mahnamahna

Inside Out: A+ Ant-Man: A Minions: A- Jurassic World: A- Avengers - Age of Ultron: A- Pixels: B+ Paddington: B+ McFarland, USA: B Vacation: B SpongeBob 2: B- Tomorrowland: C+ The Wedding Ringer: C Kingsman: C- Hot Tub Time Machine 2: D+ Chappie: F Mortdecai: F Still need to see Cinderella It Follows Ex Machina Mad Max - Fury Road Spy Dope Me and Earl and the Dying Girl Trainwreck Irrational Man Mr. Holmes Paper Towns Southpaw LEGO Brickumentary Mission Impossible - Rogue Nation Shaun the Sheep Movie Ricki and the Flash The Fantastic Four Straight Outta Compton Everest Black Mass Hotel Transylvania 2 Sicario The Walk The Martian Steve Jobs Goosebumps Crimson Peak Bridge of Spies Suffragette The Peanuts Movie Mockingjay Part 2 The Good Dinosaur The Night Before Creed Midnight Special The Danish Girl Trumbo In the Heart of the Sea Sisters Star Wars Episode VII Daddy's Home The Revenant Carol Joy The Hateful Eight

Other than MI5 this weekend is pretty much awful Vacation is doing far better than expected after its first two days. Could leg its way to $65-70 million depending on how audiences respond to it. $55-60m more likely Hopefully F4 does open to $55-60 million like tracking suggests.

The Revenant The Hateful Eight Joy In the Heart of the Sea Concussion Snowden Point Break Sisters The Danish Girl All of which target the older adults who flock to Mission Impossible films to some degree. Dec 2011 was kids movies and Sherlock 2. It's Star Wars and all of those that would make things far too difficult for MI5

8/7-8/9 The Fantastic Four: $34.5 million Mission Impossible 5: $29 million ($111 million) Ricki and the Flash: $11 million Shaun the Sheep: $10.5 million Vacation: $10 million ($38 million) Trainwreck: $8 million ($93 million) Ant-Man: $7 million ($145 million) Minions: $6.5 million ($299 million) Pixels: $6 million ($57 million) The Gift: $5 million 8/14-8/16 Straight Outta Compton: $46 million The Fantastic Four: $18 million ($65 million) Mission Impossible 5: $17 million ($140 million) The Man From UNCLE: $14 million Ricki and the Flash: $8.5 million ($24 million) Shaun the Sheep: $8 million ($21 million) Trainwreck: $7 million ($105 million) Vacation: $6.5 million ($49 million) Ant-Man: $4.5 million ($152 million) Underdogs: $4 million 8/21-8/23 Straight Outta Compton: $20.5 million ($79 million) Sinister 2: $12 million Mission Impossible 5: $11 million ($157 million) The Fantastic Four: $10.5 million ($81 million) Hitman - Agent 47: $7 million American Ultra: $6.5 million The Man From UNCLE: $6 million ($24 million) Ricki and the Flash: $6 million ($33 million) Shaun the Sheep: $5.5 million ($28 million) Trainwreck: $5 million ($113 million) 8/28-8/30 We Are Your Friends: $17 million Straight Outta Compton: $11 million ($96 million) Regression: $8.5 million Mission Impossible 5: $8 million ($169 million) The Fantastic Four: $7 million ($91 million) Sinister 2: $4.5 million ($19 million) Shaun the Sheep: $4.5 million ($33 million) Ricki and the Flash: $4 million ($39 million) Trainwreck: $4 million ($119 million) American Ultra: $3.5 million ($12 million)

Should get a 3.5x-4x from its $9 million weekend due to zero competition for comedies and solid WOM plus the inevitable Labor Day boost. Possibly a 4.5x if legs really start to kick in. Pretty much good except AM should do at least $155 million DOM.

50% is a bit much considering how relatively barren next weekend looks F4 at $35-40 million. MI5 at $25-30 million. Shaun/Ricki at $8-10 million. Gift at $4-5 million. It already burnt off some demand already. I'd say a 35-40% drop, but 50% would be pretty dismal. $40-45 million with that kind of drop

There's zero comedy competition (other than Trainwreck's remaining $25-35 million) until October 9th. And it had a really big Friday increase, which shows WOM among GA will be better than critics. $75-80 million might be a bit much, but with how little competition there is, it's certainly wouldn't be a shock. Especially if F4 opens sub-$40 million, Compton sub-$30 million and UNCLE sub-$20 million. I'd say $60 million at the very least with how barren August 2015 is. But $50-55 million is probably most likely $51 million would be kinda bad considering how empty August looks. F4: $90-110 million DOM Compton: $70-90 million DOM UNCLE/Ricki: $40-60 million DOM MI5 could very well be the only film that makes more than $100 million DOM this month if F4 opens sub-$40 million I'm hoping for $60 million+ just to brighten the outlook for the rest of 2015. Vacation. Both are R-rated comedies. It only makes sense it would drop 40%+ this weekend. It'll have 15-30% drops until Labor Day, so it should still cross $100 million DOM and then some.

