The Panda

San Diego Film Critic Association Nominations Best Picture CALL ME BY YOUR NAME DUNKIRK GET OUT LADY BIRD THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE OF EBBING, MISSOURI Best Director Christopher Nolan, DUNKIRK Greta Gerwig, LADY BIRD Guillermo del Toro, THE SHAPE OF WATER Jordan Peele, GET OUT Martin McDonagh, THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE OF EBBING, MISSOURI Best Actor Gary Oldman, DARKEST HOUR James Franco, THE DISASTER ARTIST James McAvoy, SPLIT Robert Pattinson, GOOD TIME Timothée Chalamet, CALL ME BY YOUR NAME Best Actress Frances McDormand, THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE OF EBBING, MISSOURI Margot Robbie, I, TONYA Sally Hawkins, MAUDIE Sally Hawkins, THE SHAPE OF WATER Saoirse Ronan, LADY BIRD Best Supporting Actor Ethan Hawke, MAUDIE Oscar Isaac, SUBURBICON Sam Rockwell, THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE OF EBBING, MISSOURI Willem Dafoe, THE FLORIDA PROJECT Woody Harrelson, THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI Best Supporting Actress Allison Janney I, TONYA Bria Vinaite, THE FLORIDA PROJECT Catherine Keener, GET OUT Holly Hunter, THE BIG SICK Laurie Metcalf, LADY BIRD Best Comedic Performance Daniel Craig, LOGAN LUCKY Ezra Miller, JUSTICE LEAGUE James Franco, THE DISASTER ARTIST Lil Rel Howery, GET OUT Ray Romano, THE BIG SICK Best Original Screenplay Christopher Nolan, DUNKIRK Greta Gerwig, LADY BIRD Emily V. Gordon and Kumail Nanjiani, THE BIG SICK Jordan Peele, GET OUT Martin McDonagh, THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE OF EBBING, MISSOURI Best Adapted Screenplay James Gray, THE LOST CITY OF Z James Ivory, CALL ME BY YOUR NAME Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber, THE DISASTER ARTIST Sofia Coppola, THE BEGUILED Virgil Williams & Dee Rees, MUDBOUND Best Documentary EX LIBRIS: THE NEW YORK PUBLIC LIBRARY FACES PLACES JANE LAST MEN IN ALEPPO THE WORK Best Animated Film COCO LOVING VINCENT MY ENTIRE HIGH SCHOOL SINKING INTO THE SEA MY LIFE AS A ZUCCHINI THE BOSS BABY Best Foreign Language Film BPM (BEATS PER MINUTE) FACES PLACES THE OTHER SIDE OF HOPE THE SQUARE THELMA Best Editing Jonathan Amos & Paul Machliss, BABY DRIVER Jon Gregory, THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI Lee Smith, DUNKIRK Sarah Broshar, Michael Kahn, THE POST Sidney Wolinsky, THE SHAPE OF WATER Best Cinematography Ben Richardson, WIND RIVER Dan Laustsen, THE SHAPE OF WATER Darius Khondji, THE LOST CITY OF Z Hoyte Van Hoytema, DUNKIRK Roger Deakins, BLADE RUNNER 2049 Best Production Design Anne Ross, THE BEGUILED Alessandora Querzola and Dennis Gassner, BLADE RUNNER 2049 Nathan Crowley, DUNKIRK Paul D. Austerberry, THE SHAPE OF WATER Sarah Greenwood, BEAUTY AND THE BEAST Best Visual Effects BEAUTY AND THE BEAST BLADE RUNNER 2049 DUNKIRK THE SHAPE OF WATER WAR FOR THE PLANET OF THE APES Best Costume Design Jacqueline Durran, BEAUTY and the BEAST Jenny Eagan, HOSTILES Luis Sesqueria, THE SHAPE OF WATER Mark Bridges, PHANTOM THREAD Sonia Grande, THE LOST CITY OF Z Stacey Battat, THE BEGUILED Best Use of Music BABY DRIVER BEAUTY AND THE BEAST CALL ME BY YOUR NAME DUNKIRK THE SHAPE OF WATER Breakthrough Artist Barry Keoghan Brooklyn Prince Greta Gerwig Jordan Peele Sophia Lillis Timothée Chalamet Best Ensemble GET OUT LADY BIRD MUDBOUND THE POST THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE OF EBBING, MISSOURI

I first read this title as The Goldfish, now that I see it's the Goldfinch I am much less intrigued.

