Wrath

1. Will Spiderverse Open to more than $25M? 1000 YES 2. Will Spiderverse Open to more than $35M? 2000 NO 3. Will Spiderverse Open to more than $30M? 3000 YES 4. Will Mortal Engines open to more than $12M? 4000 YES 5. Will Mortal Engines open to more than $16M? 5000 NO 6. Will The Mule more than $13M? 1000 YES 7. Will The Mule more than $18M? 2000 NO 8. Will SPiderverse make more than the two best new entries combined? 3000 YES 9. Will Deadpool make more for its 3 day than the Favorite? 4000 YES 10. Will Vox Lux enter the top 10? 5000 NO 11. Will the top three films all be new entries? 1000 YES 12. Will Fantastic Beasts stay above Bohemian Rhapsody? 2000 NO 13. Will Creed have a PTA above $2000 3000 YES 14. Will Grinch have a better percentage drop than Green Book? 4000 NO 15. Will this be the moment Sony finally releases the superspy Aunt May character into their Spiderverse? 5000 She's *always* been a superspy! That you didn't already know this shows just how good she is. Bonus: 9/15 5000 10/15 8000 11/15 12,000 12/15 16,000 13/15 20,000 14/15 24,000 15/15 30,000 Part B: The top 3 predictions will score points as follows: Closest: Within 1% - 15,000, Within 2,5% - 12000, Within 5% 9,000, Within 10% - 6000 Outside 10% - 3000 points 2nd Closest: Within 1% - 12,000, Within 2,5% - 10000, Within 5% 7,000, Within 10% - 4000 Outside 10% - 2000 points 3rd Closest: Within 1% - 10,000, Within 2,5% - 8000, Within 5% 5,000, Within 10% - 2000 Outside 10% - 1000 points 1. What will Spiderverse make for its 3 day? 31.5M 2. What will be the difference in gross between Mule and Mortal Engines? 2M 3. What will Deadpool make on Saturday? Part 😄 There will be 6 films to place and points are expanded because traditionally people haven't scored well here: 2. Mortal Engines 4. Grinch 6. Creed 2 8. Fantastic Beasts 2 10. Green Book 12. Vox Lux

WK7 - YE.... Hah. No.

Yeah, I think so. BobDole loses his/her backup and JJ-8’s backup (A Dog’s Way Home) becomes an actual.

Marwen’s tone is off. Also, its too dark for feeel good holiday fare.

Smallest down to biggest. I mean, if its a pyramid, the biggest part goes on the bottom, right? 1. 12 Days of Deadpool 2. $80M 3. Into the Spiderverse domestic total 4. Bumblebee's China total

1. Will Schindler's List Open to more than $2M? 1000 YES 2. Will Schindler's List Open to more than $4M? 2000 NO 3. Will Schindler's List Open to more than $3M? 3000 NO 4. Will Ralph make more than $15M? 4000 YES 5. Will Swimming with Men open to more than 225k? 5000 NO 6. Will Creed 2 make more than $10M? 1000 YES 7. Will any of the top 5 finish in a different position to last weekend? 2000 YES 8. Will Robin Hood stay above Green Book? 3000 NO 9. Will any film in the top 10 drop more than 62%? 4000 NO 10. Will Bohemian Rhapsody stay above $2000 PTA? 5000 YES 11. Will Bohemian Rhapsody overtake Crazy Rich Asians' Domestic total? 1000 YES 12. Will Instant Family increase more than 140% on Friday? 2000 YES 13. Will Hannah Grace increase more than 45% on Saturday? 3000 NO 14. How many films in the top 10 will not drop a place from their position last weekend? 4000 7 15. Will anything ever be released in cinemas ever again? 5000 Of course. I understand lots of popcorn will be set free this weekend. Bonus: 9/15 5000 10/15 8000 11/15 12,000 12/15 16,000 13/15 20,000 14/15 24,000 15/15 30,000 Part B: The top 3 predictions will score points as follows: Closest: Within 1% - 15,000, Within 2,5% - 12000, Within 5% 9,000, Within 10% - 6000 Outside 10% - 3000 points 2nd Closest: Within 1% - 12,000, Within 2,5% - 10000, Within 5% 7,000, Within 10% - 4000 Outside 10% - 2000 points 3rd Closest: Within 1% - 10,000, Within 2,5% - 8000, Within 5% 5,000, Within 10% - 2000 Outside 10% - 1000 points 1. What will Schindler's List make for its 3 day? 2.6M 2. What will Robin Hood's percentage change be? -44% 3. What will Green Book's PTA be for the Weekend? 2,200 Part 😄 There will be 6 films to place and points are expanded because traditionally people haven't scored well here: 3. Creed II 5. Bohemian Rhapsody 7. Green Book 9. Widows 11. Schindler's List 13. Star is Born

Well, that stung. Wk6 - No

Wait, did John Carter come out this year? Edit - That having been said, what WAS the budget on A Wrinkle in Time? Because if it was up around $250M, its not on par with Pluto Nash, but its at least getting into the neighborhood. John Carter at least did tolerably OS.

