mahnamahna

That would be excellent for both. FD on pace for $450 million+ DOM Central Intelligence on pace for $160 million+ DOM

Finding Dory - $134 million Central Intelligence - $51 million

The Shallows targeting part of the horror demo. Every sequel for Summer 2016 other than Civil War, Conjuring 2 and most likely Finding Dory underperforming big time. Tarzan, BFG, ID42, Central Intelligence, Shallows, Dory and Free State of Jones will all be vying for screens that weekend. Most horror franchises decline by the third film. It also has a lot more competition than Purge 2 (July 2014 was very barren, whereas July 2016 has SLoP, Ghostbusters, IA5, Star Trek 3, Bourne and Bad Moms)

6/17-6/19 Finding Dory: $134.5 million Central Intelligence: $45.5 million The Conjuring 2: $17 million ($72 million) Now You See Me 2: $10.5 million ($42 million) Warcraft: $8.5 million ($40 million) Me Before You: $6 million ($47 million) TMNT 2: $6 million ($72 million) X-Men - Apocalypse: $4.5 million ($144 million) Alice Through the Looking Glass: $2.5 million ($67 million) The Angry Birds Movie: $2.5 million ($102 million) 6/24-6/26 Finding Dory: $81 million ($287 million) Independence Day - Resurgence: $74 million Central Intelligence: $28 million ($96 million) Free State of Jones: $11 million The Conjuring 2: $8 million ($87 million) Now You See Me 2: $6.5 million ($54 million) Me Before You: $4 million ($54 million) Warcraft: $3.5 million ($47 million) TMNT 2: $3 million ($78 million) X-Men - Apocalypse: $2.5 million ($153 million) 7/1-7/4 Finding Dory: $44 million/$57.5 million ($388 million) Independence Day - Resurgence: $32 million/$44 million ($150 million) The BFG: $27 million/$34 million Central Intelligence: $19 million/$23.5 million ($138 million) The Legend of Tarzan: $15 million/$18.5 million The Purge - Election Year: $13 million/$15 million The Shallows: $8 million/$9.5 million ($15 million) Free State of Jones: $7.5 million/$8.5 million ($27 million) Now You See Me 2: $4 million/$4.75 million ($62 million) Me Before You: $3 million/$3.5 million ($60 million) 7/8-7/10 The Secret Lives of Pets: $86 million Finding Dory: $20 million ($421 million) Independence Day - Resurgence: $16 million ($174 million) The BFG: $11.5 million ($52 million) Central Intelligence: $10 million ($153 million) Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates: $8.5 million The Legend of Tarzan: $6 million ($28 million) The Purge - Election Year: $5 million ($23 million) Free State of Jones: $4.5 million ($35 million) The Shallows: $4 million ($21 million) 7/15-7/17 Ghostbusters: $60.5 million The Secret Lives of Pets: $53 million ($191 million) Finding Dory: $13.5 million ($447 million) Independence Day - Resurgence: $9.5 million ($192 million) The BFG: $8 million ($68 million) Central Intelligence: $5 million ($162 million) The Infiltrator: $4.5 million The Legend of Tarzan: $3.5 million ($35 million) Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates: $3.5 million ($15 million) Free State of Jones: $3 million ($41 million)

With $7-10 million next weekend and a little less than that in dailies, it'll probably inch across. Why? It'll stabilize over the next couple weeks and end up with $50-60 million DOM on a low budget. Not a bad result.