Will probably watch Rogue One tomorrow. My plan is to watch 1. Rogue One 2. A New Hope 3. Empire Strikes Back 4. The Phantom Menace 5. Attack of the Clones 6. Revenge of the Sith 7. Return of the Jedi 8. The Force Awakens 9. The Last Jedi

San Francisco Critics Circle Nominations Best Picture CALL ME BY YOUR NAME THE FLORIDA PROJECT GET OUT THE SHAPE OF WATER THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI Best Director Sean Baker – THE FLORIDA PROJECT Guillermo del Toro – THE SHAPE OF WATER Greta Gerwig – LADY BIRD Christopher Nolan – DUNKIRK Jordan Peele – GET OUT Best Actor Timothee Chalamet – CALL ME BY YOUR NAME James Franco – THE DISASTER ARTIST Daniel Kaluuya – GET OUT Gary Oldman – DARKEST HOUR Andy Serkis – WAR FOR THE PLANET OF THE APES Best Actress Annette Bening – FILM STARS DON’T DIE IN LIVERPOOL Sally Hawkins – THE SHAPE OF WATER Frances McDormand – THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI Margot Robbie – I, TONYA Saoirse Ronan – LADY BIRD Best Supporting Actor Willem Dafoe – THE FLORIDA PROJECT Armie Hammer – CALL ME BY YOUR NAME Richard Jenkins – THE SHAPE OF WATER Sam Rockwell – THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI Michael Stuhlbarg – CALL ME BY YOUR NAME Best Supporting Actress Holly Hunter – THE BIG SICK Allison Janney – I, TONYA Melissa Leo – NOVITIATE Lesley Manville – PHANTOM THREAD Laurie Metcalf – LADY BIRD Best Foreign Language Film BPM A FANTASTIC WOMAN FRANTZ IN THE FADE THE SQUARE Best Animated Feature THE BREADWINNER COCO THE LEGO BATMAN MOVIE LOVING VINCENT YOUR NAME Best Documentary BRIMSTONE & GLORY CITY OF GHOSTS DAWSON CITY: FROZEN TIME FACES PLACES JANE Best Cinematography BLADE RUNNER 2049 – Roger Deakins DUNKIRK – Hoyte van Hoytema THE FLORIDA PROJECT – Alexis Zabe THE SHAPE OF WATER – Dan Laustsen WONDER WHEEL – Vittorio Storaro Best Production Design BLADE RUNNER 2049 – Dennis Gassner DUNKIRK – Nathan Crowley PHANTOM THREAD – Mark Tildesley THE SHAPE OF WATER – Paul D. Austerberry WONDERSTRUCK – Mark Friedberg Best Editing BABY DRIVER – Paul Machliss and Jonathan Amos BLADE RUNNER 2049 – Joe Walker DUNKIRK – Lee Smith THE POST – Michael Kahn THE SHAPE OF WATER – Sidney Wolinsky Best Screenplay (original) THE BIG SICK – Kumail Nanjiani and Emily V. Gordon GET OUT – Jordan Peele LADY BIRD – Greta Gerwig THE SHAPE OF WATER – Guillermo Del Toro and Vanessa Taylor THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI – Martin McDonagh Best Screenplay (adapted) THE DISASTER ARTIST – Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber CALL ME BY YOUR NAME – James Ivory MOLLY’S GAME – Aaron Sorkin MUDBOUND – Dee Rees and Virgil Williams WONDERSTRUCK – Brian Selznick Best Original Score BLADE RUNNER 2049 – Hans Zimmer and Benjamin Wallfisch DUNKIRK – Hans Zimmer PHANTOM THREAD – Jonny Greenwood THE SHAPE OF WATER – Alexandre Desplat WAR FOR THE PLANET OF THE APES – Michael Giacchino Special Citation (for that underappreciated indie gem) BRIMSTONE & GLORY COLUMBUS THE OTHER KIDS

