutes ago, ScareLol said: Pre-sales for tomorrow at my cinema with 4 new releases: Godzilla: KOTM (4 Shows): 7 tickets sold Just horrible, the comps suggest 120-150K but I don't think that's possible. Same numbers as MiB would be good but I don't see it. Godzilla did 900K in 2014 so a 40% drop is expected. 550K is my prediction La Influencia (5 Shows): 0 tickets sold Spanish horror flick distributed by Sony. Last year, Sony released El Pacto, another horror film on August and it grossed 447K on its first weekend. Don't see this film repeating those numbers without big names so 250K is my prediction but it could go lower Tell It To The Bees (4 Shows): 0 tickets sold Out of Top 10 - Small release Toy Story 4 (20 Shows): 485 tickets sold Film Tickets OW Comp Dumbo 153 3.47M 11M HTTYD3 124 2.47M 9.66M Aladdin 379 4.76M 6.09M This is looking pretty good, isn't it? This range is big so it's a bit messed up. Aladdin numbers are good so I say 5.5M+ for the first weekend. Toy Story 3 was released on a Wednesday and it grossed 6.3M so let's see how it plays out. The second best gross first weekend is in play with this (only behind Avengers: Endgame) So 2nd best OW for TS4 is on cards .... impressive .. Can you tell me one thing ... what is this COMP ??? Are these life time numbers ? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScareLol Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 1 minute ago, Sunny Max said: So 2nd best OW for TS4 is on cards .... impressive .. Can you tell me one thing ... what is this COMP ??? Are these life time numbers ? Comp is the comparison with the other films. It's the OW with the amount of tickets sold at my theatre of previous films comparing with the film we are predicting 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny Max Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 1 minute ago, ScareLol said: Comp is the comparison with the other films. It's the OW with the amount of tickets sold at my theatre of previous films comparing with the film we are predicting Ohh .. fine .. i was also thinking the same .. it must be your theater data .. thank you friend ... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScareLol Posted June 22, 2019 Share Posted June 22, 2019 As expected, Toy Story debuts at #1. Godzilla at #3 and La Influencia at #5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny Max Posted June 22, 2019 Share Posted June 22, 2019 3 hours ago, ScareLol said: As expected, Toy Story debuts at #1. Godzilla at #3 and La Influencia at #5 429 Cinemas for TS4 across Spain .... could movie hit 4 M EURs in OW ... ??? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
.thumb.jpg.e012939110d2c4eb58cc16297e048d38.jpg)
