Wrath

Wk17 Yes

Woo, last seeding week, I just noticed. Seeding is mostly set. 8wombi and POTUS are getting the byes. Technically, I could catch POtUS for 2nd if he loses, I win, and his score is catastrophically bad (probably 70 or lower), but thats pretty unlikely. JJ8, FancyArcher and DAR are out. Sorry. Wrath, GambitPool and Furiosa are all 99% likely in, and won’t get byes. The three of us could all end up anywhere between 3rd and 6th depending on how this week goes (ok, thats not precisely true but its close enough and is way, way briefer than laying out all the possible scenarios). The interesting spot is Zeesoh vs Morphin for the last slot. Morphin’s in 6th atm, but if Morphin loses AND Zeesoh wins, Zeesoh will sneak into 6th. Since Morphin has to contend with Furiosa, while Zeesoh gets JJ8 (who is an excellent human being but hasn’t had a strong run this game) this could really go either way.

I'm finally back from my travels. Nice to have spreadsheets again. I come for you, POTUS! I mean, 8 wombi!

This looks fantastic.

That's just magnificent.

Solo, AM&W, and MI:F might end up pretty tightly bunched DOM.

1. Will Crazy Rich Asians have a 3 Day more than $20M? 1000 YES 2. Will The Mile 22 Open to more than $20M? 2000 NO 3. Will Alpha Open to more than $8M? 3000 NO 4. Will Crazy Rich Asian's 5 day Total be more than Mile 22 and Alpha's combined Weekend totals? 4000 YES 5. Will Meg stay at number 1? 5000 NO 6. Will MI6 drop more than 43%? 1000 NO 7. Will SLenderman stay above Blakklansman? 2000 NO 8. Will Spy Who Dumped Me stay above Mamma Mia? 3000 NO 9. Will Christopher Robin enter the Summer Game domestic top 15 by the end of Sunday? 4000 NO 10. Will Ant Man have a PTA more than $1,450? 5000 YES 11. Will Equaliser's drop more than 45%? 1000 NO 12. Will Hotel Transylvania drop more than have at least 2 days over $1M? 2000 YES. You just meant the second half of that question, right? 13. Will Incredibles increase more than 70% on Saturday? 3000 YES 14. Will Mamma Mia drop more than 25% on Sunday? 4000 YES 15. Will Black Panther edge past $800M domestic this weekend? 5000 It got past it TODAY, Bro! Bonus: 9/15 5000 10/15 8000 11/15 12,000 12/15 16,000 13/15 20,000 14/15 24,000 15/15 30,000 Part B: The top 3 predictions will score points as follows: Closest: Within 1% - 15,000, Within 2,5% - 12000, Within 5% 9,000, Within 10% - 6000 Outside 10% - 3000 points 2nd Closest: Within 1% - 12,000, Within 2,5% - 10000, Within 5% 7,000, Within 10% - 4000 Outside 10% - 2000 points 3rd Closest: Within 1% - 10,000, Within 2,5% - 8000, Within 5% 5,000, Within 10% - 2000 Outside 10% - 1000 points 1. What will Crazy Rich Asians make for its 3 day? 22.5M 2. What will Slenderman's percentage change be? -59% 3. What will Hotel Transylvania's PTA be for the Weekend? 1,450 Part 😄 There will be 6 films to place and points are expanded because traditionally people haven't scored well here: 1. CrayCray Asians 3. MI:F 5. KKKlansman 7. Christopher Robin 9. Slenderman 10. Spy who dumped me

Maybe I was optimistic, but I thought The Meg would open better in China than $50m.

Skyscraper and Purge are both hitting he wall just short of the goalline. Its possible one will pass Bookclub, but theres no way both will.

Yeah, I think there will be a lot of 14/15s and 7/7s in the scoring this year.

Almost. Schumacherftw had Book Club, so he’s probably looking good for that. Game Night came out before the game started, and I think Christopher Robin to sneak onto the list. edit - also, you had 2 12s, so list will be 1 shorter. Mostly I agree with you, but I think the 13-15 spots will be 3 of: Purge Skyscraper Christopher Robin Book Club Crazy Rich Asians Hard to say which ones yet, but it’ll be close.