DC Critics Winners Best Film:Get OutBest Director:Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk)Best Actor:Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)Best Actress:Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)Best Supporting Actor:Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)Best Supporting Actress:Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)Best Acting Ensemble:Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, MissouriBest Youth Performance:Brooklynn Prince (The Florida Project)Best Voice Performance:Anthony Gonzalez (Coco)Best Motion Capture Performance:Andy Serkis (War for the Planet of the Apes)Best Original Screenplay:Jordan Peele (Get Out)Best Adapted Screenplay:Virgil Williams and Dee Rees (Mudbound)Best Animated Feature:CocoBest Documentary:JaneBest Foreign Language Film:BPM (Beats Per Minute)Best Production Design:Production Designer: Dennis Gassner;Set Decorator: Alessandra Querzola (Blade Runner 2049)Best Cinematography:Roger A. Deakins, ASC, BSC (Blade Runner 2049)Best Editing:Paul Machliss, ACE; Jonathan Amos, ACE (Baby Driver)Best Original Score:Hans Zimmer and Benjamin Wallfisch (Blade Runner 2049)

There's a plethora of movie grills and dine-in theaters in DFW. Beyond that the rest have switched to the reserved seating model. It definitely seems like theaters are moving to a model that focuses less on mass attendance and more on getting the people who do attend to spend more. So it's more of a luxury night out sort of thing. There's quite a few niche theaters in DFW that try to offer some sort of extra to the viewing experience to differentiate from how many theaters there are in the metroplex. Things like the Alamo Drafthouse, Dome and 70mm IMAX, a place called Look Cinema that has a variety of different seating styles, a bowling theater and so forth all seem to attract a healthy amount of audiences (even with 'flop' movies)

I think the last spot is between WW or Dunkirk SW, Apes, Shape and BR2049 should be in (although maybe they snub SW or Apes in favor of WW? I'm doubtful but it's possible)

I think Hanks misses and Kaluuya gets in. If they wouldn't nominate Hanks for Sully, Bridge of Spies, Captain Phillips or Saving Mr Banks they won't nominate him for The Post (especially when he's not consistently getting into the precursors so far, which I think he'd need to given how the Academy's been ignoring him)

PTA, McDonagh and Spielberg haven't been showing up whereas Peele and Baker definitely have. Obviously the Guilds will matter more and could deviate, but it's not like they haven't snubbed Spielberg before (same with Hanks in BA). Phantom Thread is something that was going to play better with critics, and it's still not gaining traction, PTA Is a non-factor. I think there's more of a passion vote for Baker and more of a consensus vote for Peele and Get Out.

Currently have Peele Gerwig Del Torro Guadagino Nolan with Sean Baker as an alt who could take out Nolan. If that happens I could potentially see Argo 2.0 happening.

I'm going to have a lot of fun with this movie, doesn't matter the quality. But will it make my top 10 of the year again???

TLJ is at 33 / 384 in the DFW area for Thursday night. Around 150 of those theaters are around 85-90%+ capacity.

I can see the Big Sick or potentially the Disaster Artist making it in for the ninth if either continues to build traction. But I am kind of thinking 8 nominees right now.

