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peludo

Adjusting Exchange Rates... (First post updated with Jason's new list)

158 posts in this topic

Given the recent huge changes in exchange rates, the WW figures in the "official" list have become unuseful to compare with other recent blockbusters and their OS figures.

 

I have tried to elaborate an adapted list taking into account the exchange rates of the moment that film was released in each country and adjusting the figure to the current exchange rate. Those data are not difficult to find. I am using this web (http://www.oanda.com/lang/es/currency/historical-rates/). I have taken the average of the 3 first months in release. Let's take an example:

 

According BOM, Frozen did $249m in Japan. It was released in March 2014, so I have taken the average of March (102.25 Yen/$), April (102.49) and May (101.83). The average of those 3 numbers is 102.19. Last week average's Yen is 119.98. To get the today figure, we have to multiply the original gross by the average of March, April and May obtained and then divide by the current exchange rate. We obtain than Frozen would have made today $212m in Japan.

 

I have taken original figures from BOM (what it is a problem from now since BOM does not update most international markets like used to do :( ).

 

I am conscious that most films cume their grosses during first weeks, but some others don't. I could change the system and use just the first month (like I am doing exceptionally in China, since the movies are just 30 days on theaters), but I had to choose one. If you consider it would be better to take just the release month or even the next one, we can discuss it.

 

Here is the WW list adjusted by exchange rates:

 

#. FILM: Original OS - Original WW ==> New OS - New WW

1. Avatar: 2.027 billion - 2.787 billion ==>  1.674 billion - 2.434 billion (+ $7 million since March 21st)

2. Titanic: 1.528 billion - 2.186 billion ==> 1.437b - 2.096b (+ $3m)

3. The Avengers: 895 million - 1.518 billion ==> 749m - 1.372b (+4)

4. Frozen: 873m - 1.274b ==> 745m - 1.146b (+5)

5. Deathly Hallows II - 960m - 1.341b ==> 747.8m - 1.129b (+3)

6. Iron Man 3: 806m - 1.215b ==> 692.6m - 1.101b  (+4)

7. Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone: 657m - 974m ==> 744.4m - 1.062b (-1)

