Quigley

Films released this weekend: Jack Reacher: Never Go Back Hacksaw Ridge The Light Between Oceans Virgin Mountain [Icelandic–Danish] Sieranevada [Romanian] Death in Sarajevo [Bosnian] The Shop on Main Street [Czechoslovak] 'Hacksaw Ridge' and 'The Light Between Oceans' seem like plausible contenders for first place this weekend, unlike 'Jack Reacher 2', whose predecessor opened to just 3,873 admissions in January 2013. However, I'm betting on 'Trolls' achieving a small enough drop to displace 'Doctor Strange' from first place, while also outrunning the two aforementioned contenders.

What do we expect from Sunday? 20-25% drop from Sat?

Your US & Canada prediction is too low.

Weekend 03-06/11/2016 Ranking Title Weekend admissions % Change from last weekend Total admissions Week 1 Doctor Strange 24,154 -58.5% 114,675 2 2 Trolls 24,056 N/A 24,056 1 3 The Accountant 18,244 -46.3% 134,577 3 4 Snowden 14,611 N/A 14,611 1 5 Inferno 9,322 -64.0% 227,122 4 6 I, Daniel Blake [British–French] 6,210 N/A 6,210 1 7 Julieta [Spanish] 4,709 -49.6% 33,868 3 8 Pete's Dragon 4,662 -64.7% 32,467 3 9 Toni Erdmann [German–Austrian] 4,559 -56.8% 17,996 2 10 Storks 3,900 -70.9% 74,323 5 Source: http://flix.gr/news/box-office-03112016.html What a weekend! Two days ago, I said that it would be a close race between 'Doctor Strange' and 'Trolls' but I never expected it to be this close. Only 98 admissions separated 1st and 2nd place, which is definitely the closest photo-finish since 2011 (I haven't compiled data before 2011): Photo-finishes (Top 2 within 1,000 admissions of each other) #1 Admissions #2 Admissions Difference Weekend Doctor Strange 24,154 Trolls 24,056 98 03-06/11/2016 Captain America: The Winter Soldier 7,246 The Pirate Fairy 7,113 133 17-20/04/2014 Learning to Drive 4,864 Fantastic Four 4,729 135 13-16/08/2015 Olympus Has Fallen 19,266 Ακάλυπτος 19,084 182 21-24/03/2013 Scream 4 19,879 Rio 19,654 225 14-17/04/2011 Source Code 7,469 Rio 7,121 348 21-25/04/2011* Broken City 11,653 Olympus Has Fallen 11,283 370 28-31/03/2013 Southpaw 11,362 Mr. Holmes 10,983 379 23-26/07/2015 Πέμπτη & 12 38,627 Frozen 38,168 459 02-05/01/2014 La Famille Belier 7,139 Terminator Genisys 6,643 496 02-05/07/2015 *5-day weekend 'Doctor Strange' had strong weekday admissions and looks poised to cross 150K admissions easily. Its drop was very impressive, given that it opened on a holiday weekend. In terms of this year's superhero films, its 2nd-weekend drop only trailed 'Suicide Squad', but bested 'Deadpool', 'BvS' and 'Civil War', all which opened on a holiday. This bodes well for the long run, although it's too early to say if it can approach 200K admissions. As for new releases, 'Trolls' scored the best DWA opening outside the 'Madagascar', 'Shrek' and 'Kung Fu Panda' franchises, although a 24K-admissions opening is barely a number to celebrate, especially since there are no holidays in the near future to boost its mulitplier. 'Snowden' was not a catastrophe but its per-screen average was quite low (236 admissions), while 'I, Daniel Blake' was on the other side of the spectrum with a humongous average of 887 admissions per screen. In other news, all holdovers tumbled to the ground on this post-holiday weekend, with no film in the Top 10 dropping by less than 45% (most by more than 55%). 'The Accountant' had the best hold and has actually done very well since its release. 150K admissions are guaranteed and, at this point, the film appears poised to give 'Argo' (182K admissions) and 'The Imitation Game' (186K admissions) a run for their money. In the meantime, 'Inferno' is still on course for a 250K-admission finish while the four films at the bottom of the chart had big drops. 'Pete's Dragon' will soon surpass 'The BFG' and 'Alice 2', but its total is still pathetic, and 'Storks' will probably finish around 80K admissions. I'll update soon with news about films below the Top 10 that may have reached certain milestones.

Universal's $6.9B record is in sight.

Next milestones: surpassing Alice WW (defo happening), surpassing BvS OS (unclear)

Films released this weekend: A Monster Calls [English-laguage Spanish] Snowden Blood Father [English-language French] Trolls I, Daniel Blake [British–French] Alone in Berlin [English-language German–French–British] Under the Shadow [Persian-laguage British–Jordanian–Qatari] Aferim! [Romanian] Invisible [GR] Another torrent of films floods cinemas. Looks like a race between 'Doctor Strange' and 'Trolls' for #1.

I think ¥20B is quite safe.

I think it may even reach $340-350M by Sunday

The Chinese box office feels like a horror film atm...

