Quigley

SW7 HP7-P2 France $5.2M $7.1M Italy $2.0M $4.6M Sweden $1.7M $2.1M Norway $1.1M $1.8M Denmark $1.0M $1.6M Belgium $0.8M $1.4M Netherlands $0.8M $1.7M Finland $0.6M $0.8M In the coloured markets, both HP7-P2 and SW7 broke opening-day records, yet the dollar is so strong now compared to July 2011 that the gross in dollars is pathetic.

According to Rth, midnight record broken in Australia. Also, possibly biggest opening day of the year in France.

Films have opened to more than $10M during OW I think, so $7M sounds plausible.

Weekend 10-13/12/2015 Ranking Title Weekend admissions % Change from last weekend Total admissions Week 1 Ουζερί Τσιτσάνης (Ouzeri Tsitsanis) [GR] 23,537 -22.5% 74,585 2 2 Bridge of Spies 17,970 -24.9% 105,889 3 3 Spectre 11,667 -41.8% 463,900 5 4 The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 2 9,933 -50.5% 108,544 3 5 Carol 8,719 -12.0% 23,540 2 6 By the Sea 7,231 N/A 7,231 1 7 Mune, le Gardien de la Lune (French) 5,460 -8.1% 12,348 2 8 Goosebumps 4,036 N/A 4,036 1 9 Hotel Transylvania 2 3,636 -9.5% 162,314 8 10 Mustang 3,153 N/A 3,153 1 Source: http://www.grandmagazine.gr/ngine/article/2835/ena-ouzeri-kai-mia-gefura-kratisan-anoixto-to-box-office I must admit last week's prediction for first place was wildly inaccurate. Panagiotopoulos's 'I Kori tou Rembrandt' (aka 'Rembrandt's Daughter') was a complete flop, earning just 1,597 admissions in 13th place. That was despite that fact that Panagiotopoulos is a renowned director, as are many members of the cast. I guess people thought 'Ouzeri Tsitsanis' is a much better choice, or they are saving their tickets for next weekend's 'Enas Allos Kosmos' (aka 'Worlds Apart'), which is Papakaliatis's sophomore directorial effort, after wildly successful 'An...' (aka 'What If...'). 'Ouzeri Tstitsanis' therefore held first place with an impressive second-weekend drop of 23%. Although it will reach 100,000 admissions for sure during the holidays, 'Enas Allos Kosmos' may slow it down. An equally impressive performance was put on by 'Bridge of Spies' which remained in second place and is days away from surpassing 'Mockingjay - Part 2'. The film's trajectory also brings to mind 'The Imitation Game', which opened last January to about 38,000 admissions on its way to a 185,000 admissions total. I think that, because of the holiday period, we can expect a similar total for the 'Bridge of Spies' too. As for worldwide blockbusters 'Spectre' and 'Mockingjay - Part 2', they switched positions in the Top 10. Bond 24 is still chasing after that coveted 500,000 admission milestone while the 'Hunger Games' finale is only 4,000 admissions behind 'Part 1' in the same time in its run and is eyeing that film's 128,000 admission total. Both films will, more likely than not, miss these targets in my opinion. All family-genre holdovers had impressive drops of about 10%, which extends below the Top 10 to films like 'The Peanuts Movie', 'Inside Out' and 'Minions'. All newcomers, however, were complete disasters with the biggest one scoring a bit over 7,000 admissions. 'Mustang' scored the biggest per-theater average, which was still at an underwhelming 450 admissions. There is nothing to worry about though, since 'Enas Allos Kosmos' is set to ignite the market next weekend. There are expectations of an opening above 100,000 admissions, building on the 98,790 admission opening of 'What if...'. Other releases for next Thursday include Pixar's second 2015 feature film 'The Good Dinsoaur', which frankly has grim prospects should it perform similarly to other European markets, French film 'La Tête Haute', Russian film 'Durak' and Italian film 'L' Arbitro'.

If Ep7 earned about the same amount (in dollars) as current opening-day record holders in the territories in which it will be released on Wednesday, it should make around $25 million. With the dollar being strong lately, I think anything above $20 million would be perfect. (They way I calculated this is by adding up the opening days of HP7 - P2 in these countries - assuming they are still the records: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harry_Potter_and_the_Deathly_Hallows_%E2%80%93_Part_2#Other_markets. In certain countries where I knew that a different movie is currently the record holder, I used that number instead, e.g. in Philippines it is Avengers 2 with about $1.6 million)

I would like to remind you of a little film called 'Star Wars: The Force Awakens' which comes out next weekend in the entire world (save for China, India and Greece). It will be very interesting to see which films are hurt by the slash-and-burn effect of 'Episode VII', but I think it goes without saying that 'Spectre' will be annihilated. $850-860M WW is still the likeliest final tally for this film.