Don't see Finding Dory disappointing. Angry Birds and Alice 2 never hit it off, so there's plenty of room for a new family film (or two)

If they're good and open to $20-25 million, they could. I think there'll be some original breakouts at some point this summer. Those two are in a great position, along with Central Intelligence. I'm not saying they're a lock, but there's always a couple films no one expects to do $75 million+ DOM. I'd rather predict those to be sleepers than the meh sequels

Don't see Purge 3 doing that well since Shallows targets a similar demo and audiences will have Dory, ID42, CI and BFG to choose from. Not to mention Tarzan hogging screens. If Conjuring 2 gets a $50 million decline, no way Purge 3 increases by $5 million. Bad Moms and The Founder could sneak in and do $100 million+ DOM since adult-skewing films tend to succeed in August. Pretty reasonable list, but I think the above two will surpass Conjuring 2 and make the top 15. $45-55 million DOM is solid for MBY $75-105 million DOM is solid for Conjuring 2 since OS will be solid, too. Conjuring 2 is going to do $75 million+ so it'll be in the top 15. Warcraft could sneak in if Father's Day helps it next weekend.

Which is probably what will be the case with La La Land/Moana. It's not often there's a decent, original live-action musical released by Hollywood anymore, so if La La Land gets some BP/BD buzz, I expect it to win Best Original Song easily.

Me Before You holding well isn't too shocking - only female-skewing film since Mother's Day and not another one until Ghostbusters, solid WOM and everything's been underperforming big time.

The Blind Side did $250 million+ DOM and barely $50 million OS.

I was just pointing out the general range for all of them. I expect most to fall toward the middle of those ranges.

TMNT 2: $75-95 million DOM The Conjuring 2: $90-120 million DOM Central Intelligence: $130-230 million DOM (could see this being a huge breakout hit) The BFG: $70-110 million DOM. Ghostbusters: $80 million-180 million DOM. Ice Age - Collision Course: $80-130 million DOM Bad Moms: $60-110 million DOM The Founder: $70-120 million DOM. Pete's Dragon: $75-135 million DOM. Sausage Party: $60-100 million DOM. All could end up $75 million+ DOM, plus there's some solid hits beyond that. X-Men: $145-165 million DOM. Independence Day 2: $150-250 million DOM. Star Trek Beyond: $135-185 million DOM. Jason Bourne: $160-260 million DOM. And some blockbusters Finding Dory: $275-475 million DOM. The Secret Lives of Pets: $175-350 million DOM. Suicide Squad: $225-325 million DOM. After Finding Dory, there's really nothing that I can see completely consuming the market. There's some breathing room for some mid-range hits.

Spider-Man was very well-received in Civil War (one of the bright spots), so that's a pretty safe bet. Wonder Woman is fairly safe since she and Batfleck were the bright spots of BvS. If the budget isn't $200 million+, it'll probably succeed. DM3 will be successful no matter what since the budget will be $70-80 million like all of the other Illumination movies. But yeah most of the summer movies are somewhat risky. I could see every thing else doing sub-$175 million DOM besides those four.

Angry Birds could still do $110 million+ DOM if it holds decently next weekend. TMNT 2 has kid appeal, so a 40% drop isn't shocking. Conjuring, NYSM and Warcraft all lack kid appeal, so it ought to get one decent hold in before Dory opens.

TMNT 2 on its way to $90-95 million DOM. X-Men - Apocalypse, Alice 2, Angry Birds and Neighbors 2 are still having terrible legs. Civil War will finish above $400 million DOM, but barely. Me Before You should become a leggy hit with no competition for quite some time. I could see $60-70 million DOM. Hopefully, Conjuring 2 can surprise with a $50-55 million OW and Warcraft opens with $30 million+. The BO needs something good to cheer for

Plus, it the first Warner animated film since LEGO Movie, so they'll be sure to emphasize that. $140-160 million DOM is a reasonable expectation (much smaller than LEGO but comparable to HT1/2)

Nice to see a low-budget film on pace for $50 million+ DOM. Summer 2016 needs some of these smaller success stories with Alice 2 bombing hard, TMNT 2 disappointing big time, X-Men going under expectations and Neighbors 2/Civil War/Angry Birds having pretty terrible legs.

