These are all important and rational points to make. I agree. I just think we should wait for at least some promotional material to come out before making a guess. But for now $400-$450M sounds reasonable. After all, the WOM was better for Alice than Clash so an equal % drop would be disappointing.
IO will ALMOST DEFINITELY beat Minions in Italy.
I would never have expected this, especially given how well Minions performed in Italy.
And now it's shaping up to have a similarly impressive run in Germany.
Roughly €3.65M weekend and €18.7M total. It's got one more weekend before the arrival of MR2 and HT2 so I think becoming second biggest animated film is guaranteed. If its holds are exceptional, then maybe first?? (long shot though - Ice Age 3 is SO HUGE)
IO's also doing great in Germany where it will probs open to at least $6M. Given it will earn at least $3M in Italy, this is shaping up to another $10M+ weekend.
Projections:
$421M until now
$25M more from existing markets
$40M from Germany + Austria
$60M from China
ONA Total: $546M
Domestic Total: $354M
WW Total: $900M (lol, I didn't mean to make predictions that would add up to this number but they did)
The report now says $1.161 billion. Can they make up their mind?
http://www.screendaily.com/box-office/universal-crosses-4bn-at-international-box-office/5094371.article?blocktitle=INTERNATIONAL-BOX-OFFICE-NEWS&contentID=40079