MikeQ

Great new trailer. Looking forward to this! Peace, Mike

Best 5th Weekends for Live Action Comic Book Movies Title (Year) — Fifth Weekend Gross (Drop from Fourth Weekend) 1. Black Panther (2018) — 26.7 million (-34.7%) 2. Marvel’s The Avengers (2012) — 20.5 million (-44.2%) 3. Guardians of the Galaxy (2014) — 17.1 million (-0.7%)^ 4. Avengers: Infinity War (2018) — 16.5 million (-44.0%)* 5. The Dark Knight (2008) — 16.4 million (-37.3%) 6. Wonder Woman (2017) — 15.7 million (-36.9%) 7. Spider-Man (2002) — 14.3 million (-49.8%) 8. Iron Man (2008) — 13.5 million (-33.8%) 9. Avengers: Age of Ultron (2015) — 11.4 million (-47.4%) 10. Batman (1989) — 11.2 million (-26.1%) 11. The Dark Knight Rises (2012) — 11.0 million (-42.0%) 12. Deadpool (2016) — 10.9 million (-34.6%) 13. Suicide Squad (2016) — 9.9 million (-19.1%)^ 14. Thor: Ragnarok (2017) — 9.9 million (-41.4%) 15. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (2017) — 9.8 million (-52.9%) *Memorial Day Weekend ^Labour Day Weekend (Canada/U.S.) Peace, Mike

With estimates, Deadpool 2 had a weaker second weekend drop (-66%) heading into a holiday weekend, than the original Deadpool (-57.4%) which was heading into a regular weekend from a holiday weekend opening. Of course, sequels are typically inevitably more frontloaded, but this does seem on the weak end for Deadpool 2. It still remains to be seen how its long term legs will pan out. It could ride some good drops in the weekends to come, and Deadpool 2 will benefit from summer weekdays, unlike the original. Overall, it is clearly doing really well worldwide (already almost $500M worldwide), relative to budget, and will be a definite success - particularly when it wasn't clear if they could pull off the 'Deadpool style' of film a second time around. Best 2nd Weekends for Live Action Comic Book Movies Title (Year) — 2nd Weekend Gross (Drop from Opening Weekend) 1. Avengers: Infinity War — 114.8 million (-55.5%) 2. Black Panther (2018) — 111.7 million (-44.7%) 3. Marvel’s The Avengers (2012) — 103.1 million (-50.3%) 4. Avengers: Age of Ultron (2015) — 77.7 million (-59.4%) 5. The Dark Knight (2008) — 75.2 million (-52.5%) 6. Captain America: Civil War (2016) — 72.6 million (-59.5%) 7. Iron Man 3 (2013) — 72.5 million (-58.4%) 8. Spider-Man (2002) — 71.4 million (-37.8%) 9. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (2017) — 65.3 million (-55.5%) 10. The Dark Knight Rises (2012) — 62.1 million (-61.4%) 11. Wonder Woman (2017) — 58.5 million (-43.3%) 12. Spider-Man 3 (2007) — 58.2 million (-61.5%) 13. Thor: Ragnarok (2017) — 57.1 million (-53.5%) 14. Deadpool (2016) — 56.5 million (-57.4%) 15. Iron Man 2 (2010) — 52.0 million (-59.4%) 16. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice (2016) — 51.3 million (-69.1%) 17. Iron Man (2008) — 51.2 million (-48.1%) 18. Spider-Man 2 (2004) — 45.2 million (-48.7%)* 19. Spider-Man: Homecoming (2017) — 44.2 million (-62.2%) 20. Suicide Squad (2016) — 43.5 million (-67.4%) 21. Doctor Strange (2016) — 43.0 million (-49.5%) 22. Deadpool 2 (2018) — 42.7 million (-66.0%)*** 23. Guardians of the Galaxy (2014) — 42.1 million (-55.3%) 24. Man of Steel (2013) — 41.3 million (-64.6%)** 25. Captain America: The Winter Soldier (2014) — 41.3 million (-56.6%) 26. Justice League (2017) — 41.1 million (56.2%)^ 27. X2: X-Men United (2003) — 40.0 million (-53.2%) *Opened on a Wednesday **Opened on Father’s Day Weekend *** Second weekend was Memorial Day weekend ^ Second weekend was Thanksgiving weekend Peace, Mike

