Hong Kong Hong Kong Box Office

[Bluebomb]

Ip Man 3 - $7,660,110 (59.42m HK)
Star Wars 7 - $10,531,985

Ip Man 3 might clear 60m after all but it will depend on how it does after the holiday effect is over. Before the holiday, it was averaging about 30 admissions per showing so after the holiday effect subsides, it could go down to about 20-25.

[Bluebomb]

	Friday				February 12
Rank	Movie	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Deadpool	--	43,920	--	-9.6%
2	The Mermaid	--	37,294	--	-4.4%
3	The Good Dinosaur	12,774	21,870	+71.2%	-15.1%
4	From Vegas to Macau 3	8,273	18,729	+126.4%	-23.5%
5	The Monkey King 2	3,390	9,585	+182.7%	-18.3%
6	Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip	5,172	9,478	+83.3%	-8.6%
7	Carol	--	2,812	--	+2.8%
8	Dirty Grandpa	4,013	1,184	-70.5%	+10.9%
9	The Big Short	2,182	1,155	-47.1%	+16.9%
10	An	--	730	--	+3.4%

Great holds for Deadpool/Mermaid. The rest of the openers fell hard though it should be noted that only From Vegas to Macau 3 improved on its Friday pre-sales hold.

[Bluebomb]

	Saturday adm.	(so far)			February 13
Rank	Movie	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Deadpool	--	32,470	--	+28.5%
2	The Mermaid	--	18,386	--	+1.8%
3	The Good Dinosaur	10,622	11,691	+10.1%	-16.0%
4	From Vegas to Macau 3	8,817	7,656	-13.2%	-17.6%
5	The Monkey King 2	6,053	5,036	-16.8%	-9.6%
6	Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip	2,797	4,601	+64.5%	-19.1%
7	Carol	496	1,018	+105.2%	+46.9%
8	The Big Short	634	518	-18.3%	+15.6%
9	The Revenant	637	314	-50.7%	+12.9%
10	Dirty Grandpa	1,199	290	-75.8%	+1.0%

Really strong for Deadpool. Good for Mermaid. Rest of the openers are slipping.

[Bluebomb]

	Saturday				February 13
Rank	Movie	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Deadpool	--	55,612	--	+26.6%
2	The Mermaid	--	41,987	--	+12.6%
3	The Good Dinosaur	20,257	20,105	-0.8%	-8.1%
4	From Vegas to Macau 3	20,275	17,114	-15.6%	-8.6%
5	The Monkey King 2	12,147	9,726	-19.9%	+1.5%
6	Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip	7,399	7,473	+1.0%	-21.2%
7	Carol	1,433	3,659	+155.3%	+30.1%
8	The Big Short	2,615	1,448	-44.6%	+25.4%
9	Dirty Grandpa	4,843	1,074	-77.8%	-9.3%
10	The Choice	--	788	--	--

Excellent for Deadpool. Very good for The Mermaid. Not good for The Good Dinosaur or From Vegas to Macau 3. The Monkey King 2 did OK. Awful hold for Alvin 4 from Friday.
 

	Weekend Projections			February 11
Rank	Movie	TW	% chg	Total
1	Deadpool	$2,330,000		$3,712,000
2	The Mermaid	$1,715,000		$3,432,000
3	The Good Dinosaur	$1,026,000	+38.3%	$2,760,000
4	From Vegas to Macau 3	$800,000	+14.9%	$2,728,000
5	The Monkey King 2	$485,000	+11.5%	$1,665,000

Valentine's Day will see increases almost across the board on Sunday so weekend totals and holds will be very good this week.

Excellent number for Deadpool. That number basically confirms it is going to be the biggest Category III release of all time, beating out Lust Caution's 6.27m. At this rate, Deadpool will forge ahead of 4m and 5m next week and will be around 5.5m at the end of Sunday. If it has a superb hold, this could even blow past 6m next week. A realistic challenge for Deadpool's total would be 8m. If it holds well in the next few weeks then it has a shot at 10m.

The Mermaid is breaking records in China so far and in HK it will be one of the rare films aimed at the Mainland to perform very well at the HK box office. It will be just $220,000 away from Stephen Chow's previous film as a director, Journey to the West: Conquering the Demons, which will likely be taken down by Tuesday or Wednesday at the latest.

The Good Dinosaur had a reputation to live up to being part of the Pixar brand and for the most part, it came out smelling like a rose. Despite weak increases during the CNY period, it has really come back to take a commanding lead on 3rd place. This number will have already beaten all of Southeast Asia's grosses for TGD and with pretty good word of mouth, this could get to 4.5m but the hangover after CNY will be fierce and so I think 4m is a good target.

From Vegas to Macau 3 started off hot but has cooled off over the course of the week. After New Year's, this type of film fades quickly. Combined with the ghastly word of mouth and it is teetering on the verge of a huge crash. This could get to Macau 2's total but it will need a push from the studio to get there. This will likely fade into the sunset with 3.5m.

