It might be even worse. In America or Europe at least anyone have a movie theater within a reasonable distance. In Russia you can have an oblast (administrative division) with territory like Austria, Belgium or Switzerland with 1 or 2 movie theaters in the administrative center only. And I am talking about European Part, not about Ural, Siberia or Far East. Many cities with population between 100,000-200,000 have no modern movie theater at all. And very very few with population below 100,000. I have read last year that around 950 towns and cities in Germany have at least one local movie theater. Here in Russia it probably less than 200. But even a lot of people in Moscow or Saint Petersburg do not go to movies at all. Some believe its too expensive or dont like rude crowds there. The others are quite happy with TV or download anything via internent. And some might be working too hard so they are just relaxing and dont go anywhere on weekends.
What they are supposed to do? Make a revolution? Let me say this. Only a small part of general population goes to movies at all. In 2001 174m tickets were sold for about 180m population (Russia+Belarus+Kazakstan and others). Less than 1 ticket for a person. But many people could go to movies every month or even more often. Lets call them frequent moviegoers. Those are mostly young people.The current grow of russian film market mostly based on those frequent moviegoers. Not much on new people coming to theaters. Standards of life definitely imroved in last years but not enough to validate high ticket prices. However fan driven frequent moviegoers are more willing to spend their money now even with ticket prices up to 8-10$. They already created a habit before and can't drop it now. Their precentage is rather small but they are a driven force of our film market. But even them recently started to complain about unreasonably high ticket prices. I think the ceiling is already reached and it will makle serious troubles for a further grow.
There is still a chance Madagascar 3 wiil make close to $50m. For some reason opening weekend is deflated. Only 4.2 multipluyer is really bad even with working Saturday. The real question now is how much it will gross on Monday and Tuesday. But without daily numbers it's hard to say anything.
It is also important because our distributors are always complaining that theaters underreport tickets sales. That theaters steal a fair part of grosses. Some believe that it accounts up to 30-40% of real ticket sales. The others give different estimates between 5 and 15%. But so far no one was able to prove anything.
Only Rentrak but it's a paid servise. And those few who are subscribed rarely want to tell us such things.There is a law about electronic tickets selling system which should be installed in every movie theater. But many theater owners dont want to waste their money for such things and russian government doesnt press them really much.
How exactly Mad3 in summer supposed to make 70m after 20-22m opening weekend? 3.5 multipluyer is totally unreasonable in Russia. Even 3.0 would be something out of this world. Even with 30-32m 6 days it will have no chance to make as much till the end. Kung Fu Panda 2 2.33Cars 2 2.11Shrek Forever After 2.6
We are rather conservative here. Too many different things like a working Saturday and those holidays. And we don't have a full base of daily numbers. Actually Monday and Tuesday could be higher so 1 billion RUB in 6 days is quite possible.
Thursday estimates:1. Madagascar 3 $3,965,0002. Prometheus $671,000 (-66%)3. Men in Black 3 — $320,000 (-72%)4. The Dictator — $15,0005. The Avengers $12,000.
All my friends went to Kinotavr and Russian Film Market in Sochi. Because of that dead silence is everywhere. Even kinometro havent got weekend predictions so far.
It's a little bit better with actuals but still 58.4% in RUB and 60% and USD. 1. Prometheus 325,898,995 RUB - $10,043,1122. Men in Black 3 221,005,577-920,391,467 RUB $6,810,650 - $29,330,512...The Avengers $231,217 - $43,018,836
No, the school year already ended. But small kids usually go to movies with parents and that is the issue here. And football match on Friday also could hurt a little box office. Prometheus as I expected was overestimated. As well as Men in Black 3. 9.8m and 6.65m respectively. The third is The Dictator with 0.42m
I just realized that russians will have again a working Saturday this week. It is also decreasing Madagascar 3 chances for the new opening weekend record. But Monday and Tuesday will be holidays.