el sid

True. The buzz for Kingsman could be bigger. It's the same at my cinema. It is doing better than Focus and Chappie, but a bit more reservations would be nice. But it improves and perhaps with a 200k+ weekend and a very good WOM (which it has), it could still reach a million admissions. I think the Wedding Ringer will find some moderate audience. The Cinderella movie is (like Kingsman) a film where I think it will be a hit - but not especially on its first weekend, more in its longtime run. And by the way I said earlier, 1M admissions = $10M. But I made a double mistake and only because of that I was right again. First I forgot to transfer Euros into US$ and second I did not look at the exchange rate. Of course, a year or two earlier, 1M admissions would have translated into $13-14M. But the exchange rate is so terrible at the moment (I read it here but did not realize how terrible it is), that all movies need much more admissions at the moment.

The new prediction for Germany is exactly 1M admissions = $10M. So far, Kingsman gets very good reviews - both from critics and preview moviegoers. I hope and also think it will be a surprise hit. I'm really looking forward to this movie and will see it opening weekend.

I have a little question: What should a Chinese film (like Dragon Blade) fetch in China to be a hit? More than 100M or more than 150M? Or even more? Thx.

A very nice number for Kingsman. I would say 25M (3 days) are doable, if not more. And it should get a great WOM. I wonder if I ever saw 89% audience score at RT. With all the presales, 100M are still possible for 50SOG but the preview number is really much lower than what I expected.

The Numbers has it at 209.5M now. But I want to report some other good news (but I don't know if this is the right place): It's #1 in Germany on DVD & Blu-ray. And the PG-13 version is #6. I didn't expect that because "Monsieur Claude and his Daughters", "Frozen" and "Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug" are so popular at the moment. Very nice. If Hercules wins the next week is very doubtful - it's currently only #319 on amazon.de. But in two weeks it's pretty sure that "Guardians of the Galaxy" will win.

I'm not surprised about the bad numbers of HB2. It was only between 6 and 7% at movietickets on Wednesday and yesterday. Now it has only 5%. Could come even worse. Pinguins of Madagascar increased with now 16%.

The Wrap also reported 25M for The Hunger Games last Friday and ruined my prediction. Boxoffice.com, The Guardian, The Numbers, wiki ... all report 90-100M. And remember that Bruce Willis was kicked out because he wanted 1M too much - so they did look after the money. We will see, the studio knows it the best. Ok, why a fourth part? Simple because of the 30-35M people (has someone perhaps exact admission numbers?) who still saw it in theaters. Despite the rating and the negative buzz and the leak. Ex3 had its flaws - to me it was the rating, the too much or too few screentime of some members and the boring beginning - but overall I liked it. Liked it better than 1 & 2 in some parts. The buzz before the start in theaters was really bad in Germany, but after the release, many said they expected it to be much worse. At the forums I visit, most want a fourth part - but only R-Rated of course. The Rating was a bigger problem than I thought, around 1/3 of the users say they really avoided the film because of the rating. And the R-Rated version (not under 18 years in Germany) is already since two month in the Top 100 (normally around # 25) at amazon, the PG-13 version is only in the Top 400.

Wow, did not know that the Hobbit movies made 89 and 88M in Germany! We had the same discussion on a german website (if the last Hobbit will top the others or not) and most said - like me - that they will see it because it is the last one. It seems that I'm always optimistic, but I would say the last Hobbit movie will get at least the same audience if not more.

I saw either 90 or 100M budget on several moviewebsites, so this would be new to me, too. I think it is just a typo and a very sloppy article. It was no big hit, but no flop either. Ok, I will not mention it further.

Not much change, only that "Die Mannschaft" will get at a max 400k. But no wonder with so few playtimes, for example only 7 (!) for the whole week in my cinema. That's because the TV-date is so near, still I don't really understand that strategy. It could have done well (or lets say even better) in cinema and also as a free TV-premiere! But good for the fans of "Interstellar" which still holds well. The two smaller newcomers "Nightcrawler" and the Nicole Kidman film "Before I Go to Sleep" are now both on course for 50k admissions. For "Nightcrawler" the prediction was a little bit higher, but "Before I Go to Sleep" doubled its prediction. Nice - I think the plot sounds interesting. And Nightcrawler gets at least very good reviews. "Mr. Turner" in its second week should have exactly the same number of admissions as last week - 25k.