The Monkey King 2 was not able to establish itself at all as a player this week as it never really materialized into anything other than 'just another film'. With only slightly better holds than Macau 3 the past couple of days, this might be able to take home 2.5m before leaving theaters.
 

	Sunday adm.	(so far)			February 14
Rank	Movie	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Deadpool	--	42,353	--	+30.4%
2	The Mermaid	--	26,998	--	+46.8%
3	The Good Dinosaur	15,079	14,110	-6.4%	+20.7%
4	From Vegas to Macau 3	20,938	8,006	-61.8%	+4.6%
5	Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip	4,534	5,969	+31.6%	+29.7%
6	The Monkey King 2	10,564	5,300	-49.8%	+5.2%
7	Carol	406	1,856	+357.1%	+82.3%
8	How to Be Single	--	1,626	--	--
9	The Choice	--	745	--	--
10	The Big Short	825	669	-18.9%	+29.2%

Great increases for the top 2. After two straight days of decreases, the 2 animated films rebounded a bit on Sunday. As for the 2 other Chinese language films, those increases are pathetic. We could be seeing decreases for both of them today.

[Bluebomb]

	Top 50 Films of All Time (Hong Kong)
Rank	Movie	HK Gross	US Gross
1	Avatar*	$178,029,440	$22,964,414
2	Avengers: Age of Ultron	$133,061,397	$17,121,674
3	Titanic**	$114,939,000	$14,826,276
4	Iron Man 3	$106,389,801	$13,723,457
5	Transformers 4	$98,196,851	$12,601,288
6	The Avengers	$96,705,670	$12,474,280
7	Jurassic World	$96,295,976	$12,357,355
8	Toy Story 3	$89,364,118	$11,527,276
9	Transformers 3	$84,703,797	$10,926,131
10	Star Wars: The Force Awakens*	$81,701,193	$10,512,900
11	The Dark Knight Rises	$80,269,966	$10,354,201
12	Minions	$78,404,191	$10,088,659
13	Monsters University	$77,407,664	$9,984,987
14	Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2	$76,785,999	$9,904,797
15	Inside Out	$66,016,979	$8,494,734
16	The Amazing Spider-Man	$61,983,852	$7,995,435
17	Jurassic Park	$61,898,795	$7,943,275
18	You Are the Apple of My Eye	$61,857,826	$7,938,017
19	Kung Fu Hustle	$61,278,697	$7,863,699
20	Shaolin Soccer	$60,739,847	$7,794,550
21	Furious 7	$59,634,515	$7,674,814
22	Ip Man 3*	$59,422,808	$7,646,229
23	The Dark Knight	$58,524,393	$7,531,944
24	Inception	$58,380,823	$7,513,467
25	The Lost World: Jurassic Park	$58,231,885	$7,494,299
26	Police Story 4: First Strike	$57,518,795	$7,402,526
27	Rumble in the Bronx	$56,912,536	$7,324,502
28	Captain America: The Winter Soldier	$56,552,117	$7,278,117
29	Infernal Affairs	$55,057,176	$7,085,722
30	Spider-Man 3	$55,016,986	$7,080,550
31	The Amazing Spider-Man 2	$54,692,104	$7,038,738
32	Mission Impossible: Rogue Nation	$52,970,115	$6,817,122
33	God of Gamblers Returns	$52,541,028	$6,761,900
34	Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix	$52,417,858	$6,746,048
35	Interstellar	$51,786,434	$6,664,786
36	CJ7	$51,440,832	$6,620,307
37	X-Men: Days of Future Past	$50,768,991	$6,533,843
38	Ant-Man	$50,719,129	$6,526,283
39	Justice, My Foot!	$49,884,734	$6,420,042
40	Independence Day	$49,380,096	$6,355,096
41	Alls Well Ends Well	$48,992,188	$6,305,173
42	Lust Caution	$48,758,480	$6,275,095
43	Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen	$48,115,274	$6,192,316
44	Life of Pi	$47,334,447	$6,091,826
45	2012	$47,027,272	$6,052,293
46	Stand By Me Doraemon	$46,891,675	$6,034,842
47	Little Big Master	$46,729,492	$6,013,970
48	Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire	$46,542,244	$5,989,871
49	Speed	$46,430,056	$5,975,433
50	Thunderbolt	$45,647,210	$5,874,683

* - without re-release (Re-release included: $183,411,471 HK)
** - without re-release (Re-release included: $128,003,033 HK)
* - still in release

Many of the 2015 films that have ended their runs have had their grosses adjusted including Avengers 2, Inside Out, Ant-Man and Minions. Since the previous update, Ip Man 3 joins the top 25.
________________________________________________
Kung Fu Panda 3, a China redux?

