Hong Kong Hong Kong Box Office

[Bluebomb]

Thursday adm. (so far)   January 28 Rank Movie LW TW % chg 1 Dirty Grandpa 861 1,317 +53.0% 2 House of Wolves 771 1,005 +30.4% 3 The Revenant 1,239 760 -38.7% 4 Star Wars: The Force Awakens 972 735 -24.4% 5 The Big Short 813 586 -27.9% 6 Survivor -- 505 -- 7 Ten Years 328 460 +40.2% 8 Ip Man 3 510 458 -10.2% 9 The Last Women Standing -- 297 -- 10 The 5th Wave 766 186 -75.7% Strong for Dirty Grandpa. Out of all holdovers, this will be the most likely to increase from last weekend. Good for House of Wolves. Just OK for Revenant with no new big openers. Not all that great for Star Wars 7 with IMAX duplicates and IMAX front row seats counted as sold in there. If you strip those out, it likely fell 40-50% in admissions from last Thursday's pre-sales.

[Bluebomb]

	Thursday			January 28
Rank	Movie	LW	TW	% chg
1	Dirty Grandpa	4,672	5,068	+8.5%
2	House of Wolves	5,662	4,180	-26.2%
3	The Revenant	4,528	2,872	-36.6%
4	The Big Short	2,692	2,077	-22.8%
5	Ip Man 3	2,947	2,044	-30.6%
6	Survivor	--	1,478	--
7	Star Wars: The Force Awakens	1,324	1,017	-23.2%
8	Ten Years	1,588	991	-37.6%
9	The Last Women Standing	--	811	--
10	The 5th Wave	2,895	732	-74.7%

The lack of any solid openers allowed 7/8 holdovers to drop less than 39%. Dirty Grandpa was the only film to increase. Backed by strong word of mouth, it was one of only 3 films to increase from its Wednesday admissions and one of only 2 films to increase from both its Monday and Wednesday admissions. House of Wolves had a very good hold but in terms of trends, it has been running behind Dirty Grandpa for most of this week. The Revenant saw a slightly larger decline this week but overall, its box office has been a big success. The Big Short is making a come back after its disappointing opening weekend as it was the only other film besides Dirty Grandpa to increase from its Monday and Wednesday admissions. Ip Man 3 had a nice hold but its walk-ins are taking a hit with other films out.

Sometime later this week, I will post my predictions and thoughts on Deadpool which comes out in less than 2 weeks (February 9).

[Bluebomb]

	Friday adm.	(so far)			January 29
Rank	Movie	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Dirty Grandpa	1,762	2,119	+20.3%	+60.9%
2	The Big Short	1,510	1,330	-11.9%	+127.0%
3	The Revenant	2,362	1,218	-48.4%	+60.3%
4	House of Wolves	1,154	991	-14.1%	-1.4%
5	Star Wars: The Force Awakens	1,254	874	-30.3%	+18.9%
6	Ten Years	1,173	845	-28.0%	+83.7%
7	Ip Man 3	1,153	658	-42.9%	+43.7%
8	Survivor	--	601	--	+19.0%
9	The Last Women Standing	--	388	--	+30.6%
10	The 5th Wave	1,203	257	-78.6%	+38.2%

Strong for Dirty Grandpa. Excellent increase for The Big Short. It was the only holdover that did better than its Thursday pre-sales hold with its Friday pre-sales hold. Not great for Revenant. Ouch for House of Wolves.

 

[Bluebomb]

		Thursday Actuals						January 28
LW	TW	Movie	Last Thu. (USD)	Thu. (USD)	% chg	Theaters	Days	Total
1	1	Dirty Grandpa	$57,552	$57,847	+0.5%	35	8	$646,606
2	2	House of Wolves	$56,528	$43,707	-22.7%	31	8	$533,577
3	3	The Revenant	$54,569	$35,612	-34.7%	35	21	$2,108,053
4	4	Ip Man 3	$33,252	$22,688	-31.8%	35	36	$7,274,505
5	5	The Big Short	$31,973	$21,853	-31.7%	26	8	$393,363
7	6	Ten Years	$16,626	$13,034	-21.6%	4	43	$642,750
--	7	Survivor	--	$12,855	--	24	1	$12,855
--	8	The Last Woman Standing	--	$8,355	--	14	1	$8,355
6	9	The 5th Wave	$28,136	$7,466	-73.5%	30	15	$1,091,389
RE	10	Star Wars: The Force Awakens	--	$5,796	--	19	43	$10,412,606

Very good for Dirty Grandpa. The rest of the top 5 had decent to good holds. Ten Years did very well even with two theaters dropping it this week. Survivor and The Last Woman Standing did very poor numbers. Abysmal for The 5th Wave. Star Wars 7 re-enters the top 10 after missing it last Thursday. Just a note about Star Wars 7. Though the admissions site lists it at #7 with over 1,000 admissions, it only sold around 400 tickets on Thursday according to Ryan's blog which is why it only made enough to grab the #10 slot.
 