$14-14.5 million 3 day is good for Vacation considering how bad its Wed/Thurs was. Might leg its way to $75-80m with how little competition there is this August.

September 18 has three decent looking films, but yes if MI5 gets $50 million+ OW it should leg it's way to $150m+ DOM due to small competition for the most part

This weekend is looking rough for a prime July frame. Top 5 could potentially do $84 million, with the top 10 at $120-125 million. Hopefully August has a solid breakout of some kind. We might just have to wait until mid/late September for the BO to be exciting again, though

Most likely $0.75-0.8 million for JW, and $1.0-1.1 million for IO. Just an educated guess based on a 25-30% drop

Well really F4, Ricki, Compton and UNCLE are July-August 2015 could go low enough, where I just might consider making a Sep-Oct 2015 over July-August 2015 club. Seriously August should be almost dead if MI5/F4 open sub-$40 million, Compton opens sub-$30 million, Vacation can't even manage $20 million 5 day, and Ricki/UNCLE open sub-$20 million. And Sep-Oct has an extremely compelling lineup - a lot of films that should do solid or possibly even breakout.

Technically I didn't. But I understand it's quite a bit generous. $1.2 million previews $5.8 million Wed $4.8 million Thurs $7.5 million Fri $10 million Sat $7 million Sun $36.3 million 5-day A 30% drop with previews is about right, especially since this isn't a frontloaded-type film. I do agree that $28-30 million 5 day is a better expectation than mid 30s for the 5 day.

$1.2 million previews $5.8 million Wed $5.5 million Thurs ($12.5 million Thurs) $8.4 million Fri $11.3 million Sat $7.6 million Sun ($39.8 million 5-day ) $27.3 million might be bullish for the weekend, but the dead marketplace and MI5 not exactly tracking high should help this out. We're the Millers had a far more crowded marketplace/OW than Vacation.

Pretty good, especially since this will be a casual walkup/WOM kind of film. Mid 20s 5 day should happen at the very least

Best-case for IO: $6 million ($331 million) $4.5 million ($339 million) $3 million ($344 million) $2.5 million ($347 million) $2 million ($349 million) $2.75 million/$3.5 million ($353 million) $1.5 million ($355 million) $1 million ($356 million) $0.5 million ($357 million) $2-3 million from dollar-theater run ($359-360 million) That's really a best-case scenario, though. $353-355 million is my more conservative guess unless it has sub-25% drops until post-Labor Day.

If it follows its typical weekdays/weekends, it should end up with $5.5-6 million this weekend, especially since MI5 and Vacation don't have appeal with families like JW, Minions, Ant-Man or Pixels do/did. If IO can hold well against all of that competition, I don't see how it doesn't hold phenomenally against mild competition. The last 3 weekends, there's been competition for IO to compete with and it's managed 42%, 36% and 34% against all three. This is its first non-holiday weekend without any competition for families. I doubt it would have a bigger drop than last weekend, even if it loses 200-300 more theaters (could be 100-150 since MI5/Vacation don't seem super-huge) So sub-30% drop is almost a lock, going by a $1.4-1.6 million Tuesday, and $2-2.1 million over Wed/Thurs. Definitely less than 35% - it might even start having sub-30% drops until after Labor Day since Shaun and Underdogs could very well have sub-$10 million OWs. And Pixels/Minions will have mostly died off by August 7th (sub-$10 million weekends) The BO as a whole is extremely top-heavy though. It is sad that we'll likely only see four $200 million+ DOM grossers this summer unless MI5 or F4 explode at the BO. only 10 $200 million+ DOM grossers for the year would be slightly disappointing considering how hyped 2015's BO was.

This should move to November 13th. Peanuts, Spectre and MJ2 aren't remotely targeting its audience. And with only By the Sea that weekend, it could have a solid opening on its way to a 4x-4.5x. November 25th is crowded, and it only gets 1 weekend to hold phenomenally (Dec 11-13) in that current date. Its post-Thanksgiving weekend and Star Wars weekend should be a 40-45% drop. It has a shot at $150 million+ DOM if it moves to that particular date.

Inside Out: A+ Jurassic World: A Minions: A- Avengers: Age of Ultron: A- Pixels: B+ Paddington: B+ McFarland, USA: B SpongeBob 2: B- Tomorrowland: C+ Kingsman: C- Hot Tub Time Machine 2: D Chappie: F Mortdecai: F

It will. MI5 is tracking at $40 million Vacation is tracking at low-mid 30s for the 5 day (high teens-low 20s for the weekend) Everything else will be $15 million or less. Both openers target adults only. IO should be able to pull off a 20-25% drop fairly easily.

