juni78ukr

It is likely overestimated. Hollywood couldnt catch up with our falling exchange rates.

They are much closer to russian mentality than Pixar works.

I think it will be pretty good if Madagascar 3 finish close to the second by admissions. It is very hard but doable. That will bring 55% increase in RUB thanks to much higher tickets prices. But compared to 2008 russian rouble right now dropped by 24%. So between 50 and 55 mln is a reasonable prediction for total. Between 20 and 23 mln for the opening, around 700 mln RUB or slightly more I suppose. Depends from the last moment advertising.Ice Age 4 has some advantage because it is more liked by teens and adults. Madagascar on the other hand is considered as a kids movie.

With free falling rouble it is very hard to predict anything. I don't think it will beat PoTC. In USD it is probably already out of question but in roubles it will be very tough too.

Looks like Madagascar 3 is going to break at least one record. My new e-mail said 1750+ screens.

Yes. Narnia 3 grossed 243.3 mln 1st weekend and 337m including previews.

http://kinometro.ru/blog/2012/06/thursday-may-31/Updated numbers.64.8 mln RUB for Prometheus and 36.6 mln RUB for MIB3 (-63.4%).

The hype outside fanboys and web crowd is almost non-existent. Battleship was plain and simple. At least nearly everyone played that game as a kid. This one is different. And most likely it will beat Battleship in RUB.

The thing is we don't have in Russia or Ukraine such rating sistems. I really doubt someone will stop 13 or 14 years old from going to Prometheus. And many parents don't care about this. Extreme sex scenes and extreme gore that's what they are afraid. Prometheus doesnt qualify here. Anyway so far its going to gross well above expectations.

First very rough estimate is 63 mln RUB. Slightly more than Battleship in local currency. But below in $ thanks to free falling russian rouble. Somewhere around $1.94mln by yesterday official exchange rate. By tomorrow rates it will be only $1.87mln. Could gross between 330-350 mln RUB for the weekend I guess. Around $10m.And Men in Black 3 dropped by 60%. Could have been worse actually I believe.

It is not a science where you can calcullate anything for many years in future. But it is always better to use knowledge, logic and common sense than throw some numbers just out of thin air. And trust me, I'm really good in using that. Been a box office writer for last 6 years on the biggest russian movie site give some advantage here.

I already said Madagascar 2 had everything for huge suceess. The best possible date with school and national holidays. Totally empty market on opening week. And in late 2008 the market already grew enough compared to 2006 or 2007. Even with the same opening in admissions it will make 55% more gross thanks to higher ticket prices (in RUB). I think Ice Age could increase a bit in admissions but for Madagascar 3 that will be really tough job.

You are really stubborn. In 2011 only 4 movies broke into top 20 by admission. And the highest of them PoTC4 from the most popular Hollywood franchise had 7.43m admissions. Puss in Boots was a well liked and popular character here and still had "only" 6.8m admissions. Transformers 3 and The Breaking Dawn also belonged to huge franchises and still barely broke 5m admissions.John Carter is currently #2 for 2012 by gross but only has 3.75m admissions. Even The Avengers with its huge success wont pass 5m admissions. The growth of Russian film market right now is mostly because of sky high ticket prices. Increase in admissions last year was slim (4.5%). And this increase wasnt created by blockbusters.Here it's pretty much like in US where 1500 or 2000 theaters always make 70-80% of gross.You can increase screen count, put your movie on every screen but it wouldn't help really much. You will just make angry theater owners and other distributors.The most optimistic predictions for Madagascar 2 and Ice Age 3 are around 1800mln RUB. And that's around 7.5 mln admisions max.

Increase in gross quite possible but in admissions you might be asking too much. Madagascar 2 had school hoidays and national holidays on week 2. It helped very much. It had 841 screens, quite a good number for that time. 1200, 1400 or even 1600 that's cool but it doesn't make really big differenceAnd you are forgetting one thing. When Madagascar 2 was released $1 was around 27 RUB. But right now russian rouble plunged nearly by 10% and today 1USD cost more than 33RUB. Once again about admissions. The Avengers made huge money and right now moved to #7 or #8 all-time by gross. But it is only #19 or #20 by admissions.

