MikeQ

Thank you @Rthanos! How happy I am right now: Peace, Mike

It is because we haven't had any real early numbers or continual updates to discuss. We didn't even get any early Thursday preview numbers from Deadline until Friday morning, and our gods have forsaken us this weekend. Dear @Rthanos, why has thou forsaken us on the biggest weekend of the summer? ❤️ An offering: Peace, Mike

Yes, I think it will make it. Peace, Mike

Black Panther already looks to be getting a boost. Made $44,000 on Friday (+156% Friday increase; +18% from last Friday). Peace, Mike

Finding Dory did have huge weekday numbers in its first week. Incredibles 2 will be more frontloaded in terms of its internal multiplier this weekend, and I think likely for its drop next weekend (thanks largely to the huge previews which will likely make for a bigger Friday-to-Friday drop). But its overall legs, and particularly late legs, could be quite strong with great WOM, what seems to be a very entertaining and rewatchable film, summer weekdays, labor day weekend boost into September, etc. Again, I wouldn't be surprised if Incredibles 2 is, overall, more frontloaded than your typical Pixar film, but it isn't a sure thing at this point. I'm sure each and every day this week, with each day's new number, there will be conversations rehashing out the debate (Just poking fun... glad we're all passionate enough about box office to have these conversations.) Peace, Mike

$71.6M opening day is incredible - more than the original film made in its entire first weekend. This also represents an exceptional $53.1M True Friday, a top 10 opening day. Best Opening True Fridays (i.e. Opening Friday sans Thursday Previews) Avengers: Infinity War — 67.3 million Jurassic World — 63.5 million Star Wars: The Force Awakens — 62.1 million Marvel's The Avengers — 62.1 million Star Wars: The Last Jedi — 59.7 million Avengers: Age of Ultron — 56.8 million Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice — 53.9 million Iron Man 3 — 53.3 million Incredibles 2 — 53.1 million Furious 7 — 51.6 million Black Panther — 50.7 million Captain America: Civil War — 50.5 million Spider-Man 3 — 49.8 million The Dark Knight — 48.7 million Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 — 47.6 million Peace, Mike

It's hard to say, though. It is certainly possible Incredibles 2 is more frontloaded than your typical Pixar film in terms of legs (I wouldn't be surprised). Incredibles 2's opening weekend will be inflated somewhat by Father's Day Sunday and its huge preview gross. So, you may very well be right. And yet Pixar's previous films that were their highest grossing openers, Toy Story 3 (second largest animated opening weekend of all-time when it opened) and Finding Dory (current record holder of largest animated opening weekend of all-time) had strong 3.76 and 3.60 multipliers, respectively. And those were both follow ups to much adored originals/franchises after many years. Dory was the record holder for animated preview gross (with a large $9.2M, before Incredibles 2's giant $18.5M usurped it), so it was clearly anticipated as well. And Dory, in particular, faced a $100M+ opening animated film as competition in its fourth weekend. Time will tell... will be fun to follow the run. Peace, Mike

Hasn't happened since Pixar's earlier days, when Toy Story 2 (1999), Monsters Inc. (2001), Finding Nemo (2003), and The Incredibles (2004) all got A+, four in a row for Pixar. Peace, Mike

I think Incredibles 2 and Jurassic World 2 will be able to co-exist next weekend. We're entering height of the summer where most schools will be off or soon off, and I think it's possible for an animated film and action film to co-exist, even if the animated film is also action oriented. If Incredibles 2 opens to $170M, then a 47-50% drop next weekend (Dory and Toy Story 3 each dropped 46% in their second weekend) takes it to $85-90M next weekend. I'm stilling pegging Jurassic World 2 at $130-150M. It looks to be selling well (in top 5 at MovieTickets despite dominance of Incredibles 2) and anecdotally I've seen a lot of interest from friends and family in a way that suggests general audience interest, from my experience. Peace, Mike

Assuming a $69M Friday gross, this is what I will project for Incredibles 2 for now: THU: 18.5M FRI: 50.5M SAT: 51M (+1%) SUN: 44M (-14%) ---- TOTAL: 164M Dory and Toy Story 3 both opened on the same weekend and stayed flat on Saturday compared to their True Friday, so those seem like the only good comparisons I have to draw from in projecting Incredibles 2. I expect the Sunday drop to be strong due to Father's Day. It could be stronger than I am projecting. I hope I'm wrong and it does even better, but this in itself would represent an INSANE opening weekend, besting the previous animated film record (Dory's $135M) by about $30 million AND besting Shrek 2's adjusted animated film record ($161.9M). Also, all this is assuming $69M for Friday. Hopefully the Friday gross goes higher through the night. Please come entertain us, @Rthanos! Peace, Mike