1. TMNT 2: $43 million 2. The Conjuring 2: $46 million 3. Finding Dory: $124 million 4. Central Intelligence: $47 million 5. Independence Day - Resurgence: $81 million 6. The Secret Lives of Pets: $73 million 7. Ghostbusters: $41 million 8. Star Trek Beyond: $67 million 9. Jason Bourne: $58 million 10. Suicide Squad: $127.5 million 11. The Magnificent Seven: $41.5 million 12. Storks: $48 million 13. Doctor Strange: $79.5 million 14. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them: $102 million 15. Moana: $64.5 million 16. Rogue One: $112 million 17. Passengers: $40.5 million

TMNT 2 - $44 million Me Before You - $23.5 million Popstar - $6 million

There're some weird predicts by BO.com this week. Only $27 million for TMNT 2?? Jungle Book not even in the top 10?? It did $7 million this last weekend... how is it going to drop below $2.5 million? Everything else seems about right, but those two are just so out of left field

Universal must think this will be the breakout comedy of Summer 2017 if they'd move Pitch Perfect 3 to December 2017.

The box office is weak right now because the movies out leave much to be desired. Alice Through the Looking Glass had no marketing campaign and is unwanted. X-Men - Apocalypse is bloated. Neighbors 2 is mediocre and like most comedy sequels, destined to decline from its predecessor Nice Guys is niche Angry Birds came after Zootopia/JB/CW so families are probably taking a break until Finding Dory Money Monster is doing about what anyone would expect. If Hollywood released more decent movies with GA appeal, the BO would be better than it is now. I think June and July leave more to be optimistic about. This month, CW (and AB to a small degree) are the only real success stories. June-July should see at least 5 success stories between the two of them.

6/3-6/5 TMNT 2: $53.5 million Me Before You: $24 million X-Men - Apocalypse: $21.5 million ($112 million) Alice Through the Looking Glass: $12.5 million ($52 million) The Angry Birds Movie: $11 million ($85 million) Popstar: $8 million Captain America - Civil War: $7 million ($387 million) The Jungle Book: $4 million ($345 million) The Nice Guys: $3.5 million ($28 million) Neighbors - Sorority Rising: $3 million ($46 million) 6/10-6/12 The Conjuring 2: $48 million Warcraft: $34 million TMNT 2: $23.5 million ($94 million) Now You See Me 2: $15 million Me Before You: $14 million ($48 million) X-Men - Apocalypse: $10 million ($129 million) The Angry Birds Movie: $8 million ($98 million) Alice Through the Looking Glass: $7 million ($64 million) Captain America - Civil War: $4 million ($394 million) Popstar: $3 million ($13 million) 6/17-6/19 Finding Dory: $130.5 million Central Intelligence: $59.5 million Warcraft: $12 million ($57 million) TMNT 2: $10 million ($113 million) Me Before You: $9 million ($64 million) Now You See Me 2: $7 million ($28 million) X-Men - Apocalypse: $5.5 million ($139 million) Alice Through the Looking Glass: $5 million ($73 million) The Angry Birds Movie: $3 million ($104 million) Captain America - Civil War: $2.5 million ($398 million) 6/24-6/26 Finding Dory: $81 million ($284 million) Independence Day - Resurgence: $73 million Central Intelligence: $36 million ($128 million) Free State of Jones: $7 million Me Before You: $6 million ($75 million) TMNT 2: $5 million ($122 million) Warcraft: $4.5 million ($66 million) Now You See Me 2: $3.5 million ($34 million) X-Men - Apocalypse: $3 million ($145 million) Alice Through the Looking Glass: $2.5 million ($78 million) 7/1-7/4 Finding Dory: $44 million/$55 million ($382 million) Independence Day - Resurgence: $33 million/$43 million ($148 million) The BFG: $29 million/$36 million Central Intelligence: $23 million/$28 million ($178 million) The Legend of Tarzan: $16.5 million/$20 million The Purge - Election Year: $14 million/$16.5 million The Shallows: $12 million/$14 million ($25 million) Free State of Jones: $4.5 million/$5.5 million ($17 million) Me Before You: $4 million/$5 million ($84 million) TMNT 2: $2.5 million/$3 million ($127 million)