Eric Prime

fyc

1. Will Once Upon A Time make more than $35M? 1000 Yes 2. Will Once Upon A Time make more than $50M? 2000 No 3. Will Once Upon A Time make more than $42.5M? 3000 Yes 4. Will Once Upon A Time make more than half of Lion King's Weekend total? 4000 Yes 5. Will Spiderman overtake Aladdin Domestically by the end of the weekend? 5000 No 6. Will Spiderman stay above Toy Story 4? 1000 Yes 7. Will Crawl stay above Yesterday? 2000 Yes 8. Will Endgame's PTA stay above $1000? 3000 Yes 9. Will Annabelle have a higher percentage drop than Midsommar? 4000 No 10. Will Stuber drop more than 52%? 5000 Yes 11. Will Toy Story increase more than 37% on Saturday? 1000 Yes 12. Will Secret Life of Pets stay in the top 12? 2000 Yes 13. Will Lion King Overtake Toy Story's Domestic Total by the end of the weekend? 3000 No 14. Which film in the upcoming top 12 will have the highest percentage drop? 4000 Midsommar 15. Will we see a CGI hippo balancing on the beak of a CGI toucan? 5000 Didn't you already ask that? Part B: The top 3 predictions will score points as follows: Closest: Within 1% - 15,000, Within 2,5% - 12000, Within 5% 9,000, Within 10% - 6000 Outside 10% - 3000 points 2nd Closest: Within 1% - 12,000, Within 2,5% - 10000, Within 5% 7,000, Within 10% - 4000 Outside 10% - 2000 points 3rd Closest: Within 1% - 10,000, Within 2,5% - 8000, Within 5% 5,000, Within 10% - 2000 Outside 10% - 1000 points 1. What will Once Upon a Time's OW be? 44.3M 2. What will Yesterday's percentage drop be? -27% 3. What will Aladdin's PTA be? $1470 Part 😄 There will be 6 films to place and points are expanded because traditionally people haven't scored well here: 2. Once Upon A Time in Hollywood 4. Toy Story 4 6. Yesterday 7. Aladdin 9. The Farewell 11. The Secret Life of Pets 2

The one thing that Neighborhood will likely have going for it, though things could change if it sucks, is that it will likely be a huge box office hit. Anecdotal, but I've been seeing a lot of people in my social circles going nuts over the trailer, and it was trending online the whole day. Especially if TIFF word comes out that it's a huge crowdpleaser a la Blind Side/Green Book, I can see it doing something crazy and do like $175M or whatever, which can go a long way for nominations, since The Academy will definitely want at least a couple of...popular movies. I also feel like if Little Women skips the fests (which isn't confirmed, but I wouldn't be surprised), it kind of has that uphill battle of not being able to build word with voters. Especially since Hollywood and Neighborhood won't have that problem. Of course then again, American Hustle did perfectly fine without a festival premiere. idk idk

https://deadline.com/2019/07/a-beautiful-day-in-the-neighborhood-sharing-is-caring-for-tristars-mister-rogers-trailer-1202653824/

Replace one of those movies with A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (probably either Little Women or one of the Netflix movies), and I'd agree 100%. I'm very very confident in Neighborhood winning the TIFF People's Choice Award.

Once Upon A Time in Hollywood Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-0 Days and Counting (FINAL REPORT) Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold TOTALS 0 56 1,902 7,066 26.92% Total Seats Sold Today: 533 Adjusted Comps 4.19x of Crawl 0 days before release 6.83x of Stuber 0 days before release 0.19x of The Lion King 0 days before release T-0 Crawl: 274 tickets sold (429 total) Once Upon: 500 tickets sold (1,799 total) Stuber: 140 tickets sold (251 total) Once Upon: 478 tickets sold (1,714 total) Lion King: 1,957 tickets sold (7,607 total) Once Upon: 406 tickets sold (1,468 total) And now, we end with a range that seems more definitive, about 4.2M to 5.1M. Now part of why things came down to Earth is how early I began tracking the finals for Once Upon. All the other movies had previews later, and I don't really have the time to track stuff at 6 or 7 right now. Either way, this range is what most people here have been indicating for the past couple days, so I'd say it's fair to pick a number somewhere around that.