It used to be that many studios shared the box office pie. Then it turned into a six-studio oligopoly (with Lionsgate-Summit Entertainment making a short-lived effort to join), but now it is clear that Sony and Paramount have lost the game. Yeah, no Bond or Transformers can save them. Out of the four that survived, Fox, WB and Uni all have enough franchises to live through the next few years, but they are just that: franchises. Disney is the only one that is selling its brands, and selling them successfully, instead of individual franchises. That's why it's doing so well I think. And I know, it's evil, even diabolical, but it is nevertheless a reality we need to face.

Global Disney total reaches new studio record: $5.85B Among Disney's industry records, broken this year: fastest studio to hit $2B NA (July 16), $3B OS (July 6) and $5B global (July 10). source: Deadline

With 10 months of 2016 now over, the year-to-date is leading 2015 by 5.5% (when only weekend admissions are taken into account). However, it is still to be seen whether the last two months can live up to last year's impressive performance. Can 'Fantastic Beasts', 'Roza tis Smirnis' and 'Rogue One' match 'Spectre', 'Worlds Apart' and 'The Force Awakens'? Even if they fall slightly short, 2016 is still ahead, but not by much, so every last admission counts. With October ending on a high note, anything is possible.

Weekend 27-30/10/2016 Ranking Title Weekend admissions % Change from last weekend Total admissions Week 1 Doctor Strange 58,232 N/A 58,232 1 2 The Accountant 33,986 -15.1% 99,379 2 3 Inferno 25,907 -32.8% 207,842 3 4 Storks 13,381 +25.4% 69,253 4 5 Pete's Dragon 13,193 +17.4% 26,764 2 6 Toni Erdmann 10,547 N/A 10,547 1 7 Julieta 9,340 -21.5% 25,928 2 8 Finding Dory 6,698 +40.2% 284,680 9 9 The Girl on the Train 5,998 -29.4% 107,578 4 10 The Secret Life of Pets 5,217 +54.4% 197,427 11 Source: http://flix.gr/news/box-office-27102016.html Wow! October ended with a real box-office boom, as always of course due to the October 28th national holiday (with children off school on the 27th too). If you don't remember such big increases in weekend gross last year, that's because the 27th and 28th fell on a Tuesday and Wednesday, but that still served the box office well, since all films sold around the same from Monday to Wednesday as they did on the following Thursday-Sunday period. This year, however, we had the added surprise of 'Doctor Strange', which exceeded expectations all around the world including Greece. Especially in Greece, this success can be attributed to a significant extent to Benedict Cumberbatch's involvement, since other obscure Marvel films haven't fared as well in the past. In terms of the MCU, the only superhero origin film it didn't beat was 'Iron Man' (61,400 admissions). Original superhero films have done really well in 2016, with 'Doctor Strange' coming in only 3.3K admissions below 'Suicide Squad' and not far behind 'Deadpool'. There are no historical superhero comparisons for this release date. However, having opened on a holiday weekend, I think its multiplier will be on the low end. 'BvS' and 'Civil War' both opened on holiday weekends and had very low mulitpliers, which would take this film to about 125-130K admissions. I think a total closer to 150K admissions is more likely though, especially with the competition looking scarce, before 'Fantastic Beasts' casts its spell. In terms of openers, 'Toni Erdmann' also had a decent opening from 17 screens. As for holdovers, they all had very decent holds (family films had increases). It's hard to isolate the effect of the holiday from word-of-mouth, but 'The Accountant' had the best drop among non-family films in the Top 10, so maybe word-of-mouth was not so bad after all. It will cross 100K admissions on Monday and it is hard to imagine it end up below 150K admissions by the end of its run. 'Inferno' seems to have a lot of steam left. Its opening may have been disappointing, as was its second-weekend drop, but those issues didn't stop it from cruising past 200K admissions. It will probably make it to 250K admissions and could even scrape past 'BvS' by the end of its run. 'Storks' and 'Pete's Dragon' had a great time this weekend, but now that the party's over, I'm not sure how far they can go. Look out for a possible 100K- and 50K-admission finish, respectively. In terms of milestones, 'The Girl on the Train' made it past 100K admissions, 'Pets' will cross 200K admisisons next weekend and 'Dory' is, for the first time, ahead of 'Minions' in total gross in the same time in its run. Furthermore, 'Minions' 9th weekend gross was less than a third of 'Dory's. It is probably the first weekend since early September that 300K admissions look like a possibility again. As I've said before, animated films' runs are so lengthy that their totals are difficult to predict, so we can only sit and wait really...

Disney is now guaranteed to reach $4B in OS gross, probs even before Moana is released. It has already surpassed its previous record (2015) of $3.57B, which is (and now was) the third biggest a studio has ever achieved. It will also push Fox's 2014 total of $3.73B out of the way by next weekend. The overseas crown is currently held by Universal's 2015 gross of $4.44B, but unless Moana and Rogue One tank big size, then Disney will be holding the crown by late December. Projection for final total: $4.7-4.8B. The domestic all-time crown is also a foregone conclusion (current holder: Universal $2.44B, Disney's current 2016 gross: $2.15B -> projection for final total: $3.0-3.1B). What a year!