One release date that I believe should be changed is Kung Fu Panda 3's date on March 17. The Kung Fu Panda series largely hasn't reached its full potential. Going back to 2011, Kung Fu Panda 2 had to open after Transformers 3 and Harry Potter 7-2 but by then, people were already tapped out and Kung Fu Panda 2 came in lower than what most Southeast Asian territories made with KFP2.

With Kung Fu Panda 3, the real question is that whether it has the stamina to withstand the big Hollywood release, Batman v Superman, but also another Hollywood animated release the very next weekend, Zootopia. Batman v Superman is likely to take away 3 screens and Zootopia 1. Kung Fu Panda 3 is a 5m franchise that if marketed well and released properly can see its total rise to new heights but I believe they should move it up to March 10 to get away from those 2 releases. The March 10 date won't see it get any additional holidays but there is at least some breathing room for Kung Fu Panda 3 so that its legs don't get squashed by 2 films that will target it directly for admissions and indirectly for screens.

[Bluebomb]

	Sunday				February 14
Rank	Movie	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Deadpool	--	58,252	--	+4.7%
2	The Mermaid	--	44,533	--	+6.1%
3	The Good Dinosaur	23,886	21,744	-9.0%	+8.2%
4	From Vegas to Macau 3	31,827	16,770	-47.3%	-2.0%
5	The Monkey King 2	17,196	9,307	-45.9%	-4.3%
6	Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip	9,181	8,778	-4.4%	+17.5%
7	Carol	1,122	4,283	+281.7%	+17.1%
8	How to Be Single	--	3,704	--	--
9	The Big Short	2,168	1,318	-39.2%	-9.0%
10	The Choice	--	1,305	--	+65.6%

Once again, Deadpool is displaying its strength by having the most number of admissions increase on Sunday. The Mermaid though had the biggest walk-up support of the day. The Good Dinosaur is pulling its weight as the #3 film. Valentine's Day helped From Vegas to Macau 3 and The Monkey King 2 from having a steep decline but the drops themselves are indicative of the poor or the mixed word of mouth that the films are receiving. Alvin 4 saw the biggest increase of the top 6 but looks like a correction for Saturday's huge 21% decrease from Friday. Similarly, The Good Dinosaur's Sunday went up 8% on Sunday after an 8% fall on Saturday.
 

	Weekend adm.			Feb 11-14
Rank	Movie	LW	TW	% chg
1	Deadpool	--	206,382	--
2	The Mermaid	--	162,837	--
3	The Good Dinosaur	65,962	89,479	+35.7%
4	From Vegas to Macau 3	60,375	77,087	+27.7%
5	The Monkey King 2	32,733	40,349	+23.3%
6	Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip	25,559	36,104	+41.3%
7	Carol	--	13,490	--
8	The Big Short	8,497	4,909	-42.2%
9	Dirty Grandpa	15,863	4,392	-72.3%

Very strong for the top 2 in admissions.
 

	Weekend Estimates			February 11
Rank	Movie	TW	% chg	Total
1	Deadpool	$2,320,000		$3,702,000
2	The Mermaid	$1,784,000		$3,501,000
3	The Good Dinosaur	$1,028,000	+38.5%	$2,762,000
4	From Vegas to Macau 3	$801,000	+15.1%	$2,729,000
5	The Monkey King 2	$488,000	+12.2%	$1,668,000

After Sunday was adjusted for higher ticket prices, most films went up from projections. Deadpool was the only film to fall from projections but it still handily takes the crown over The Mermaid and it will be marketed as a top 10 OW of all time. There will be an asterisk to its name mentioning that it made that in 6 days but FOX won't care. It will be either the #8 or #9 OW of all time depending on actuals. The Mermaid adjusted up by nearly $70,000 as the big increase on Sunday and 3D prices push its weekend total higher. The rest of the top 5 saw marginal increases from projections.

Chinese New Year week admissions (Feb 8-14 adm.)

Rank	Movie	7-day adm.
1	Deadpool	321,064
2	The Mermaid	299,843
3	From Vegas to Macau 3	195,782
4	The Good Dinosaur	170,040
5	The Monkey King 2	95,818
6	Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip	73,895
7	Carol	17,633
8	Dirty Grandpa	10,004
9	The Big Short	10,003

Deadpool won in admissions despite being handicapped with 1 day less. The Mermaid was an excellent 2nd and From Vegas to Macau 3's red hot start to the week was too much for The Good Dinosaur to come back from. Down the list at #8, Dirty Grandpa manages to eke out a win in admissions over The Big Short by just 1 admission.

[Bluebomb]

I've noticed something strange in the past week. At Cinema City, Ip Man 3's studio theater arm, they have been artificially propping up Ip Man 3's admissions after a certain time of the day. This occurs usually around 9 or 10 PM. I am unsure if the studio is doing it to either break 60m HK, pass Kung Fu Hustle as the #1 local film of all time or even beat You Are the Apple of My Eye as the territory's biggest Chinese language release of all time but 60m is a lock after looking like it was running out of steam 2 weeks ago. After this weekend, Ip Man 3 will be close to 60m if not surpassed it and will be less than 2m away from Apple of My Eye's gross.

