mahnamahna

It can definitely reach 200m with even a 40% drop this weekend, since that would put it at roughly $140 million DOM. From an $18.5 million 3rd weekend and minimal competition and great WOM, it could get a 3.5x-4x from there. That'd be $204 million on the low end, $214 million on the high end. I think it'll make it to $200 million DOM due to an utter lack of competition. $185-190 million is the worse case scenario for the rest of its run.

234/500

Bridge of Spies and The Martian are the two Oscar baits for the fall that should get there. They compare favorably to Gravity and Captain Phillips. Steve Jobs, Black Mass and The Walk should all do $60-70 million due to competition. It'll probably be (for the rest of the year): Trainwreck Straight Outta Compton Everest The Maze Runner 2 Hotel Transylvania 2 The Martian Bridge of Spies Crimson Peak/Goosebumps (one of the two.. possibly both) Spectre The Peanuts Movie Mockingjay Part 2 The Good Dinosaur Creed The Night Before Star Wars Episode VII Joy Daddy's Home/Sisters (one of the two) The Hateful Eight

In what world is Sep/Oct 2015 a wild card? Black Mass The Maze Runner 2 Everest Hotel Transylvania 2 The Walk The Martian Steve Jobs Pan Crimson Peak Goosebumps Bridge of Spies Suffragette All of those could legitimately do $60 million+ DOM of those 12, 7-8 of them have a shot at $100 million+ DOM. there's also a very small outside chance Sep-Oct could be bigger than Jul-Aug this year due to how well-rounded the lineup is looking. I don't see how Sep-Oct 2015 doesn't significantly increase over Fall 2014, unless everything get F4-levels of bad reception.

If MI5 fell 47% against F4, why would it drop 50%+ against UNCLE? Should get 40-45% with how dead the BO is.

8/14-16 Straight Outta Compton: $57 million MI5: $18 million ($139 million) The Man From UNCLE: $16 million The Gift: $9 million ($27 million) The Fantastic Four: $7.5 million ($39 million) Vacation: $6.5 million ($48 million) Ant-Man: $5.5 million ($156 million) Minions: $5 million ($310 million) Ricki and the Flash: $4.5 million ($14 million) Trainwreck: $4 million ($98 million) 8/21-8/23 Straight Outta Compton: $23 million ($93 million) Sinister 2: $14 million MI5: $12 million ($158 million) American Ultra: $9.5 million Hitman - Agent 47: $7 million The Man From UNCLE: $6.5 million ($26 million) The Gift: $5.5 million ($35 million) Vacation: $4 million ($54 million) Ant-Man: $4 million ($162 million) Minions: $3.5 million ($315 million) 8/28-8/30 We Are You Friends: $17 million Straight Outta Compton: $12 million ($111 million) War Room: $10.5 million MI5: $9.5 million ($173 million) No Escape: $6 million ($8 million) Sinister 2: $5.5 million ($22 million) American Ultra: $5 million ($17 million) The Gift: $4 million ($41 million) The Man From UNCLE: $3.5 million ($31 million) Hitman - Agent 47: $3 million ($11 million) 9/4-9/7 War Room: $11.5 million/$14.5 million ($29 million) We Are Your Friends: $11 million/$14 million Straight Outta Compton: $9 million/$11 million ($126 million) MI5: $8.5 million/$10 million ($187 million) The Transporter Refueled: $6 million/$7 million A Walk in the Woods: $5 million/$5.75 million ($8 million) American Ultra: $4 million/$4.5 million ($23 million) No Escape: $3.5 million/$4.25 million ($14 million) Sinister 2: $3 million/$3.5 million ($27 million) The Gift: $3 million/$3.5 million ($46 million)

It definitely looks solid. I see a potential of 15-16 $100 million+ DOM grossers from Sep-Dec (the release slate, not calender year). A lot of films targeting different demographics and a fall slate with multiple compelling releases should help 2015 make a comeback after late July/all of August.

Straight Outta Compton Black Mass Everest Hotel Transylvania 2 The Walk Sicario The Martian Steve Jobs Bridge of Spies Goosebumps The Peanuts Movie Mockingjay Part 2 The Good Dinosaur Creed In the Heart of the Sea Star Wars Episode VII Sisters Joy The Revenant The Hateful Eight UNCLE is looking at a $15-20 million OW, so I doubt it'll hurt MI5 if F4's $26 million debut didn't hurt Ant-Man. MI5 should get $16-17 million next weekend even with UNCLE as direct competition. MI5 is already showing great WOM from its sub-50% 2nd weekend drop. Should be able to hold 35-45% next weekend as long as UNCLE doesn't break out too much. Compton's the bigger threat - it has potential to do $50 million+ OW. UNCLE would be doing phenomenal with F4's $26 million OW considering how lackluster the last few weekends have been. But unlike Southpaw, the reviews are great and competition has pretty much died off Compton and UNCLE may only combine to $55-60 million next weekend, and the holdovers may only do another $45-50 million. However, Sinister 2 will prevent a 4x IMO. $35-40 million is a good range for it.

I don't see how it misses it with how meh the rest of August is. Even with 40-50% drops the rest of its run, it should get to $104-106 million. I'd think 15-25% drops until after Labor Day, so $110-115 million is where it should end up.

This and possibly Compton are the only films (MI5 notwithstanding) that I could see making a run for $150 million+ DOM from now until Spectre. Of course, I'm not saying Fall 2015 will be bad. I actually think we'll potentially have 6-7 Sep and Oct releases do $90 million+ DOM and 4-5 doing $100 million+ DOM. It's just that The Martian is the only one I can see breaking out that big. And this fall is looking to be one where everything does solid, but nothing does gigantic other than possibly Martian.

