MikeQ

Using Deadpool's share of opening day from previews (which was 26.8%, $12.7M in previews), $15-18 million in previews for Deadpool 2 would make for a $56-67M total Friday gross. If closer to 30% share (which is around where 'Spider-Man: Homecoming' and 'Thor: Ragnarok' fell, with 15.4M and 14.5M in previews respectively), then we're looking at $50-60M total Friday gross or so. Of course, it's still really early. Peace, Mike

Identical third weekend drop for Infinity War compared to The Avengers. Terrific third weekend of $61.8M, second only to Black Panther, as far as comic book films go. Infinity War is already the third highest grossing comic book movie of all time domestically. Black Panther sits at $696.2M after this weekend. It is so close to being the first comic book movie to hit the $700M mark domestically. Basically, Marvel is killing it. Best 3rd Weekends for Live Action Comic Book Movies Title (Year) — Third Weekend Gross (Drop from Second Weekend) 1. Black Panther (2018) — 66.3 million (-40.6%) 2. Avengers: Infinity War (2018) — 61.8 million (-46.1%) 3. Marvel’s The Avengers (2012) — 55.6 million (-46.0%) 4. Spider-Man (2002) — 45.0 million (-36.9%) 5. The Dark Knight (2008) — 42.7 million (-43.2%) 6. Wonder Woman (2017) — 41.3 million (-29.5%) 7. Avengers: Age of Ultron (2015) — 38.9 million (-50.0%) 8. Iron Man 3 (2013) — 35.8 million (-50.7%) 9. The Dark Knight Rises (2012) — 35.7 million (-42.5%) 10. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (2017) — 34.7 million (-46.9%) 11. Captain America: Civil War (2016) — 32.9 million (-54.7%) 12. Iron Man (2008) — 31.8 million (-37.8%) 13. Deadpool (2016) — 31.1 million (-44.9%) 14. Spider-Man 3 (2007) — 29.0 million (-50.1%) 15. Iron Man 2 (2010) — 26.4 million (-49.3%) Highest Grossing Comic Book Films 1. Black Panther (2018) — 696.2 million^ 2. Marvel’s The Avengers (2012) — 623.4 million 3. Avengers: Infinity War (2018) — 547.8 million^ 4. The Dark Knight (2008) — 534.9 million 5. Avengers: Age of Ultron (2015) — 459.0 million 6. The Dark Knight Rises (2012) — 448.1 million 7. Wonder Woman (2017) — 412.6 million 8. Iron Man 3 (2013) — 409.0 million 9. Captain America: Civil War (2016) — 408.1 million 10. Spider-Man (2002) — 403.7 million 11. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (2017) — 389.8 million 12. Spider-Man 2 (2004) — 373.6 million 13. Deadpool (2016)— 363.1 million 14. Spider-Man 3 (2007) — 336.5 million 15. Spider-Man: Homecoming (2017) — 334.2 million 16. Guardians of the Galaxy (2014) — 333.2 million 17. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice (2016) — 330.4 million 18. Suicide Squad (2016) — 325.1 million 19. Iron Man (2008) — 318.4 million 20. Thor: Ragnarok (2017) — 315.1 million ^ Box office run not yet complete Peace, Mike