Deadpool will be at ~$220M after this long weekend, and then even if it drops 60% the following weekend, it will be at ~$250 million by the end of that weekend. And then even with crappy late legs, it would still comfortably walk past $260M, particularly with summer weekdays coming up. $260M is a done deal, I think. Peace, Mike

Doing my summer RT tracking again, just for fun. Here we are so far: 2018 Summer Films RT Watch (Wide-Release — May/June/July/August) 1. Tully — 87% — 7.7 rating 2. Deadpool 2 — 82% — 7.0 rating 3. Solo: A Star Wars Story — 71% — 6.4 rating 4. Book Club — 57% — 5.5 rating 5. Bad Samaritan — 53% — 5.7 rating 6. Life of the Party — 38% — 5.0 rating 7. Overboard — 28% — 4.3 rating 8. Breaking In — 25% — 4.2 rating 9. Show Dogs — 18% — 3.0 rating Last two summers for comparison: 2017 — 42 wide-release films 18 fresh, 24 rotten 80% or higher: 14 films 8.0+ rating: 4 films (Dunkirk, The Big Sick, War for the Planet of the Apes, Baby Driver) 2016 — 42 wide-release films 20 fresh, 22 rotten 80% or higher: 9 films 8.0+ rating: 1 film (Kubo and the Two Strings) Peace, Mike

If Rth's $37-40M range proves to be where the Friday number falls, then I will prematurely toot my own horn in having projected $35-40M based on the preview gross and surmised it wouldn't be quite as frontloaded as Rogue One. I was way off on Deadpool last week, so I gotta do it when I can A $37-40M Friday means that preview grosses represent 35.2-38.1% of opening day - still more frontloaded than your typical film, but it would be the smallest share of opening day from previews of the Disney Star Wars films. Peace, Mike

With $14.1M in previews, I'm thinking $35-40M total for the Friday gross. $35M would represent the same share of opening day from previews as Rogue One, but I suspect it may not be quite as frontloaded as Rogue One, given the film and the smaller previews. But who knows. I'm unsure of whether it will be as frontloaded as your typical Star Wars film, or not. And Memorial Day weekend makes it that much more difficult for me to project ahead. Peace, Mike

Thanks @Water Bottle. I PM'd you for clarification before I order. Peace, Mike

'Tis about time I give a little something to the forums. If I order a certain quantity of the monthly rate, does that give me "X" amount of months of that account type in a row? Or would it be accidentally tripling my monthly rate, for example, if I ordered "3" of an account in the quantity field? I'm a little confused because of how it displays the price once I choose the quantity and add to cart. Thanks. Peace, Mike

Rogue One seems like the best comparison, as the only other Star Wars "spinoff" movie to which we can compare Solo. Rogue One felt more akin to your typical Star Wars movie (the main franchise) than Solo does (from my perspective, at least), so my guess/expectation is that Solo will not be as frontloaded as Rogue One. It is also opening with far less in preview grosses, too, suggesting perhaps it won't be as frontloaded. Thus, my guess would be that the percentage of opening day from previews will be lower - but how much lower? If I'm wrong and it essentially follows Rogue One (~40% of opening day from previews), then Solo is looking at a ~$32-37M total Friday gross. But right now I'm pegging that as the minimum. If previews instead make up say ~35% of the opening day gross, then Solo is looking at ~$37-43M opening day. Then the rest depends on how the long weekend pans out. But I'm just thinking out loud. Watch me be totally wrong and the film is pretty frontloaded. I'm not confident in pegging how it will pan out. We'll find out! For comparison - preview gross (and share of opening day from previews in brackets): Solo: A Star Wars Story — 13.0 to 15.0 million (TBD%) Rogue One: A Star Wars Story — 29.0 million (40.8%) Other films in the $13-15M preview gross area for comparison: Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith — 16.9 million (33.8%) Transformers : Revenge of the Fallen — 16.8 million (27.1%) Beauty and the Beast — 16.3 million (25.5%) The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2 — 16 million (35.1%) Furious 7 — 15.8 million (23.4%) Iron Man 3 — 15.6 million (22.7%) Spider-Man: Homecoming — 15.4 million (30.5%) Thor: Ragnarok — 14.5 million (31.0%) Transformers: Dark of the Moon — 13.5 million (35.8%) The Hobbit: Un Unexpected Journey — 13 million (35.0%) Deadpool — 12.7 million (26.8%) Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix — 12 million (27.1%) Peace, Mike