I understand that, but Finding Dory is not an animated film that benefits from Father's Day. The kinds of films that benefit from Father's Day Sunday historically are those that are more likely to attract male audiences (male-centred or action oriented, etc). Toy Story 3, for example, opened on Father's Day weekend and only dropped 13.5% on the Sunday. I expect a drop around there for Incredibles 2 on the Sunday, not a 24% drop like Finding Dory. Peace, Mike

I don't expect it to follow Dory on Sunday, as Father's Day will make for a great Sunday hold. Peace, Mike

A $69M Friday for Incredibles 2 would mean a $50.5M True Friday gross, up there with the best of all-time. Best Opening True Fridays (i.e. Opening Friday sans Thursday Previews) Avengers: Infinity War — 67.3 million Jurassic World — 63.5 million Star Wars: The Force Awakens — 62.1 million Marvel's The Avengers — 62.1 million Star Wars: The Last Jedi — 59.7 million Avengers: Age of Ultron — 56.8 million Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice — 53.9 million Iron Man 3 — 53.3 million Furious 7 — 51.6 million Black Panther — 50.7 million Incredibles 2 — 50.5 million Captain America: Civil War — 50.5 million Spider-Man 3 — 49.8 million The Dark Knight — 48.7 million Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 — 47.6 million Peace, Mike

You gotta get in the spirit, man. These are huge preview numbers, and a record setting opening weekend for an animated film is on the way. This and next weekend will be the big one-two punch of the summer. Enjoy the massive numbers while you can. Peace, Mike

Incredible. By far the largest preview gross for an animated film. Large enough to fall on my best preview grosses of all-time list. The same preview gross as The Dark Knight and Jurassic World. Estimated Top Midnight/Preview Grosses of All-Time Rank / Title / Gross / Share of Opening Day Star Wars: The Force Awakens — 57.0 million (47.9%) Star Wars: The Last Jedi — 45.0 million (43.0%) Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 — 43.5 million (47.7%) Avengers: Infinity War — 39.0 million (36.7%) The Dark Knight Rises — 30.6 million (40.4%) The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2 — 30.4 million (42.7%) The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1 — 30.25 million (42.2%) The Twilight Saga: Eclipse — 30.1 million (43.9%) Rogue One: A Star Wars Story — 29.0 million (40.8%) Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice — 27.7 million (34.0%) Avengers: Age of Ultron — 27.6 million (32.7%) The Twilight Saga: New Moon — 26.27 million (36.1%) The Hunger Games: Catching Fire — 25.26 million (35.6%) Black Panther — 25.2 million (33.2%) Captain America: Civil War — 25 million (33.1%) Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1 — 24 million (38.9%) Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince — 22.8 million (39.2%) Suicide Squad — 20.5 million (31.6%) The Hunger Games — 19.735 million (29.3%) Marvel's The Avengers — 18.7 million (23.1%) Deadpool 2 — 18.6 million (35.1%) Incredibles 2 — 18.5 million (TBD) The Dark Knight — 18.5 million (27.5%) Jurassic World — 18.5 million (22.6%) Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 — 17 million (30.2%) The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1 — 17 million (30.8%) Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith — 16.9 million (33.8%) Transformers : Revenge of the Fallen — 16.8 million (27.1%) Beauty and the Beast — 16.3 million (25.5%) The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2 — 16 million (35.1%) Peace, Mike

Honestly, it’s about time a weekend thread was started, so I hope the mods keep this open or start their own official one right now. The biggest film of the summer is opening - there should have been a weekend thread starting last night. For those interested: A poster with access to data posted his or her thoughts on where previews were looking for Incredibles 2 last night. They had said $13-15+ million. Peace, Mike

I'm a big fan of the original, but the one aspect I'm not a big fan of is actually the villain. The Loony Fan trope is overdone and not that compelling, for me personally. I'm less interested in Syndrome and much more interested in the family and their dynamic. I'm hoping to see more of the family dynamic in the sequel (this weekend, hopefully, I will catch it). Peace, Mike

