MikeQ

A $12 million Friday, if it ends up being the case (and RTH has confirmed that is his projection, at least, through which posts he has liked), is definitely not a very good number, unfortunately. That will likely lead to a $41-42 million weekend, which is ~69% drop. It could be a somewhat higher weekend if the Friday number ends up somewhat above $12 million, but it doesn't seem likely to reach the $46-48 million I was expecting heading into the weekend. Peace, Mike

Yeah, Bourne has caught up now with it's first daily number over Star Trek Beyond since then. It's Thursday gross is only 43% down from last week. It looks headed to a weekend hold that may be much better than Beyond's equivalent weekend. Will be interesting to watch moving forward to see if Bourne will continue to out gross it or not. Peace, Mike

This is just not true, and others have already touched on this really well. The theatrical release is only one release window in the money-making journey that a studio film takes. The theatrical release is followed by airlines and PPV, video on demand, retail, television, and merchandising, etc. These are all important sources of income that help movies reach profitability, and can't be discounted. If you're going to talk about all of the different costs associated with making and releasing a film, you also need to include all of the ways in which studios make money off of those films. You use BvS as an example, but it is not indicative of your usual blockbuster. It was intended to be a launching point for a movie universe and a slew of blockbuster movies for years to come, and then was considered a failure in terms of critical and commercial reception, and so naturally the studio was scared and made some administrative/creative shakeups. Peace, Mike

The idea that ‘frontloading = bad WOM’ for Star Trek Beyond seems insufficient to me. We tend to assume with movies that poor legs (or frontloading) indicate bad WOM, and that good legs (or backloading) indicate good WOM, but there are also likely a host of factors that influence the extent to which a given film is frontloaded or backloaded. We all know many standard factors that are important. We frequently cite WOM and reviews as factors, but we know other factors are important too, such as the time of year in which the film is released; the kind of audience it targets; the extent to which it is marketed and saturated; etc. Here’s a thought experiment. Maybe Star Trek Beyond had a perfectly solid opening because it attracted all of the usual Trekkies for opening weekend and enticed some of the general audience with good reviews. Perhaps it has subsequently dropped hard because, overall, general audiences decided they just aren’t as totally interested in seeing a Star Trek movie anymore, and since the film faced stiff direct competition with both Jason Bourne and Suicide Squad opening the following weeks, more people opted out. It’s now the third movie in the rebooted Star Trek series, and I would suggest that sometimes in this case it’s not just about how good the movie is or actual word-of-mouth, but that some portions of the larger general audience just decided they weren’t interested this time around. Reviews for the movie were certainly solid and positive, but they weren’t out-of this-world, nor did they indicate the film is a “must-see” summer event. I would say this is often a factor in long running blockbuster film series that don’t have defined end points - sometimes an entity just isn’t as “fresh” anymore, and so it doesn’t attract general audiences in the same way it did the first (and even second) time around in the absence of reviews or WOM that indicate this is a “must-see” new entry. I'm sure we can all think of films where we thought "this looks good/decent" but for some reason or another we didn't check it out in theatres, because it didn't quite entice us enough, or there were other films opening around that time that targeted us and spoke to us more, or the film was another entry in a series and didn't have that same "must-see" excitement, or whatever. So, it could be a confluence of these sorts of factors that has left Star Trek Beyond in the position that it is. Peace, Mike

