redfirebird2008

By "typical," what do you mean? For crying out loud, the movie wasn't a "typical" Friday or Saturday performer either.

And SM1's run. Hunger Games opening is awesome. Stunning for a movie that most expected to make around half of that on its opening to explode the way it did.

Not in ticket sales.

Indeed. Awful site performance right now. I just tried to post this and apparently it didn't go through:Speaking of great box office runs, E.T. just came on AMC for anyone who is interested.

It'll probably be in between the two.

Speaking of which, SM3 gives a pretty good idea of the floor for THG. Should cruise past $350m based on how SM3 performed with far weaker WOM and also based on the fact that THG is not a sequel.

Didn't some guy troll the forums by posting a fake number, and then the real number came in way closer than anyone expected?

Nikki's post on Sunday night that it was doing way better than WB expected was the first clear sign of legs. Then Monday solidified it. The most impressive thing about TDK was the legs, not the opening. Twilight and Potter have both crushed it on opening day, etc. but ended up falling way short of its domestic total.

Or it just has a much better Sunday than expected, like TDK did. TDK's Sunday morning estimate was $155m, but it went up to $158m because Sunday was underestimated by $4m (sold out a ton of late night shows) and its Friday estimate went down $1m with the actual.

I'd wait to see it before supporting it like that. Remember SM3? Piece of shit record breaker if there ever was one. Same thing could happen with TDKR.

Exactly.

Don't worry. DH2 has a big fat 3D asterisk next to it. Noctis is probably depressed right now that the final Potter flick with months of "epic" hype from WB is going to end up selling less tickets than a movie that basically came out nowhere in the last month or so.

:lol:Have to agree with this. Death to Spidey!

I'm talking 6-8 year olds. I saw one group that had a middle-aged lady and about 30 little kids. That experience directly impacted my view on TDK when everyone started throwing around insane predictions for it. Didn't think it could appeal to enough kids under 10 to challenge SM3. Likewise with THG. I haven't read it or seen it, but the premise definitely doesn't seem made for kids under 10.

Won't be surprised if it opens bigger than TDKR. I'm predicting $160m for that one and won't be surprised if it goes a bit lower. THG is tracking at $155+ million right now based on the first two days. Could hit $160m.

Isn't THG's audience much older? That's what is more impressive to me. When I think of big Saturdays, I think of family-oriented stuff like Shrek or Spidey. I saw SM3 on Friday afternoon the day it came out, and the audience was loaded with kids under the age of 10. I figure Saturday was probably even more loaded with little kids. For something like THG that doesn't inherently appeal to kids to make this kind of cash on a Saturday is awesome.

Then what, the world will end? Oh wait, it's 2012...

Speaking of which, even using CPI (conservative estimate for inflation) puts SM3 at $56.4m. I do think THG hitting $50m is more impressive though.

It's not just Nikki. In the case of TDK and DH2, the studio itself overestimated the Friday numbers. The Sundays for both of them ended up being stronger than projected on Sunday morning, so it canceled out the overestimated Friday. TDK's Friday was $1m too high, but its total went up $3m because the Sunday projection was $4m too low. The Saturday for both TDK and DH2 was pretty accurate if I remember right, so $50-52m will likely end up being the actual for THG. If the Friday number drops $1m like TDK and DH2 did, then that just makes the Saturday increase even BETTER. Of course, we won't know if the Friday estimate is good until Monday so we will already know the Sunday drop as well. Going to be interesting to see what it can do Sunday.

The flip side is the Friday estimate might not hold. Both TDK and DH2's Friday estimates (originally reported on Saturday) ended up being adjusted down with actuals on Monday. If I remember right, TDK's Sunday actual jumped around $4m from the Sunday morning estimate after it sold out a ton of late night shows that WB wasn't expecting.

DH2 was sub-20%, but TDK was sub-10%. March is a tough time for Sunday drops. THG will do very well to get in the same neighborhood as SM3's 22% Sunday drop in early May (also a tough time for Sunday drops). A drop lower than that would be insane. But the first two days have been insane, so...

Which record?EDIT: Never mind. You mean SM3's Saturday record. I was thinking weekend.