	Friday				January 29
Rank	Movie	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Dirty Grandpa	7,420	7,651	+3.1%	+51.0%
2	House of Wolves	5,904	5,276	-10.6%	+26.2%
3	The Revenant	7,057	4,518	-36.0%	+57.3%
4	The Big Short	4,555	3,923	-13.9%	+88.9%
5	Ip Man 3	3,925	2,696	-31.3%	+31.9%
6	Survivor	--	1,997	--	+35.1%
7	Ten Years	2,279	1,722	-24.4%	+73.8%
8	Star Wars: The Force Awakens	1,934	1,301	-32.7%	+27.9%
9	The Last Woman Standing	--	997	--	+22.9%
10	The 5th Wave	3,407	996	-70.8%	+36.1%

Good increase for Dirty Grandpa. Solid holds for House of Wolves and The Big Short. Once again, The Big Short is proving to be a Friday movie as it has the best Friday increase 2 weeks in a row. Not bad for Revenant and Ip Man 3.

The 35th HK Film Awards nominations were announced earlier and 2/5 films were nominated for Best Picture, Director and Screenplay while 4/5 films were nominated for Best Picture and Best Director. The only BP nominee that did not receive a Director or Screenplay nomination was Ten Years. This might have an effect on admissions this weekend.

Best Picture
Ten Years
Little Big Master
The Taking of Tiger Mountain
Port of Call
Ip Man 3

Rest of the nominations

最佳導演
Best Director


關信輝（五個小孩的校長）
Adrian Kwan Shun Fai (Little Big Master)
許爾冬陞（我是路人甲）
Derek Yee Tung Sing (I Am Somebody)
徐克（智取威虎山）
Tsui Hark (The Taking Of Tiger Mountain)
葉偉信（葉問3）
Yip wai Shun (Ip Man 3)
翁子光（踏血尋梅）
Philip Yung Tsz Kwong (Port Of Call)


最佳編劇
Best Screenplay


關信輝、張佩瓊（五個小孩的校長）
Adrian Kwan Shun Fai, Hannah Chang (Little Big Master)
爾冬陞（我是路人甲）
Derek Yee Tung Sing (I Am Somebody)
陳心遙、黃修平（哪一天我們會飛）
Saville Chan, Adam Wong (She Remebers, He Forgets)
劉浩良（衝鋒車）
Lau Ho Leung (Two Thumbs Up)
翁子光（踏血尋梅）
Philip Yung Tsz Kwong (Port Of Call)

最佳男主角
Best Actor


劉德華（失孤）Andy Lau Tak Wah (Lost And Love)
張家輝（陀地驅魔人）Nick Cheung Ka Fai (Keeper Of Darkness)
梁家輝（智取威虎山）Tony Leung Ka Fai (The Taking Of Tiger Mountain)
張學友（暗色天堂）Jacky Cheung (Heaven In The Dark)
郭富城（踏血尋梅）Aaron Kwok (Port Of Call)


最佳女主角
Best Actress


湯唯（三城記）Tang Wei (A Tale Of Three Cities)
楊千嬅（五個小孩的校長）Miriam Yeung (Little Big Master)
張艾嘉（華麗上班族）Sylvia Chang (Office)
林嘉欣（暗色天堂）Karena Lam (Heaven In The Dark)
春夏（踏血尋梅）Jessie Li (Port Of Call)


最佳男配角
Best Supporting Actor


林敏聰（全力扣殺）Andrew Lam (Full Strike)
張繼聰（陀地驅魔人）Louis Cheung (Keeper Of Darkness)
(The Midnight After)
張晉（殺破狼II）Zhang Jin (SPL 2 : A Time For Consequences)
張晉（葉問3）Zhang Jin (Ip Man 3)
白只（踏血尋梅）Michael Ning (Port Of Call)


最佳女配角
Best Supporting Actress


秦海璐（三城記）Qin Hailu (A Tale Of Three Cities)
吳浣儀（五個小孩的校長）Anna Ng (Little Big Master)
文詠珊（赤道）Janice Man (Helios)
李心潔（念念）Lee Sinje (Murmur Of The Hearts)
金燕玲（踏血尋梅）Elaine Jin (Port Of Call)


最佳新演員
Best New Performer


雷琛瑜（死開啲啦）J. Arie (Get Outta Here)
蔡思貝（陀地驅魔人）Sisley Choi (Keeper Of Darkness)
蘇麗珊（哪一天我們會飛）Cecilia So (She Remebers, He Forgets)
白只（踏血尋梅）Michael Ning (Port Of Call)
春夏（踏血尋梅）Jessie Li (Port Of Call)


最佳攝影
Best Cinematography


王昱（三城記）Wang Yu (A Tale Of Three Cities)
陳楚強（破風）Pakie Chan (To The Fore)
蔡崇輝（智取威虎山）Choi Sung Fai (The Taking Of Tiger Mountain)
謝忠道（葉問3）Tse Chung To (Ip Man 3)
杜可風（踏血尋梅）Christopher Doyle (Port Of Call)


