Juby
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Posts posted by Juby
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I was sticking with my domestic prediction at $842M for the whole 3 weeks, but after this weekend I think it is the best case scenario right now (it might happen if fans mobilize themselfs with Spider-Man premiere, or if Disney do some expansion in mid / end of July). If not, I think it might finish in $835-839 mln range. I hope now no one would be crazy enough to write "$865M predictions", cause even $850M is dead and gone at this point.
If China really is $629M, and assuming it will end up with $841M domestic (optimistic prediction) = $$1.47B from these two markets. Endgame still needs at least $1.319B from the rest of the world to beat Avatar's record. Sorry, but it's impossible.
$2.76-2.77B worldwide, no more. And I don't think re-release will help, cause in August the movie will go digital, and early September will be available on 4K / Blu-ray / DVD. Absolutely amazing, jaw dropping run for Avengers, but Avatar is safe.
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Ha! I predicted $2.712B after the weekend, it is $2.713B.
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6 Avengers: Endgame Dis 3,105 (-705) $2M (-52%) $7.3M (-58%) $815M 6 So Endgame is going to drop over 50% as I said many times. I was right.
No lets see if I was right with under $8M OS weekend.
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16 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:
did Mojo simply assumed that IW will hold like IW like its doing from last few weeks
You mean Endgame will hold like IW
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You can just add my name, like I just did.
This is the only forum I see people keep quoting the whole posts directly over theirs.
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There won't be any daily updates till June 10th (see page 3).
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Why You keep quoting posts which are directly over yours? Makes no sense at all.
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44 minutes ago, nguyenkhoi282 said:
Why would you guys only look at the raw percetage drop from weekend-to-weekend while we have weekdays data available?
Because during the weekdays there was no Godzilla? Duh!
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5 hours ago, meriodejaneiro said:
Disney could have 5 200M+ ow and 600M+ dom movies this year:
EG (done)
TS4
TLK
F2
TROS
This could make a good BOM Club.
Remove Star Wars, 200/600 is not gonna happen.
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Another +50% weekend drop for Endgame here we go. . .
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2 hours ago, nguyenkhoi282 said:
I think it can top 2.720B by Sunday.
Domestic will probably be about 817-818M
Hold on here.
It's $806.55 till Wednesday. With strong Thursday it migh be at $807.8M. Do You thnik this weekend will be almost $10 million? With -700 theaters lost? After strong Memorial Day weekend hold? And with Godzilla, Rocketman and Ma on the horizont?
$816.5M Domestic after the weekend seems like a reasonable target here. +$7.5M OS = ~$2.712B worldwide after the weekend.
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I'm hoping for at least $183M OW.
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Daily Domestic Chart for Wednesday May 29, 2019
← Previous Chart Chart Index Movie Distributor Gross Change Thtrs. Per Thtr. Total Gross Days 1 (1) Aladdin Walt Disney $7,455,705 -38% 4,476 $1,666 $136,276,649 6 - (3) Avengers: Endgame Walt Disney $1,288,624 -31% 3,810 $338 $806,551,883 34 - (4) Pokémon: Detective Pikachu Warner Bros. $1,116,684 -36% 3,824 $292 $122,926,730 20 - (6) Booksmart Annapurna Pictures $729,723 -27% 2,505 $291 $10,433,435 6 - (5) BrightBurn Sony Pictures $692,922 -37% 2,607 $266 $11,406,396 6 - (7) A Dog’s Journey Universal $436,625 -34% 3,279 $133 $17,372,320 13 - (8) The Hustle MGM $401,864 -33% 2,377 $169 $31,613,004 20 - (9) The Intruder Sony Pictures $256,444 -30% 1,612 $159 $33,234,117 27 - (12) Poms STX Entertainment $133,522 -19% 911 $147 $12,898,038 20 - (11) The Sun is Also a Star Warner Bros. $116,316 -33% 2,073 $56 $4,825,236 13 - (13) UglyDolls STX Entertainment $78,047 -19% 1,090 $72 $19,284,248 27 - (15) Breakthrough 20th Century Fox $45,982 -25% 551 $83 $40,102,057 48 - (14) The Curse of La Llorona Warner Bros. $45,850 -26% 359 $128 $54,061,464 41 - (-) Dumbo Walt Disney $38,848 -16% 346 $112 $112,933,311 62 - (-) Captain Marvel Walt Disney $28,717 -17% 300 $96 $425,980,544 83 - (-) Shazam! Warner Bros. $27,757 -14% 283 $98 $138,665,142 55 - (-) Tolkien Fox Searchlight $17,395 -26% 189 $92 $4,420,346 20 - (-) Little Universal $16,280 -24% 183 $89 $40,539,915 48 - (-) Penguins Walt Disney $13,900 n/c 60 $232 $7,486,449 43 - (-) How to Train Your Dragon: T… Universal $12,720 +1% 157 $81 $160,583,695 97 - (-) The Souvenir A24 $12,441 -3% 23 $541 $316,651 13 - (-) Red Joan IFC Films $12,264 -6% 133 $92 $1,438,967 48 - (-) Us Universal $10,405 -13% 136 $77 $174,884,880 69 - (-) Non-Fiction IFC Films $10,079 -7% 60 $168 $368,606 27 - (-) Pet Sematary Paramount Pictures $9,487 -1% 133 $71 $54,716,829 55 - (-) India’s Most Wanted FIP $9,115 -46% 110 $83 $144,609 6 - (-) Missing Link United Artists $4,545 -18% 110 $41 $16,586,577 48 - (-) Hotel Mumbai Bleecker Street $3,568 -22% 30 $119 $9,600,850 69 - (-) Unplanned Pure Flix Entertain… $2,852 +2% 64 $45 $18,091,663 62 - (-) The Tomorrow Man Bleecker Street $1,604 -12% 4 $401 $32,584 8 - (-) After Aviron Pictures $1,426 +22% 34 $42 $12,136,097 48 - (-) High Life A24 $1,042 -61% 14 $74 $1,224,767 55 -
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2 hours ago, NoobSaibot said:
We have an official banner for the Licensing Expo.