True. With 30% drops from now, the film could surpass BvS; however, that seems quite unlikely.

It made an est. $2.2M over the weekend OS, so yeah it will.

Perfect opening!!! Don't forget that the percentage comps are wrt local currencies. so if it maintains this lead compared to Ant-Man and GotG, it can make it to $460-500M.

In France, it opened higher than all previous original MCU films (Incredible Hulk, Iron Man, Thor, Ant-Man, Captain America) - exception GotG. That's a fantastic result!

Films released this weekend: Doctor Strange Toni Erdmann [German-Austrian] Complete Unknown L'attesa [Italian-French] Olga [Brazilian]

So $60M should be good enough for Strange.

Weekend 20-23/10/2016 Ranking Title Weekend admissions % Change from last weekend Total admissions Week 1 The Accountant 40,012 N/A 40,012 1 2 Inferno 38,532 -52.6% 163,642 2 3 Julieta 11,905 N/A 11,905 1 4 Pete's Dragon 11,240 N/A 11,240 1 5 Storks 10,674 -34.2% 54,181 3 6 The Girl on the Train 8,490 -53.8% 96,429 3 7 Ouija: Origin of Evil 6,170 N/A 6,170 1 8 Finding Dory 4,776 -20.3% 277,141 8 9 The Secret Life of Pets 3,378 -20.3% 191,757 10 10 Don't Breathe 2,383 -64.6% 35,350 3 Source: http://flix.gr/news/box-office-20102016.html 'The Accountant' managed to beat 'Inferno's sophomore frame and in fact opened a tad higher than 'Sully'. I am a bit skeptical about the long run, since neither critics or audiences in the US seem to have found the movie particularly entertaining (judging by reviews and the second-weekend drop). However, it is not surprising at all for the film to have such a solid opening, since Ben Affleck movies have fared well in the past in Greece: 'The Town' had opened to 23,090 admissions in 2010 (total admissions: 89,692 admissions), 'Argo' opened to 30,765 admissions in 2013 and enjoyed a whopping 6x multiplier, all the way to 182,040 admissions, and finally 'Gone Girl' opened to 55,449 admissions also enjoying a perfect 5x mulitplier which brought its total to 276,932 admissions. If 'The Accountant' played out like 'Gone Girl' (similar release date), then 200K admissions is in sight although, given the circumstances, 150K+ admissions woud be satisfactory. Besides, that is about as much as 'Sully's total. In terms of other openers, 'Julieta' had a decent opening, given it only opened in 20 screens. 'Pete's Dragon' set a new record-low for Disney live action since 2008, a record that has been broken by three recent films ('Alice 2', 'The BFG' and now 'Pete's Dragon' – by the way 'The Jungle Book' came quite close to setting a record-low too). Finally 'Ouija 2', another sequel that no one asked for, opened higher than its predecessor (5,465 admissions), but to be honest the bar was quite low to begin with. The original ended its run with 12,687 admissions, but I don't think that just surpassing such a number will in any way be a success for the sequel. Moving onto holdovers, 'Inferno' had a better hold than 'Illuminati' (-57.3%) but was still way off from 'The Da Vinci Code' (-17.8% in Athens). If it follows 'Illuminati's trajectory from now on, it would sell around 270-275K admissions in total, possibly edging ahead of 'BvS'. At the moment, this does seem like the most probable outcome, especially with a national holiday coming up on Friday, October 28th. In fact, schools close on both on Thursday and Friday, and in the second biggest city, Thessaloniki, Wednesday is also a school holiday, since the 26th is the commemoration of its patron saint. All in all, expect big business over the next week or so. That also bodes well for a triad of animated films: 'Storks', 'Dory' and 'Pets', which all had minor drops this week and are looking forward to this lucrative holiday. 'The Girl on the Train' is no 'Gone Girl' and 'Don't Breathe' also seems to be out of breath. The prior will at least surpass 100K admissions very soon, but that is about as far as it will get. Marvel's 'Doctor Strange' opens next week, and I expect it to open on par with the first 'Captain America', 'Guardians of the Galaxy' and 'Ant-Man', although I wouldn't be surprised if it opened slightly higher due to the holiday – and due to Benedict Cumberbatch. The only other film where he has been the front and center of the marketing is 'The Imitation Game', which had a great run in Greece (185,827 admissions), although this one belongs to a completely different genre. We'll see! I'll soon update the 2016 numbers on the first page, but in the meantime have a look at the updates I've made to other years and the all-time chart.

'The Accountant' tops the Greek box office with 40K admissions! Other new films in Top 10: Julieta, Pete's Dragon, Ouija: Origin of Evil. Full analysis later today. In the meantime check out the updated section on the first page, regarding top films of each year and of all time. It has been enriched with new data and I have made my best effort to complete 2006's Top 10, which was previously empty basically.

At this point it still looks poised to beat BvS OS

Poor Dory... did worse even compared to Ice Age 5 and Pets... :'(