 

[Bluebomb]

	Monday adm.			February 15
Rank	Movie	LW	TW	% chg
1	Deadpool	--	30,019	--
2	The Mermaid	55,352	25,563	-53.8%
3	The Good Dinosaur	27,317	9,660	-64.6%
4	From Vegas to Macau 3	47,590	7,506	-84.2%
5	Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip	12,629	4,024	-68.1%
6	The Monkey King 2	22,747	3,898	-82.9%
7	Carol	1,266	1,381	+9.1%
8	How to Be Single	--	498	--
9	The Big Short	2,101	443	-78.9%
10	The Revenant	1,141	429	-62.4%

WOW for Deadpool. It's clear that the CNY holidays are still affecting most movies. Deadpool will blow past 4m on Monday. 6m is likely to happen by Sunday unless if the holiday effect quickly subsides. The Mermaid had a really good hold. It held almost half its opening day audience despite its opening day being massively inflated. Fantastic run for it so far. 4m will happen by Wednesday. The two animated films fell in the 65% range, not bad overall but the other 2 Chinese language films got its first taste of cold abandonment as both Macau 3/The Monkey King 2 tumbled by 83-84%. It's clear that these films won't be staying long in HK theaters.

Deadpool opening week admissions - 351,083

Incredible number for Deadpool. Unbelievable.

[Bluebomb]

Early Thursday schedules

Deadpool/Mermaid retain almost all showtimes. From Vegas to Macau 3 drops to 1-3 showtimes. So does The Good Dinosaur. The Monkey King 2 is cut down to 1 or 2 showtimes or is gone from theaters. Alvin 4 exits most theaters.

Openers aren't doing so great. How To Be Single/13 Hours: Secret Soldiers of Benghazi open with half day showtimes. Spotlight and The Hateful Eight are semi-wide releases with also half day showtimes. Boruto Naruto is a semi wide release too with half day showtimes.

[Bluebomb]

	Tuesday adm.				February 16
Rank	Movie	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Deadpool	61,687	28,679	-53.5%	-4.5%
2	The Mermaid	41,936	25,494	-39.2%	-0.3%
3	The Good Dinosaur	25,661	8,924	-65.2%	-7.6%
4	From Vegas to Macau 3	37,019	6,739	-81.8%	-10.2%
5	The Monkey King 2	16,514	4,157	-74.8%	+6.6%
6	Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip	11,974	3,849	-67.9%	-4.3%
7	Carol	1,344	1,814	+35.0%	+31.4%
8	The Big Short	1,510	640	-57.6%	+44.5%
9	How to Be Single	--	437	--	-12.2%
10	The Revenant	--	433	--	+0.9%

Admissions for the top 6 and How to Be Single are higher than posted due to Cinema City being offline for most of the day. Deadpool and Mermaid likely increased from Monday's admissions. The Good Dinosaur/From Vegas to Macau 3 had terrible holds from Monday but The Monkey King 2 increased. It is likely that The Monkey King 2 saw a sold out showing at one theater that boosted its admissions today. Alvin 4 is dying.

[Bluebomb]

 

	Thursday adm.	(so far)		February 18
Rank	Movie	LW	TW	% chg
1	Deadpool	23,368	6,055	-74.1%
2	The Mermaid	18,013	3,902	-78.3%
3	13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi	--	1,245	--
4	How to Be Single	--	855	--
5	From Vegas to Macau 3	12,630	723	-94.3%
6	The Monkey King 2	6,551	607	-90.7%
7	The Good Dinosaur	15,621	568	-96.4%
8	The Hateful Eight	--	492	--
9	Spotlight	--	455	--
10	Carol	776	228	-70.6%

Good holds for Deadpool/Mermaid. Openers sucked. Rest of the CNY openers tumbled with Alvin 4 down 99% from last Thursday's pre-sales.

[Bluebomb]