The Incredibles 2 is proving to be another critically acclaimed film for Pixar, and aside from the Toy Story trilogy, its highest rated sequel. As Pixar's 20th film, Pixar now has 14 of 20 films at 90+% on RT, 18 of 20 Certified Fresh, and 19 of 20 Fresh (with the lone Rotten film being Cars 2). That is impressive. With its appeal and critical acclaim, if the film hits the high end of tracking for its opening weekend ($140M), then I think $500M+ is looking possible for Incredibles 2. Would be the new highest grossing animated film of all-time, for both opening weekend and total domestic gross. Will be fun to follow how it does this weekend and beyond! Pixar Movie RT Scores and Multipliers 90%+ RT Score Class Toy Story — 100% (9.0 rating) — 6.58 (using 3-day), 4.91 (using 5-day) Toy Story 2 — 100% (8.6 rating) — 4.28 (using first wide weekend) Toy Story 3 — 99% (8.9 rating) — 3.76 Finding Nemo — 99% (8.7 rating) — 4.83 Inside Out — 98% (8.9 rating) — 3.94 Up — 98% (8.7 rating) — 4.30 Coco — 97% (8.3 rating) — 4.13 (using 3-day), 2.88 (using 5-day) The Incredibles — 97% (8.3 rating) — 3.71 Wall-E — 96% (8.6 rating) — 3.55 Ratatouille — 96% (8.5 rating) — 4.39 Monsters, Inc — 96% (8.0 rating) — 4.09 The Incredibles 2 — 94% (8.0 rating) — TBD Finding Dory — 94% (7.6 rating) — 3.60 A Bug’s Life — 92% (7.9 rating) — 4.89 (using 3-day wide weekend), 3.56 (using 5-day wide) The ‘Other’ Pixar Movies Brave — 78% (7.0 rating) — 3.58 Monsters University — 79% (6.8 rating) — 3.26 The Good Dinosaur — 76% (6.5 rating) — 3.14 (using 3-day), 2.22 (using 5-day) Cars — 74% (6.9 rating) — 4.06 Cars 3 — 68% (6.0 rating) — 2.85 Cars 2 — 39% (5.5 rating) — 2.89 Peace, Mike

MT: Incredibles 2: 63.7% Ocean's 8: 8.2% Solo: A Star Wars Story: 3.5% Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom: 3.3% Hereditary: 3.1% Peace, Mike

Using the Wayback Machine, on the Thursday before its release, Finding Dory was at 63% at 15:30 (PDT? EDT?). Right now it is 10:15 EDT (7:15 PDT) and Incredibles 2 is at 60.6%. Not that comparisons are all that relevant, however, since MT only tells us the percentage of tickets sold (a relative measure) rather than number of tickets sold. MT: Incredibles 2: 60.6% Ocean’s 8: 9.8% Solo: A Star Wars Story: 3.7% Hereditary: 3.5% Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom: 3.3% Peace, Mike

Nearly at the 50% mark on MT: The Incredibles 2: 49.5% Ocean's 8: 12.4% Hereditary: 4.9% Solo: A Star Wars Story: 4.9% Deadpool 2: 4.4% Peace, Mike

MT: The Incredibles 2: 46.9% Ocean's 8: 13.3% Solo: A Star Wars Story: 5.3% Hereditary: 5.2% Deadpool 2: 4.8% Peace, Mike

MT: Ocean's 8: 27% The Incredibles 2: 15% Solo: 12.1% Deadpool 2: 9.2% Hereditary: 8.7% Peace, Mike

MT: Ocean's 8: 29.1% Solo: 13.1% The Incredibles 2: 9.9% Deadpool 2: 9.8% Hereditary: 9.5% Peace, Mike

Updated Summer RT Watch: Hereditary becomes the first summer film with an 8+ rating. Its 94% and 8.5 rating will be tough to beat. Curious to see what other films this summer will crack an 8+ rating (if any... summer 2016 had only one film do so). 2018 Summer Films RT Watch (Wide-Release — May/June/July/August) 1. Hereditary — 94% — 8.5 rating 2. Tully — 87% — 7.7 rating 3. Upgrade — 86% — 7.1 rating 4. Deadpool 2 — 83% — 7.0 rating 5. Solo: A Star Wars Story — 71% — 6.4 rating 6. Ocean’s 8 — 69% — 6.3 rating 7. Adrift — 69% — 6.2 rating 8. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom — 62% — 6.2 rating 9. Hotel Artemis — 58% — 5.9 rating 10. Bad Samaritan — 53% — 5.7 rating 11. Book Club — 54% — 5.3 rating 12. Life of the Party — 38% — 5.0 rating 13. Overboard — 28% — 4.3 rating 14. Breaking In — 25% — 4.2 rating 15. Action Point — 17% — 3.5 rating 16. Show Dogs — 17% — 3.1 rating 2017 — 42 wide-release films * 18 fresh, 24 rotten * 80% or higher: 14 films * 8.0+ rating: 4 films (Dunkirk, The Big Sick, War for the Planet of the Apes, Baby Driver) 2016 — 42 wide-release films * 20 fresh, 22 rotten * 80% or higher: 9 films * 8.0+ rating: 1 film (Kubo and the Two Strings) Peace, Mike