Huge opening is much more likely here in late spring or maybe in autumn. Right now too many teens and young people have final exams.

Updated screen count: 1645.2nd best after PoTC4Advertising is really huge. It's a big wild card with good potential to surprise.

Looks like MiB3 was significantly overestimated. Still the best opening of the year and 4th all-time. Nothing to be ashamed of.Weekend estimates:1. Men in Black 3 16,985,341 (533 mln RUB)2. Chernobyl Diaries 1,464,7863. Dictator 1,061,185 - 4,596,514 (-57,3%)4. Dark Shadows 637,349 - 10,835,290 (-71,6%)5. The Avengers 574,394 - 42,468,420 (-79,8%)6. Lockout 441,444 - 2,565,733 (-71,1%)7. What to Expect When You're Expecting 286,411 - 1,107,513 (-48,7%)8. The Lucky One 191,205 - 806,972 (-53,1%)

From the mail I just received:Prometheus 1500+Madagascar 3 1500+ Snow White and The Huntsman 1000+Brave 700+Magic Mike 700+The Amazing Spider-Man 1000+

I was on one week trip to Moscow. Partly for my personal business, partly to meet some friends from kinopoisk where I work for more than 6 years.Saw a lot of advertising on streets for Men in Black 3, Prometheus and Snow White and the Huntsman.

A tough question. The common opinion here is that building new theaters in medium sized cities will not increase drastically box office grosses. That those new theaters will have hard time to recoup expenses and become profitable. That's why the growth here somewhat slowed. The piracy is also rampant so films are often released on DVD after a month in theaters or even less. Obviously current number of screens is not enough. But general awareness is very low, particularly outside of big cities. Our distributors will go with massive advertising only for action blockbusters or for films with recognizable big stars. Sometimes for local films. Because of low awareness, lack of advertising and overcrowded marketplace at least half of wide releases are dead on arrival. But building new theaters alone is certainly not enough. You have to think also how to bring new people there. And outside of big cities salaries are usually much lower but ticket prices are pretty much the same.

Because of 5 wide releases which took screens and shows. Dictator 985 screensLockout 644 screensThe Lucky One 358 screensWhat to Expect... 256 screensTarbosaur 3D 408 screensThose films require 2651 screens on Thursday with at least two shows per day for each one. And the market can provide only 2700 screens or so. That's why movies die so fast here. The market is always overcrowded.

Usually Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday grosses are not much different from last Thursday. Probably between 15 and 25% less on average. And then on next Thursday with several new releases always comes a big plunge.Last Thursday The Avengers had $1.05m so it's quite possible to gross $0.8m on average Monday-Wednesday. And only $0.387m on this Thursday.

http://kinometro.ru/blog/2012/05/sbory-chetverga-zriteli-vy-brali-diktatora/Somehow The Avengers made nearly $3m Monday-Thursday. I was a little surprised but those are official numbers. Even Dark Shadows made $2.2 Monday-Thursday. Weekdays grew much stronger in last two weeks. And summer holidays are just around the corner. Usually May 25 is a final day of a school year here.

So we can continue now thenGrosses (compared to 2011 fiscal year)December: 2011 $106.97 vs $53.41January 2012 $130.36 vs $140.1February 2012 $85.03 vs $68.58March 2012 $146.18 vs $88.94April 2012 $86.03 vs $75.21Total: $552.07 vs $426.24 (+29.5%)Admissions:December 15,894,502 vs 7,711,840January 18,485,003 vs 20,134,078February 11,342,729 vs 9,990,390March 19,434,116 vs 13,446,739April 11,460,398 vs 10,521,734Total for 5 months: 76,616,748 vs 61,804,781 (+24%).

I believe I posted here monthly numbers from December to March. April was rather quiet but still well above last year numbers.