Most likely. The Martian and MI5 are the only two until then with a semi-plausible shot at the mark.

MI5: $46 million Vacation: $32 million ($45 million) Minions: $15 million ($291 million) Ant-Man: $14 million ($133 million) Pixels: $12.5 million ($48 million) Trainwreck: $10 million ($80 million) Southpaw: $9 million ($35 million) Paper Towns: $6 million ($24 million) Inside Out: $6 million ($331 million) Jurassic World: $4.5 million ($633 million) 8/7-8/9 Fantastic Four: $39 million MI5: $25 million ($95 million) Vacation: $22 million ($87 million) Ricki and the Flash: $18.5 million Shaun the Sheep Movie: $13 million Trainwreck: $8 million ($95 million) Ant-Man: $7.5 million ($147 million) Minions: $7 million ($304 million) Pixels: $6.5 million ($60 million) Southpaw: $5 million ($44 million) 8/14-8/16 Straight Outta Compton: $45 million The Man From UNCLE: $18 million The Fantastic Four: $17.5 million ($70 million) Vacation: $15 million ($114 million) MI5: $13 million ($118 million) Ricki and the Flash: $10 million ($36 million) Shaun the Sheep Movie: $8 million ($25 million) Trainwreck: $6.5 million ($106 million) Underdogs: $5 million Ant-Man: $4.5 million ($154 million) 8/21-8/23 Straight Outta Compton: $20 million ($78 million) The Fantastic Four: $11 million ($87 million) The Man From UNCLE: $10.5 million ($34 million) Vacation: $10 million ($129 million) Hitman - Agent 47: $8 million MI5: $7 million ($129 million) Ricki and the Flash: $6.5 million ($46 million) Shaun the Sheep: $6 million ($33 million) American Ultra: $5.5 million Trainwreck: $4.5 million ($113 million) 8/28-8/30 We Are Your Friends: $17 million Sinister 2: $12 million Straight Outta Compton: $10 million ($94 million) Regression: $8.5 million The Fantastic Four: $8 million ($99 million) Vacation: $7.5 million ($140 million) The Man From UNCLE: $6.5 million ($44 million) MI5: $4.5 million ($136 million) Shaun the Sheep Movie: $4.5 million ($39 million) Ricki and the Flash: $4 million ($52 million)

If Ant-Man and Pixels, both family-friendly tentpoles, couldn't hurt JW that bad, why would MI5, if it's only tracking at $35-40 million for the weekend? JW might end up with a 30-35% drop if MI5 opens that low. UNCLE? Anything over $20 million would be phenomenal for it if MI5 opens to $35 million Compton could end up exploding, though. I think September-December 2015 will reverse the disappointment of the last few weeks. Black Mass, Everest, Maze Runner 2, Hotel Transylvania 2, The Walk, The Martian, Pan, Steve Jobs, Crimson Peak, Goosebumps, Bridge of Spies - in terms of BO potential, that's probably the best-sounding fall slate in quite a while... I'd say fall 2015 approaches fall 2003's attendance if Jungle Book and Vacation had stayed in October. Nov-Dec look pretty solid, too. Although, Night Before really should move to November 13th. Honestly, that was never going to happen.. $75-80 million would be the absolute best-case scenario at this point, considering the lack of buzz and its sub-$30m OW tracking. I wouldn't be shocked if Vacation's 5-day does more than MI5's OW, at this point. Very true. Especially since it has so much in its favor Jurassic World being the last $175 million+ DOM tentpole (1.5 months ago) Every other tentpole underperforming (Terminator, Ant-Man, Pixels) Most of the counterprogramming falling flat (MMXXL, Max, Gallows, Self/Less, Paper Towns) Vacation being more of a WOM type movie F4 and UNCLE looking like sub-$45 million openers The rest of August targeting older adults or kids minus those two MI5 should be able to get a $65-70 million OW with minimal competition and solid reception for MI4. a $35-40 million OW would be just as crazy as Ted 2's OW

I doubt it. It'll drop another 35-40% over the next two weeks. $4.5 million ($632 million) $3 million ($637 million) $2 million ($640 million) $1.5 million ($642 million) $1 million ($643 million) $1.5 million/$2 million ($645 million) $0.7 million ($646 million) $0.3 million ($647 million) $0.4 million ($647 million) $648-649 million DOM $645-650 million is where it should end up, unless its legs for the weekends leading up to Labor Day are phenomenal (sub-25% drops every week)

Other than the pervy maid, the bus driver with the Amish beard and the line 'if peeing your pants is cool, consider me Miles Davis' Billy Madison is a pure guilty pleasure. It also helps that Sandlers shtick was fresh in 1995. If he released it today, it would be treated like Grown Ups 2 lol