		Weekly Gross (Mon-Sun)							Feb 8-14
LW	TW	Title	Last Week (HKD)	This Week (HKD)	Days in release	% chg	Total (HKD)	This Week (USD)	Total (USD)
--	1	Deadpool	--	$28,930,446	6	--	$28,930,446	$3,710,057	$3,710,057
--	2	Mermaid	$677,201	$27,483,541	7	+3958.4%	$28,160,742	$3,524,505	$3,611,349
2	3	From Vegas to Macau III	$5,502,756	$16,378,712	9	+197.6%	$21,881,468	$2,100,415	$2,806,092
1	4	The Good Dinosaur	$5,836,317	$15,418,548	11	+164.2%	$21,254,865	$1,977,283	$2,725,736
3	5	The Monkey King 2	$3,127,127	$10,383,134	9	+232.0%	$13,510,261	$1,331,539	$1,732,563
5	6	Alvin And The Chipmunks: The Road Chip	$2,101,271	$5,628,257	11	+167.9%	$7,729,528	$721,770	$991,239
--	7	Carol	$435,807	$1,436,813	4	+229.7%	$1,872,620	$184,257	$240,145
--	8	Ip Man 3	$1,303,705	$880,569	53	-32.5%	$59,861,381	$112,924	$7,676,657
--	9	The Big Short	$1,155,221	$857,662	25	-25.8%	$6,323,672	$109,987	$810,951
4	10	Dirty Grandpa	$2,504,538	$743,357	25	-70.3%	$10,935,032	$95,328	$1,402,314

Sunday midnights for Mermaid: $86,844

Last weekend's grosses (openers) - Feb 4 weekend
1. The Good Dinosaur - $748,452
2. From Vegas to Macau 3 - $705,676
3. The Monkey King 2 - $401,024
4. Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip - $269,468

Very strong for Deadpool and The Mermaid. Deadpool has conquered X-Men: First Class and The Wolverine's totals while it has already made more than half of X-Men: Days of Future Past in 6 days. The Mermaid is a little more than $200,000 HK away from beating Journey to the West: Conquering the Demons ($28.4m HK).

From Vegas to Macau 3 had a hot start but it sputtered as it neared the end of the week. It dwarfed From Vegas to Macau 2's opening week and 90% of From Vegas to Macau 2's first 2 weeks. The Good Dinosaur did the opposite of Macau 3 this week. Weak CNY holidays but stronger weekend overall led to a good start overall. HK's The Good Dinosaur gross has beaten all Southeast Asian territories and this will make over 3.5m. The Monkey King 2 did not do well overall and will likely finish behind the original's total of 3.2m. Alvin 4 was roadblocked the entire week but should end up finishing around Alvin 3's total.

Edited February 18, 2016 by Bluebomb

[Bluebomb]

Ip Man 3 has finally broken the 60m HK barrier with $60,039,573 amassed up to Wednesday. On Wednesday, it placed 10th for the day and was the longest running film of the top 10 from its nearest competitor by half. It is trailing Shaolin Soccer by $700,000 HK and Kung Fu Hustle by 1.2m HK. I am still unsure if Pegasus will push it hard because they have only scheduled Ip Man 3 on 2 showings a day at Cinema City and the number of sold out tickets for each showtime has gone down by about 40% from last weekend.
 

	Thursday			February 18
Rank	Movie	LW	TW	% chg
1	Deadpool	48,598	19,913	-59.0%
2	The Mermaid	39,023	16,294	-58.2%
3	13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi	--	5,187	--
4	How to Be Single	--	3,304	--
5	From Vegas to Macau 3	24,474	2,486	-89.8%
6	The Good Dinosaur	25,760	1,759	-93.2%
7	The Monkey King 2	11,731	1,528	-87.0%
8	The Hateful Eight	--	1,473	--
9	Spotlight	--	1,331	--
10	Carol	2,736	944	-65.5%
11	Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip	10,375	430	-95.9%

Very good holds for Deadpool and Mermaid. Last week, Thursday was very much inflated by the holiday and drops for tomorrow and Saturday will be 'more normal' before another inflated drop on Sunday. Not a good start for 13 Hours. How to Be Single did awful numbers. The other 4 CNY films were crushed with no holiday effect to prop them back up. For The Good Dinosaur/Alvin 4, these drops are more typical of kids films week-to-week when a holiday or holiday fueled day occurred the previous week. From Vegas to Macau 3/The Monkey King 2 did horribly but it's too be expected. After the CNY holidays, there is usually only 1 Chinese language Chinese New Year film that does 'relatively' well and this year that film is Mermaid. The few extra % points for Macau 3 can be attributed to very poor word of mouth. Meh for The Hateful Eight and Spotlight. Decent hold for Carol.

Wednesday Actuals

1. Deadpool - $35,970,505 HK ($4,609,164 US)
2. The Mermaid - $34,221,050 HK ($4,384,994)
From Vegas to Macau 3 - $23,458,247 HK ($3,005,877)

With Thursdays added in, Deadpool is at 4.835m; The Mermaid is at 4.563m and From Vegas to Macau 3 is at 3.031m.

