Right now, I'm predicting $280M Dom and $570M WW in total of $850M. Youtube trailer views have been lackluster, just 6.9M views in 6 days. It does have a great release date though for families and the IP is still iconic. If it's really good, I can see it doing a billion. I don't see it coming close to 2019 Lion King though.
At best this movie would've broken even if it was great and had good marketing. This is an old franchise that no one under 45 cares about. Also, an absolutely ridiculous budget.
Outside of established IP his movies have largely not done well. His female fanbase did not show up for Bones & All which flopped despite having a relatively low budget.
People don't go to movies of celebrities anymore... The movie would've made the same amount of $$$ if a complete unknown was cast. Many movies with A-List casts have flopped. The era of movie star is largely over only a couple of people can bring audiences to the theater because of their name alone.