It does seem as if Black Panther is going to miss out on $700M, as it is losing half of its remaining theatres this weekend. Unless it gets some kind of boost in June (but how/why? It is already out on DVD), I don't know how it reaches $700M otherwise? Peace, Mike

$12.7M for Deadpool 2 would be higher than Deadpool's first Tuesday of $11.55M. But obviously the first Deadpool opened in February (vs May) and had an inflated holiday Monday preceding the Tuesday. So a comparison perhaps isn't that useful. Peace, Mike

Asgard 2, from the Monday thread: Peace, Mike

I'm legit confused by the reaction to Infinity War's Monday number. $2.8M is only a 39.5% Monday-to-Monday drop, its best so far in the run and its first sub-40% drop for any day. And the drop from Sunday is only 70%, compared to 75.8% and 77.4% in the last two weeks. Peace, Mike

Oops! Thank you for pointing that out. I had added Infinity War to my all-time list (all films), but had neglected to add it to the CBM list. Peace, Mike

Infinity War captures the third best fourth weekend of all-time for a comic book film, behind only fellow MCU films Black Panther and The Avengers. It continues to be a monster film, at over $1.8 BILLION worldwide already. Behemoth numbers. Looking at the list, I'm reminded of just how exceptionally good the legs were for Black Panther, Spider-Man, and Wonder Woman. Best 4th Weekends for Live Action Comic Book Movies Title (Year) — Fourth Weekend Gross (Drop from Third Weekend) 1. Black Panther (2018) — 40.8 million (-38.4%) 2. Marvel’s The Avengers (2012) — 36.7 million (-34.1%)* 3. Avengers: Infinity War (2018) — 28.7 million (-53.8%) 4. Spider-Man (2002) — 28.5 million (-36.7%)* 5. The Dark Knight (2008) — 26.1 million (-38.8%) 6. Wonder Woman (2017) — 24.9 million (-39.6%) 7. Avengers: Age of Ultron (2015) — 21.7 million (-44.2%)* 8. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (2017) — 20.9 million (-39.7%)* 9. Iron Man (2008) — 20.4 million (-35.8%)* 10. Iron Man 3 (2013) — 19.3 million (-46.0%)* 11. The Dark Knight Rises (2012) — 19.0 million (-46.9%) 12. Guardians of the Galaxy (2014) — 17.2 million (-31.5%) 13. Thor: Ragnarok (2017) — 16.9 million (22.2%)** 14. Deadpool (2016) — 16.7 million (-46.2%) 15. Iron Man 2 (2010) — 16.5 million (-37.6%)* 16. Captain America: The Winter Soldier (2014) — 16.2 million (-36.6%) 17. Captain America: Civil War (2016) — 15.4 million (-53.3%)* 18. Batman (1989) — 15.1 million (-21.5%) 19. Spider-Man 2 (2004) — 15.0 million (-39.4%) 20. Spider-Man 3 (2007) — 14.3 million (-50.6%)* *Memorial Day Weekend **Thanksgiving Weekend (U.S.) Peace, Mike