 

Edited February 18, 2016 by Bluebomb

[Bluebomb]

	Friday adm.	(so far)			February 19
Rank	Movie	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Deadpool	25,273	9,377	-62.9%	+54.9%
2	The Mermaid	18,066	6,217	-65.6%	+59.3%
3	How to Be Single	--	1,563	--	+82.8%
4	13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi	--	1,497	--	+20.2%
5	Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon: Sword of Destiny	--	1,304	--	--
6	Spotlight	--	735	--	+61.5%
7	The Hateful Eight	--	717	--	+45.7%
8	The Good Dinosaur	13,911	690	-95.0%	+21.5%
9	Carol	693	615	-11.3%	+169.7%
10	The Monkey King 2	5,572	528	-90.5%	-13.0%

Very good holds for Deadpool and The Mermaid. How to Be Single had a strong increase stemming from Friday night date movie effect. Opening day reviews though put it at a 3.4. A pretty weak increase for 13 Hours but it received stellar reviews from opening day (4.8/5) users who saw the movie. Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon 2 had a very poor opening. This pretty much played in all theater chains except AMC. Spotlight might have traction. Opening day users pegged it at a 4.2/5. The Hateful Eight had an OK increase from Thursday pre-sales. Opening day scored a 3.9/5.

 

[TigerPaw]

13 hours ago, Bluebomb said:

	Friday adm.	(so far)			February 19
Rank	Movie	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Deadpool	25,273	9,377	-62.9%	+54.9%
2	The Mermaid	18,066	6,217	-65.6%	+59.3%
3	How to Be Single	--	1,563	--	+82.8%
4	13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi	--	1,497	--	+20.2%
5	Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon: Sword of Destiny	--	1,304	--	--
6	Spotlight	--	735	--	+61.5%
7	The Hateful Eight	--	717	--	+45.7%
8	The Good Dinosaur	13,911	690	-95.0%	+21.5%
9	Carol	693	615	-11.3%	+169.7%
10	The Monkey King 2	5,572	528	-90.5%	-13.0%

Very good holds for Deadpool and The Mermaid. How to Be Single had a strong increase stemming from Friday night date movie effect. Opening day reviews though put it at a 3.4. A pretty weak increase for 13 Hours but it received stellar reviews from opening day (4.8/5) users who saw the movie. Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon 2 had a very poor opening. This pretty much played in all theater chains except AMC. Spotlight might have traction. Opening day users pegged it at a 4.2/5. The Hateful Eight had an OK increase from Thursday pre-sales. Opening day scored a 3.9/5.

 

CTHD2 is having great reviews from the website you gave me. How does the website work? Only people who have bought tickets and watched the movie can review it? Because CTHD2's WOM in China is very mixed, sort of like the Grandmaster or The Assassin, artistic movie with not much commercial value but its reviews on the HK film website are splendid... weird....
Anyway it shows that Wu Xia films are losing traction everywhere..

I can't imagine if Deadpool and Mermaid opened on the 4th of Feb instead, what would have happened.. So much potential lost. Macau 3, MK2 will likely be most affected and earn much less than its current gross.

Edited February 19, 2016 by TigerPaw

[Bluebomb]

20 hours ago, TigerPaw said:

CTHD2 is having great reviews from the website you gave me. How does the website work? Only people who have bought tickets and watched the movie can review it? Because CTHD2's WOM in China is very mixed, sort of like the Grandmaster or The Assassin, artistic movie with not much commercial value but its reviews on the HK film website are splendid... weird....
Anyway it shows that Wu Xia films are losing traction everywhere..

I can't imagine if Deadpool and Mermaid opened on the 4th of Feb instead, what would have happened.. So much potential lost. Macau 3, MK2 will likely be most affected and earn much less than its current gross.

No, anyone can review. For most films, opening day is generally a good indicator however sometimes it's not really reliable (Star Wars 7, Life of Pi). That's why we get an incredibly accurate picture of word of mouth after its opening weekend because the fanboy effect/downvoting will cease after opening day. As far as CTHD2 is concerned, it is likely the CTHD fans coming out and reviewing the film. We will know how its word of mouth is after Sunday.

 

	Friday				February 19
Rank	Movie	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Deadpool	43,920	22,833	-48.0%	+14.7%
2	The Mermaid	37,294	18,099	-51.5%	+11.1%
3	13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi	--	5,558	--	+7.2%
4	How to Be Single	--	4,259	--	+28.9%
5	Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon: Sword of Destiny	--	2,765	--	--
6	From Vegas to Macau 3	18,729	2,421	-87.1%	-2.6%
7	Spotlight	--	1,763	--	+32.5%
8	The Good Dinosaur	21,870	1,701	-92.2%	-3.3%
9	The Hateful Eight	--	1,693	--	+14.9%
10	The Monkey King 2	9,585	1,218	-87.3%	-20.3%

Pretty good holds for Deadpool and The Mermaid. 13 Hours made out the best of the openers this week but it was not a good weekend for openers overall. Soft opening for How to Be Single. When you compare this to other territories, this will only make a bit over $250,000 in 4 days. Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon 2 had a weak opening. From Vegas to Macau 3 and the rest of the CNY openers including Alvin 4 all fell on Friday which shows how weak the weekend is for CNY films after the New Year unless if you're top 2. Spotlight had a similar Friday increase to what The Big Short had for a couple of weeks. Not a very good increase for The Hateful Eight.
 