RTH liked the above post of mine. Peace, Mike

Fair enough. There is always a subjective element to interpreting box office statistics and such. I will also put it another way though. The overall weekend drop for the second weekend for huge and highly anticipated blockbuster films can disguise what are actually good drops Saturday-to-Saturday and Sunday-to-Sunday, because of the large preview grosses that inflate the opening weekend Friday. I mentioned this earlier in the week when I was discussing my predicted final multiplier range for Infinity War. Huge preview grosses often inevitably make for a larger second weekend drop because of the significant Friday-to-Friday drop. So, if we take a look at Infinity War's Fri-to-Fri, Sat-to-Sat, and Sun-to-Sun drops with estimates, we see: Fri: -70.4% Sat: -43.2% Sun: -50.3% (this could be sub-50% too with actuals, as the Sunday is merely the studios projection) The Fri-to-Fri drop skews the overall weekend drop, thanks to large previews and the new era of including preview grosses into the weekend gross. We see this with other big blockbusters too: Age of Ultron: FRI: -74.9%, SAT: -40.1%, SUN: -54.9% Civil War: FRI: -74%, SAT: -47.8%, SUN: -50.4% Compare these to blockbuster films that had smaller previews that consisted of a smaller share of their opening Friday gross (22-23% share as opposed to ~33% with the above films): The Avengers: FRI: -63.8%, SAT: -38.3%, SUN: -45.8% Jurassic World: Fri: -64.5%, SAT: -43.8%, SUN: -32.9% (Father's Day) It seems to me then that large preview grosses (for hugely anticipated films with large opening days as is) often inevitably lead to a larger second weekend drop. Infinity War made $106.3M in its opening day, the second largest opening day of all time, and of which 37% was from previews. That opening day is behind only The Force Awakens (a film which I think can only be understood as an outlier, given the franchise, the years of pent up nostalgia, the perfect December holiday calendar, etc). This is all to say that taken as a whole, I think Infinity War's second weekend gross (and drop) are good. Maybe they could have been better, but maybe not. This is the highly anticipated third film in a series we're talking about. But, honestly, what do I know. I pull out stats all the time, but it doesn't mean I'm right. Sometimes I'm a little too numbers focused. The beauty of box office is that there is gut, intuition, intangibles, etc, involved. Peace, Mike

Also, highest second weekend gross ever for a CBM, besting even Black Panther's godly second weekend gross/hold. Look at the Avengers series - holding the 1st, 3rd and 4th best second weekend grosses for comic book films. Look also at the gap between Avengers and Age of Ultron. Infinity War's second weekend gross is exceptionally good - only it, Black Panther, and Avengers have hit $100+M, and nothing else is even close. Perhaps the Black Panther phenomenon has made us think Infinity War's second weekend gross is no big deal. I think it's a pretty big deal. Best 2nd Weekends for Live Action Comic Book Movies Title (Year) — 2nd Weekend Gross (Drop from Opening Weekend) 1. Avengers: Infinity War (2018) — 112.5 million (-56.4%) 2. Black Panther (2018) — 111.7 million (-44.7%) 3. Marvel’s The Avengers (2012) — 103.1 million (-50.3%) 4. Avengers: Age of Ultron (2015) — 77.7 million (-59.4%) 5. The Dark Knight (2008) — 75.2 million (-52.5%) 6. Captain America: Civil War (2016) — 72.6 million (-59.5%) 7. Iron Man 3 (2013) — 72.5 million (-58.4%) 8. Spider-Man (2002) — 71.4 million (-37.8%) 9. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (2017) — 65.3 million (-55.5%) 10. The Dark Knight Rises (2012) — 62.1 million (-61.4%) 11. Wonder Woman (2017) — 58.5 million (-43.3%) 12. Spider-Man 3 (2007) — 58.2 million (-61.5%) 13. Thor: Ragnarok (2017) — 57.1 million (-53.5%) 14. Deadpool (2016) — 56.5 million (-57.4%) 15. Iron Man 2 (2010) — 52.0 million (-59.4%) Peace, Mike

I know there are some that are disappointed with Infinity War's second weekend gross, but I think it's second weekend drop is quite strong for the (highly anticipated) third film in a series coming off the largest opening weekend of all time in April/May. Could be an even slightly better drop with actuals. 2nd Weekend Drops for Films with $150+ million Opening Weekends 1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens: -39.8% (Christmas Holiday weekend /w no Christmas Eve) 2. Black Panther: -44.7% 3. Beauty and the Beast: -48.3% 4. Jurassic World: -49.0% (Father’s Day Sunday) 5. Marvel’s The Avengers: -50.3% 6. The Dark Knight: -52.5% 7. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire: -53.1% (U.S. Thanksgiving weekend) 8. Avengers: Infinity War: -56.4% 9. Iron Man 3: -58.4% 10. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story: -58.7% 11. Avengers: Age of Ultron: -59.4% 12. Captain America: Civil War: -59.5% 13. The Dark Knight Rises: -61.4% 14. Spider-Man 3: -61.5% 15. The Hunger Games: -61.6% 16. Star Wars: The Last Jedi: -67.5% (Christmas Eve fell on weekend) 17. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice: -69.1% 18. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2: -72.0% Peace, Mike