Looking good. Kong should be at least 90 meters (three times bigger than in Skull Island) to fight with this Godzilla.
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3 hours ago, nguyenkhoi282 said:
855 + 629 + 1301 = 2.785B (+/- 5M)
$855M dom is a very, very optimistic prediction, and I don't know if over $1.3B OS-China is possible at this point. $2.77B is where Endgame heading (+/- $5M).
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18 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:
June is weaker overall this year compared to FK+I2 last year, so I wouldn't be surprised if EG makes up ground on IW after this weekend. FFH will also give a bigger boost than AMATW did.
Yyyyy. . . . No, it isn't. There are much more titles people want to see, last June were just these two. Now almost every weekend there are two big openers, and Toy Story might explode almost as well as Incredibles 2.
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Daily Domestic Chart for Tuesday May 28, 2019
← Previous Chart Chart Index Movie Distributor Gross Change Thtrs. Per Thtr. Total Gross Days 1 (1) Aladdin Walt Disney $12,014,982 -53% 4,476 $2,684 $128,820,944 5 - (3) Avengers: Endgame Walt Disney $1,867,668 -62% 3,810 $490 $805,263,259 33 - (-) Pokémon: Detective Pikachu Warner Bros. $1,740,023 -55% 3,824 $455 $121,810,046 19 - (-) BrightBurn Sony Pictures $1,103,057 -37% 2,607 $423 $10,713,474 5 - (-) Booksmart Annapurna Pictures $1,002,349 -43% 2,505 $400 $9,703,712 5 - (-) A Dog’s Journey Universal $658,060 -50% 3,279 $201 $16,935,695 12 - (-) The Hustle MGM $595,444 -41% 2,377 $251 $31,211,140 19 - (-) The Intruder Sony Pictures $368,963 -43% 1,612 $229 $32,977,673 26 - (-) The Sun is Also a Star Warner Bros. $173,215 -28% 2,073 $84 $4,708,920 12 - (-) Poms STX Entertainment $165,741 -29% 911 $182 $12,764,516 19 - (-) UglyDolls STX Entertainment $95,951 -61% 1,090 $88 $19,206,201 26 - (-) The Curse of La Llorona Warner Bros. $61,842 -43% 359 $172 $54,015,614 40 - (-) Breakthrough 20th Century Fox $60,928 -57% 551 $111 $40,056,075 47 - (-) Dumbo Walt Disney $46,208 -58% 346 $134 $112,894,463 61 - (-) Captain Marvel Walt Disney $34,748 -60% 300 $116 $425,951,827 82 - (-) Shazam! Warner Bros. $32,243 -61% 283 $114 $138,637,385 54 - (-) Tolkien Fox Searchlight $23,372 -51% 189 $124 $4,402,951 19 - (-) Little Universal $21,445 -54% 183 $117 $40,523,635 47 - (-) India’s Most Wanted FIP $16,936 -16% 110 $154 $135,494 5 - (-) Penguins Walt Disney $13,902 +166% 60 $232 $7,472,549 42 - (-) The Souvenir A24 $12,868 -68% 23 $559 $304,210 12 - (-) How to Train Your Dragon: T… Universal $12,610 -65% 157 $80 $160,570,975 96 - (-) Us Universal $11,905 -45% 136 $88 $174,874,475 68 - (-) Pet Sematary Paramount Pictures $9,585 -50% 133 $72 $54,707,342 54 - (-) Missing Link United Artists $5,515 -65% 110 $50 $16,582,032 47 - (-) Hotel Mumbai Bleecker Street $4,568 -47% 30 $152 $9,597,282 68 - (-) Unplanned Pure Flix Entertain… $2,791 -59% 64 $44 $18,088,811 61 - (-) High Life A24 $2,661 +64% 14 $190 $1,223,725 54 - (-) The Tomorrow Man Bleecker Street $1,823 -72% 4 $456 $30,980 7 - (-) After Aviron Pictures $1,171 -4% 34 $34 $12,134,671 47 - (-) Frank and Ava Gravitas Ventures $96 -69% 2 $48 $17,599 173 -
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10 hours ago, Elessar said:
Because the team behind it is better.