	Saturday adm.	(so far)			February 20
Rank	Movie	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Deadpool	32,470	14,400	-55.7%	+53.6%
2	The Mermaid	18,386	10,953	-40.4%	+76.2%
3	The Good Dinosaur	11,691	3,018	-74.2%	+337.4%
4	13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi	--	2,168	--	+44.8%
5	How to Be Single	--	2,080	--	+33.1%
6	Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon: Sword of Destiny	--	1,507	--	+15.6%
7	Spotlight	--	1,146	--	+55.9%
8	The Hateful Eight	--	1,107	--	+54.4%
9	The Monkey King 2	5,036	946	-81.2%	+79.2%
10	Carol	1,018	793	-22.1%	+28.9%

Very good hold for Deadpool. Amazing hold for The Mermaid. Huge increase for The Good Dinosaur but overall still a big drop week-to-week. 13 Hours is pulling ahead of How to Be Single in the battle of new openers.

[vincentff]

#Bluebomb

 

how high do you think the mermaid can go, can it get over shoalin soccer?

[Bluebomb]

15 hours ago, vincentff said:

#Bluebomb

 

how high do you think the mermaid can go, can it get over shoalin soccer?

I don't think so. The Mermaid will be around 2m US away from Ip Man 3 after today. Also, box office drops off for Chinese language films by quite a bit after today. In the past 5 years the weekend after the 2 week holiday sees Chinese language films drop a lot. The film that had the best hold was The Viral Factor in 2012 which fell by 53% on its 3rd weekend. No Chinese language film has ever held half of its 2nd weekend audience on its 3rd weekend and Stephen Chow's Journey to the West fell 66% on its 3rd weekend. If there is any film that can hold better than 50% though, it will be The Mermaid. Competition will be fairly light on its 3rd weekend with no major openers released but on the March 3rd weekend (its 4th weekend), it should fall by more than 60% due to screen loss. I think The Mermaid will finish around 7.3-7.4m. Openers in March will be very strong cutting short any thought that EDKO might be planning to artificially inflate Mermaid's run.

 

Something worthy of noting is that I don't understand why EDKO's HK Island theaters are so reluctant to play The Mermaid (The Mermaid is distributed by EDKO and EDKO gets the most revenue of any theater chain with its 2 theater chains Broadway and AMC). This happened with Ip Man 3, From Vegas to Macau 3 and The Monkey King 2 too. Before they weren't so picky with showing Chinese films so I don't know if this is a new phenomena or if they just collectively decided to cut down on Chinese language films screenings. I still don't know why they deliberately refuse to play their own film more often in those theaters.

 

	Saturday				February 20
Rank	Movie	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Deadpool	55,612	40,055	-28.0%	+75.4%
2	The Mermaid	41,987	33,985	-19.1%	+87.8%
3	13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi	--	10,200	--	+83.5%
4	How to Be Single	--	7,475	--	+75.5%
5	The Good Dinosaur	20,105	6,746	-66.4%	+296.6%
6	Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon: Sword of Destiny	--	3,838	--	+38.8%
7	Spotlight	--	3,273	--	+85.6%
8	The Hateful Eight	--	3,034	--	+79.2%
9	From Vegas to Macau 3	17,114	2,799	-83.6%	+15.6%
10	Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip	7,473	2,185	-70.8%	+522.5%

Very good hold for Deadpool. Excellent hold for The Mermaid. That's a really good increase for 13 Hours. Word of mouth remains high. Solid increase for How to Be Single. Word of mouth is getting stronger. Not that good of a hold for The Good Dinosaur but by next week, it should be able to pass Monsters Inc. and Ratatouille for #8 on Pixar's all-time list.

Pixar (all in HKD)

Toy Story - $16,817,085
A Bug's Life - $13,992,420
Toy Story 2 - $35,732,127
Monsters Inc. - $25,777,970
Finding Nemo - $31,894,016
The Incredibles - $33,790,632
Cars - $15,026,845
Ratatouille - $25,257,320
Wall-E - did not publish; around 17m
Up - $33,295,722
Toy Story 3 - $89,364,118
Cars 2 - did not publish; a little more than $18,417,145
Brave - did not publish
Monsters University - $77,372,721
Inside Out - $66,016,979

Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon had a frontloaded Friday which led to a diminished Saturday increase.
 