Sounds like Sunday is doing the heavy lifting, and so the weekend gross will be higher than estimated. Peace, Mike

Infinity War is doing gangbusters. I have run out of superlatives. I think a 3+ multiplier is always within the realm of possibility, but right now I peg Infinity War at a 2.7-2.8 multiplier (which is terrific for a sequel with the largest opening weekend of all-time with no Christmas holiday period to boost legs). This gives it about ~$700-720M total, only the 4th film ever to hit the the 700M milestone (after Black Panther hits it too). The Avengers hit a 3.0 multiplier opening during the same period (on May 4 2012, one weekend later in the calendar year), and like Infinity War, also had the largest opening weekend of all-time (at the time) and was very well received by both critics and the public. Infinity War currently has a 92% (4.6/5 rating) on RT and 9.0/10 on IMDB. In the same period after it's opening weekend, The Avengers had 96% (4.7/5 rating) on RT, and 8.8/10 on IMDB. Obviously this isn't the most reliable data, but it suggests both films were equally well received and making blockbuster numbers after they opened. The Avengers' share of opening day from previews was 23.1%, whereas Infinity War (as we see with anticipated blockbuster sequels) has a larger share of opening day from previews with 36.7%. The Friday-to-Friday drop next weekend could be more naturally frontloaded than The Avengers - we often see this happen with films with large previews that make up a larger share of opening day. For these reasons, I find it difficult right now to imagine Infinity War having as good legs as The Avengers. But, who knows - the beauty of the box office is that films get to come along and defy expectations. And it's Monday drop is so good. I'm ready to be wowed. Peace, Mike

Black Panther's Monday gross is a 32.8% drop from its Monday THREE WEEKS AGO. Peace, Mike

RTH's range of 68-71.5M for Sunday means a $257-260.5 million weekend. Incredible. I'm already thinking ahead to next year and the possibility that the Avengers series could break the all-time opening weekend record again... for the third time. For now, obviously, it has managed it twice in terrific fashion - The Avengers being the first film to make over $200M opening weekend, and now Infinity War the first film to break $250M. The Avengers series is making box office history as a franchise in itself, and it has me looking back at dominant franchises across the modern history of box office. If Avengers 4 breaks the record again next year, it will join other franchises that have also set the opening weekend record 3+ times: Star Wars (has set the 3-day opening weekend record 3 times) - Star Wars (1978 re-release) — 10.2 million (opening weekend record in a re-release! Obviously a different era of film, but still…) - Return of the Jedi (1983) — 23.0 million (a 60% increase from the previous record holder, Star Trek II: The Wrath of Khan - the largest percentage increase from the previous opening weekend record, looking back to 1975 at least) - The Force Awakens (2015) — 248.0 million Jurassic Park (has set the record 3 times) - Jurassic Park (1993) — 47.0 million - The Lost World: Jurassic Park (1997) — 72.1 million (a 36.6% increase from the previous record holder, Batman Forever) - Jurassic World (2015) — 208.8 million Batman (has set the record 4 times) - Batman (1989) — 40.5 million (an increase of 37.4% from the previous record holder, Ghostbusters II) - Batman Returns (1992) — 45.7 million (this and Jaws II are the only films in modern box office history to beat a record held by its predecessor — Avengers 4 could be the third) - Batman Forever (1995) — 52.8 million (first film to hit the 50M mark) - The Dark Knight (2008) — 158.4 million A couple things come to mind looking back. First, records are made to be broken, and franchises have a history of one upping each other on opening weekend. Superman II (1981) bested Star Trek’s (1979) record, followed by Star Trek II: The Wrath of Kahn (1982) wresting the opening weekend record back the following year. The year after, Return of the Jedi (1983) took the record with a whopping 60% increase. In the 90s, Batman Returns (1992) set a new record (besting its predecessor), followed by Jurassic Park in ’93; Batman Forever taking it back in ’95; and then again The Lost World taking it back in ’97. Star Trek, then, has taken the opening weekend record twice, as has Jaws (in the 70s) and Indiana Jones (in the 80s; Temple of Doom bested Return of the Jedi’s record and The Last Crusade later set a new record as well). The Spider-Man and Harry Potter franchises have each taken the record twice too. (Spider-Man may very well have set the record 3 times if Spider-Man 2 had not opened on a Wednesday.) Second, comic book/superhero films (or the big names at least) have been making box office history for decades in one way or another. Comic book films have certainly proliferated considerably more recently, but it suggests these movies aren’t going anywhere anytime soon. Peace, Mike

