Ando918

The public school districts split up their spring breaks from Mid-March through early April. Very few school districts or colleges are having their spring breaks this week. It is too close to the end of the quarter or semester now. It is probably some other factor, or just coincidence. I have no idea about private schools, though.

I just think that when people talk records being broken nowadays they tend to forget about adjusting for inflation and U.S. population decades ago. Every year we read about a new record being broken, either domestic or worldwide, and forget how something like Jaws in the 70s would have clobbered Frozen or anything else when it comes to inflation and U.S. population. Frozen is very, very impressive for a Disney movie, but it is still 108th domestic when adjusted for inflated ticket prices.

None. It's just that their repeat viewings come from different demographics - not just 8 year old girls who dragged their moms or dads to see it 4 or 5 times and made them memorize all of the songs.

Yeah, but the thing is with Frozen many of the people who were driving the box office numbers were the same group of 8 year old girls who went and saw it 4 times in the theater. I'm not saying that Lord of The Rings movies aren't also inflated - because 13 year old fanboys went and saw that 4 times in the theater, but it is just worth mentioning. Frozen is still at #108 all-time domestic when adjusted for inflation.

Speak for yourself. I think it was extremely well-made. And I'm saying that as a male.

I predicted the movie would only have a 10 million OW a week ago. The studio executives would rather lose potential profits by tossing out yet another movie starring an older, White male when there are already too many of them. Would have been a nice slot to put an intelligent movie starring an Ellen Page or another talented female, maybe with a good script like Juno, and it would have made more money than Draft Day will. We've got one more old, White male Kevin Costner bomb in November with another sports drama that will get lost in the sea of November movies.

The big winners are obviously Captain 2 and Divergent (only a 42% fall for Divergent, plus good overseas numbers). Draft Day is the big loser. The reasoning about Rio 2's numbers and "good weather" is perplexing and doesn't make any sense. The original made 40 million OW and this one made 38-39 OW. What obviously happened is a small number of families with young kids took the kids to see Captain 2 instead on Saturday.

It is possible. We shall see. The Other Woman looks like it is trying the formula of a female "Grown Ups" to appeal to 14 year old girls. Even though Cameron Diaz is over 40, it looks like she is going to be playing a really dumb, foul-mouthed 15 year old, along with her sidekick Kate Upton. The movie will only appeal to teenage girls who are fans of Kate Upton and Nicki Minaj - no one else. I think "We're The Millers" ended up near 50% on RT and appealed to a larger demographic.

I would say it has about a 25% chance of getting to 150 domestic. If "The Other Woman" gets terrible reviews (as expected) and crashes after its opening weekend, Divergent could very well be the go-to choice for females at the cheap-o $3 or $4 dollar theaters looking to kill some time while all of the other films showing have male protagonists. "The Other Woman" looks really terrible - just a remake of a dozen other revenge movies like John Tucker Must Die where females are obsessed with men. Tucker Must Die is at 27% on RT and I predict The Other Woman will have the same RT score. Divergent could benefit from this in the month of May.

It won't do well over the 3-day Easter weekend - probably because American Christians have decided to flock to "God's Not Dead" instead. There just aren't that many Jews in the U.S. to line up to see an Old Testament story.

Right-winger Rainbow Trout should take a look at what percentage of the leading roles in movies in a given year go to females. So far in 2014, we're at about 20%. Same as the last several years. Jennifer Lawrence had 2 starring roles last year. Scarlett will have 1 or 2 leading roles this year. Angelina will have 1 starring role this year. Melissa McCarthy will get 1. Cameron Diaz will get 1 or 2. If you actually do the math, females get shafted when it comes to leading roles. Hopefully J-Law is changing this, and hopefully Shailene Woodley will change this with her success to come. But when you say "a ton" of leading roles, you should count up all of the mainstream movies in a given year and see just how few have females in the lead. If you just look at Catching Fire, Frozen, and Gravity, you won't notice just how few movies in the top 100 had female leads. http://www.thewrap.com/cate-blanchett-women-little-progress-landing-major-movie-roles-study

The fact that Kevin Costner gets to keep starring in movies at his age, even after some of them flop, is similar to how the movie studios have given Liam Neeson a bunch of big roles in the last 5 years. It is actually a lot of sexism, given how there aren't very many leading roles for females - yet there are plenty of extremely talented actresses out there who would like to be the leading role in a film. But the studio executives are still stuck in the year 1970 where they would rather give Kevin Costner the lead in 3 flops, or Josh Brolin the lead in 3 flops instead of giving some talented females a chance at leading roles. I feel bad for talented actresses in Hollywood in their 20s or 30s who can't get leading roles (other than romantic comedies or a superhero's sidekick/girlfriend) because older, White men keep getting them instead.