RT Watch: 'Nine Lives' is officially the worst reviewed film of the summer thus far. Can any of the movies opening in the last few weeks of the summer 'out do' it? Heh. I will update the list to add the three films opening this coming weekend once they have some more reviews. Florence Foster Jenkins is the one opener with a solid number of reviews already (with fifty reviews) and looks like it will be one of the best reviewed films of the summer. And it does look like all three openers (Florence, Pete's Dragon, and Sausage Party) will be fresh. Peace, Mike Summer Films RT Watch (Wide-Release — May/June/July/August) Finding Dory - 94% - 7.7 rating The Nice Guys - 91% - 7.6 rating Captain America: Civil War - 90% - 7.6 rating Star Trek Beyond - 84% - 6.9 rating The Conjuring 2 - 80% - 6.7 rating Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping - 77% - 6.7 rating The Shallows - 77% - 6.5 rating Lights Out - 76% - 6.3 rating Secret Life of Pets - 75% - 6.2 rating The BFG - 73% - 6.7 rating Ghostbusters - 73% - 6.5 rating The Infiltrator - 68% - 6.5 rating Central Intelligence - 68% - 5.7 rating Bad Moms - 63% - 5.7 rating Neighbours 2: Sorority Rising - 62% - 5.7 rating Me Before You - 59% - 5.6 rating Jason Bourne - 57% - 5.9 rating Money Monster - 57% - 5.9 rating Nerve - 57% - 5.6 rating The Purge: Election Year - 54% - 5.3 rating X-Men: Apocalypse - 48% - 5.7 rating Free State of Jones - 43% - 5.4 rating Angry Birds Movie - 43% - 4.9 rating Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates - 39% - 5.0 rating TMNT: Out of the Shadows - 38% - 4.7 rating The Legend of Tarzan - 35% - 5.0 rating Now You See Me 2 - 34% - 4.9 rating Independence Day: Resurgence - 32% - 4.4 rating Alice Through the Looking Glass - 30% - 4.6 rating Warcraft - 29% - 4.2 rating Suicide Squad - 26% - 4.7 rating Ice Age: Collision Course - 12% - 3.9 rating The Darkness - 5% - 2.5 rating Nine Lives - 5% - 1.9 rating

So, teen appeal + free Friday tickets + poor (mixed?) WOM = large Saturday drop? It's clearly a poor drop, but I don't think it is unreasonable for people to try to put it into context. It could be just flat out poor WOM that is driving this down quickly, or not. It will be interesting to see how the long term legs pan out. They could be just as bad as (or worse than) Batman v Superman, or maybe they will be better. Let's enjoy following it as a bunch o' box office nerds. Also, Suicide Squad can have a poor Saturday drop in terms of frontloading, AND still be an impressive overall weekend gross because it's doing $120-125+ million and beating the previous August record by about $30+ million. These are not mutually exclusive observations. Peace, Mike

It looks to me like Suicide Squad, though another big "miss" generally speaking, will have somewhat better WOM than Batman v Superman. It strikes me as a film that, while lacking structure and being a "mess", is more broadly entertaining. The 'A' grade for those under 18 doesn't surprise me - my 'Little Bro' who is under 18 told me over the phone tonight that the movie was 'amazing'. I think it also helps that Suicide Squad appears to have good appeal to both women and men. It will be interesting to see exactly where it goes after it's opening weekend. The general fears of DC running themselves into the ground seem somewhat exaggerated to me. While it may feel like (and truly be, depending who you talk to) such missed opportunities for Suicide Squad and BvS, and those can't be recovered in this current iteration of the DCEU, it is completely possible for DC to put this behind them and move forward. They haven't been lacking in the marketing department, and that's half the game in terms of ensuring wide exposure/interest and a huge opening. If they can pair that with a film that is more widely considered a great one that is a cohesive, story driven piece with a vision from the writer/director/team, they can make this work. Even if some people drift away, good final products moving forward can lead to strong reviews and WOM that will help audiences decide to reinvest. I'll be curious to see how 'Wonder Woman' fares, critically and commercially. Peace, Mike

It looks to me like Bourne will drop 60+% this weekend. And Trek will have another large drop in the 55% area. Peace, Mike