Absolutely incredible weekend for Infinity War. I mean, what can I say that hasn't already been said? Incredible record breaking True Friday, Saturday, Sunday, and record breaking weekend overall. It is a beast. My projection from earlier in the week that Infinity War would need to hit at least $37-38M in previews in order to break the opening weekend record (i.e. hit $248M) ended up being remarkably accurate from a "share-of-opening-weekend-from-previews" approach. And for such huge previews, Infinity War was less frontloaded than one would likely expect for such a mega-blockbuster sequel. Incredible weekend. Estimated Top Midnight/Preview Grosses of All-Time Rank / Title / Gross / Share of Opening Day 1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens — 57.0 million (47.9%) 2. Star Wars: The Last Jedi — 45.0 million (43.0%) 3. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 — 43.5 million (47.7%) 4. Avengers: Infinity War — 39.0 million (36.8%) 5. The Dark Knight Rises — 30.6 million (40.4%) 6. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2 — 30.4 million (42.7%) 7. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1 — 30.25 million (42.2%) 8. The Twilight Saga: Eclipse — 30.1 million (43.9%) 9. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story — 29.0 million (40.8%) 10. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice — 27.7 million (34.0%) 11. Avengers: Age of Ultron — 27.6 million (32.7%) 12. The Twilight Saga: New Moon — 26.27 million (36.1%) 13. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire — 25.26 million (35.6%) 14. Black Panther — 25.2 million (33.2%) 15. Captain America: Civil War — 25 million (33.1%) Top Opening Weekends of All-Time & Share from Previews Rank / Title / Opening Weekend Gross / Share of Opening Weekend from Previews/Midnights 1. Avengers: Infinity War — 250.0 million (15.6%) 2. Star Wars: The Force Awakens — 248.0 million (23.0%) 3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi — 220.0 million (20.5%) 4. Jurassic World — 208.8 million (8.9%) 5. Marvel’s The Avengers — 207.4 million (9.0%) 6. Black Panther — 202.0 million (12.5%) 7. Avengers: Age of Ultron — 191.3 million (14.4%) 8. Captain America: Civil War — 179.1 million (14.0%) 9. Beauty and the Beast — 174.8 million (9.3%) 10. Iron Man 3 — 174.1 million (9.0%) 11. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 — 169.2 million (25.7%) 12. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice — 166.0 million (16.7%) 13. The Dark Knight Rises — 160.9 million (19.0%) 14. The Dark Knight — 158.4 million (11.7%) 15. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire — 158.1 million (16.0%) Peace, Mike

How is Black Panther still managing to be in the top 5 on it's 11th weekend?? It just keeps on chugging. If it doesn't hit $700M, it will be close. A terrific run either way - it hit a 3.38 multiplier on Thursday. Peace, Mike

A $105M (rth) or $103M (Deadline) Friday for Infinity War would give it the best opening True Friday of all-time, with a $64-66M True Friday. Rth's previously mentioned $102M would put it just a smidgeon below Jurassic World. No matter how you slice it, terrific numbers for Infinity War after already burning $39M in demand in previews. Best Opening True Fridays (i.e. Opening Friday sans Thursday Previews) 1. Avengers: Infinity War — 64-66.0 million (?) 2. Jurassic World — 63.5 million 3. Star Wars: The Force Awakens — 62.1 million 4. Marvel's The Avengers — 62.1 million 5. Star Wars: The Last Jedi — 59.7 million 6. Avengers: Age of Ultron — 56.8 million 7. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice — 53.9 million 8. Iron Man 3 — 53.3 million 9. Furious 7 — 51.6 million 10. Black Panther — 50.7 million (Please correct me if I've gotten any of these wrong) Peace, Mike