8. The Return of the King: 742m - 1.119b ==> 656.9m - 1.034b (+1)

9. Transformers 4: 841m - 1.087b ==> 769m - 1.014.6b (+2)

10. Transformers 3: 771m - 1.123b ==> 647.7m - 1.000b (+3) (LW #11)

11. The Phantom Menace: 552m - 1.027b ==> 524.8m - 999.4m (+0.5) (LW #10)

12. The Dark Knight Rises: 636m - 1.084b ==> 543.6m - 991.7m (+2)

13. Skyfall: 804m - 1.108b ==> 679.3m - 983.7m (flat)

14. Pirates of the Caribbean 2: 642m - 1.066b ==> 544.6m - 967.9m (+1.5)

15. Fellowship of the Ring: 556m - 871m ==> 634.8m - 950.4m (-1.1)

16. Jurassic Park: 626.7m - 1.029b ==> 546.7m - 949.2m (+1)

17. Toy Story 3: 648m - 1.063b ==> 534.1m - 949.1m (+3.8)

18. The Two Towers: 583m - 926m ==> 592.9m - 935.4m (-0.2)

19. The Hobbit 3: 700m - 954m ==> 671.3m - 926.3m (-1.5)

20. The Lion King: 564.7m - 987m ==> 487.5m - 910.3m (+0.8)

21. The Dark Knight: 469.7m - 1.004b ==> 363.3m - 898.2m (+1.7)

22. Alice in Wonderland: 691m - 1.025b ==> 555.2m - 889.3m (+4) (LW #23)

23. Chamber of Secrets: 617m - 879m ==> 626.1m - 888.1m (+0.9) (LW #22)

24. The Hobbit 1: 714m - 1.017b ==> 582.0m - 885.0m (-0.3)

25. Despicable me 2: 602.7m - 970m ==> 507.1m - 875.2m (+2.1) (LW #26)

26. Finding Nemo: 555.9m - 936m ==> 494.1m - 874.9m (+0.6) (LW #25)

27. Shrek 2: 478.6m - 919m ==> 424.7m - 865.9m (+2.3)

28. Pirates of the Caribbean 4: 804.6m - 1.045.7b ==> 607.5m - 848.6m (+2.4)

29. Pirates of the Caribbean 3: 654m - 963m ==> 536.7m - 846.1m (+2)

30. Globet of Fire: 606.9m - 896.9m ==> 553.4m - 843.4m (+0.7) (LW #31)

31. The Hobbit 2: 702m - 960m ==> 584.9m - 843.2m (-0.3) (LW #30)

32. Spider-man: 418m - 821.7m ==> 431.2m - 834.9m (+1.7)

33. Deathly Hallows I: 664.3m - 960m ==> 536.3m - 832.2m (+1.0)

34. Order of the Phoenix: 647.8m - 939.8m ==> 529.6m - 821.6m (+1.2)

35. Half-Blood Prince: 632.4m - 934m ==> 509.7m - 811.7m (+1.3)

36. Revenge of the Sith: 468m - 848m ==> 417.7m - 798.0m (+1.0)

37. Transformers 2: 434m - 836m ==> 394.6m - 797.1m (+2.2)

38. E.T. The Extraterrestrial: 357.8m - 792.9m ==> 357.8m - 792.9m (there are not available data to adjust)

39. Catching Fire: 440m - 864m ==> 368.1m - 792.8m (+0.6)

40. Spider-man 3: 554m - 890.8m ==> 455.0m - 791.5m (+2.5)

41. Star Wars: 314.4m - 775.4m ==> 314.4m - 775.4m (there are not available data to adjust)

42. Inception: 533m - 825.5m ==> 464.2m - 756.8m (+1.9)

43. Ice Age 4: 715.9m - 877.2m ==> 587.4m - 748.7m (+0.9)

44. Spider-man 2: 410.2m - 783.8m ==> 370.2m - 743.8m (+2.2)

45. Prisoner of Azkaban: 547.1m - 796.7m ==> 490.4m - 740.5m (+1.5)

46. Independence Day: 511.2m - 817.4m ==> 430.3m - 736.5m (-0.5)

47. Ice Age 3: 690.1m - 886.7m ==> 529.7m - 726.3m (+1.2)

48. Mockingjay I: 415m - 752.1m ==> 385.5m - 722.7m (+0.7)

49. Guardians of the Galaxy: 441m - 774.2m ==> 388.0m - 721.2m (+1.6)

50. Twilight - Breaking Dawn 2: 537.4m - 829.7m ==> 422.8m - 715.1m (+2.3)

51. Matrix Reloaded: 460.5m - 742.1m ==> 429.9m - 711.5m (NEW)

52. Fast & Furious 6: 550.0m - 788.7m ==> 464.4m - 703.1m (+1.8)

53. The Chornicles of Narnia: 453.3m - 745.0m ==> 404.9m - 696.6m (NEW)

54. Shrek 3: 476.2m - 799.0m ==> 366.8m - 689.5m (+2.4)

55. X-Men: Days of future past: 514.2m - 748.1m ==> 451.8m - 685.8m (NEW)

56. The Da Vinci Code: 540.7m - 758.2m ==> 467.0m - 684.6m (NEW)

57. The Amazing Spider-man: 495.9m - 757.9m ==> 417.4m - 679.5m (NEW)

58. Maleficent: 517.0m - 758.4m ==> 437.6m - 679.0m (NEW)

59. Monsters University: 475.1m - 743.6m ==> 398.0m - 666.5m (NEW)

60. Indiana Jones 4: 469.5m - 786.6m ==> 348.6m - 665.7m (+2.2)

61. Captain America 2: 455.0m - 714.8m ==> 405.5m - 665.2m (NEW)

62. 2012: 603.6m - 769.7m ==> 491.9m - 658.0m (NEW)

63. Gravity: 442.3m - 716.4m ==> 381.9m - 656.0m (NEW)

64. Interstellar: 484.7m - 672.7m ==> 467.9m - 655.9m (+3.0)

65. Transformers: 390.5m - 709.7m ==> 332.9m - 652.1m (NEW)

66. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes: 500.3m - 708.8m ==> 443.4m - 651.9m (NEW)

67. Shrek 4: 513.9m - 752.6m ==> 411.5m - 650.3m (NEW)

68. The Amazing Spider-man 2: 506.1m - 709.0m ==> 444.2m - 647.0m (NEW)

69. Madagascar 3: 530.6m - 746.9m ==> 422.7m - 639.1m (NEW)

70. Up: 438.3m - 731.3m ==> 344.3m - 637.3m (NEW)

71. Twilight: Breaking Dawn 1: 430.9m - 712.2m ==> 340.4m - 621.6m (NEW)

72. Twilight: New Moon: 413.2m - 709.8m ==> 318.4m - 615.0m (NEW)

   *. Fast & Furious 5: 416.3m - 626.1m ==> 322.2m - 532.0m (NEW)

 

 

This is not a definitive list. I still have to adjust some recent movies like Guardians of the Galaxy, Mockingjay or Hobbit 3. And I still have not covered every "big" film. I will update and enlarge this until maybe a top 100. And I will update figures every month to see the changes.