My quest for 15/15 is up a bit, as Meg looks like a slam dunk to beat Book Club and Spy Who Dumped Me isn’t. But not as much as I’d like as I also need both Purge and Skyscraper to beat Book Club (and hold on against Crazy Rich Asians) and thats looking shakey. I think I’m up from 1/10 to maybe 1/5, but still a long shot.

The trailers on this got better over time. The first one looked mediocre. Then, my impression is that its been fiddled with more frequently than with most movies. Instead of the usual 2 or 3-ish trailers, it feels like they've got 5-6 if not more. Last night, I saw a commercial for it, half of which was pitched as the swimming dog vs the shark and was really funny, but the tone and atmosphere are completely different from the initial trailer. Its not unheard of for a movie to really shift the tone they're shooting for (its horror! No, wait, its a dark comedy!). But usually its a jarring jump. Its not often you see this kind of granularity in the development of a film's marketing.

1. Will The Meg Open to more than $20M? 1000 YES 2. Will The Meg Open to more than $28M? 2000 NO 3. Will The Meg Open to more than $24M? 3000 YES 4. Will Slender Man Open to more than $15M? 4000 NO 5. Will Slender Man have a better PTA than The Meg? 5000 NO 6. Will MI6 Win the weekend? 1000 NO 7. Will Blakklansman make more than Dog Days 3 Day? 2000 YES 8. Will Christopher Robin stay in the top 3? 3000 YES 9. Will Teen titans stay above Jurassic World? 4000 NO 10. Will Ant Man drop more than 34%? 5000 YES 11. Will Equaliser's PTA stay above $2,500? 1000 YES 12. Will Hotel Transylvania drop more than 36%? 2000 NO 13. Will Darkest Minds finish over $500k below Incredibles? 3000 YES 14. Will Mamma Mia finish closer in dollars to Ant Man or Spy Who Dumped Me? 4000 Spy who dumped me 15. Will Jason Statham do what Liam refused with the wolf and punch the effing shark? 5000 Kick some shark ass, Statham. Bonus: 9/15 5000 10/15 8000 11/15 12,000 12/15 16,000 13/15 20,000 14/15 24,000 15/15 30,000 Part B: The top 3 predictions will score points as follows: Closest: Within 1% - 15,000, Within 2,5% - 12000, Within 5% 9,000, Within 10% - 6000 Outside 10% - 3000 points 2nd Closest: Within 1% - 12,000, Within 2,5% - 10000, Within 5% 7,000, Within 10% - 4000 Outside 10% - 2000 points 3rd Closest: Within 1% - 10,000, Within 2,5% - 8000, Within 5% 5,000, Within 10% - 2000 Outside 10% - 1000 points 1. What will The Meg make for its 3 day? 26M 2. What will Black Panther's percentage change be? -97% 3. What will Eighth Grade's PTA be for the Weekend? 1,900 Part 😄 There will be 6 films to place and points are expanded because traditionally people haven't scored well here: 1. Meg 3. Christopher Robin 4. KKKlansman 6. HT3 8. EQ2 11. Teen Titans

Abstain

Id love to abstain, but kinda pointless after last week. wk16 Yes

So, you’re saying that you’re going to be That One Guy?

I wouldn’t throw in the towel yet. I did ‘em on my phone at the Airport while wIting for a connecting flight. Probably not my best effort.

1. Will Christopher Robin Open to more than $30M? 1000 YES 2. Will Christopher Robin Open to more than $35M? 2000 NO 3. Will The Spy who Dumped Me Open to more than $15M? 3000 YES 4. Will THe Spy WHo Dumped Me Open to more than $20M? 4000 NO 5. Will the 2 films combined OW be over $50M? 5000 NO 6. Will Darkest Minds open to more than $8M? 1000 NO 7. Will Death of a Nation make more than 8th Grade? 2000 NO 8. Will Mission Impossible stay within $5M of Christopher Robin? 3000 YES 9. Will Equaliser stay above Hotel Transylvania? 4000 YES 10. Will Mamma Mia drop more than 53%? 5000 NO 11. Will Jurassic World's PTA stay above $1,600? 1000 YES 12. Will Ant Man drop more than 50%? 2000 NO 13. Will Skyscraper stay in the top 12? 3000 NO 14. Will Black Panther magic past $700M domestic this weekend? 4000 NO 15. Eeyore - Posthumously 1. What will CHristopher Robin make for its 3 day? 31m 2. What will Equaliser's percentage change be? -49% 3. What will Purge's PTA be for the Weekend? $950 Part 😄 There will be 6 films to place and points are expanded because traditionally people haven't scored well here: 3. Spy who Dumped 5. Darkest Minds 6. EQ2 7. HT3 10. Teen Titans 12. Skyscraper

