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2 hours ago, terrestrial said:
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FFH should outgross "Lo dejo cuando quiera". Then, comes TLK, which can even beat Avengers. And Pets 2 can make 15-20 million. So 7 out 8 of top films of the year would be from Disney until July-August... how can we qualify this?

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39 minutes ago, peludo said:

FFH should outgross "Lo dejo cuando quiera". Then, comes TLK, which can even beat Avengers. And Pets 2 can make 15-20 million. So 7 out 8 of top films of the year would be from Disney until July-August... how can we qualify this?

It's an insane year for Disney in Spain.

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Weekend provisional

 

1. Spider-man: Far from home: €3.8m (Homecoming opened to €2.8m)

2. Toy Story 4: €1.6m (-33%)

3. Yesterday: €0.8m

4. Aladdin: €0.4m (-40%)

5. Los Japón: €0.4m (-40%)

 

Very good jump for Spidey relative to Homecoming. However, it is behind Captain Marvel, which opened to €4.1m. Anyway, MCU is in a higher level than it used to.

 

The 3rd weekend of Toy Story 4 is better than Incredibles 2's (€1.33m) and Dory's (€1.2m). The cume should already be close to €13m, barely behind I2 at the same point (€13.5m). It should cross the €20m barrier at the end. Another Pixar success in Spain.

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July 5th-7th:

 

FSkVOBS.jpg

 

As we said on Monday, Spidey opens slightly worse than Captain Marvel (€4.1m) but way better than Homecoming (€2.8m).

 

Homecoming finished with €9,922,636 (1,752,991), what means a x3.52 multiplier.

Captain Marvel did €12,769,792 (2,083,569). That implies a x3.09 multiplier.

 

That range of multipliers imply a 12.36-14.08 million total. Let's say for the moment €13m final, waiting for TLK impact.

 

TS4 drops a mere 33%. As we said on Monday, it is a 24% better than I2 and a 37% better than Dory.

 

Incredibles 2 did €7.6m (x5.7 multiplier from 3rd weekend figure) from this point, and Dory another €5.7m (x4.75).

 

If TS4 makes the Dory multiplier from now, it would finish with €20.5m

If TS4 makes the I2 multiplier from now, it would finish with €22.1m

 

I would choose the low end with TLK and Pets 2 coming.

 

Good enough opening for Yesterday. It should be able to make over €5m.

 

Aladdin has already reached the original admissions amount (4.108 million). I think it can land between 23 and 24 million. Astonishing performance.

 

It seems that Endgame seems will finally be able to reach the €29m figure.

 

Matrix data just show what it has done during the re-release. The total data are:

€10,825,459

2,957,415 admissions

 

Concerning TLK presales, it is starting to pick up. I will post some numbers later.

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TLK presales (Kinépolis Madrid):

 

Thursday 18 (OD)

14 showtimes

0 sellouts (1 showtime at 87%)

509 tickets sold / 6,610 total = 7.70%

 

4-day Weekend

47 showtimes

0 sellouts

1,302 tickets sold / 25,660 total = 5.07%

 

It has been selling between 50 and 90 tickets (for the whole 4-day weekend) from the beginning of presales (June 23rd). But since Tuesday it has started to pick up:

Tuesday: 102 tickets

Wednesday: 143 tickets

Thursday: 189 tickets

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Presales for my theater were 0 for all the films released today.

 

- Anabelle Comes Home could debut with 1M, similar to La Llorona earlier this year.

 

- Spanish comedy Lo Nunca Visto could do 150K

 

- El Cuento de las Comadrejas, Serenity and Wild Rose could enter the low Top 10

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On 7/12/2019 at 3:15 AM, peludo said:

TLK presales (Kinépolis Madrid):

 

Thursday 18 (OD)

14 showtimes

0 sellouts (1 showtime at 87%)

509 tickets sold / 6,610 total = 7.70%

 

4-day Weekend

47 showtimes

0 sellouts

1,302 tickets sold / 25,660 total = 5.07%

 

It has been selling between 50 and 90 tickets (for the whole 4-day weekend) from the beginning of presales (June 23rd). But since Tuesday it has started to pick up:

Tuesday: 102 tickets

Wednesday: 143 tickets

Thursday: 189 tickets

 

Any comps to other films?

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1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Have lots of theaters closed last decade. How did avatar gross so much in Spain. None of the movies seem to gross even half that number.

Simple: 3D doping

 

2009 - Avatar: 9.5 million admissions - €77m

2014 - Ocho apellidos vascos (Spanish affair): 9.3 million admissions - €55m

 

Avatar was of course a phenomenon. It is the second most attended film ever (Titanic is the first). Just the mentioned "Spanish affair" has approached to Avatar in terms of admissions. If I remember well, since 2009, just The Impossible (6.1m), Spanish affair 2 (5.6m) and TFA (5m) have reached the 5 million admissions figure, way behind than Avatar's 9.5 million.

 

Finally, add that the average ticket price it had is way higher than today average ticket price:

 

Avatar avg ticket: €8.10

2019 avg ticket: €6.45

 

I do not know if Avatar will be beaten in next 20 years. It DOUBLED the previous record: Titanic's €38m (today at €41m after the 2012 re-release).

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46 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

Any comps to other films?

I will track it in a couple of hours and I will compare to Far from home (I do not have tracked more films, beyond 2 or 3 last days of Endgame, which was at another level of hype).

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4 hours ago, VenomXXR said:

 

Any comps to other films?

5 days to go:

 

Spider-man: Far from home: 930 tickets

Friday: 637

Saturday: 214

Sunday: 79

 

The Lion King: 1,741 tickets

Thursday: 736

Friday: 452

Saturday: 356

Sunday: 197

 

It is hard to compare since the OD is not the same day, but even after the OD's burnt demand, the Friday-Sunday period of TLK is higher than Spidey's (1,005 vs 930).

 

For the record, FFH opened to €4m.

 

On the other side, Endgame opened on Thursday too. Presales of both Thursday and Friday were about 7,000 tickets each. But the anticipation was enormous since everybody was anxious to know what happened in the film. TLK does not have that factor because everyone already know the story, so it will not be so frontloaded.

Edited by peludo
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