"I’m cautioned by rival distributors that it’s early to call this dinosaur extinct, despite some reports to the contrary. It’s particularly important that Australia, Japan and Brazil are still to come. The southern hemisphere markets will be on summer vacation when the Peter Sohn-helmed film stomps into town while Japan has the same March release date as Frozen did two years ago and TGD is expected to play in that dino-loving market. China remains a question mark, however, with a release as-yet unconfirmed and that could mean a potential swing of about $40M with a final global take of anywhere from $385M-$425M, per our sources." Source: Deadline Guys I think given the impressive holds of this weekend and the holiday period coming up, there is no reason to be all gloomy. Yeah, I know, even $500M looks impossible, and anything below that is sh*t, but at least it's not a complete disaster. It will most likely make a profit. I'd also like to point to this interesting perspective: http://variety.com/2015/film/box-office/good-dinosaur-box-office-1201655546/

I guess Inside Out will end up at no. 5. Not bad at all.

What do you think abou this report (p. 32)? http://www.iom.gr/inst/iom/gallery/syxnothtes07.pdf Obvioulsy some are estimates but I think the rest should be pretty accurate. Note: Since it was published for the period July-September 2009, I suppose some of the films in the 2008-2009 season were still playing in cinemas at the time (e.g. Soula Ela Xana).

I added years 2003-5 to the first page, with data that are as complete as possible, and also updated certain admissions for more recent films in years 2007-9 and 2013-5. I have also updated my last two posts with some info that Joel M offered.

[UPDATE] Additional comment for the above weekend: 'Spectre' is now the highest-grossing film since 'Skyfall', and therefore the highest-grossing film of the last 3 years. Since 'Avatar', the 4 biggest films have been the following: Skyfall: 579,565 Νήσος (Nisos) [GR]: 548,733 Αν… (An...) [GR]: 531,447 Spectre: 444,415 (and counting)

Weekend 3-6/12/2015 Ranking Title Weekend admissions % Change from last weekend Total admissions Week 1 Ουζερί Τσιτσάνης (Ouzeri Tsitsanis) [GR] 30,368 N/A 30,368 1 2 Bridge of Spies 23,929 -28.7% 77,836 2 3 The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 2 20,077 -53.8% 87,827 2 4 Spectre 20,057 -48.9% 444,415 4 5 Carol 9,907 N/A 9,907 1 6 Mune, le Gardien de la Lune (French) 5,940 N/A 5,940 1 7 Hotel Transylvania 2 4,016 -35.8% 158,395 7 8 The Peanuts Movie 3,298 -44.5% 58,301 5 9 Saul Fia (Son of Saul) [Hungarian] 1,800 -47.4% 21,532 4 10 Minuscule - La Vallée des Fourmis Perdues [French-Belgian] 1,562 -51.4% 9,643 3 Sources: http://www.grandmagazine.gr/ngine/article/2822/to-ouzeri-tou-tsitsani-mazepse-arketous-8amones http://www.flix.gr/news/box-office-03122015.html http://www.flix.gr/news/box-office-03122015.html http://flix.gr/news/greek-box-office-27-30-11-2014.html Long-waited 'Ouzeri Tsitanis' scored a first-place debut but its very small per-theater average (266 admissions) was quite disappointing. It's a solid start, the biggest of the year for a Greek film, just ahead of January's 'Oi Gamproi tis Eftihias', which sold 30,019 admissions in second place, albeit from about half the theaters. [UPDATE:] As Joel M pointed out, two other major Greek productions will be released this month, which could seriously jeopardise the chances of 'Ouzeri Tsitsanis' to reach 100,000 admissions, but with the holidays coming soon let's hope that the market can accommodate more than one Greek film. Amond other newcomers, 'Carol' impressed with a 1,238 admissions per-theater average from only 8 theaters in the country. 'Mune', which opened at 47 theaters, earned significantly less. As for holdovers, 'Mockingjay - Part 2' and 'Spectre' both saw substantial drops, while 'Bridge of Spies' finished in second place with the lowest drop among the Top 10. Don't be surprised if its final tally surpasses 'Mockingjay - Part 2' before the end of the year. 'Part 2' dropped less than 'Part 1' did in its second weekend and actually earned more in admissions, despite earning less than its predecessor on opening weekend. Therefore, 'Part 2' has still got a chance to outgross 'Part 1'. On the other hand, 'Spectre' definitely won't beat 'Skyfall' and the target of 500,000 admissions is also under serious doubt. Among other holdovers, the only noteworthy performance was recorded by 'Hotel Trasnylvania 2' which dropped 36%. It's got another one-and-a-half weeks before the release of 'The Good Dinosaur', which will anyway probably not be commercially successful. Beating 'Spongebob' (180,397 admissions) is thus not out of the question. 'Saul Fia', which probably spent its final weekend in the Top 10, has done very well for a Hungarian film in the Greek market - not to mention it's been playing in less than 10 theaters - and we might even see it approach the 30,000 admissions milestone by the end of its run. Next weekend, there are 6 new releases, including Greek tragicomedy 'Η Κόρη του Ρέμπραντ' ('Rembrandt's Daughter'). It's essentially gonna be a fight between two Greek films for first place (for the first time this year, I guess) but let's not exclude 'Bridge of Spies' from the picture either.

The drop in holdovers for Spectre was 1 - 16.61 / 30.67 = 46%. Not bad but with Star Wars coming up in two weeks, $650M is still in doubt.