最佳剪接
Best Film Editing


陳祺合、潘雄耀、彭正熙（破風）
Chan Ki Hop, Poon Hung Yiu, Pang Ching Hei (To The Fore)
David Richardson（殺破狼II）(SPL 2 : A Time For Consequences)
于柏楊（智取威虎山）Yu Bai Yang (The Taking Of Tiger Mountain)
張嘉輝（葉問3）Cheung Ka Fai (Ip Man 3)
廖慶松、黃海、翁子光、朱嘉逸（踏血尋梅）
Liao Ching Sung, Wong Hoi, Philip Yung Tsz Kwong, Chu Ka Yat (Port Of Call)


最佳美術指導
Best Art Direction


葉錦添、張英華（三城記）Tim Yip, James Cheung (A Tale Of Three Cities)
馬光榮（太平輪：驚濤摯愛）Horace Ma Kwong Wing (The Crossing II)
種田陽平、李健威（捉妖記）Yohei Taneda, Lee Kin Wai (Monster Hunt)
易振洲（智取威虎山）Yi Zhen Zhou (The Taking Of Tiger Mountain)
張叔平、邱偉明（華麗上班族）William Chang Suk Ping, Yau Wai Ming (Office)


最佳服裝造型設計
Best Costume &
Make UpDesign


葉錦添、馮君孟（三城記）Tim Yip, William Fung (A Tale Of Three Cities)
陳同勳（太平輪：驚濤摯愛）Chen Tongxun (The Crossing II)
(The Monkey King)
奚仲文（捉妖記）Yee Chung Man (Monster Hunt)
權裕辰（智取威虎山）Kwon Yoojin (The Taking Of Tigr Mountain)
張叔平、呂鳳珊（華麗上班族）William Chang Suk Ping, Lui Fung Shan (Office)


最佳動作設計
Best Action
Choreography


成龍、成家班（天將雄師）Jackie Chan, JC Stunt Team (Dragon Blade)
錢嘉樂（赤道）Chin Ka Lok (Helios)
李忠志（殺破狼II）Li Chung Chi (SPL 2 : A Time For Consequences)
元彬（智取威虎山）Yuen Bun (The Taking Of Tiger Mountain)
袁和平（葉問3）Yuen Wo Ping (Ip Man 3)


最佳原創電影音樂
Best Original Film Score


岩代太郎（太平輪：驚濤摯愛）Taro Iwashiro (The Crossing II)
戴偉（哪一天我們會飛）Day Tai (She Remembers, He Forgets)
胡偉立（智取威虎山）Wu Wai Lap (The Taking Of Tiger Mountain)
羅大佑、陳輝陽（華麗上班族）Dayu Lo, Chan Fai Young (Office)
丁可（踏血尋梅）Ding Ke (Port Of Call)


最佳原創電影歌曲
Best Original Film Song


穿越漩渦（太平輪：驚濤摯愛）Vortex (The Crossing II)
作曲Composer：羅大佑Dayu Lo
填詞Lyric：林夕Lin Xi
主唱Sung by：羅大佑Dayu Lo

給王家欣（王家欣）For Wong Ka Yan (Wong Ka Yan)
作曲Composer：劉偉恒Benny Lau
填詞Lyric：陳詠謙Chan Wing Him
主唱Sung by：黃又南Wong You Nam

念念（念念）Murmur Of The Hearts (Murmur Of The Hearts)
作曲Composer：陳建騏Chen Chien-Chen
填詞Lyric：黃婷、陳建騏Huang Ting, Chen Chien-Chen
主唱Sung by：劉若英Rene Liu

差一點我們會飛（哪一天我們會飛）We Almost Fly (She Remembers, He Forgets)
作曲Composer：戴偉Day Tai
填詞Lyric：陳心遙Saville Chan
主唱Sung by：黃淑蔓Feanna Wong

漆黑的海上（踏血尋梅）Darkness On The Sea (Port Of Call)
作曲Composer：丁可Ding Ke
填詞Lyric：丁可Ding Ke
主唱Sung by：丁可Ding Ke


最佳音響效果
Best Sound Design


曾景祥、李耀強（陀地驅魔人）
Kinson Tsang & George Lee Yiu Keung (Keeper Of Darkness)
曾景祥、李耀強、姚俊軒（捉妖記）
Kinson Tsang, George Lee Yiu Keung, Yiu Chun Hin (Monster Hunt)
曾景祥、李耀強、姚俊軒（智取威虎山）
Kinson Tsang, George Lee Yiu Keung, Yiu Chun Hin (The Taking Of Tiger Mountain)
David Richardson、杜篤之、吳書瑤（華麗上班族）
David Richardson, Tu Duu-Shih, Wu Shu Yao (Office)
曾景祥、姚俊軒（葉問3）Kinson Tsang, Yiu Chun Hin (Ip Man 3)


最佳視覺效果
Best Visual Effects


伊諾、黎子飛（陀地驅魔人）Enoch Chan, Felix Lai Tsz Fai (Keeper Of Darknes)
Jason Snell、潘國瑜、湯冰冰（捉妖記）
Jason Snell, Ellen Poon, Tang Bingbing (Monster Hunt)
金旭（智取威虎山）Wook Kim (The Taking Of Tiger Mountain)
羅偉豪、張展榮（華麗上班族）Ken Law Wai Ho, Tommy Hellowing (Office)
梁偉民、余國亮、林嘉樂（葉問3）
Raymond Leung Wai Man, Yee Kwok Leung, Garrett K Lam (Ip Man 3)


新晉導演
Best New Director


張家輝（陀地驅魔人）Nick Cheung Ka Fai (Keeper Of Darkness)
許誠毅（捉妖記）Raman Hui (Monster Hunt)
劉浩良（衝鋒車）Lau Ho Leung (Two Thumbs Up)


最佳兩岸華語電影
Best Film From Mainland
And Taiwan


山河故人Mountains May Depart
我的少女時代Our Times
剌客聶隱娘The Assassin
狼圖騰Wolf Totem
推拿Blind Massage

 

Edited January 29, 2016 by Bluebomb

[Ay72998]

How is ip man 3 doing?   Any new updates?  What is its final going to be? Still around 58m HK?