No definitive word, but my feeling is it'll drop after Hobbs & Shaw opens

Hobbs & Shaw T-8 Days and Counting Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold TOTALS 0 30 219 5,506 3.98% Total Seats Sold Today: 27 Comps 0.09x of The Lion King 8 days before release T-8 Lion King: 267 tickets sold that day (2,468 tickets sold in total) For the record, Hobbs & Shaw has started to pick up some steam. Of course by "pick up steam", that just means selling in the single digits to the double digits. Especially compared to something like Lion King, which is sadly the only comp I have available, it makes the film seem like it is performing worse than it actually is. I'm not expecting much from the movie at the moment, but I sincerely doubt a 2M preview number is even remotely on the table.

Once Upon A Time in Hollywood Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 Day and Counting Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold TOTALS 0 56 1,369 7,066 19.37% Total Seats Sold Today: 451 Adjusted Comps 8.38x of Crawl 1 day before release 11.13x of Stuber 1 day before release 0.19x of The Lion King 1 day before release T-1 Crawl: 57 tickets sold that day (155 tickets sold total) Once Upon: 439 tickets sold that day (1,299 tickets sold total) Stuber: 36 tickets sold that day (111 tickets sold total) Once Upon: 388 tickets sold that day (1,263 tickets sold total) Lion King: 867 tickets sold that day (5,650 tickets sold total) Once Upon: 351 tickets sold that day (1,062 tickets sold total) So the range did come down to Earth slightly, but interestingly the lower end did see a rise. From 4.15M to 9.5M, now to 4.3M to 8.4M. It's good for two reasons. A smaller range means it's easier to extrapolate and measure things, while a higher lower end shows things are still trending in a positive direction. If these comps were actually of quality and work with the movie Once Upon is, I would be more confident in 4M+, but I am more and more confident in 3M+ by the day

Is @Rorschach cancelled?????

A live-action An American Tail/Ratatouille would flop harder than Mortal Engines, solely because of the lack of a cute factor. Rats and mice are disgusting irl.

I would say yes. If Once Upon follows Men in Black International (had 4PM previews), it would be at about 38.8M. If it follows Equalizer 2 (also 4PM previews, near identical calendar placement), that would mean 46.5M. It will likely have significantly better WOM than Men in Black, so that seems more like a low-end deal.

Once Upon A Time in Hollywood Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 Days and Counting Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold TOTALS 0 56 918 7,066 12.99% Total Showings Added Today: 12 Total Seats Added Today: 1,601 Total Seats Sold Today: 267 Adjusted Comps 9.52x of Crawl 2 days before release 11.31x of Stuber 2 days before release 0.18x of The Lion King 2 days before release T-2 Crawl: 32 tickets sold that day (98 tickets sold total) Once Upon: 223 tickets sold that day (874 tickets sold total) Stuber: 6 tickets sold that day (75 tickets sold total) Once Upon: 239 tickets sold that day (890 tickets sold total) Lion King: 731 tickets sold that day (4,783 tickets sold total) Once Upon: 202 tickets sold that day (853 tickets sold total) Now we're in a unique position. With such huge gains, the range has gone up considerably. Instead of 2.9M to 7.7M, we're now at 4.15M to 9.5M. Now before people start going crazy and predict breakout, it's important to note that none of these comps work. Crawl and Stuber had low presales, while Lion King is a completely different audience. However, the fact that this has reached the 4M mark on the low end, and it has gained a decent amount of tickets seems like a very good sign. Am I predicting 4M+ previews right now? No. Do I expect the lower end of the range to come down tomorrow and Thursday? Probably. But I am more confident in 3M+ previews than I was yesterday.

Martin > Fresh Prince

I would.

FWIW a couple of the theaters around me have been selling pretty decent so far. Maybe Tarantino fans are making this presales driven, but I feel pretty confident in 100M happening atm

https://www.tiff.net/events/ford-v-ferrari It mentions "Canadian Premiere" so it's probably heading to Telluride.

https://www.tiff.net/events/a-beautiful-day-in-the-neighborhood Coming to TIFF, and probably the Audience Award