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a2k

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Everything posted by a2k

  1. Sonic verified score is 95% after 2.1k ratings and unverified is 94% after 4.4k ratings.
  2. Sonic 3 18 (21 od = 7x previews) 21.5 (+19%) 17.5 (-19%) = 60 11 (-37%) = 71
  3. If BOP Fri is 5.9 don't see how it does only 15.3 FSS. 5.9 + 6.5 (+10%) + 4.2 (-35%) = 16.6 optimistically, 5.9 + 7.1 (+20%) + 5.0 (-30%) = 18.0
  4. - (6) Jumanji: The Next Level Sony Pictures $336,394 -4% -9% 2,729 $123 $300,016,286 63
  5. 94% after 450+ ratings. These scores are getting zany. Am certain Cars3/DM2 sort of movies would be hovering around 90% on the verified scale.
  6. LW, TROS take a sizable hit Little Women Sony Pictures 1,035 1,805 -770 Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Walt Disney 992 1,746 -754 Frozen II Walt Disney 716 1,131 -415 JUM2 holds on well Jumanji: The Next Level Sony Pictures 2,410 2,729 -319 Parasite Neon 2,001 1,060 +941
  7. From Paramount. Maybe they are freeing as much space as possible for Sonic.
  8. 50 * 3.50 = 175 Onward 65 * 2.85 = 185 Min2 Onward + Min2 = 360 85 * 4.25 = 361 Soul
  9. true dat. video game effect. sonic multi could suffer from that too. pika was may 2nd week where i feel previews are heavier and hope that sonic makes it to 12x+ if not 15x+. if pika had a 20% sun drop would have done 10x multi. Valentine Day inflation could have pushed it a little higher than that.
  10. Malef2 did 16.1x previews as a sequel without holiday boost. F2 did 15.3x again as a sequel and no holiday boost in ow. Sonic will have no sequelitis, VD boost on Fri and PD boost on Sun. It will have Sonic fans front-loading somewhat but 15-16x is a given over FSS no? 3.5 previews, 3.5*15-16 = 52.5-56 fss, high-60s/low-70s 4-day.
  11. Going conservative due to Sonic but yeah it could do better.
  12. JUM2 6 (7) Jumanji: The Next Level Sony Pictures $350,779 -30% -1% 2,729 $129 $299,679,892 62 say 0.350 Thu // 300+ 1.50 (+329%) 2.10 (+40%) 1.65 (-21%) = 5.25 // 305.25+
  13. Wednesday Movie Distr Gross %YD %LW Thr Per Thr Total Gross D 1 (1) Birds of Prey (And the Fa… Warner Bros. $1,826,055 -46% 4,236 $431 $40,377,616 6 2 (2) Bad Boys For Life Sony Pictures $775,133 -39% -42% 3,530 $220 $169,180,956 27 3 (3) 1917 Universal $759,880 -37% -28% 3,548 $214 $135,553,359 50 4 (4) Parasite Neon $475,991 -28% +186% 1,060 $449 $37,170,827 125 5 (5) The Gentlemen STX Entertai… $367,951 -37% -37% 2,557 $144 $28,179,016 20 6 (7) Jumanji: The Next Level Sony Pictures $350,779 -30% -1% 2,729 $129 $299,679,892 62 7 (6) Dolittle Universal $309,010 -47% -34% 3,462 $89 $65,091,965 27 8 (8) Little Women Sony Pictures $245,643 -34% -34% 1,805 $136 $103,576,712 50 9 (9) Gretel & Hansel United Artists $231,393 -36% -42% 3,007 $77 $12,459,198 13 - (11) Star Wars: The Rise of Sk… Walt Disney $190,456 -29% -33% 1,746 $109 $511,292,996 55 - (12) Just Mercy Warner Bros. $136,024 -39% -42% 1,315 $103 $33,841,438 50 - (14) Jojo Rabbit Fox Searchlight $134,672 -29% -28% 1,096 $123 $30,722,111 118 - (13) The Rhythm Section Paramount