Strong preview gross for Deadpool 2, which made for a relatively large share of opening day and opening weekend from previews for the film. This could be indicative of the kind of audience that is interested in seeing Deadpool - all those who know Deadpool-style humour is up their alley will want to see the film right away, and those who aren't as enamoured by it will wait or not see the film. Will be interesting to see how its legs unfold. Its opening weekend gross makes for another non-MCU film in the top CBM openings of all-time. Preview Grosses for Some Comic Book Films and the Share of Opening Day Title / Preview Gross / Share of Opening Day Avengers: Infinity War (2018) — 39.0 million (36.7%) The Dark Knight Rises (2012) — 30.6 million (40.4%) Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice (2016) — 27.7 million (34.0%) Avengers: Age of Ultron (2015) — 27.6 million (32.7%) Black Panther (2018) — 25.2 million (33.2%) Captain America: Civil War (2016) — 25 million (33.1%) Suicide Squad (2016) — 20.5 million (31.6%) Marvel's The Avengers (2012) — 18.7 million (23.1%) Deadpool 2 (2018) — 18.6 million (34.9%) The Dark Knight (2008) — 18.5 million (27.5%) Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (2017) — 17 million (30.2%) Iron Man 3 (2013) — 15.6 million (22.7%) Spider-Man: Homecoming (2017) — 15.4 million (30.5%) Thor: Ragnarok (2017) — 14.5 million (31.0%) Deadpool (2016) — 12.7 million (26.8%) Guardians of the Galaxy (2014) — 11.2 million (29.6%) Wonder Woman (2017) — 11 million (28.3%) Captain America: The Winter Soldier (2014) — 10.2 million (27.6%) Doctor Strange (2016) — 9.4 million (28.8%) Best Opening Weekends for Comic Book Films & Share from Previews Title / Opening Weekend Gross / Share of Opening Weekend from Previews/Midnights 1. Avengers: Infinity War (2018) — 257.7 million (15.1%) 2. Marvel’s The Avengers (2012) — 207.4 million (9.0%) 3. Black Panther (2018) — 202.0 million (12.5%) 4. Avengers: Age of Ultron (2015) — 191.3 million (14.4%) 5. Captain America: Civil War (2016) — 179.1 million (14.0%) 6. Iron Man 3 (2013) — 174.1 million (9.0%) 7. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice (2016) — 166.0 million (16.7%) 8. The Dark Knight Rises (2012) — 160.9 million (19.0%) 9. The Dark Knight (2008) — 158.4 million (11.7%) 10. Spider-Man 3 (2007) — 151.1 million (6.6%) 11. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (2017) — 146.5 million (11.6%) 12. Suicide Squad (2016) — 133.7 million (15.3%) 13. Deadpool (2016) — 132.4 million (9.6%) 14. Iron Man 2 (2010) — 128.1 million (5.9%) 15. Deadpool 2 (2018) — 125.0 million (14.9%) 16. Thor: Ragnarok (2017) — 121.0 million (12.0%) 17. Spider-Man: Homecoming (2017) — 117.0 million (13.2%) 18. Man of Steel (2013) — 116.6 million (7.7%) 19. Spider-Man (2002) — 114.8 million (6.1%) 20. Wonder Woman (2017) — 103.1 million (10.7%) 21. X-Men: The Last Stand (2006) — 102.8 million (5.7%) 22. Iron Man (2008) — 98.6 million (5.1%) 23. Captain America: The Winter Soldier (2014) — 95.0 million (10.7%) 24. Guardians of the Galaxy (2014) — 94.3 million (11.9%) 25. The Amazing Spider-Man 2 (2014) — 91.6 million (9.5%) Peace, Mike

A $125 million opening weekend (give or take) for Deadpool 2 is obviously a great opening weekend number, but when the preview gross came in at 18.6M, I definitely overestimated how walk-up up friendly the movie would be when projecting from the previews. In retrospect, it makes sense the second film wouldn’t be as walk up driven as the first was, as it now has more of a built in fan base and audiences likely know if they are a Deadpool-style humour kind of person or not. A $125-ish million opening is definitely nothing to sneeze at, especially for an R-rated film, and as an opening weekend gross that is probably on-par with the original film’s opening sans holiday boosts. But I can understand the disappointment if general expectations were that it would best the original. Now it’ll be fun to see how it’s legs pan out. And how Deadpool 2, Infinity War, and Solo all perform next weekend together Peace, Mike

Seems too low to me. $50-52M Friday would mean that previews are 35.8 - 37.2% of the opening day gross. I don't think that is likely based on historical data, and expect the projected gross to go up. But who knows with this film. For reference: Estimated Top Midnight/Preview Grosses of All-Time Rank / Title / Gross / Share of Opening Day Peace, Mike