[Bluebomb]

	Saturday adm.	(so far)			January 30
Rank	Movie	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Dirty Grandpa	3,219	2,819	-12.4%	+33.0%
2	Ten Years	2,622	2,429	-7.4%	+187.5%
3	The Revenant	4,138	1,998	-51.7%	+64.0%
4	The Big Short	2,811	1,859	-33.9%	+39.8%
5	House of Wolves	2,167	1,595	-26.4%	+60.9%
6	Star Wars: The Force Awakens	1,526	1,054	-30.9%	+20.6%
7	Ip Man 3	1,854	980	-47.1%	+48.9%
8	Survivor	--	813	--	+35.3%
9	The Last Woman Standing	--	460	--	+18.6%
10	All's Well Ends Well (Extended)	--	419	--	--

Very good hold for Dirty Grandpa. The reason why Ten Years had a gigantic increase on Saturday is because Metroplex moved Ten Years into its biggest theater, which is 3x larger than its 2nd biggest theater. This would explain why it tripled its pre-sales on Saturday. Meh for Revenant. Good holds for Big Short/House of Wolves.

[TigerPaw]

@Bluebomb
How much of an impact does HK Film awards have on Box Office holdovers, will it work like a charm just like how Oscar nominations help Revenant?

It came a little too late though, Ip Man 3 will probably be slaughtered in terms of screens and showings from Next Thursday onwards due to CNY releases. 

PS: A little surprised that Donnie did not get a nod in terms of nomination for Best Actor, but I have to admit the list of best actors this round is a very competitive one. 

[Bluebomb]

18 hours ago, Ay72998 said:

How is ip man 3 doing?   Any new updates?  What is its final going to be? Still around 58m HK?

It will be answered below.

 

11 hours ago, TigerPaw said:

@Bluebomb
How much of an impact does HK Film awards have on Box Office holdovers, will it work like a charm just like how Oscar nominations help Revenant?

It came a little too late though, Ip Man 3 will probably be slaughtered in terms of screens and showings from Next Thursday onwards due to CNY releases. 

PS: A little surprised that Donnie did not get a nod in terms of nomination for Best Actor, but I have to admit the list of best actors this round is a very competitive one. 

Zero because usually all the best picture films are gone from theaters but some theater chains will hold a screening or two once the awards rolls around in April. For Ip Man 3, the nominations did not do a thing to its box office on Saturday. I'm also surprised that he wasn't nominated but that list for Best Actor, they are all top actors so yeah, I can understand why he was cut.

 

	Saturday				January 30
Rank	Movie	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Dirty Grandpa	12,123	11,436	-5.7%	+49.5%
2	House of Wolves	10,276	7,913	-23.0%	+50.0%
3	The Revenant	12,723	7,387	-41.9%	+63.5%
4	The Big Short	8,074	6,435	-20.3%	+64.0%
5	Ip Man 3	6,150	3,883	-36.9%	+44.0%
6	Survivor	--	2,989	--	+49.7%
7	Ten Years	2,959	2,949	-0.3%	+71.3%
8	Star Wars: The Force Awakens	2,801	2,024	-27.7%	+55.6%
9	The 5th Wave	4,850	1,366	-71.8%	+37.1%
10	Sherlock: The Abominable Bride	--	1,328	--	--

Magnificent for Dirty Grandpa. Good for House of Wolves and The Big Short. Decent holds for Revenant and Ip Man 3.
 

	Weekend Projections			January 28
Rank	Movie	TW	% chg	Total
1	Dirty Grandpa	$405,000	+0.4%	$995,000
2	The Revenant	$270,000	-31.6%	$2,345,000
3	House of Wolves	$265,000	-23.5%	$755,000
4	The Big Short	$195,000	-22.0%	$565,000
5	Ip Man 3	$145,000	-25.6%	$7,400,000

These weekend projections are based on the presumed strength of Sunday's drops. Since last week suffered because of the cold, this week should return the favor for the top 5. That means for a film like Dirty Grandpa who was looking at a 5-10% drop before is now looking at a potential increase. Owner of the worst hold of the top 5 this weekend, The Revenant, is going to see a big hold on Sunday as well. It also should be enough to hold off House of Wolves for #2 though it will depend on how well House of Wolves does on Sunday because it was the only wide release to increase last Sunday, however, this weekend's trend is not looking favorable. The Big Short has been a solid performer for Paramount so far. While the theme of the credit crunch along with the housing market does not identify with most people in Hong Kong, there is enough of a niche audience from the business district and a couple of outliers together with Oscar nominations to drive the film close to 1m. For an autobiographic film, that is a huge success. Ip Man 3 will see another good hold this week inching it closer to 58m. That will likely happen by Wednesday and then all bets are off whether theaters will consider giving it a mercy showing next weekend. After this weekend though, it will finally make it into the top 3 highest grossing local movies of all time.