Pi… $110,061 -44% -56% 3,049 $36 $5,318,896 13 - (15) The Turning Universal $94,170 -34% -55% 1,848 $51 $14,447,665 20 - (-) Uncut Gems A24 $88,940 -25% +72% 1,142 $78 $49,522,261 62 - (-) Frozen II Walt Disney $76,251 -38% -32% 1,131 $67 $474,603,482 83 - (-) Ford v. Ferrari 20th Century… $62,257 -31% -41% 743 $84 $116,566,378 90 - (-) Spies in Disguise 20th Century… $47,434 -41% -27% 800 $59 $65,097,648 50 - (-) Like a Boss Paramount Pi… $20,320 -32% -57% 295 $69 $22,038,768 34 - (-) The Assistant Bleecker Street $14,094 -8% +94% 25 $564 $261,829 13 - (-) Once Upon a Time…in Holly… Sony Pictures $13,422 -19% -49% 583 $23 $142,442,605 202 - (-) Joker Warner Bros. $11,453 -5% -61% 501 $23 $335,241,261 132 - (-) A Beautiful Day in the Ne… Sony Pictures $11,381 -22% -40% 155 $73 $61,361,760 83 - (-) Underwater 20th Century… $11,332 -28% -67% 226 $50 $17,057,334 34 - (-) Cats Universal $3,885 -3% -43% 85 $46 $27,162,810 55 - (-) Panga FIP $2,189 -55% -69% 37 $59 $581,156 20 - (-) Maleficent: Mistress of Evil Walt Disney $1,893 -20% -30% 68 $28 $113,927,549 118
  14. He seems more certain about 300 dom than making it to top 10 this weekend.
  15. BOP guess 1.9 (-44%); 40.5 1.9 ; 42.4 5.2 (+175%) 6.5 (+25%) 4.6 (-30%) = 16.3 (-51%) ; 58.7
  16. 6 (6) Jumanji: The Next Level Sony Pictures $501,652 +47% -19% 2,729 $184 $299,329,113 61 Smaller Tue bump than expected. Hopefully Wed doesn't fall more than 40%. Using a flat Thu due to Sonic instead of a pre-Valentine bump JUM2 should target 4.5 weekend if not 5.0. 0.30 (-40%) + 0.30 1.275 (+325%) 1.785 (+40%) 1.428 (-20%) = 4.488
  17. 5 (5) Jumanji: The Next Level Sony Pictures $340,371 -79% -8% 2,729 $125 $298,827,461 60 bit higher than charlie's 0.32 number. would be fun if it can make it to 5 3-day (-10%). Sonic will be comp but weekend should be inflated nevertheless. 0.34 + 0.56 (+65%) + 0.32 (-43%) + 0.35 (+10%) 1.4 (+300%) + 2.0 (+40%) + 1.6 (-20%) = 5.0
  18. JUM2 should add 6 Mon-Sun which will take it to 304.5 0.32 + 0.52(+62%) + 0.29(-44%) + 0.32(+10%) = 1.45 About +300%, +40%, -20% gives >4.5 FSS
  19. Don't know if anyone can tell but I made a subtle change to the poster which WB is free to use.
  20. BOP's RT aud score not keeping healthy: 81% verified compared to Joker's 88%. 75% unverified compared to Shazam's 83%.
  21. revised BOP Date Rank Gross % Change Theaters Per Theater Total Gross Days Feb 7, 2020 1 $12,960,000 4,236 $3,059 $12,960,000 1 Feb 8, 2020 1 $12,190,000 -6% 4,236 $2,878 $25,150,000 2 Feb 9, 2020 1 $7,850,000 -36% 4,236 $1,853 $33,000,000 3 JUM2 5.550 Feb 7, 2020 5 $1,245,000 +238% -18% 2,729 $456 $294,175,411 57 Feb 8, 2020 5 $2,725,000 +119% -17% 2,729 $999 $296,900,411 58 Feb 9, 2020 5 $1,580,000 -42% +33% 2,729 $579 $298,480,411 59 Actuals 11 (14) Parasite Neon $1,560,237 +7% 1,060 n/c $1,472 $35,532,515 18 16 (10) The Rhythm Section Paramount… $1,014,767 -63% 3,049 n/c $333 $4,907,758 2
  22. That would be a great opening (44.5/52.5) and put it on path to challenge Pikachu with 3.25x multi. Any idea what the prod budget is after design change?
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