Updated overall predictions

Nominations for Washington, DC Area Film Critics Association, winners announced tomorrow Best Film: Call Me by Your Name Dunkirk Get Out Lady Bird Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri Best Director: Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water) Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird) Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk) Jordan Peele (Get Out) Dee Rees (Mudbound) Best Actor: Timothée Chalamet (Call Me by Your Name) Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread) James Franco (The Disaster Artist) Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out) Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour) Best Actress: Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water) Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri) Margot Robbie (I, Tonya) Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird) Meryl Streep (The Post) Best Supporting Actor: Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project) Armie Hammer (Call Me by Your Name) Jason Mitchell (Mudbound) Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri) Michael Stuhlbarg (Call Me by Your Name) Best Supporting Actress: Mary J. Blige (Mudbound) Tiffany Haddish (Girls Trip) Holly Hunter (The Big Sick) Allison Janney (I, Tonya) Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird) Best Acting Ensemble: Dunkirk It Mudbound The Post Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri Best Youth Performance: Dafne Keen (Logan) Sophia Lillis (It) Brooklynn Prince (The Florida Project) Millicent Simmonds (Wonderstruck) Jacob Tremblay (Wonder) Best Voice Performance: Will Arnett (The LEGO Batman Movie) Gael García Bernal (Coco) Michael Cera (The LEGO Batman Movie) Bradley Cooper (Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2) Anthony Gonzalez (Coco) Best Motion Capture Performance: Andy Serkis (War for the Planet of the Apes) Dan Stevens (Beauty and the Beast) Steve Zahn (War for the Planet of the Apes) Taika Waititi (Thor: Ragnarok) Best Original Screenplay: Emily V. Gordon & Kumail Nanjiani (The Big Sick) Jordan Peele (Get Out) Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird) Martin McDonagh (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri) Guillermo del Toro & Vanessa Taylor (The Shape of Water) Best Adapted Screenplay: Hampton Fancher & Michael Green, Story by Hampton Fancher (Blade Runner 2049) James Ivory (Call Me by Your Name) Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber (The Disaster Artist) Aaron Sorkin (Molly's Game) Virgil Williams and Dee Rees (Mudbound) Best Animated Feature: The Breadwinner Coco Despicable Me 3 The LEGO Batman Movie Loving Vincent Best Documentary: City of Ghosts Faces Places An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power Jane Step Best Foreign Language Film: BPM (Beats Per Minute) First They Killed My Father In the Fade The Square Thelma Best Production Design: Production Designer: Sarah Greenwood; Set Decorator: Katie Spencer (Beauty and the Beast) Production Designer: Dennis Gassner; Set Decorator: Alessandra Querzola (Blade Runner 2049) Production Designer: Nathan Crowley; Supervising Set Decorator: Gary Fettis (Dunkirk) Production Designer: Paul Denham Austerberry; Set Decorators: Shane Vieau, Jeff Melvin (The Shape of Water) Production Designer: Aline Bonetto; Set Decorator: Anna Lynch-Robinson (Wonder Woman) Best Cinematography: Roger A. Deakins, ASC, BSC (Blade Runner 2049) Sayombhu Mukdeeprom (Call Me by Your Name) Hoyte Van Hoytema, ASC, FSF, NSC (Dunkirk) Rachel Morrison, ASC (Mudbound) Dan Laustsen, ASC, DFF (The Shape of Water) Best Editing: Paul Machliss, ACE; Jonathan Amos, ACE (Baby Driver) Joe Walker, ACE (Blade Runner 2049) Lee Smith, ACE (Dunkirk) Gregory Plotkin (Get Out) Sidney Wolinsky, ACE (The Shape of Water) Best Original Score: Hans Zimmer and Benjamin Wallfisch (Blade Runner 2049) Michael Giacchino (Coco) Hans Zimmer (Dunkirk) Alexandre Desplat (The Shape of Water) Carter Burwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri) The Joe Barber Award for Best Portrayal of Washington, DC: An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power Last Flag Flying Mark Felt: The Man Who Brought Down the White House Spider-Man: Homecoming The Post http://www.dcfilmcritics.com/awards/