[Bluebomb]

	Sunday adm.	(so far)			January 31
Rank	Movie	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Dirty Grandpa	3,286	3,143	-4.4%	+11.5%
2	Ten Years	3,049	2,737	-10.2%	+12.7%
3	The Revenant	3,900	2,137	-45.2%	+7.0%
4	The Big Short	2,705	1,914	-29.2%	+3.0%
5	House of Wolves	2,687	1,570	-41.6%	-1.6%
6	Ip Man 3	2,064	1,309	-36.6%	+33.6%
7	Star Wars: The Force Awakens	1,524	1,047	-31.3%	-0.7%
8	Survivor	--	1,021	--	+25.6%
9	The Last Woman Standing	--	586	--	+27.4%
10	The 5th Wave	1,621	553	-65.9%	--

That is much more like it. 5/8 holdovers from last week saw better daily Sunday pre-sales hold today than last Sunday. All 2 week or beyond holdovers in the top 10 this Sunday saw stronger week-to-week holds today than last Sunday as well. Excellent holds for Dirty Grandpa and Ten Years. Not bad for Revenant/House of Wolves. The Big Short had a pretty good hold.

[Bluebomb]

Marketing has already started for Batman v Superman in HK. I saw billboard ads for this today, 8 weeks out. That is crazy and unprecedented. I expect big things from this even though MoS disappointed in HK in 2013. It just needs to survive KFP3 which opens 1 week before.

[Bluebomb]

	Sunday				January 31
Rank	Movie	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Dirty Grandpa	10,064	10,189	+1.2%	-10.9%
2	House of Wolves	10,674	7,583	-29.0%	-4.2%
3	The Revenant	10,210	6,833	-33.1%	-7.5%
4	The Big Short	6,694	5,311	-20.7%	-17.5%
5	Ip Man 3	5,903	4,714	-20.1%	+21.4%
6	Ten Years	3,291	2,965	-9.9%	+0.5%
7	Survivor	--	2,728	--	-8.7%
8	Star Wars: The Force Awakens	2,757	1,926	-30.1%	-4.8%
9	The 5th Wave	4,011	1,573	-60.8%	+15.2%
10	Sherlock: The Abominable Bride	--	1,323	--	-0.4%

Bigger decline than I expected for Dirty Grandpa though week-to-week it was a superb hold. Good hold for House of Wolves and Revenant. Very good for The Big Short and Ip Man 3. Ip Man 3 saved its best hold for last as its Sunday week-to-week hold was 10% better than any other day this weekend. The 2 highest grossing movies of the top 5 and the only 2 that didn't open last week saw their best drops on Sunday while the 3 openers from last week in the top 5 had their best holds on Thursday or Friday.
 

	Weekend adm.			Jan 28-31
Rank	Movie	LW	TW	% chg
1	Dirty Grandpa	34,279	34,344	+0.2%
2	House of Wolves	32,516	24,952	-23.3%
3	The Revenant	34,518	21,610	-37.4%
4	The Big Short	22,015	17,746	-19.4%
5	Ip Man 3	18,925	13,337	-29.5%
6	Survivor	--	9,995	--
7	Ten Years	10,117	8,627	-14.7%
8	Star Wars: The Force Awakens	8,816	6,268	-28.9%
9	The 5th Wave	15,163	4,667	-69.2%

 

	Weekend Estimates			January 28
Rank	Movie	TW	% chg	Total
1	Dirty Grandpa	$390,000	-3.3%	$980,000
2	The Revenant	$270,000	-31.6%	$2,345,000
3	House of Wolves	$260,000	-24.9%	$750,000
4	The Big Short	$190,000	-24.0%	$560,000
5	Ip Man 3	$145,000	-25.6%	$7,400,000

There were slight adjustments made for the 3 openers from last week but otherwise it was a very good weekend for the top 5. Dirty Grandpa very nearly saw an increase this weekend after beating Revenant for #1 last weekend. Word of mouth continues to be strong for the roadtrip comedy. After last weekend's close loss to Dirty Grandpa, The Revenant saw the tide turn in its favour with it beating out House of Wolves for #2. Though this had the worst hold of the top 5, it wasn't by much and it will finish with 2.5m at least, 3m or more is possible if it is able to survive the Chinese New Year massacre. House of Wolves was unable to drum up enough support to pass The Revenant overall on Sunday and so it will take #3 for a 2nd weekend in a row. The trend for this film does not look encouraging as it went from -11% on Friday to -29% on Sunday. The Big Short had very strong admission holds but in gross, its drop is about 5% larger. Sunday was somewhat lacking as it had the worst hold of the top 10. In contrast, Ip Man 3 did not have great holds Thursday-Saturday but its Sunday hold was exceptional. It did 16% better on Sunday than Saturday's week-to-week hold. It should be just enough for it to pass Police Story 4 as the #3 local film of all time.