LOL Also, Variety: "Really, though, one would be hard-pressed to think of a contemporary movie form more torturous to sit through than the cutesy-wacky anthropomorphic celebrity-voiced pet comedy. The thing that's so excruitating about films like "Garfield: The Movie," "Cats & Dogs," "Beverly Hills Chihuahua," or the new "Nine Lives" is not that they're comedies about talking animals. It's that they're made by people laboring under the delusion that an animal who talks is in itself funny. News flash: it is not. It's funny only if you believe that the zaniest special-effects comedy of 1964 starring the voice of Shecky Green is funny." And THR: "In Barry Sonnenfeld's feline-themed Nine Lives, [Christopher Walken] humbles an arrogant businessman by turning him into a pussy (literally). Americans may wish they could pull a similar trick on a certain real-life (alleged) billionaire real-estate tycoon; the odds of that happening are only a little worse than those that they'll enjoy this dud." Peace, Mike

As much as I'd love it to only drop 55%, it does seem impossible when I break it down with generous drops/increases: Wed: $4.569 Thur: $4.11 (-10%) Fri: $7.19 (+75%) Sat: $9.70 (+35%) Sun: $7.27 (-25%) WEEKEND TOTAL: $24.16 million (-59.2% weekend drop) And those are pretty generous, no? I'm trying to figure out a way for it to reach $26.6 million, and I can't see it. Peace, Mike

Past second weekend Friday increases for all Bourne films that also opened around the same time (end of July/beginning of August): The Bourne Legacy: 74% The Bourne Ultimatum: 71.6% The Bourne Supremacy: 68.2% I think a 60%+ increase for Bourne is perfectly doable. That being said, it still looks to have a large overall second weekend drop regardless. Peace, Mike

If it's 200K above Trek's total gross by it's first Monday, then as Wrath calculated, Bourne nabbed about $6.5 million on Monday. If it's 200K above Trek's Monday gross only, then as picores calculated, Bourne nabbed about $6.45 million on Monday. Either way Nile meant it, it ends up being a similar gross on the Monday. About a 59-ish% drop either way. Peace, Mike

I can't speak for anyone else, but I've been enjoying tracking the summer films' critical reception for fun. I get to see where films fall overall; how the critical reception of certain films doesn't align with their performance & how the general public has enjoyed them; how "good" some films are relative to how poorly the summer has been in terms of critical reception - even if reviews don't really matter for our enjoyment of film. I've been enjoying it in the same way that we enjoy tracking films' box office grosses. Someone could easily also ask us all: "why do you guys even bother with box office?" Because we're nerds and like doing so. Peace, Mike

Finding Dory will end up being another strong film from Pixar in terms of multiplier/endurance. It sits with a 3.47 multiplier right now (with an estimated $469 million after this weekend). If it ends with a final domestic gross of $485-490 million, it will end with a 3.6 to 3.62 multiplier. This is another strong multiplier for Pixar's top-tier films, particularly since Finding Dory is a sequel and the largest opener Pixar has ever had (with a $135 million opening). Pixar Movie OW Multipliers 90%+ RT Score Class Finding Dory - 3.47 (Projected final multiplier: ~ 3.6) Inside Out - 3.94 Toy Story 3 - 3.76 Up - 4.30 Wall-E - 3.55 Ratatouille - 4.39 The Incredibles - 3.71 Finding Nemo - 4.83 Monsters, Inc - 4.09 Toy Story 2 - 4.28 (using first wide weekend) A Bug’s Life - 4.89 (using 3-day wide weekend), 3.56 (using 5-day wide) Toy Story - 6.58 (using 3-day), 4.91 (using 5-day) The ‘Other’ Pixar Movies The Good Dinosaur (76%) - 3.14 (using 3-day), 2.22 (using 5-day) Monsters University (78%) - 3.26 Brave (78%) - 3.58 Cars 2 (39%) - 2.89 Cars (74%) - 4.06 Peace, Mike