I would consider Salvation better than T3.
Cameron's involvment might be smaller than we think and Tim Miller as a director is a wild card (he has only one full-length movie).
Salvation isn't alternate T3, it is sequel to T3. That's why I wasn't talk about it.
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1 hour ago, Elessar said:
And i'd be surprised if it's not better than that other T3...
Why? The Sarah Connor Chronicles wasn't better than T3, Genisys wasn't better than T3, now this is the third atempt to do alternate T3 and I don't see any reaseons why this one could beat Mostow's film.
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26 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:
Endgame
4.25
6.4
6.47 : 17.12
4.98 : 22.1
So Friday was better than Infinity War last year, but the rest a little bit lower. First decent hold since the second weekend for Endgame. Now lets see how it will survive Godzilla and Rocketman next weekend, X-Men and Pets a week later, and MiB4 and Shaft two weeks later, and so on. . .
So $803.4M yesterday for Endgame. Should be around at $808M by Thursday, maybe $816.5M by Sunday (-51% drop next weekend), slightly under $821M by the June 2nd, around $825M after its 7th weekend. Should cross $830 million in mid June. If Spider-Man premiere helps, it will finish with over $840M domestic, but if Disney do some double-features with The Lion King, even $850M is still possible.
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8 hours ago, meriodejaneiro said:
At this very same point last year, IW made also a 22M Memorial Day we, as Endgame has done. And IW added 51M domestic.
Why would Endgame add only 37M where IW added 53?
Because Inifnity War had better legs than Endgame? And weaker competition after Memorial Day last year?
Endgame has similar legs to Iron Man 3. IM3 also had Memorial Day weekend on May 24-27th, earn more $$$ during 3-day / 4 day weekend, and after that added around $36.2M domesti. With similar drops, Endgame may finish even slightly under $840 mln, but I think Spider-Man premiere will give the film couple of $$$ and it will be $841-845M.
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17 hours ago, stripe said:
Dark Fate won't bomb.
The same thing people were saying in 2015 before Genisys premiere.
My prediction after this (very bad) teaser trailer:
Opening weekend: $26 million
Domestic: $73 million
Overseas (-China): $205 million
China: $102 million
Worldwide: $380 million
Paramount has to do something (something great) in marketing for this film if they don't want to share Genisys' fate. Keeping saying this is the direct sequel to T2 (after two other direct sequels no one gives a shit anymore), showing Linda and James Cameron's name isn't enough. They must show the story, present the characters, just like Marvel did with Guardians of the Galaxy trailers. People will not go to see this film if they don't know what the story will be, and who are the new characters, and what happened to Sarah and Terminator for all this years. People won't go to see the film only because "it is another Terminator", cause this franchise failed them couple of times in the last 16 years.
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Now that's a good promotional picture.
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Is it fanart? Or is it official?
AVENGERS ENDGAME | 1939.4 M overseas ● 2797.8 M worldwide
in International Box Office
Posted
This Domestic number will be extremely hard to achieve.
Endgame's 6th weekend is $7.8 mln (est.), slightly more thank Infinity War's 7th weekend ($7.24M). IW added $23.7M after its 7th weekend. If Endgame add similar amount to its current number, it will finish with $839M. But the next weekend Endgame might drops another +50% against X-Men and Pets OW!
Lets see similar 6th weekends to Endgame, shall we. The LEGO Movie had $7.7M and added $20.8M later - with good legs, being another 24 weekend in cinemas. Deadpool's 6th weekend was $8M and the film added $22.1M later with pretty good holds in the next 10 weeks. Iron Man 3 (the movie with the most similar legs to Endgame in MCU) had stronger $8.44M 5th weekend (also May 31th-Jun 2nd) and added $23.8M after that to its domestic run.
I know, I know, Lego and Deadpool weren't summer movies (weaker mid-week days), but still, Endgame has much worse legs than them till this point. The film is going to add $20-24 mln after this weekend, maybe $25 mln if Spider-Man premiere really helps. If official number stick at $815.5M, Endgame is going to finish its domestic run with max. $840.5 mln. Even if Disney will do some big expansion in July or double-features with The Lion King (I don't think so, the movie is too freakin' long for double features, and Disney doesn't have any other title after July to do that) it would be almost impossible to add another $4.5M to get to $845M. $850 is dead.
My guess is:
Domestic: $837M
China: $629M
Foreign: $1.294B
Worldwide: $2.76B