Actuals

Ip Man 3 - $7,407,214 (passes Police Story 4 as #3 local all time)
Star Wars 7 - $10,451,002

Deadpool
Opening: February 9 (2nd day of Chinese New Year)
Category III - no admittance under 18 years old



Marvel's next foray into the comic book world is Deadpool, a mutated human mercenary that likes to crack jokes as much as crack skulls.

The Schedule
Deadpool will make its worldwide theatrical grand entrance in HK where it will release on the 2nd day of Chinese New Year. There was a lot of movement for the comic book movie in HK, first by snagging a February 4th playdate then held back a week to February 11th to open day-and-date everywhere only to be moved forward to February 9 inside the holidays.
 

Release Date	Movie Title
February 4	The Good Dinosaur Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip
February 6	From Vegas to Macau 3 The Monkey King 2
February 8	The Mermaid
February 9	Deadpool

To understand how much Deadpool will make in 6 days, we have to look at the CNY release schedule. The week leading up to the holidays will see a staggered release pattern. The 2 animated films will release as normal on Thursday while From Vegas to Macau 3 and The Monkey King 2 will open on Saturday. Both FVTM3 and TMK2 will have special screenings on Friday night. On Monday, the first day of the New Year, Stephen Chow's The Mermaid is released before it is Deadpool's turn on Tuesday. If theaters are contracted to show the 5 openers preceding it for the whole week up to Wednesday then Deadpool will only get half-day to 1 showing maximum. If theaters are willing to cut some showtimes here and there from the other openers, then maybe Deadpool gets 2 screens. This is all speculative and since there are no schedules to go on at the moment, predictions may turn out to be way off.

Category III, a hindrance or a blessing?

Deadpool is rated Category III in HK, equivalent to a NC-17 rating in the US. This will certainly impact Deadpool's box office since no one under 18 is allowed to see this movie. The difference between NC-17 in the US and Category III in HK is that NC-17 is usually reserved for extremely graphic horror or sexual films while III includes those + excessive violence which seems to be what Deadpool is. FOX might release a IIB version if Deadpool's box office results are underperforming or if FOX feels that they can make more money by doing some dicing and slicing.

2D vs 3D
Most Marvel films have come out in 3D but Deadpool is one of the rare Marvel films to only be released in 2D. That will automatically preclude it from any discussion of it joining the top 20. Admissions will be stronger than had they released it in 3D.

Will Marvel follow in Disney's footsteps and go crazy with IMAX prices?

Disney was the first to market their tentpole as the ultimate experience in IMAX and it worked. It took Star Wars 7 over the hump and into the elite top 10 of all time. Whether Marvel jumps on Disney's train and starts a whole new era of ballbusting prices in IMAX will be one I'll be keeping an eye on.

The 6-day Forecast

Tuesday - $300,000
Wednesday - $295,000
Thursday - $215,000
Friday - $275,000
Saturday - $510,000
Sunday - $505,000

This daily breakdown is based on if Deadpool is only showing on 1 screen during the 2 holidays and that it jumps to 2 screens on Thursday. Of course, more or less screens might be allocated during the 6 day period but it seems like Deadpool's hands are tied for the 2 holidays and how many screens it gets on Thursday will be dependent on the other new openers.

It is unlikely that Deadpool will get any special screenings on Monday since Deadpool's official premiere is on Monday the 8th in New York and the studio does not want any leaks with the embargo expected to be lifted by the 7th.

Legs

A lot of CNY films fail to clear a 2 multiplier if you include the holidays into its opening weekend. Last year, only 1 film barely did it. The difference between Deadpool and those films is that those were released before the holidays unlike Deadpool which is released at the tail end of the holidays. This is a really weird release date but I expect Deadpool to get to a 2 mulitplier with it not following the traditional tumble the week after the holidays. I think FOX will release a more kid friendly version on its 2nd weekend and that will help its hold precipitously from going off a cliff. Competition will be light until February 25 when Zoolander 2 opens but it will only take a small chunk out of Deadpool's audience. The next 2 weekends after that sees action films in direct competition with Deadpool out. Gods of Egypt opens March 3 and then Divergent 3 heads into theaters March 10. By then though, Deadpool won't be making that much money anyways and Deadpool will have to count on its first 2 weeks to make the most money.

6-day opening: $2,100,000
Total: $5,040,000 (2.40 multiplier)

Edited February 1, 2016 by Bluebomb

[Bluebomb]

Chinese New Year Theater Scheduling

I will be forgoing the usual Thursday schedules and it will be replaced by Saturday schedules. So far on Thursday, The Good Dinosaur has a slight advantage over Alvin and the Chipmunks 4 in showtimes -- 192 to 184 but The Good Dinosaur has more nighttime shows than Alvin.

As far as the CNY films goes, From Vegas to Macau 3 is getting 3 screens at MCL on Friday at night while The Monkey King 2 gets 1. Many theaters have not released their full Friday schedules yet.