RT Watch update: Finding Dory, The Nice Guys, and Captain America remain the three best reviewed films of the summer by a good margin. Will another film before the summer ends be able to hit the 90%+ range, or hit a 7.0 rating or higher? Where will Suicide Squad end up? Will update again once Suicide Squad (and Nine Lives) reviews come in. Peace, Mike Summer Films RT Watch (Wide-Release — May/June/July/August) Finding Dory - 94% - 7.7 rating The Nice Guys - 91% - 7.6 rating Captain America: Civil War - 90% - 7.6 rating Star Trek Beyond - 83% - 6.9 rating The Conjuring 2 - 80% - 6.7 rating Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping - 77% - 6.7 rating The Shallows - 77% - 6.5 rating Lights Out - 76% - 6.3 rating Secret Life of Pets - 74% - 6.2 rating The BFG - 73% - 6.7 rating Ghostbusters - 73% - 6.4 rating The Infiltrator - 68% - 6.5 rating Central Intelligence - 68% - 5.7 rating Bad Moms - 63% - 5.8 rating Neighbours 2: Sorority Rising - 62% - 5.7 rating Me Before You - 59% - 5.6 rating Money Monster - 57% - 5.9 rating Jason Bourne - 56% - 5.8 rating Nerve - 56% - 5.6 rating The Purge: Election Year - 54% - 5.3 rating X-Men: Apocalypse - 48% - 5.7 rating Free State of Jones - 43% - 5.4 rating Angry Birds Movie - 43% - 4.9 rating Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates - 39% - 5.0 rating TMNT: Out of the Shadows - 38% - 4.7 rating The Legend of Tarzan - 36% - 5.1 rating Now You See Me 2 - 34% - 4.9 rating Independence Day: Resurgence - 32% - 4.4 rating Alice Through the Looking Glass - 30% - 4.6 rating Warcraft - 29% - 4.2 rating Ice Age: Collision Course - 12% - 3.9 rating The Darkness - 5% - 2.5 rating

The $110 million worldwide opening weekend for Bourne is great. With the reasonable $120 million budget, it's going to make some good money. I expect we'll be seeing another Bourne movie. Peace, Mike

This discussion started when I posted my thoughts on Star Trek Beyond and The Force Awakens in the weekend thread. Here is what I posted: Here's some of what I sent to grey, to add to the discussion: So, I will say for now that I don't disagree with grey that themes, such as good vs evil, are there and relevant -- just that they weren't particularly explored in depth. The Third Reich stuff isn't particularly clear to me, because I don't think it's particularly clear what is The First Order. This isn't to say that I think the film "lacks depth", period -- just that it lacks some thematic depth and social/political relevance, and so after watching the film, it didn't feel meaningful or rousing in a way that other sci-fi/fantasy films have been for me. And I genuinely think it's because, perhaps understandably, that Abrams seemed very focused on "not messing it up", on making a good, competent film, based on the nostalgia of the original trilogy, but that is lacking in originality and a deeper exploration of social or political ideas. There's a lot of great character work, particularly between Rey and Kylo Ren, that I do love, and some of the actors themselves (such as the charismatic John Boyega who creates a joyful Finn grappling with his place in the world) aid the film as well. Peace, Mike

I started writing a whole bunch, and then decided against so as to not derail the thread. I PM'd you, and am happy to continue conversing in the Force Awakens thread too. Peace, Mike

Hi DealWithIt, To awaken can mean to cause someone to become aware, to enlighten, to rouse/stir up a feeling. There are many films that have left me feeling awakened and enlightened, and some of those films have been fantasy/sci-fi films. Indeed, I think sci-fi films/stories are in a way uniquely positioned to do so because they can explore new, creative ideas in alternate universes from our own. Peace, Mike

Star Trek Beyond is a solid/competent/fun movie. The problem with it, and with the new Star Wars too, is that they're both uninspired and not particularly meaningful. These are supposed to be sci-fi epics that can use their respective universes to speak to and explore radical ideas (of inclusiveness, justice, ethical ways of being, etc) within the safety of their fantastical/futuristic worlds. On a superficial level they may nod to some of these ideas; however, they ultimately feel safe and timid and calculated, rather than truly exploring anything substantive, and thus fail to inspire. I didn't leave either movie feeling galvanized or awakened. IMO, of course. Peace, Mike