Also Detroit Film Critics name their winners BEST FILM Winner: The Florida Project The Disaster Artist Get Out The Shape of Water Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri BEST DIRECTOR Winner: Sean Baker, The Florida Project Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk Jordan Peele, Get Out Geuillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water BEST ACTOR Winner: James Franco, The Disaster Artist Timothée Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour Robert Pattinson, Good Time BEST ACTRESS Winner: Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water Margot Robbie, I, Tonya Saroise Ronan, Lady Bird BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR Winner: Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri Patrick Stewart, Logan Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS Winner: Allison Janney, I, Tonya Tiffany Haddish, Girls Trip Holly Hunter, The Big Sick Melissa Leo, Novitiate Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird BEST ENSEMBLE Winner: The Post The Big Sick Lady Bird Mudbound Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri BREAKTHROUGH Winner: Jordan Peele, Writer/Director (Get Out) Timothée Chalamet, Actor (Call Me by Your Name, Lady Bird, Hot Summer Nights) Gal Gadot, Actress (Wonder Woman, Justice League) Tiffany Haddish, Actress (Girls Trip) Caleb Landry Jones, Actor (American Made;The Florida Project;Get Out; and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri) BEST SCREENPLAY Winner: Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri Guillermo del Toro, Vanessa Taylor, The Shape of Water Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird Emily V. Gordon, Kumail Nanjiani, The Big Sick Liz Hannah, Josh Singer, The Post Jordan Peele, Get Out Taylor Sheridan, Wind River BEST DOCUMENTARY Winner: Jim & Andy: The Great Beyond The Defiant Ones Human Flow Kedi Step Strong Island Whose Streets? BEST ANIMATED FEATURE Winner: The LEGO Batman Movie Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie Cars 3 Coco Loving Vincent BEST USE OF MUSIC Winner: Baby Driver Blade Runner 2049 Good Time Phantom Thread The Shape of Water

AFI Awards announced, Darkest Hour wasn't eligible btw. AFI MOVIES OF THE YEAR The Big Sick Call Me By Your Name Dunkirk The Florida Project Get Out Lady Bird The Post The Shape of Water Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri Wonder Woman http://deadline.com/2017/12/2018-afi-movies-of-the-year-list-wonder-woman-get-out-1202222266/

I'm sorry if it came off that way, I'm more on the blunt approach in this thread because there's a lot of doomsday comments that are detached from reality. That being said, I'd like to defend myself against the allegation that I'm commenting stupidity. I may have misread the context of your comment (as you did mine) but it wasn't stupidity. Best to leave this conversation here and not carry it further.

I was saying your post reads like your complaining that a film industry expects to see profits from their studios to keep them running? As if it's some cold thing? Any other studio would shutdown or change-up a Searchlight like studio if it wasn't producing results. If Searchlight survived at Fox, it'll survive at Disney.

Re-read that post. Re-read it a few times. Then remember the bottom line of the film industry is to make money (you should know that being on a Box Office Forum)

They could alternate Avatar and Johnson trilogy movies in December, which could be an effective strategy. It would keep both franchises running longer, giving more time for the Avatar and Johnson Trilogy interest to be at their peaks when it comes to merchandising and theme parks.

This isn't a monopoly. It isn't even an oligopoly, by formal definition.

I didn't say I was happy with it, I'm simply indifferent and don't get what the doomsday fuss is about. Furthermore, there are plenty of cases where concentrating an industry can actually be beneficial for consumers, given the structure of the industry at hand. There are many market structures that simply couldn't exist as perfectly competitive markets (or monopolistic competitive markets) given the nature of the industry. Even in the film industry, some market concentration could be beneficial as it gives the top firms more resources to innovate or expand their decisions. Further, given the nature of the emerging streaming markets, there isn't room in the film industry for smaller blockbuster film studios. You can have a few large firms and then your large number that produce a few low budget affairs (like A24 and such).

So going even further, using a C4 measure of market concentration (so the market share of the top four firms in the industry) Pre-Merger (using 2016 numbers): 68.3% Post-Merger (using 2016 numbers): 76.3% A typical oligopoly is going to have a 90% market concentration in the top 4 firms or so. It would take both Paramount and Sony also merging with one of the major studios to bring the market concentration up to 89.8%, which wouldn't even be as severe as other oligopolies which often see 2 or 3 firms owning over 90% of the market. The film industry is still going to be competitive

Disney, out of all of the studios, has the most room to expand output. I reckon after this, if they go for any other mergers (which this Fox merge isn't really a merger), it'll be vertical and not horizontal.