Deadpool will be getting Monday midnights to boost its opening. We should expect huge numbers for midnights, maybe in the 80k range due to the holiday, but it will depend on how many theaters will show midnights during the holiday period. In IMAX, it is doing pretty well almost 1 week out:



Don't expect holdovers to get much money during the holidays. Theaters are already downsizing showtimes on Friday. Once Saturday comes, the 4 openers will occupy 4-5 screens. Monday might have another screen go to Mermaid and then Deadpool opens Tuesday. The only one that may have a chance at survival is Dirty Grandpa.

[TigerPaw]

On 2/1/2016 at 6:01 PM, Bluebomb said:

A lot of CNY films fail to clear a 2 multiplier if you include the holidays into its opening weekend. Last year, only 1 film barely did it. The difference between Deadpool and those films is that those were released before the holidays unlike Deadpool which is released at the tail end of the holidays. This is a really weird release date but I expect Deadpool to get to a 2 mulitplier with it not following the traditional tumble the week after the holidays. I think FOX will release a more kid friendly version on its 2nd weekend and that will help its hold precipitously from going off a cliff. Competition will be light until February 25 when Zoolander 2 opens but it will only take a small chunk out of Deadpool's audience. The next 2 weekends after that sees action films in direct competition with Deadpool out. Gods of Egypt opens March 3 and then Divergent 3 heads into theaters March 10. By then though, Deadpool won't be making that much money anyways and Deadpool will have to count on its first 2 weeks to make the most money.

6-day opening: $2,100,000
Total: $5,040,000 (2.40 multiplier)

Is CTHD2 on 19th Feb considered an action film, which is a direct competitor? I know the first CTHD2 didn't do well in HK.


 

[Bluebomb]

More theaters have released their early weekend schedules. The Monkey King 2 gets the biggest screen over From Vegas to Macau 3 at UA.

[Bluebomb]

23 hours ago, TigerPaw said:

Is CTHD2 on 19th Feb considered an action film, which is a direct competitor? I know the first CTHD2 didn't do well in HK.
 

It's an action film but I think the fight between Netflix and the theater chains will spill over into HK. I don't think many theaters will book this into their schedules. I also don't really see why people would pay to see this when it comes out on Netflix one week after. I don't see it doing very well at all. It is getting some previews beginning on February 8 though.

______________________________________________________________________

Let's look at the other openers besides Deadpool opening this weekend and into the holidays.

The Good Dinosaur: Pixar's latest effort about a talking dinosaur and a caveman child will be #1 this weekend. The benefit of 3D will see it tower over Alvin 4 and also ultimately From Vegas to Macau 3 as well. Admissions will see a huge spike on Sunday with no major new openers after From Vegas to Macau 3/The Monkey King 2 on Saturday. Beginning on Monday is where things start to get confusing. With Mermaid and Deadpool opening on Monday/Tuesday respectively, they will affect the new openers to some extent. Overall, The Good Dinosaur should finish with over 2.5m and HK will be one of TGD's better territories. Predicted OW: $850,000 4-day -- #1, $1.6m 7-day

Alvin and the Chipmunks 4: The Chipmunks are back. Unfortunately, that's about as much excitement as most kids will have toward the sequel. HK is not a strong territory for Alvin as the 3rd film only grossed 1.2m, 1m less than Alvin 3's Singapore total. It also does not help that it is going up against a decently reviewed Pixar film. Alvin 4 will likely open lower than the 3rd. Predicted OW: $350,000 4-day - #3, $725,000 7-day

From Vegas to Macau 3: The lone CNY film that is tailored more toward HK tastes should be a strong contender this weekend. Opening with Friday sneaks, this will play very well, especially on Sunday leading into the holiday period. Pre-sales look quite strong so far. Predicted OW: $650,000 2-day (including sneaks) - #2, $1.7m 5-day

The Monkey King 2: This will be the film that gets sidelined this weekend. Pre-sales look horrible and the Aaron Kwok-Kelly Chen fantasy film is not going to entice many people to watch. Predicted OW: $300,000 2-day - #4, $650,000 5-day

The Mermaid: Stephen Chow's back once again with some movie about a mermaid. I don't see this doing that well with other local releases out and Deadpool out on Tuesday. Predicted 3-day CNY gross: $700,000
 

	Thursday adm.	(so far)		February 4
Rank	Movie	LW	TW	% chg
1	The Good Dinosaur	--	3,819	--
2	Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip	--	1,392	--
3	Dirty Grandpa	1,317	761	-42.2%
4	Ten Years	460	755	+64.1%
5	Star Wars: The Force Awakens	735	670	-8.8%
6	The Big Short	586	484	-17.4%
7	House of Wolves	1,005	464	-53.8%
8	The Revenant	760	371	-51.2%
9	Ip Man 3	458	325	-29.0%
10	Survivor	505	245	-51.5%

Decent for The Good Dinosaur. Disaster for Alvin 4 but it should be noted that kids aren't out from school yet.