I wouldn't be surprised if Book Club is riding a small wave of Jane Fonda star power, given the popularity of Grace and Frankie. The show has its contingent of young adult fans too (myself included). Book Club feels in the vein of Grace and Frankie. Peace, Mike

Excellent preview gross for Deadpool 2. With $18.6M in previews, I think it is looking at $60M+ total for Friday. Its weekend gross will top the original Deadpool and set a new record for highest R-rated opening. I think that is pretty terrific, given the first film had the advantage of both Valentine's Day and a Monday holiday (4-day weekend), and therefore increased on the Sunday. Peace, Mike

I can already tell this movie is going to destroy me. After Call Me By Your Name, I'm interested in basically any work he does. Also, both my older brothers struggled with drug addiction, and I have seen the impact it has on family. Looking forward to this. Peace, Mike

Using Deadpool's share of opening day from previews (which was 26.8%, $12.7M in previews), $15-18 million in previews for Deadpool 2 would make for a $56-67M total Friday gross. If closer to 30% share (which is around where 'Spider-Man: Homecoming' and 'Thor: Ragnarok' fell, with 15.4M and 14.5M in previews respectively), then we're looking at $50-60M total Friday gross or so. Of course, it's still really early. Peace, Mike

Identical third weekend drop for Infinity War compared to The Avengers. Terrific third weekend of $61.8M, second only to Black Panther, as far as comic book films go. Infinity War is already the third highest grossing comic book movie of all time domestically. Black Panther sits at $696.2M after this weekend. It is so close to being the first comic book movie to hit the $700M mark domestically. Basically, Marvel is killing it. Best 3rd Weekends for Live Action Comic Book Movies Title (Year) — Third Weekend Gross (Drop from Second Weekend) 1. Black Panther (2018) — 66.3 million (-40.6%) 2. Avengers: Infinity War (2018) — 61.8 million (-46.1%) 3. Marvel’s The Avengers (2012) — 55.6 million (-46.0%) 4. Spider-Man (2002) — 45.0 million (-36.9%) 5. The Dark Knight (2008) — 42.7 million (-43.2%) 6. Wonder Woman (2017) — 41.3 million (-29.5%) 7. Avengers: Age of Ultron (2015) — 38.9 million (-50.0%) 8. Iron Man 3 (2013) — 35.8 million (-50.7%) 9. The Dark Knight Rises (2012) — 35.7 million (-42.5%) 10. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (2017) — 34.7 million (-46.9%) 11. Captain America: Civil War (2016) — 32.9 million (-54.7%) 12. Iron Man (2008) — 31.8 million (-37.8%) 13. Deadpool (2016) — 31.1 million (-44.9%) 14. Spider-Man 3 (2007) — 29.0 million (-50.1%) 15. Iron Man 2 (2010) — 26.4 million (-49.3%) Highest Grossing Comic Book Films 1. Black Panther (2018) — 696.2 million^ 2. Marvel’s The Avengers (2012) — 623.4 million 3. Avengers: Infinity War (2018) — 547.8 million^ 4. The Dark Knight (2008) — 534.9 million 5. Avengers: Age of Ultron (2015) — 459.0 million 6. The Dark Knight Rises (2012) — 448.1 million 7. Wonder Woman (2017) — 412.6 million 8. Iron Man 3 (2013) — 409.0 million 9. Captain America: Civil War (2016) — 408.1 million 10. Spider-Man (2002) — 403.7 million 11. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (2017) — 389.8 million 12. Spider-Man 2 (2004) — 373.6 million 13. Deadpool (2016)— 363.1 million 14. Spider-Man 3 (2007) — 336.5 million 15. Spider-Man: Homecoming (2017) — 334.2 million 16. Guardians of the Galaxy (2014) — 333.2 million 17. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice (2016) — 330.4 million 18. Suicide Squad (2016) — 325.1 million 19. Iron Man (2008) — 318.4 million 20. Thor: Ragnarok (2017) — 315.1 million ^ Box office run not yet complete Peace, Mike

RTH liked the above post of mine. Peace, Mike