 

Re-releases like Lion King, Phantom Menace or Jurassic Park have been calculated taking into account figures of every period. BOM gives those data so the numbers should be as accurate as for the other films.

 

Films like Star Wars or E.T are more difficult to adjust since there are no data of every period. I will try to look for it, but I can not promise to obtain them.

 

Please, do not take this numbers as definitive or the absolute truth. It is just an orientation. But looking at numbers they seem quite coherent.

 

 

Edit:

 

WW list adjusted by inflation (using DOM inflation): http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/18043-adjusting-exchange-rates/?p=2200989

 

WW list adjusted by inflation without China figures and adding a 10% of 3D for 2D films: http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/18043-adjusting-exchange-rates/?p=2202728

 

This is a link to the post where @Jason will update with his calculations. Thank you for your hard work :) 

Edited by peludo
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Great job peludo

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First: wow, what a lot of work, I am impressed

 

I love such calculations, especially this year as the actual exchange rate already shows how much that detail alone can make comaprisons without including it a bit... wacky

 

BOM gave repeatedly notice that they are in search for reliable BO sources for several countries as a few past sources either closed down or got over the time rather unreliable.

They got a bit bad with a few countries details, as they seem to have had a bit of a problem with the calculation out of admission and varying exchange rates...

At first glance a lot of the missing countries seem to be countries where for differing reasons unpaid (or only with explecit permission of the right-holders) re-posts... are only available as admissions

 

 

Their international list ends

CURRENT RESULTS BY TERRITORY
(Weekend Ending November 16) = 2014

 

There is a German website that tries to collect al lot of those, but they do not update all countries at once, means actual BO lists (not counting for the weekly - some countries bi-weekly - BO news per country)  can be a bit behind.

But movie titles... are in German and their over-view page links are partly a bit out of date = if familiar with their system not a problem

 

They too reported about some difficulties with some BO detail providers.

The owner of the site is btw a long-time cinema owner (now former I think)

The news page

http://www.insidekino.com/News.htm

All entries with the word 'mehr' have a link to the countries last updated 'Quartal', usually the actual one

 

Example for France

http://www.insidekino.com/BO/FTopI2015.htm

In the left above corner you'll see IV. Quartal 2014 = clicking on that gives the last 3 month of 2014 (= 4th/last quarter of 2014) and so on

 

For Switzerland is a site that shows only the last 2 weeks,.... and so on

 

I also use screendaily, Forbes,... and try to follow certain contributers that seem to be specialised for certain countries, e.g. UK has one that tweets the final run results of movies in English pounds and gives the actual US dollars for that too, but BOM still gives UK.

 

Fullbuster, Rsyu, IndustriousAngel,.... (I'm bad with names anyway, but with the name-changes :wacko: )

I think here are several well informed users here who might have links to websites that might help e,g, with links to sources... for this really interesting project

Edited by terrestrial
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I really doubt that TA2 could match the original's numbers.

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First: wow, what a lot of work, I am impressed

 

I love such calculations, especially this year as the actual exchange rate already shows how much that detail alone can make comaprisons without including it a bit... wacky

 

BOM gave repeatedly notice that they are in search for reliable BO sources for several countries as a few past sources either closed down or got over the time rather unreliable.

They got a bit bad with a few countries details, as they seem to have had a bit of a problem with the calculation out of admission and varying exchange rates...

At first glance a lot of the missing countries seem to be countries where for differing reasons unpaid (or only with explecit permission of the right-holders) re-posts... are only available as admissions

 

 

Their international list ends

CURRENT RESULTS BY TERRITORY

(Weekend Ending November 16) = 2014

 

There is a German website that tries to collect al lot of those, but they do not update all countries at once, means actual BO lists (not counting for the weekly - some countries bi-weekly - BO news per country)  can be a bit behind.

But movie titles... are in German and their over-view page links are partly a bit out of date = if familiar with their system not a problem

 

They too reported about some difficulties with some BO detail providers.