You could be right. Perhaps I underestimated Die Mannschaft because I saw almost no advertising for it and Interstellar has so much. Interstellar had "only" 60k visitors yesterday, that means it has to increase a lot over the weekend. And then it needs a very good WOM to have a good hold. Edit: It did increase a lot with estimated over 100k admissions on Friday .

Insidekino predicts "only" 1M admissions for Die Mannschaft but 2M for Interstellar. I think it depends very much on their WOM how successful they finally are. I for example didn't like Sommermärchen so much because it showed too few scenes of the fans and to me it was a little bit boring. The scene I remember the best is where some of the german players played billard... And it' almost Winter here, if that documentary still fits, I don't know. But that's of course only my opinion. And I don't think that Die Mannschaft will hurt Interstellar because it's absolutely not the same type of film, somebody who wants to see Interstellar will see Interstellar.

And these trends are pretty accurate, on Sunday normally with only 5-10k deviation (for the bigger films). Nice for the Winterknödel und the Ninjas! But the smaller newcomers have a pretty hard life with this strong competition, especially "The Judge". If I had to make a prediction for that movie a few weeks ago, I would have typed 300-400k and now even 100k is no lock.

I did not see Dampfnudelblues but Winterkartoffelknödel (sounds also funny in German) is about a sheriff in a little bavarian village who has to clear up some murders. The trailer was not completely unfunny but perhaps I say that because I live in Bavaria too . In my cinema, the many starts hurt each other a lot. Everthing is only half full or even less. But most of the openers should have a long runtime.

The trend reports are the job of IndustriousAngel but I can tell you that almost everything improved (a lot), only Männerhort stays at 300k. What surprises me the most is Dracula Untold (now 250k). Saw Gone Girl yesterday in the biggest room of my cinema (it changed place with Männerhort) and it was almost sold out.

The second weekend trend says around 80k admissions this weekend. But I don't know if this is a good hold. At least SC2 has a good hold with around 50k admissions (-35%).

And the situation didn't improve much . For tomorrow, around 100 tickets are sold or reservated at 'my' cinema at the moment (all shows together!). Much worse than SC2. I would say that's right and I'm pretty sure "Männerhort" (for which I saw lots of commercials) will be a hit next week (clever timing by the way ). But perhaps this time people just don't know that this film starts or that M'Barek is in it or they don't know what its title means or shall mean.

The advance booking for "Who Am I" looks very bad at the moment but the film gets a good WOM, we will see. If boxofficemojo doesn't report the German Top 40 (like this week, but I think this is extremly rarely), you can find at least the Top 25 (weekly admissions and the total admissions of a film) here: wulfmansworld.com/Kino/Charts/Kino_Charts_der_Woche.

Did you see? Boxofficemojo updated the numbers for Ex3 (the first week). Is this a good start for Non-Stop? I expected (a lot) more, but in THR it says its weekend number is a success. Don't know...

Couldn't agree more! I just looked at gewara.com and saw that surprisingly Non-Stop starts today/tomorrow. I didn't see it on the most anticipated films list before. Or perhaps I overlook it. The presales are at 1837 at the moment, but overall, this film could be a big competition for the Apes and Ex3, no? Or is today only the start of the presales and the regular start is later? Normally I would wish this film good luck in China, but not this weekend.

Yes, I'm also very confident. It doesn't come out till November in Germany (it changed from February 2015 - a good sign), but it's already doing very well in the Netherlands which is often a good indicator. First I thought this movie is only something for the US-market (mostly because the actors are pretty unknown here), but if it gets a good WOM (which I think), why should this movie not do at least acceptable numbers in Europe?

This week the numbers from Rentrak are at least more correct with a total of 178.3M. My guestimate would be that it is around 190M: 153.2M (BOM with Friday) + 0.9M (US weekend) + 27-28M (China, 8 days) + the rest (around 7M).

Nice increases for all! I wonder which movie will be #1 this week, the Apes or Ex3? Probably the Apes since its Monday was much better...but a close race .

Thanks for the answers . Yes, because this china boxoffice forum is always right . Probably it's the second possibility. I think like Super Girl said, they just had no numbers for Sunday both for the Apes and Ex3. That's almost exactly what is missing.

Yes or a bit better. Grrrr, Apes in front of Ex3 . But nice numbers for both! Only to be prepared, I heard that Apes and Ex3 have a good WOM in China but despite that we should expect big drops tomorrow, no? Are 3M a good start for Divergent?