WW Total Tracking Call a film’s gross to within 10 million to get 50,000 bonus points Call a film’s gross to within 25 million to get 40,000 bonus points Call a film’s gross to within 50 million to get 30,000 bonus points Call a film’s gross to within 75 million to get 20,000 bonus points Call a film’s gross to within 100 million to get 10,000 bonus points Call a film’s gross to within 150 million to get 5000 bonus points Call a film’s gross to within 200 million to get no bonus points Call a film’s gross to within 200.01-250 million lose 10,000 points and lose 1,000 points for every subsequent 25M you are away. * Denotes a backup film for the user As before, please check the numbers to see if I've made any mistakes. Amusingly, I am the only person to not guess Bohemian Rhapsody or Grinch would be the top 12. I'm not sure what I was thinking, I probably just forgot about them for this list somehow. So, no one else should feel at all bad about their lists. Bohemian Rhapsody (16/17) Current Gross: 846M Nutcracker (4/17 + 4 backups) Current Gross: 174M Grinch (16/17) Current Gross: 509M Fantastic Beasts (17/17) Current Gross: 653M Widows (3/17 + 1 backup) Current Gross: 76M Creed 2 (4/17 + 5 backups) Current Gross: 202M Ralph 2 (17/17) Current Gross: 495M Mortal Engines (9/17) Current Gross: 82M The Mule (0/17 + 1 backup) Current Gross: 136M Spideyverse (16/17) Current Gross: 353M Aquaman (17/17) Current Gross: 1,121M Bumblebee (17/17) Current Gross: 458M Mary F-ing Poppins (17/17) Current Gross: 336M Holmes & Watson (2/17 + 2 backups) Current Gross: 40M Vice (1/17) Current Gross: 55M The Upside (1/17) Current Gross: 96M Glass (16/17) Current Gross: 223M Lego Movie 2 (15/17 +1 backup) Current Gross: 57M Alita: Battle angel (7/17 + 2 backups) Current Gross: 36M How to Train Your Dragon 3 (9/17) Current Gross: 86M

Opening Weekend Predictions Call a film’s gross to within 1 million to get 30,000 bonus points Call a film’s gross to within 2.5 million to get 25,000 bonus points Call a film’s gross to within 5 million to get 20,000 bonus points Call a film’s gross to within 10 million to get 15,000 bonus points Call a film’s gross to within 15 million to get 10,000 bonus points Call a film’s gross to within 20 million to get 5,000 bonus points Call a film’s gross to within 30 million to get no bonus points Miss the gross by more than 30M and lose 10,000 points (You will lose these points even if the film doesn’t make the top 7 OW.) *Denotes Backup Remember that bonus points for closest only count if the OW is in top 7. Also, please check your numbers and let me know if I've made a mistake. Bohemian Rhapsody (8/17 + 6 backups) Open: 51.1M Grinch (17/17) Open: 67.6M Fantastic Beasts (17/17) Open: 62.2M Ralph 2 (15/17 + 1 backups) Open: 56.2M Aquaman (15/17 + 1 backups) Open: 67.9 (finally, no longer an estimate) Bumblebee (0/17 + 1 backups) Open: 21.6M Mary F-ing Poppins (12/17 + 2 backups) Open: 23.5M The Upside (0/17 + 1 backups) Open: 20.4M Glass (14/17 + 1 backups) Open: 40.3M Lego 2 (15/17) Open: 34.1M How to Train Your Dragon 3 (5/17 + 4 backups) Open:

1. Will Hannah Grace Open to more than $2.5M? 1000 YES 2. Will Hannah Grace Open to more than $5.25M? 2000 NO 3. Will Hannah Grace Open to more than $3.75M? 3000 NO 4. Will Ralph make more than $30M? 4000 YES 5. Will Will Hannah Grace make more than 40% of its OW on Friday? 5000 YES 6. Will Creed 2 make more than $20M? 1000 NO 7. Will Will Creed and Ralph combine for more than $47.5M? 2000 YES 8. Will Robin Hood stay above Green Book? 3000 YES 9. Will Fantastic Beasts and Grinch combined make more than Creed? 4000 YES 10. On what day will Instant Family pass Nutcracker's total (Fri, Sat, Sun, or None - If it does it early everyone wins)? 5000 None 11. Will Head full of Honey make more than 50k PTA? 1000 NO 12. Will Robin Hood have a bigger percentage drop than Overlord? 2000 YES 13. Will A star is born increase more than 200% on Friday? 3000 NO 14. Will Widows drop more than 37% on Sunday? 4000 YES 15. How about this weekend? Will Robin Hood finally have its moment? 5000 Um, how to put this as gently as possible... No, it will not. Bonus: 9/15 5000 10/15 8000 11/15 12,000 12/15 16,000 13/15 20,000 14/15 24,000 15/15 30,000 Part B: The top 3 predictions will score points as follows: Closest: Within 1% - 15,000, Within 2,5% - 12000, Within 5% 9,000, Within 10% - 6000 Outside 10% - 3000 points 2nd Closest: Within 1% - 12,000, Within 2,5% - 10000, Within 5% 7,000, Within 10% - 4000 Outside 10% - 2000 points 3rd Closest: Within 1% - 10,000, Within 2,5% - 8000, Within 5% 5,000, Within 10% - 2000 Outside 10% - 1000 points 1. What will Hannah Grace make for its 3 day? 3M 2. What will Grinch's percentage change be? -39% 3. What will Head full of Honey's PTA be for the Weekend? 12,500 Part 😄 There will be 6 films to place and points are expanded because traditionally people haven't scored well here: 2. Creed 2 4. Fantastic Beasts 6. Instant Family 8. Robin Hood 10. Hannah Grace 12. Star is Born

Oh, I love this one. Ok, I'm back. Glass - Full (10) Bumblebee - Full (8) Spiderverse - Full (6) Alita - Full (4) Dog's Way Home - Full (2)

Wk5 - yes

I'll do my best to keep this updated as the game goes on, but no promises. Actually, I'm revising this. I'm not going to do colors at all. I'm just going to note where the current total is roughly once/week on each list. Please check your numbers over and let me know if I've made any mistakes. Domestic Total Tracking If less than 10 players successfully predict a film to finish in the top 15, those players will score a 50,000 point bonus. If less than 5 players successfully predict a film to finish in the top 15, those players will score a 75,000 point bonus. If 1 solitary player successfully predicts a film to finish in the top 15, that players will score a 150,000 point bonus. Call a film’s gross to within 2 million to get 30,000 bonus points Call a film’s gross to within 5 million to get 25,000 bonus points Call a film’s gross to within 10 million to get 20,000 bonus points Call a film’s gross to within 20 million to get 15,000 bonus points Call a film’s gross to within 30 million to get 10,000 bonus points Call a film’s gross to within 40 million to get 5000 bonus points Call a film’s gross to within 50 million to get no bonus points Call a film’s gross to within 50.01-80 million lose 10,000 points and lose 1,000 points for every subsequent 10M you are away. * Denotes a backup film for the user Bohemian Rhapsody (17/18) Current Gross: 211M Nutcracker (8/18 + 1 backup) Current Gross: 55M Grinch (18/18) Current Gross: 271M Overlord (0/18 + 1 backup) Current Gross: 22M Fantastic Beasts (18/18) Current Gross: 159M Widows (11/18 + 1 backup) Current Gross: 42M Instant Family (1/18 + 2 backups) Current Gross: 67M Green Book (6/18 + 1 backup) Current Gross: 62M Creed 2 (18/18) Current Gross: 116M Ralph 2 (18/18) Current Gross: 198M Mortal Engines (10/18 + 1 backup) Current Gross: 16M The Mule (12/18) Current Gross: 103M Spidey-verse (18/18) Current Gross: 180M Aquaman (18/18) Current Gross: 329M Bumblebee (18/18) Current Gross: 126M Marwen (0/18 + 1 backup) Current Gross: 11M Mary F-ing Poppins (18/18) Current Gross: 170M Holmes & Watson (8/18 + 3 backups) Current Gross: 31M Vice (5/18 + 2 backups) Current Gross: 45M Dog's Way Home (1/18) Current Gross: 39M The Upside (1/18) Current Gross: 87M Glass (17/18) Current Gross: 99M Lego 2 (18/18) Current Gross: 38M What Men Want (0/18 + 1 backup) Current Gross: 21M Cold Pursuit (1/18) Current Gross: 13M Alita: Battle Angel (5/18) Current Gross: How to Train Your Dragon 3 (1/18 + 1 backup) Current Gross:

1. Will Ralph Open to more than $45M? 1000 YES 2. Will Ralph Open to more than $55M? 2000 NO 3. Will Ralph Open to more than $50M? 3000 NO 4. Will Ralph make more than 2.4x its Wednesday and Thursday for its 3 Day weekend? 4000 NO 5. Will Ralph Increase on Saturday? 5000 YES 6. Will Creed Open to more than $30M? 1000 YES 7. Will Robin Hood Open to more than $10M? 2000 NO 8. Will Creed open in the top 2? 3000 YES 9. Will Creed and Robin Hoods combined 5 day totals be higher than Ralph's 3 Day total? 4000 YES 10. Will Robin Hood make more on Wednesday or Sunday? 5000 Wed 11. Will Green Book make more than $5M? 1000 YES 12. Will Dragon Tattoo drop more than 60%? 2000 YES 13. Will Overlord stay in the top 12? 3000 YES 14. Will Instant Family stay above Widows? 4000 YES 15. Will Grinch drop less than 15%? 5000 NO 16. Will fantastic beasts drop more than 45% on Sunday? 1000 YES 17. Will Nutcracker have a PTA above $1000? 2000 YES 18. Will A Star is Born be closer to Grinch or Venom's domestic total by the end of Sunday? 3000 Grinch 19. Will any non new opener or major expander increase on Saturday? 4000 Yes. Dunno which, but something probably will. 20. Will Robin Hood? Or won't it? 5000 No, its an adjective, not a verb. Robin *is* a hood. Bonus: 12/20 3000 13/20 5000 14/20 8000 15/20 12000 16/20 16,000 17/20 20,000 18/20 26,000 19/20 32,000 20/20 40,000 Part B: The top 3 predictions will score points as follows: Closest: Within 1% - 15,000, Within 2,5% - 12000, Within 5% 9,000, Within 10% - 6000 Outside 10% - 3000 points 2nd Closest: Within 1% - 12,000, Within 2,5% - 10000, Within 5% 7,000, Within 10% - 4000 Outside 10% - 2000 points 3rd Closest: Within 1% - 10,000, Within 2,5% - 8000, Within 5% 5,000, Within 10% - 2000 Outside 10% - 1000 points 1. What will Ralph make for its 3 day OW? 48M 2. What will Robin Hood's Wed + Thurs be as a percentage of its 3 day? 70% 3. What will Overlord's PTA be for the 3 day weekend? $850 Part 😄 There will be 6 films to place and points are expanded because traditionally people haven't scored well here: 2. Creed 2 3. FB2 5. Bohemian Rhapsody 7. Widows 10. Nutcracker 12. Overlord

1. Creed 2 - $113M - Too Low 2. Robin Hood - $28M - Too Low 3. Possession of Hannah Grace - $5M - Too Low 4. Mortal Engines - $55M - Too High 5. The Mule - $80M - Too Low 6. Bumblebee - $100M - Too Low 7. Second Act - $40M - Too High 8. Vice - $65M - Too High 9. Escape Room - $32M - Too Low 10. The Upside - $39M - Too Low PART B: 1. Which film will be the lowest grossing except Hannah Grace? Second Act 2. Which film will be the highest grossing without making more than $100M? Vice 3. Will exactly four films make the Domestic top 15? Yes 4. Will any film double its predicted gross? No 5. Will any film fail to reach half of its predicted gross? No 6. Will the actual combined total gross for the films be higher or lower than the predicted total gross? Higher 7. Percentage wise, what will be boxoffice.com's best prediction? Vice 8. Percentage wise, what will be boxoffice.com's worst prediction? The Possession of Hannah Grace 9. How many of these films will open in the number 1 position? One 10. Will 4 or more of these films open in 5th or lower? Yes

Pretty early, still.

Wk4 - yes Woof. Week 3 was unexpectedly close.

Hah, yeah, I totally forgot about that, and I think your ranges are very much on the mark. Its the weirdest thing, my kids have zero interest in seeing the Grinch and are barely even aware it exists.

That week 3 QotW is, I think, going to work out well for us, but its going to be a lot closer than expected.

It also helps a lot that Obama and Bush get along very well and seem to genuinely like each other. Obama still has a lot of goodwill in the US, so when he (and, arguably even more importantly, Michelle) says Bush is a good guy, a lot of Americans are like "Well, he was a pretty bad President, but since he's apparently a good guy my opinion is improved." It also helps that Trump is viewed as a bad President (by many, though not all) and a bad person (by more than think he's a bad President), so Bush being a good, if incompetent, person looks less bad by comparison. It occurs to me that this is kinda off-topic, so maybe we should discuss box office.

Well, the thing is he proved the pollsters wrong in the US 2016 (albeit only BARELY), some folks think that crap is true. The 2018 US mid-term elections were nailed almost exactly by the pollsters, so hopefully we’ll see less of that in the future.

Really? Bush is still hated worse than Trump? Long memories.

Sure, I had Beasts as #1, but I only had it at 68. Even here, it might be #1 if Aquaman doesn’t improve since Ralph is a Wed open, iirc. I was expecting a ton of crappy openings, which is why I was irked by Bohemian cruising to 52. 52 was solidly in my top 7.

Um... are you ok?