	Sunday adm.	(so far)			February 21
Rank	Movie	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	The Mermaid	26,998	15,368	-43.1%	+40.3%
2	Deadpool	42,353	14,073	-66.8%	-2.3%
3	The Good Dinosaur	14,110	4,899	-65.3%	+62.3%
4	13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi	--	3,042	--	+40.3%
5	How to Be Single	1,626	2,004	+23.2%	-3.7%
6	Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon: Sword of Destiny	--	1,944	--	+29.0%
7	Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip	5,969	1,606	-73.1%	--
8	The Monkey King 2	5,300	1,509	-71.5%	+59.5%
9	Spotlight	--	1,420	--	+23.9%
10	The Hateful Eight	--	1,145	--	+3.4%

All Chinese language CNY films saw 40% increases with Sunday pre-sales. It could be a sign that since today is officially the end of holidays in China mainlanders are rushing to buy movie tickets before heading back home. When I look ahead toward the weekdays, Deadpool is ahead of The Mermaid on all 3 days in pre-sales. That is an excellent hold for The Mermaid. Just OK for Deadpool today. OK for The Good Dinosaur. Pretty good increase for 13 Hours. It has come into its own this weekend. Disappointing decrease for How to Be Single.

 

[Bluebomb]

	Sunday				February 21
Rank	Movie	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	The Mermaid	44,533	34,902	-21.6%	+2.7%
2	Deadpool	58,252	34,167	-41.3%	-14.7%
3	13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi	--	9,354	--	-8.3%
4	The Good Dinosaur	21,744	8,086	-62.8%	+19.9%
5	How to Be Single	3,704	6,239	+68.4%	-16.5%
6	Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon: Sword of Destiny	--	3,903	--	+1.7%
7	From Vegas to Macau 3	16,770	3,092	-81.6%	+10.5%
8	Spotlight	--	2,907	--	-11.2%
9	Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip	8,778	2,856	-67.5%	+30.7%
10	The Hateful Eight	--	2,843	--	-6.3%

All Chinese language films saw increases today. Incredible hold for The Mermaid though I think it has more to do with the remaining holiday effect than any resurgence that will carry over into the new week. Deadpool had a good hold from Valentine's Day but it did fall 15% today which could mean that admissions will begin to sag in the following few weeks. 7m is still happening but whether it can push 8m depends on how well it holds. Not a great decrease for 13 Hours. Solid increase for The Good Dinosaur. Ouch for How to be Single. It had the worst daily hold of the top 10 on Sunday.
 

	Weekend adm.			Feb 18-21
Rank	Movie	LW	TW	% chg
1	Deadpool	206,382	116,968	-43.3%
2	The Mermaid	162,837	103,280	-36.6%
3	13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi	--	30,299	--
4	How to Be Single	3,704	21,277	+474.4%
5	The Good Dinosaur	89,479	18,292	-79.6%
6	From Vegas to Macau 3	77,087	10,798	-86.0%
7	Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon: Sword of Destiny	--	10,506	--
8	Spotlight	--	9,274	--
9	The Hateful Eight	--	9,043	--
10	The Monkey King 2	40,349	6,438	-84.0%

The top 2 were the stars of this weekend but 13 Hours held its own too.
 

	Weekend Estimates			February 18
Rank	Movie	TW	% chg	Total
1	Deadpool	$1,320,000	-43.3%	$5,930,000
2	The Mermaid	$1,130,000	-40.4%	$5,515,000
3	13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi	$375,000		$375,000
4	How to Be Single	$220,000		$271,000
5	The Good Dinosaur	$215,000	-78.3%	$3,190,000

If these estimates hold, Deadpool officially cracks the top 50 of all time in just 2 weeks. Deadpool will be just a little more than 2.5m HK away from being the highest grossing Category III release of all time. It should pass Lust, Caution by Friday. The Mermaid had some celebrating of its own to crow about. After this weekend, it will shoot into the top 20 local films of all time and is around the corner from making the top 50 of all time. The holidays are over and it'll be interesting to see how well this performs without holidays. No Chinese language film has ever held more than half of its 2nd weekend audience so next weekend will be one to watch. 13 Hours started off OK but only got better as word of mouth fueled its weekend. How to Be Single couldn't translate its sneak previews into anything substantial. Its weekend is a disappointment. The Good Dinosaur rallied from its slow weekdays and catapulted on the weekend, quadrupling its Thursday admissions on Saturday and again on Sunday to take #5 over From Vegas to Macau 3 and Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon 2. It is less than $500,000 HK from Ratatouille and 1m HK from Monsters Inc. It will better both with no new kids films out until Kung Fu Panda 3.

[Bluebomb]

Actuals

Deadpool - $5,920,064
The Mermaid - $5,485,234
Ip Man 3 - $7,709,029
13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi - $358,847
How to Be Single - $281,951
Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon: Sword of Destiny - $179,423
The Good Dinosaur - $3,165,544
From Vegas to Macau 3 - $3,150,165
The Monkey King 2 - $1,973,659
Spotlight - $95,991

Deadpool is officially in the top 50. The Mermaid lands inside the top 20 local films of all time. Ip Man 3 only moved about $110,000 HK in 4 days since Wednesday and it is still about $570,000 HK from Shaolin Soccer.