[Bluebomb]

		Weekly Gross (Mon-Sun)							Jan 25-31
LW	TW	Title	Last Week (HKD)	This Week (HKD)	Days in release	% chg	Total (HKD)	This Week (USD)	Total (USD)
2	1	Dirty Grandpa	$3,148,524	$4,538,613	11	+44.2%	$7,687,137	$584,462	$989,916
4	2	House of Wolves	$2,702,284	$3,298,396	11	+22.1%	$6,000,680	$424,753	$772,741
1	3	The Revenant	$4,661,175	$2,740,886	24	-41.2%	$18,092,841	$352,959	$2,329,917
6	4	The Big Short	$1,949,656	$1,990,328	11	+2.1%	$4,310,789	$256,305	$555,124
3	5	Ip Man 3	$2,782,313	$1,862,921	39	-33.0%	$57,677,107	$239,898	$7,427,408
7	6	Ten Years	$1,043,527	$1,119,812	46	+7.3%	$5,400,924	$144,204	$695,507
5	7	The 5th Wave	$2,625,008	$725,338	18	-72.4%	$8,789,263	$93,405	$1,131,843
--	8	Survivor	--	$721,917	4	--	$721,917	$92,965	$92,965
8	9	Star Wars: The Force Awakens	$1,027,278	$588,844	46	-42.7%	$81,376,608	$75,828	$10,479,328
--	10	The Big Bee	$483,995	$430,701	11	-11.0%	$914,696	$55,463	$117,790

Strong for Dirty Grandpa. Great for House of Wolves. It was #2 ahead of The Revenant last weekend. Somewhat of a big decline for The Revenant. Very good for The Big Short. This confirms that Ip Man 3 passed Police Story 4 last weekend for #3 highest grossing local film of all time.

[Archerdude]

 

 

I mean...what???  When is this supposed to hit screens?

 

Renny Harlin directs Jackie Chan and Johnny Knoxville in SKIPTRACE

https://youtu.be/ADP3XkFJhO8

 

Edited February 4, 2016 by Archerdude

[TigerPaw]

1 hour ago, Archerdude said:

 

 

I mean...what???  When is this supposed to hit screens?

 

Renny Harlin directs Jackie Chan and Johnny Knoxville in SKIPTRACE

https://youtu.be/ADP3XkFJhO8

 

More of a China Production than HK production. Jackie Chan movies have never done well in HK for the past few years. Release date not set yet, supposed to be released in China on 24th Dec but it ran away from Mojin and Mr Six, Detective Chinatown... so the studio is still confirming the dates.

[Archerdude]

52 minutes ago, TigerPaw said:

More of a China Production than HK production. Jackie Chan movies have never done well in HK for the past few years. Release date not set yet, supposed to be released in China on 24th Dec but it ran away from Mojin and Mr Six, Detective Chinatown... so the studio is still confirming the dates.

 

Judging by the look of this...it was right to run away.  Yeah, JC has been a persona non grata in HK for years now.

[Bluebomb]

7 hours ago, Archerdude said:

 

 

I mean...what???  When is this supposed to hit screens?

 

Renny Harlin directs Jackie Chan and Johnny Knoxville in SKIPTRACE

https://youtu.be/ADP3XkFJhO8

 

Unknown date at this point but @TigerPaw is right, Jackie Chan made some comments that turned off most HK people from watching his films in the past few years. That's why he only caters to the China market.

 

	Thursday			February 4
Rank	Movie	LW	TW	% chg
1	The Good Dinosaur	--	9,045	--
2	Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip	--	3,807	--
3	Dirty Grandpa	5,068	2,853	-43.7%
4	House of Wolves	4,180	2,314	-44.6%
5	The Revenant	2,872	1,673	-41.7%
6	The Big Short	2,077	1,532	-26.2%
7	Ten Years	991	1,419	+43.2%
8	Ip Man 3	2,044	1,382	-32.4%
9	Star Wars: The Force Awakens	1,017	1,100	+8.2%
10	Survivor	1,478	626	-57.6%

Good for The Good Dinosaur. Awful for Alvin 4. It is down 70% from Alvin 3's OD Cantonese admissions although Alvin 3 had the benefit of kids being out of school. In gross, it should make slightly more than half of Alvin 3's OD. Last weekend's top holdovers did not have memorable holds on Thursday and it will only get worse this weekend.
 

	Friday adm.	(so far)			February 5
Rank	Movie	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	The Good Dinosaur	--	5,704	--	+49.4%
2	From Vegas to Macau 3	--	2,501	--	--
3	Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip	--	2,018	--	+45.0%
4	The Monkey King 2	--	1,279	--	--
5	Dirty Grandpa	2,119	872	-58.8%	+14.6%
6	Star Wars: The Force Awakens	874	703	-19.6%	+4.9%
7	Ten Years	845	612	-27.6%	-18.9%
8	House of Wolves	991	590	-40.5%	+27.2%
9	The Big Short	1,330	495	-62.8%	+2.3%
10	The Revenant	1,218	459	-62.3%	+23.7%

Decent increase for The Good Dinosaur. I want to say that's a good opening for From Vegas to Macau 3 but based on its sneak previews admissions from last year and the proximity to the holidays this year, that is not a very good number. This pre-sales number beats last year's final Friday sneak previews number but last year's holidays started 6 days later than FVTM2's Friday sneaks while this year's holidays begin in 3 days. Alvin 4 is well off the admissions from the opening weekend of the 3rd Alvin film. Terrible for The Monkey King 2.