With how weak the August BO is, I'd think it would be able to get $55-60 million even with toxic WOM. Of course, I could be way off.

With these numbers, next weekend could be: Straight Outta Compton: $48 million The Man From UNCLE: $21 million MI5: $17 million ($138 million) The Fantastic Four: $9 million ($40 million) The Gift: $8 million ($25 million) Minions: $6 million ($312 million) Vacation: $5.5 million ($45 million) Ricki and the Flash: $5 million ($16 million) Trainwreck: $4.5 million ($98 million) Pixels: $3.5 million ($63 million) Would love to see Compton open to 8 Mile adjusted ($70-75 million), and UNCLE open to Kingsman numbers ($35-40 million) to reignite the box office. However, $40 million+ for Compton and $20 million+ for UNCLE is enough to prevent next weekend from being a total fail. If August keeps being this atrocious, I just might start a Sep-Dec (releases only, not actual calendar gross) 2015 over May-Aug 2015 DOM keyword: might

Ricki's $3.3 million is excellent considering it's in 1,600 theaters. $3.3 million $4.6 million $3.1 million $11 million OW ($7,000 per theater average). With how little competition there is for women this month, Ricki ought to be able to leg its way to $40 million+ DOM fairly easily.

With a $6.8 million actual Fri, I don't see how it finishes above $55 million DOM with its toxic WOM It'll end up being a worse bomb than Tomorrowland somehow...

Martian has the best and only chance at $200 million+ DOM for this fall. Everest has too much going against it MR2 and Black Mass the week before The Walk, Sicario and The Martian all stealing adult audiences the two weeks after Crimson Peak taking its screens in its later run Anything over $60 million would be a big win for Everest. And Universal has had such a gigantic BO year that they could just flatout decide to not release the rest of their slate in theaters and be the highest grossing studio by a large margin This fall is looking more well-rounded, though. I count 11 Sep-Oct releases with a solid chance at $60 million+ DOM if everything goes smooth this fall. Black Mass Maze Runner 2 Hotel Transylvania 2 The Martian Steve Jobs Pan The Walk Bridge of Spies Goosebumps Crimson Peak Suffragette Exactly. If anything from now until Spectre has a serious shot at $200 million+ DOM, it's The Martian. But $120-140 million DOM is far more reasonable - especially since there's 7-8 films with a shot at $80 million+ DOM this fall.

They're already exploding from 2009 to 2014 USH went from 4.3 million to 6.8 million. With Springfield, the nighttime studio tour, F&F and the new Potter area increasing attendance from 2015 to 2017, they could be at 8 million+ by 2017. USF went from 5.5 million to 8.2 million. With F&F to replace Disaster, Beetlejuice relocated to FFL area, Fallon to replace Twister, and Nintendo to replace/expand KidZone, attendance could get to 9.5-10 million by 2018. IOA went from 4.5 million to 8.1 million. With Kong, the MSHI revamp, an Avengers E, something JW/JP, and a nighttime show, they could also get to 9.5-10 million by 2018. USJ is at 11 million+... could get past 12 million with the JP flyer and whatever replaces BTTF/Jaws. Universal could get $6 billion+ for the year at the BO, and almost reach that amount with their parks/TV divisions it's clearly just their year.

With how empty August is, it'll probably get to $65-70 million. Anything less than $100 million is awful, anything less than $75 million beyond atrocious Rooting for $25 million OW so MI5 can surpass it With $55-60 million, I don't see how Compton or UNCLE don't end up as the highest grossing August releases, if they're halfway decent.

At least this fall is looking to be the most well-rounded fall slate in quite some time Otherwise, it'd be doomsday for 2015

Weekend is looking rough F4: $28.5 million MI5: $26 million ($105 million) The Gift: $10 million Ricki and the Flash: $8.5 million Vacation: $8 million ($36 million) Minions: $7.5 million ($302 million) Ant-Man: $7 million ($146 million) Pixels: $6.5 million ($59 million) Trainwreck: $6 million ($91 million) Shaun the Sheep Movie: $5.5 million ($7 million) Next weekend could be worse if Compton is sub-$30 million and UNCLE is sub-$20 million. Fall can't come soon enough

An R-rated action tentpole isn't going to be particularly affected by a PG-13 teen thriller. One will target those in their 30s and 40s, the other will target those under the age of 25. They can both coexist just fine.

Yeah, best case for Passengers is 6th or 7th place. Maybe 5th if Moana underperforms, but I don't see how an original sci-fi gunning for Oscars will finish above the big 4 for next year - all are pretty close to locks for $300 million+ DOM. Going up against Rogue One is risky, especially if Passengers is PG-13 instead of R.

It did well in the UK, and the budget is probably well below $50 million, so it'll make a small profit in the end. Shaun isn't going to be remotely frontloaded... it could definitely rebound over the weekend and do $9-10 million over the 5 day it's not doomsday quite yet. $5-6 million 5 day may be very likely, but I'm thinking most parents don't even know it's out yet. My guess is $7-7.5 million for the 5 day.

Not really. After GotG did $335 million, and everything post-Avengers has done $200 million+, Ant-Man doing $200-220 million wouldn't be a sleeper - it would be slightly above average. Especially when there was quite a few on here predicting $225 million+ DOM. $275-300 million would be, though. Especially since Ant-Man is the toughest sell out of all of them. It's a solid performance, but anything less than $250 million isn't really a sleeper hit. Being a MCU tentpole makes $200 million just par for the course at this point.

I'd say at least $260 million. If it had grossed more than Cap 2 DOM, I'd call it a sleeper. Especially since Ant-Man didn't have the rave reviews that Winter Soldier did.

$125 million DOM $800 million OS $925 million WW