Another good Friday for Divergent - looking at about a 7.2 weekend. Noah is still crashing, as expected. Can't believe Boxoffice.com believed it would only fall 50% this weekend. Divergent still has a chance to hit 150 million domestic.

I'm surprised that Boxoffice.com believes that Noah will make about 8.7 this weekend. I think it will fall hard again (less than 7). Looks like Divergent will pass Lone Survivor's domestic total of 125 million on Monday, and then will pass Ride Along's domestic total of 133 million on the following Monday, right after the 3-day Easter weekend.

I'm just thinking that it won't have normal animated movie legs after its opening weekend. Right now it has dropped to 51% on RT, which is terrible for an animated/family film. You wonder how much it will drop over the 3-day Easter weekend. I'd say the movie is looking like a 40/112.

Rio 2 now at only 56% approval on Rotten Tomatoes. It is not going to do well domestically with that kind of number for an animated movie - especially when the critics usually give most animated movies at least a 75%. Don't count on this one getting to 125 domestic.

Rio 2 has a surprisingly low 57% approval rating on Rotten Tomatoes as of now. It still has time to go up a little bit, but it won't go up much. Considering how easy critics go on family / animated movies, a final approval rating in the 50s or 60s is not good. I think domestic predictions for that should be lowered to Mr. Peabody and Sherman levels (115 domestic) instead of where people are predicting it now (135 domestic).

I am referring to domestic numbers / basic respect. If it does not hit 100 domestic, it is a flop on a basis of respect, with the kind of mammoth budget that is has.

Captain 2 - 47 million, Rio 2 - 40 million, Draft Day - 11 million (flop), Oculus - 10 million (flop), Divergent - 7 million, Noah - 6 million (flop)

The weekend of the 11th-13th will be a tension-filled nailbiter between Divergent and Noah, with each getting about 7 million. Of course, those numbers will be a good weekend for Divergent b/c that will finish between 145-155 domestic, but Noah will only finish between 95-105 domestic.

Abysmal 2nd weekend for Noah (only 17 million). It is going to finish up around 100 million domestic, less than 300: Part 2.

I think I posted here 10 days ago that Divergent was going to have good legs because of how the studios typically ignore the female demographic. It is only going to drop 40-50% every weekend and will definitely cross 150 dometic. About 80% of the main characters in the mainstream movies released so far in 2014 are males, and that number won't change for the next few months. Of the 43 movies released in the first 1/3 of 2014, the top grossing movies will be The Lego Movie, Captain America 2, and Divergent (Divergent will pass Ride Along in a week or two).

This is going to finish in the upper 80s. Everybody is forgetting that Saturday night is Final Four basketball and Sunday night is Wrestlemania. Those audiences are the exact same audience as this movie's audience. It is going to be very frontloaded on Thursday night and Friday night.

I agree with you about how people need to stop talking about records being broken every year when a new blockbuster movie comes out. A record is only broken by something new when the variables are the same. Example: swimmers being timed in the same exact distance, with the same swimsuits, caps, etc. and indoor pools where there is no wind or anything. These are new records. Not when inflated ticket prices and many more screens exist now than a decade ago, or two decades, or 5 decades ago.

Divergent's good legs should not be a surprise. Females make up 51% of the American/Canadian public and buy 51% of the movie tickets. It should not be surprising that they take an interest in movies with a female main character, especially a movie that is pretty decent and has good acting. Look at Noah, Kermit/Walter, Mr. Peabody, Liam Neeson, Need for Speed, Lego Movie, Kevin Costner, Captain America, etc, and notice just how many of these movies have main characters that are male. People should look at the better than expected legs of movies like The Heat, The Help, Frozen, Gravity, etc. and think about the lack of female main characters.