I think what these sharp drops really show is that the market isn't saturated with screens. If screen count matters so much, it means movies gross less because people can't go to see them. In other words, it is not that other films are more appealing but that moviegoers have limited or no choice of films.

This weekend's releases: Ουζερί Τσιτσάνης (Ouzeri Tsitsanis) [GR] Carol Mune, le Gardien de la Lune (French) Καλή σου Νύχτα κυρ’ Αλέξανδρε... (Good night, Mr Alexander...) [GR]

How does that compare to other films' presales?

That doesn't really help cuz u're not explaining how u got those numbers.

Weekend 26-29/11/2015 Ranking Title Weekend admissions % Change from last weekend Total admissions Week 1 The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 2 43,444 N/A 43,444 1 2 Spectre 39,226 -53.9% 407,431 3 3 Bridge of Spies 33,544 N/A 33,544 1 4 Hotel Transylvania 2 6,252 -11.3% 153,813 6 5 The Peanuts Movie 5,939 -26.3% 54,516 4 6 Saul Fia (Son of Saul) [Hungarian] 3,421 -27.6% 18,047 3 7 Minuscule - La Vallée des Fourmis Perdues [French-Belgian] 3,214 -18.6% 7,787 2 8 99 Homes 3,085 N/A 3,085 1 9 Chevalier [GR] 2,517 N/A 2,517 1 10 Dheepan [French] 2,284 -48.0% 8,069 2 Source: http://www.flix.gr/news/box-office-26112015.html This weekend had its fair share of interesting minutiae. The 'Hunger Games' finale failed to surpass its predecessor's opening weekend (45,608 admissions). It came close though and still managed to top the third weekend of 'Spectre' to finish in first place. Probably the lukewarm reception of the previous chapter had something to do with this decline. As I have expressed in other parts of the forum, I believe that word-of-mouth will spread faster for this film, since it is actually a good ending to the series. So we may even see it surpass the previous chapter in total admissions (128,094). 'Spectre' continued its precipitous decline with a 54% drop. Its third weekend was 33.5% lower than 'Skyfall's third weekend and, in terms of cumulative-to-date admissions, it has earned about 48,000 less than 'Skyfall'. It is doubtable whether it can reach 500,000 admissions although it will nevertheless come close. 'Bridge of Spies' on the other hand had as solid opening. With positive word-of-mouth, it could easily reach 100,000 admissions during, or even before, the holidays. Animated holdovers fared well, dropping no more than 27%, while 'Saul Fia' had another impressive hold. 'Dheepan's drop was definitely disappointing, as was the opening weekend of Greek film 'Chevalier'. These films were playing in 9 and 8 theaters respectively, which may seem like a small number, but then again 'Saul Fia' is playing in the same number of theaters and has performed way better than either. Next week will likely see 'Mockingjay - Part 2' dominate the box office once more. 4 new films will be released.

TGD could've done better...

I wouldn't say that Mockingjay and The Good Dinosaur had mixed reviews. They were mostly positive. The issue was expectations. People had got used to the Hunger Games films having actual hunger games in the movie. Since the 3rd and 4th movie didn't have any hunger games, general interest declined. In the case of TGD, the dinosaurs looked badly animated and the plot seemed too simplistic. I think that the opening weekend is rarely affected by WOM but much more by issues like the above, i.e. promotion. WOM will determine the the opening weekend-to-total gross ratio. Mockingjay already had a better second-weekend drop in NA than any other film in the franchise and we may see a good hold for TGD too (as good as post-Thanksgiving weekend drops can get). In the case of Spectre, it had the making of a billion-dollar blockbuster and I think everyone on opening weekend thought that reaching $1 billion was very likely (the result of good promotion). Three weekends later (when WOM had kicked in for good) we can all see that it really matters nowadays whether a film has good WOM, because this film clearly didn't. Bottom line: All 3 underperformed but I think you should appreciate that they underperformed for different reasons (smaller opening vs bigger % drops).

Spectre had yet another drop of (much) more than 50% (1 - 30.4 / 65.3 = 53.4%). Its worldwide weekend (including NA) was $43.2M. It looks like it can muster an additional $70M (43.2 * 1.3 / 0.5 - 43.2 = 69.12) worldwide from existing markets (including NA). Japan is the only market left to open and I doubt it can make more than $30M there. After all, Skyfall made $32M there when the exchange rate was way better. By and large, Spectre cannot make more than $100M at the worldwide box office, meaning it won't even surpass Inside Out ($851.5M) or $850M. Please let me know if you notice any significant flaw in the above argument. 1.3 is the average ratio of weekly-to-weekend grosses 0.5 is the average weekend % drop from now on Both are predictions based on prior data and upcoming competition

That was a massive increase for The Good Dinosaur on Saturday but it still had a horrible opening weekend. Even with small decreases from now on, it can only change from a flop to an OK run.

So embarassing...

Hunger Games Friday gross dropped 58% from last Friday. Not bad.

Well... after what happened to Spectre, let's not keep our hopes up.