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I think it will finish around $230M domestic and $440 - $450M overseas granted it doesn't drop over 45% for the next 10 days because after that the World Cup and the quick turnover in a lot of countries will induce extreme and quick theater count drops because of other movies releases, international and local.

LOL. no, It will get much higher.

That's what i think too. But i think it will get slightly under (TTDW numbers) because every movie with a male oriented target will be hit hard, especially in Europe and South America, once the Word Cup begins.

LOL, reviews, especially american reviews don't count as much overseas as the general audience liking and feedback...ask TASM2 versus CA2. Maleficent has the edge overseas because firstly, for the type of product as Jolie and Cruise are both assets. It's a fairytale, so, lots of families, women during the day and evening going to see that no matter what. The Edge of Tommorow will be fine though...but i am concerned about it being released overseas close the World Cup, so lots of its otential target, young males will miss it between exams and soccer while the main target of Maleficent won't be hurt that much during that time period as females and young children will still watch it.

Can't predict. But i think it will be well received and will do well in Europe.

Just came back from UGC brussels. Seems that there were more poeple this afternoon than for other past releases on their opening day, around the same hour.

THIS ! It has been like this for more than a month already.

Subers new predictions :

How ? CA2 stayed in my cinema 3 whole weeks and was pulled out to let Spider Man in...Three weeks only and then bye, bye ! Also CA2 in a lot of countries didn't have a real marketing campaign. Like i said, in Brussels and other cities, there were zero posters, zero clip the evening prior to its opening to the pont that i asked the employee in my theater if it was indeed going to be released since i never saw a Marvel movie with no poster, no promotion, no nothing. Apparently Marvel didn''t pull all the plugs with this one like it did with IM3 and TTDW (big posters all over the place for weeks + TV clips). It needed days for the general audience to know that it was released and then puff, it was out as soon as it was released.

yeah but in Europe it had to face none other than Spider Man prematurelly. So all in all, its equal.

True But the competition also relied too much on its core advantage of having notorious popular properties they wasted over years. TA was made after CA1. It was a risk, they fed each other. If it didn't succeed, then CA2 would have made less. Here you have Spidey properties and Xmen properties that started strong and were wasted along the way. When Spider Man 3 opened at $150M, it's not because of TA and CA2 that TASM2 opened at $91M even with the 3D addition. When Xmen3 opened above $100M, it's not because of CA2 overperforming that DOFP opened above $90M even with the 3D inclusion.. It's because those properties have wasted a lot of goodwill along the way for years and haven't capitalized on their momentum.

For me TA is an incentive just like an A list actor or an A director (Nolan did it with MOS to increase awarness and interrest for the OW) or successful brand is.., which i think Marvel Studios is becoming. That's why you have movies promotted with 'made by the director of X movie, or by the studio that did Y movie, ect...James Cameron could basicly do whatever movie and sell it on its name alone. It creates an awarness increase during the opening weekend. After that, the movie legs feed in certain degree that advantage. If the legs are poor, it will lose steam quickly, if not it will reach a bigger gross. I think Marvel's brand will soon trump every other advantage, TA included (especially after all the actors are replaced). We will see how GOGT will do but if it does well, that will be more because of marvel Studios brand association in the MCU than any relation that exist with TA.

Overseas,TASM2 will come close and maybe cross it but won't add much more than $10M from now on..

It will lose a lot of the last theaters counts on Wednesday with Maleficent taking its place after 6 whole weeks in theater.

No. It is having the last one session per day for the next 2 days in a lot of countries as Maleficent opens on Wednesday to take its last seats. Rememeberred, it has been out for 6 weeks, entering its 7th...Most movies stayed 4 weeks in theaters. It won't gross more than $10 millions now...and that's the absolute best scenario.

Yep.

More than ever, it will be interresting to watch the race between TTDW and TASM2. Who will come on top ?

Rememberred last year Memorial Day Weekend ? There were : 1) IM3 2) Gatsby 3) STID 4) FF6 5) Epic. They all did well that weekend despite that overcrowded weekend. That's why i can't comprehend that Godzilla self implosion. It doesn't bode well for the rest of its run...

I think it can reach $400M abroad with competition and finishes around IM2 ww. I also think people clearly underestimate the star power of Jolie and Cruise abroad in movie genres (Animate and Action) where they can rack in the dough. Maleficent ad campaign abroad is bigger than what i have seen with Spidey...and it's a Disney movie coming right at the heels of the still fresh in mind Frozen in a movie focusing on a villain, hence more adults driven adding to families.

Spidey opened much better than CA2 in a lot of markets bar a handful one...yet it wil struggle to reach $500M there. Godzilla had the biggest overseas opening of the year last week too but can't keep up on the foreign front too a week later. I just think $500M or $550m is HP and FF6 territories...those movies broke out in every single of the big markets abroad to reach that number. DOFP opened big but doesn't break out, doing crazy numbers in Germany, Russia, the UK. It does very good numbers not break out territory style though. And with competition i will be more difficult to fight back because with that type of competition, the drop of theater counts will be harsher, quicker abroad.

Like for the domestic front, i will wait for the second weekend to have a clear idea. TASM2 started strong in a lot of markets then faze out quickly. Besides competition abroad is bigger as there are local movies releases topo but also theater counts drop faster as movie turnover is shorter. Movies with Tom Cruise or Jolie can have a soft release domestic but be a bigger direct threat abroad.

so if you take off inflation and 3D, it stayed flat admission wise.

It's a very fan centric franchise wich doesn't grow that much outside of it. It hasn't branched enough within the general audience, which is something you do around the second and third movie before stabilizing in the subsequent ones...just like in the Harry Potter franchise.

Yeah but it has also strong competition in June. I think it will depend on how it will fare next weekend.

As i said on a previous thread. It's an old franchise well set in its lifepan cycle. It has reached its maturation point and will likely either decline, slightly increase or stabilize admission wise. It won't increase that much at this stage unless it introduce a breakthrough concept or a technical one like with 3D.