Ah, sorry, I’d hoped to contribute something, but I’m stuck on the road without a real computer for at least 3 more days. 😕

Wk25 Sure, why not? Aka Yes

Argh! I’m on the road and got my timezone math wrong.

Nice. I still have a better than 0% chance of going 15/15. All I need is for Skyscraper to hold on and pass Book Club (not certain, but probable), Spy Who Dumped Me to not overachieve (better than 50/50), and for The Meg to beat expectations and pass Book Club (pretty unlikely, but possible). I'm guessing I've got a 1 in 10 shot of getting there, which is nice because by this point I'm usually solidly at a 0% chance of hitting that mark. Realistically, I think the first two will happen, but The Meg will probably fall well short and Book Club will sneak into the #15 spot.

1. Equalizer (1.7) vs Mamma Mia (1.4) 10,000 2. Hotel Transylvania 3 (2.4) vs Oceans 8 (1.6) 3. Mission Impossible 6 (3.5) vs Ant Man (1.3) 4. Uncle Drew (2.1) vs Hereditary (1.6) 10,000 5. The Meg (5.0) 10,000 vs Sicario 2 (1.3) 6. Skyscraper (1.2) vs Book Club (3.7) Gah. Um. I'll come back to this.

1. Will MI6 Open to more than $65M? 1000 YES 2. Will MI6 Open to more than $72.5M? 2000 NO 3. Will Teen Titans Open to more than $12.5M? 3000 YES 4. Will Teen Titans Open to more than $17.5M? 4000 NO 5. Will the 2 films combined PTA be higher than $22,000? 5000 NO 6. Will Equalizer stay above Mamma Mia? 1000 NO 7. How many of last weeks new releases will finish above Teen Titans? 2000 2 8. Will Hotel Transylvania drop less than 42%? 3000 NO 9. Will Sicario stay above Ocean's 8? 4000 NO 10. Will Jurassic class be closer to Incredibles or Skyscraper (in dollars) with its 3 day total? 5000 I2 11. Will Ant Man's PTA stay above $2,700? 1000 YES 12. Will Purge drop more than 53%? 2000 YES 13. Will Blindspotting enter the top 8? 3000 NO 14. Will Unfriended stay above Sorry to Bother you? 4000 YES 15. Will Tom Cruise jump off the moon in this latest MI entry? 5000 At this point, I don't think he'd bother with something that trivial. Bonus: 9/15 5000 10/15 8000 11/15 12,000 12/15 16,000 13/15 20,000 14/15 24,000 15/15 30,000 Part B: The top 3 predictions will score points as follows: Closest: Within 1% - 15,000, Within 2,5% - 12000, Within 5% 9,000, Within 10% - 6000 Outside 10% - 3000 points 2nd Closest: Within 1% - 12,000, Within 2,5% - 10000, Within 5% 7,000, Within 10% - 4000 Outside 10% - 2000 points 3rd Closest: Within 1% - 10,000, Within 2,5% - 8000, Within 5% 5,000, Within 10% - 2000 Outside 10% - 1000 points 1. What will Mission Impossible make for its 3 day? 67M 2. What will Unfriended's percentage change be? -64% 3. What will Mamma Mia's PTA be for the Weekend? 5,000 Part 😄 There will be 6 films to place and points are expanded because traditionally people haven't scored well here: 2. Mama Mia 4. Teen Titans 7. I2 9. Skyscraper 11. Unfriended 13. O8