Fair enough. Still seems really strong to me for the third film in a series, and a film in an interconnected universe that, for me, is less accessible because I've seen so few Marvel movies. It's not easy to hit $200M+. But point taken. Peace, Mike

If Infinity War nabs $225M+ this weekend, it will be the second best opening weekend of all time, behind only The Force Awakens which had huge previews and years of pent up nostalgia riding on its back. These are HUGE numbers, especially for the third film in the Avengers series, and the 19th film in the MCU. This is terrific for Infinity War, IMHO. I understand why some may be disappointed because they were hoping for a new record, but in retrospect, The Force Awakens had so much riding in its favour. I say all this, and we don't even know for sure how the weekend will play out. Watch it be relatively non-frontloaded, heh. Peace, Mike

Assuming $45M for Thursday previews is accurate, this is huge! Tied for second best of all time, behind only The Force Awakens which benefited from years of pent of nostalgia. My best guess of total Friday gross, assuming the 45M projection is accurate, is using The Dark Knight Rises' share of opening day from previews, which is the smallest among films with such huge previews (at 40.4%). This would give Infinity War a $111M opening day - 45M from previews, and a 66M true Friday - which if I'm not mistaken would be the largest opening true Friday ever. But it's just a guess! And based on early projections of Thursday previews that could change (up or down). Below are the top 15 preview grosses of all-time, and the share of their opening day from previews. However the weekend plays out, it's clear Infinity War is going to be huge. A potentially record breaking opening weekend here! Exciting! Estimated Top Midnight/Preview Grosses of All-Time Rank / Title / Gross / Share of Opening Day 1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens — 57.0 million (47.9%) 2. Avengers: Infinity War — 45.0 million (TBD) 3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi — 45.0 million (43.0%) 4. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 — 43.5 million (47.7%) 5. The Dark Knight Rises — 30.6 million (40.4%) 6. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2 — 30.4 million (42.7%) 7. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1 — 30.25 million (42.2%) 8. The Twilight Saga: Eclipse — 30.1 million (43.9%) 9. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story — 29.0 million (40.8%) 10. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice — 27.7 million (34.0%) 11. Avengers: Age of Ultron — 27.6 million (32.7%) 12. The Twilight Saga: New Moon — 26.27 million (36.1%) 13. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire — 25.26 million (35.6%) 14. Black Panther — 25.2 million (33.2%) 15. Captain America: Civil War — 25 million (33.1%) Peace, Mike

If that happens... just wow. I thought it was going to lose a lot of theatres this weekend, but somehow it held onto 1,650 theatres, and had the 2nd smallest percentage drop in theatres behind only A Quiet Place. Theatre counts on their equivalent weekends (11th weekend): The Force Awakens: 1,433 The Avengers: 747 Jurassic World: 574 The Last Jedi: 292 Peace, Mike

Black Panther began the week in 8th place and has jumped to 5th by Wednesday. If MovieMan's locked club actually comes true.... I don't think it will, but man, Black Panther is a beast. I guess we've never really had a situation like this before, with a huge film still around in the top 10 when the next film in the franchise is opening - and not just any film, but a culminating film like the 3rd Avengers. Peace, Mike

Does anyone know the earliest Deadline has posted Thursday preview projections/estimates for a blockbuster film? I recall 'Spider-Man: Homecoming' had an early projection (though inaccurate) from Deadline as early as 9:00-9:30pm EDT. Have they thrown out earlier numbers for huge films? When should we expect any numbers as food for fodder tonight? EDIT: Deadline first projected The Last Jedi's Thursday previews gross at after midnight EST (~9:30pm PST), and The Force Awakens' at ~9pm EST (6pm PST). Looks like it varies... Peace, Mike