Not sure if this was posted (if it was, sorry): http://variety.com/2016/film/news/jason-bourne-box-office-matt-damon-bad-moms-1201826675/ “Jason Bourne” is heading for a $55 million opening weekend at the domestic box office while “Bad Moms” is generating as much as $35 million, early estimates showed Friday. Universal’s actioner is performing slightly above forecasts with an opening day taking in about $20 million at 4,026 sites, while STX’s “Bad Moms” will earn as much as $12 million on Friday at 3,215 locations. Lionsgate’s thriller “Nerve,” which opened Wednesday, will gross an estimated $3 million on Friday at 2,538 theaters for a weekend of up to $9 million and a five-day total of about $15 million. Peace, Mike

Another sampling of very positive versus very negative reviews for those interested: "Made with a palpable sense of urgency, this tense, propulsive motion picture is a model of what mainstream entertainment can be like when everything goes right." - LA Times "What could be a cash grab turns out to be the series' finest chapter, with the same piano-wire tension plus a narrative clarity lacking before." - Grade: A "Through it all, Damon keeps us glued to the war going on inside Bourne's head. It's a brilliantly implosive performance; he owns the role and the movie. It's a tense, twisty mindbender anchored by something no computer can generate: soul." - 3.5/4 stars "Despite regurgitating elements from the founding trilogy, Jason Bourne represents the best the series has yet offered." 3.5/4 stars - James Berardinelli ------- "It isn't just Bourne who's triumphantly returning. It's that hash of a style: the shaky-cam is back." 1/4 stars "Director Paul Greengrass tries to up the perambulatory drama with lots of cuts, swishes, jiggles, and wobbles from his camera and swellings from his soundtrack, but the energy just isn't there." - 0/5 stars "By the spectacular final chase scene, Jason Bourne goes into a sensory overload of loud noises, retina-torturing imagery and an incessantly wound-up score devoid of humanity, dimension or common sense." - 1.5/4 stars "The character motivations are weak, and the story is poorly structured. But its camera work, possibly intended to distract audiences from the movie’s flaws, only compounds its problems. It distances the audience and makes Jason Bourne a chore to sit through." Peace, Mike

It's almost as if they were real people. Of course It's just interesting, as people paid to critically evaluate films, (even if reviews are at their essence opinions), that there are such radically different evaluations of a film, particularly on the same specific criteria or elements of the film. There are always those reviewers that will be "outliers" so to speak, but I find it interesting with very mixed reviewed films such as this. Peace, Mike Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Jason Bourne looks to be the definition of getting "mixed" reviews. It is on the cusp of being "fresh", and has reviews that are very positive like this: Damon is terrific as the impressively skilled yet poignantly haunted Bourne. Jones is malevolence personified as Dewey. And Vikander lends a steely confidence to Lee. 3.5/4 stars Gripping from the outset, the most powerful thing about this tense action thriller is that it is intensely personal with a great sense of high stakes and risks Fast paced, engaging, inventive, intelligent and thrilling, Jason Bourne reminds us what a talented director Paul Greengrass is - and what a great script writer, too And then very negative reviews like this: This stale, redundant story goes round in the same tight circles, revealing one piddling new secret and containing one unconvincing change of character. 1.5/4 stars Simultaneously pretentious, mind-numbingly tedious, and dizzyingly incoherent from scene to scene, Jason Bourne is the definition of diminishing returns. It's the opposite of exciting. It's the visual equivalent of white noise, and if you're not careful, you might fall asleep. Sometimes it boggles my mind how reviewers can have such radically different opinions on a single film - as if they saw an entirely different movie. But that's the reality of opinions, heh. Like some others have mentioned in here, I was pretty much going to see this film regardless of reviews. I mean, maybe if it was like under 10% on RT, I'd skip it, but I'm too big of a Damon-as-Bourne fan to miss out. Peace, Mike

Thanks for sharing your thoughts antovolk. It's nice to hear your perspective on it. Peace, Mike