Gopher

It's mostly rock solid, but at times feels a little flimsy. The actors really give it their all, but I don't know, some of them seemed out of it. It really does peter out by the end. (but seriously, I'd give it a B)

155% to a 19m Friday.

I called 10.85m for its Monday so it's meeting my projections fine. Still going to drop 55%-60% this weekend (which is good).

Naw, it was fantastic. Two hours of everything I love about Mad Men (notice how Betty wasn't in this episode...).

Oh yeah... this. I'll get to it, eventually.

This is a great review. He makes a lot of true points, but I'll just quote one I really resonated with- The book has a scope that measures up to Potter or LOTR, but nothing in the movie really showed this. Maybe Lionsgate will write them a blank check for Catching Fire and the next movie will feel grandiose. But that's not the big problem- as long as these movies are PG-13, then they just won't be as effective as they should be.

Spizzer, it won't drop 5.6% on Wednesday... take a look at most Wednesday drops nowadays.

My weekday projections (critique away):Monday: 10.85m (-69%) Tuesday: 10.25m (-5.5%) Wednesday: 7.75m (-24.5%) Thursday: 7.45m (-4%) 190.3m opening week 19m Friday (155%) (-72.1% from last Friday, -60.4% w/o midnights)27m Saturday (42%) (-43.8% from last Saturday) 18m Sunday (-33%) (-48.6% from last Sunday) 64m weekend (-58.4%), 254.3m total The Sunday drop doesn't bode well for its Monday hold, only because this is a 4-quad movie and a lot of its audience has school or work this week. Tuesday will be nice because of discounts and Wednesday/tThursday will be normal holds. Then Friday shoots back up and it has a good second weekend. With that trajectory, it wouldn't reach 400m. It would get close, though, and DH2 is probably a reasonable target.

That is all.

Third season was even better than the second. It's such a funny show.

I won't dispute how the muttations that the Capitol put in the games worked. However, sending them as the final fight for Katniss and Peeta was lame in the book and lamer in the movie. My thoughts are a bit jumbled right now. Overall I mostly liked the movie- the performances are strong all around, save Rue and Cato- but there's a lot of problems. Obviously they had to work around the PG-13 rating (and just wait until they get to Mockingjay!) but that horrendous shaky cam wasn't anything more than a distraction. The District 11 riots would have been the best scene in the movie if I could see what the hell was going on. Nothing in the District 12 or Hunger Games scenes was very effective- the Katniss/Rue relationship was awkwardly cut down, so the emotional punch wasn't really there- and that camera only made matters worse. Bottom line, it entertains and Lawrence is quite good (even though there's no character development). But a gutty, no-holds-barred Hunger Games would have been more effective as a film and an adaptation. I know why that couldn't happen, but the point stands. B- Also, how great was Woody Harrelson?

All it needs is a 22.5% drop today for TDK to fall, providing the Saturday/Friday estimates hold.

The fact that we could have a March movie feisably break 400m is stupefying.

The ''movies can open huge in March!'' idea has been around for a long time. Even before Ice Age 2. What Hunger Games confirms is that it doesn't matter when you release it, they will come if they want to see it. I believe that every weekend in the calendar year, except the weekend after labor day and super bowl weekend, can house a record-breaking opening. Just depends on the movie and the narketing campaign.

Oh dear. This is just batshit insane.

The "War is Coming" poster is on every other billboard in LA. It's getting me really excited for April 1st.

7.93 average admission, 3.50 3D surcharge, 44% 3D share. I get around 17.85m tickets sold. I know average admission includes some 3D surcharge but it seems like HG will reasonably pass DH2's admissions if the Saturday estimate holds.

Potter and Twilight had massive but very finite audiences domestically (I would argue they even do worldwide, too). Their admissions would fluctuate between films, sure, but at the end of the day Potter's audience never grew past the first movie and Twilight's audience never grew past the second. The exciting thing about Hunger Games is that we have no idea what size its audience really is yet. It's far more of a four-quadrant franchise than Twilight and maybe even Potter. Could Catching Fire actually increase upon this debut? Or is this the pinnacle of HG's hype/

No. SM3's -22.2% Sunday decline is the best case scenario. This is still March, less people are free next week than in the summer, so late shows won't be as crowded.

An opening just above 150m means Hunger Games sells more tickets than DH2 because of 3D (my estimates have HG at 19m admissions and Potter just below 18m). It's only behind TDK and SM3 in terms of total OW admissions by a few million. Domestically, we can settle one argument- what's more popular, Potter or Twilight. The answer is The Hunger Games.

I was thinking 48m Saturday, 36m Sunday for a 152m weekend. 49m/35m works fine too.

Small movies are struggling this year, though. We've seen at least one good opening every weekend so far this year, but less profiled movies aren't being given a chance. Look at the arthouse this year, we don't even have a Jane Eyre or a Win Win yet.

375m from a 152m weekend seems reasonable, unlike DH2 or TDK this doesn't have crucially important summer weekdays to boost its multiplier. That's still as much as DH2 made and this doesn't have 3D. ABSOLUTE INSANITY

I think it's gonna fall over 60% next weekend but level out over Easter and through April. I'm sure it'll get a lot of repeat views from fans but if DH2 is any reference those don't really start until later in the run. March domestic total record (Alice's 330m) is going to fall. Titans is so underperforming next weekend. I'm sure theaters are kicking themselves because they have to give over their HG IMAX screenings to it.

No AA, don't go! Solid hold for 21JS. A 20m+ second weekend in the face of THG is strong. Everything else falls quite a bit. Where will Carter end up? 75m?