Since on the topic of pre-sales and preview grosses, if we take a look at the top preview grosses of all time, there is a general (and perhaps obvious) trend that as the preview gross gets larger, the share of that gross of opening weekend is higher. It isn't a perfect one, of course. All of the films in the top 15 are sequels and/or part of franchise universes. I've highlighted the Marvel films in blue. Looking at Age of Ultron and Civil War, my guess would be that Infinity War would need at least $37-38 million in previews in order to pass The Force Awakens' opening weekend record (i.e. to hit $248M opening weekend). $37-38M in previews represents a share of 15% of an opening weekend gross of $248M. This seems like a logical minimum requirement to me, as I can't imagine that Infinity War's preview gross share will be less than Age of Ultron (14.4%) or Civil War (14.0%), given this is the third Avengers film (quasi-fourth film, if you include Civil War, which many seem to do...) and it is a highly anticipated film. But, as we can see, once we hit such high preview grosses, the share of opening weekend of those grosses seems to go up. It's not a very large sample to look at (and an argument can be made that Marvel films do tend to be less preview heavy and more general audience friendly), but films with $30+M in preview grosses tend to be in the 20+% range in terms of share of opening weekend. The lowest is The Dark Knight Rises' 19%. This is all to say is, it wouldn't be unusual to expect that Infinity War needs $40M previews (16.1% of record $248M opening weekend), or $45M previews (18.1% of $248M), etc. Right now I'm looking for that $37-38M minimum come Thursday/Friday when we starting hearing about its previews. And maybe I'm even wrong there - who knows! Marvel is Marvel. Will be a lot of fun to take a look at! Estimated Top Midnight/Preview Grosses of All-Time Rank / Title / Gross / Share of Opening Weekend 1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens — 57.0 million (23.0%) 2. Star Wars: The Last Jedi — 45.0 million (20.5%) 3. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 — 43.5 million (25.7%) 4. The Dark Knight Rises — 30.6 million (19.0%) 5. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2 — 30.4 million (21.5%) 6. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1 — 30.25 million (21.9%) 7. The Twilight Saga: Eclipse — 30.1 million (OPENED ON WED) 8. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story — 29.0 million (18.7%) 9. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice — 27.7 million (16.7%) 10. Avengers: Age of Ultron — 27.6 million (14.4%) 11. The Twilight Saga: New Moon — 26.27 million (18.4%) 12. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire — 25.26 million (16.0%) 13. Black Panther — 25.2 million (12.5%) 14. Captain America: Civil War — 25 million (14.0%) 15. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1 — 24 million (19.2%) Peace, Mike

That's what I was thinking as well. I'm assuming the theatre count loss for Black Panther next weekend will be one of its largest so far. Are double features confirmed, or just something that you are guessing will be the case? Peace, Mike

Only a 15.3% drop from last Friday. Looks likely to have the best weekend drop of its run. Peace, Mike

A Quiet Place is only down 36% from last Thursday, and is actually adding another 219 theatres this weekend. It looks to me like it will have another really strong weekend drop. Black Panther keeps adding more good money to its big pile of money - down only 11.5% from last Thursday. It will still be in 1,930 theatres this weekend, its 10th weekend. Its retention is incredible. This is more theatres in its 10th weekend than the behemoth 'The Force Awakens' (1,618 theatres), 'The Avengers' (1,125 theatres), 'Jurassic World' (738 theatres), and 'The Last Jedi' (351 theatres). Peace, Mike

Personally, I tend be drawn to and have greater respect for people (including celebrities) have who have well articulated opinions about social and political issues. It shows that they're engaged with the world around them. People who make an effort to do this, who care about others, who dedicate themselves to causes, etc, are attractive. I like to surround myself with people like this. Peace, Mike

"If I don't make it back... remember you're the one who made me come here." Haha, that was good - made for a line that I thought was going to be a cliché but then changed course. Movie looks like a bunch of good fun. I know I'll be checking this one out with the family, because the family can't resist this dinosaur action. Peace, Mike