The owner of the site is btw a long-time cinema owner (now former I think)

The news page

http://www.insidekino.com/News.htm

All entries with the word 'mehr' have a link to the countries last updated 'Quartal', usually the actual one

 

Example for France

http://www.insidekino.com/BO/FTopI2015.htm

In the left above corner you'll see IV. Quartal 2014 = clicking on that gives the last 3 month of 2014 (= 4th/last quarter of 2014) and so on

 

For Switzerland is a site that shows only the last 2 weeks,.... and so on

 

I also use screendaily, Forbes,... and try to follow certain contributers that seem to be specialised for certain countries, e.g. UK has one that tweets the final run results of movies in English pounds and gives the actual US dollars for that too, but BOM still gives UK.

 

Fullbuster, Rsyu, IndustriousAngel,.... (I'm bad with names anyway, but with the name-changes :wacko: )

I think here are several well informed users here who might have links to websites that might help e,g, with links to sources... for this really interesting project

First of all, thank you for your words :)

 

I know there are many places to look for info for every country, but this already imply quite work to do with BOM system, which was quite comfortable. Anyway, I will try complete the list as soon as possible with every data I can get ;)

 

And maybe those posters with local information could share more info about each country because I would like to introduce another variable and make a WW adjuster taking into account exchange rates and inflation.

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I really doubt that TA2 could match the original's numbers.

I do not know if it would be so hard. Right now TA would have made $755m OS, which means $140m less than original gross. Maybe just China can cover that loss (I have taken $90m for TA in China and it would make $92m today. Yuan has nos lost its value. It has even increased a bit). With inflation and more admissions I do not see so hard to reach those $895m OS. Another thing is if we talk about WW, since it is probable TA2 will not match TA DOM. Maybe a possible $75m DOM drop can be covered with more admissions and inflation OS. We will see. It can be quite close, IMHO.

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First of all, thank you for your words :)

 

I know there are many places to look for info for every country, but this already imply quite work to do with BOM system, which was quite comfortable. Anyway, I will try complete the list as soon as possible with every data I can get ;)

 

And maybe those posters with local information could share more info about each country because I would like to introduce another variable and make a WW adjuster taking into account exchange rates and inflation.

 

Yeah, I too 'mourn' (term?) the loss of so many countries' actual BO there.

 

I did a post (I think in the dom AoU thread) about which countries either do have the Euro or are 'bound' to the Euro (that details seem even less generally known), ... I guess some might not have been aware about the size ... of it

Might be helpful for such a project that the Euro is in use for such a big 'region', hopefully for you less exchange rate adjusting work for a part of the world's details.

 

It does look a like a very big / daunting project, already set on 'follow'

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how did TDKR magically overtake Skyfall?

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I think we can only count 100M increase in China, sources say that TA2 will have a May 10th Sunday release which is bad. Furious 7 will also open on Sunday.

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how did TDKR magically overtake Skyfall?

 

Really?

 

You did read the calculation model?

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how did TDKR magically overtake Skyfall?

 

It's nothing magical about it. TDKR had a much bigger US gross, which isn't impacted by exchange rates.

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how did TDKR magically overtake Skyfall?

Because TDKR was $140m bigger DOM than Skyfall. As bigger a movie is DOM in relation to its OS figure, as lower it will drop in this list today. This problem affects to OS numbers. If you make the calculation, both films drop about a 15% OS relative to their OS original gross.

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Why don't we just adjust to average tickets sold? Then we can see the true winnners, or is that too complicated to work out

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I think we can only count 100M increase in China, sources say that TA2 will have a May 10th Sunday release which is bad. Furious 7 will also open on Sunday.

So we should expect $190-$200m from China?

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It's nothing magical about it. TDKR had a much bigger US gross, which isn't impacted by exchange rates.

1409455669_1386371355_64c51t_1e55fk2a.gi

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Why don't we just adjust to average tickets sold? Then we can see the true winnners, or is that too complicated to work out

I am trying to do it, but it is horrible. I need lists of admissions of every country. I have a few of them, but in general, they are not available.

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I am trying to do it, but it is horrible. I need lists of admissions of every country. I have a few of them, but in general, they are not available.

WOW, you are a busy little bee

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Why don't we just adjust to average tickets sold? Then we can see the true winnners, or is that too complicated to work out

 

 

Why don't you do that work?

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Why don't you do that work?

 

Uh how about, fuck no.

 

besides, Peludo is on the case, I don't have the time, and if I did I still wouldn't go through all that hassle. 

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I am trying to do it, but it is horrible. I need lists of admissions of every country. I have a few of them, but in general, they are not available.

 

I know, there is a reason why not even pro-websites with financial backing do that. Or BOM seemingly gave up their version of international lists.

 

Again, cudos for your work

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