MikeQ

Thanks baumer! Peace, Mike

Civil War dropped -4.3% on the Tuesday after Victoria Day Monday and then -21.4% on Wednesday (previous Wednesday drops were -34.2% and -34.8%) Ultron dropped -12.1% on the Tuesday after Victoria Day Monday and then -22.9% on Wednesday (previous Wednesday drops were -27.5% and -28.3%) GOTG Vol. 2 just dropped -6% on the Tuesday after Victoria Day Monday. So similar to Ultron/Civil War (though totally anecdotal), I could see it dropping less than 30% into Wednesday. But I could be reading a trend into something that isn't one. Peace, Mike

I'm also rooting for this. I'm not at all invested in anyone who is involved with the film, but it has captured my attention from the first trailer for looking so new and interesting and visually stunning. It just looks like it could be a really absorbing piece of epic escapism. I think it would be fun if this ends up being a surprise summer blockbuster domestically. I hope it is critically well received and that it finds an audience. There is a universe where this could open to solid numbers due to the great trailers and ramped up buzz if critics give it a thumbs up, and then have really strong legs if it hits a sweet spot for audiences. I find myself hoping for this possibility. Peace, Mike

I think it's mostly just course correction. It dropped a mere 5.5% last weekend! Basically, the gross it obtained this weekend is around what we would expect if it had dropped the usual 25-30% last weekend (as it had done the three weekends prior) and then another 25-30% this weekend. Except it dropped harder this weekend to make up for it having stayed almost flat last weekend. It could have dropped somewhat better, perhaps, if 'Everything, Everything' hadn't opened and it hadn't lost another 400 theatres. Peace, Mike

It is definitely possible. But I also wonder, how much does Mother's Day really help comic book films like Guardians? Of other Marvel films that also had Mother's Day fall on the second weekend: Ultron dropped 33% on Mother's Day Sunday and then dropped 32.4% on the following Sunday. Iron Man 3 dropped 35.2% on Mother's Day Sunday and then dropped 29.8% on the following Sunday. Spider-Man 3 dropped 37.1% on Mother's Day Sunday and then dropped 30.0% on the following Sunday. Do we really have much evidence to suggest that Mother's Day significantly softens these kinds of films Sunday drops, given they all dropped similarly (or better) the Sunday after? Guardians dropped 23.7% and 25.1% its past two Sundays, so I wonder just how much of a stretch a 25.4% drop this Sunday really is? I'm just thinking out loud. I think you could be right, but I'm just not certain. It seems like a normal Sunday drop for Guardians at this point. I could see the actual Sunday drop being similar, if somewhat worse than estimated. Peace, Mike

MCU Sequels’ Third Weekends: Avengers: Age of Ultron — 38.9 million (-50.0%) Iron Man 3 — 35.8 million (-50.7%) Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 — 35.0 million (-46.3%) Captain America: Civil War — 32.9 million (-54.7%) Iron Man 2 — 26.4 million (-49.3%) Captain America: The Winter Soldier — 25.6 million (-38.0%) Thor: The Dark World — 14.2 million (-61.2%) In terms of third weekend grosses, GOTG Vol. 2 is ahead of Civil War, nearly on par with Iron Man 3, and only a few million behind Age Of Ultron, when those films opened to $32.6 million more, $27.6 million more, and $44.8 million more, respectively. The big question now is how well it can hold up next weekend against the new Pirates of the Caribbean and Baywatch. The latest tracking I can find has Pirates opening to $90+ million for the 4-day and Baywatch opening to $37-40 million in its 5-day debut (it opens on the Thursday). For the other MCU sequels whose fourth weekend also fell on Memorial Day weekend, they faced the following competition: Civil War faced openers X-Men Apocalypse ($79.8M) and Alice Through the Looking Glass ($33.5M) Ultron faced openers Tomorrowland ($42.7M) and Poltergeist ($26.3M) plus sizeable holdovers Pitch Perfect 2 ($38.9M) and Mad Max: Fury Road ($31.3M) Iron Man 3 faced Fast & Furious 6 ($117M), The Hangover Part 3 ($50.3M) and Epic ($42.8M), plus sizeable holdover Star Trek Into Darkness ($42.7M) Iron Man 2 faced Prince of Persia ($37.8M) and Sex and the City 2 ($36.8M) plus sizeable holdover Shrek Forever After ($57.1M) MCU Sequels’ Fourth Weekends: Memorial Day Weekends (3-day and 4-day grosses): Avengers: Age of Ultron — 21.7 million (-44.2%) AND 28.2 million (-27.4%) Iron Man 3 — 19.3 million (-46.0%) AND 24.7 million (-31.0%) Iron Man 2 — 16.5 million (-37.6%) AND 21.1 million (-20.0%) Captain America: Civil War — 15.4 million (-53.3%) AND 20.0 million (39.3%) Other: Captain America: The Winter Soldier — 16.2 million (-36.6%) *Normal April weekend Thor: The Dark World — 11.1 million (-21.9%) *Thanksgiving Holiday Weekend So, because of Pirates/Baywatch competition, will GOTG Vol. 2 drop as hard as Civil War next weekend? Or because of how well it has fared so far, will it drop more like Ultron/Iron Man 3 (or even Iron Man 2)? Iron Man 3 faced pretty strong competition in its right and dropped 46% for the 3-day. Perhaps GOTG Vol. 2 could drop similar to Iron Man with the strong competition (according to tracking)? I’m not sure at this point. I could see it holding surprisingly well or dropping like Civil War, given Pirates seems like strong direct competition. *shrug* Peace, Mike

It's definitely possible, but it doesn't seem likely to me. GOTG Vol. 2 seems to have a different weekend pattern when it comes to Sunday drops: Civil War: 1st SUN: -30.7% 2nd SUN: -34.1% 3rd SUN: -33.6% Ultron: 1st SUN: -11.0% (spillover?) 2nd SUN: -33.0% 3rd SUN: -32.4% GOTG Vol. 2: 1st SUN: -23.7% 2nd SUN: -25.1% 3rd SUN: -25.4% (estimated) This Monday is also a holiday in Canada, which could somewhat cushion the Sunday drop even if GOTG Vol. 2 were to ordinarily drop harder on the Sunday this weekend. But who knows - you could be right. A couple weekends of mid-20% drops doesn't necessarily mean it will drop as such this weekend. Peace, Mike

Alien: Covenant: FRI: $15.350 million SAT: $12.025 million (-21.7%) SUN: $8.625 million (-28.3%) ------------------------------ TOTAL: $36.0 million GOTG Vol. 2: FRI: $8.804 million SAT: $15.040 million (+70.8%) SUN: $11.218 million (-25.4%) ---------------------------- TOTAL: $35.062 million (-46.3% from last weekend) It's a close one between Alien and GOTG Vol.2, but I expect Alien to clearly win the weekend, unless it somehow has a much worse Sunday drop than estimated. Even if it slips from estimates, I think it still has enough leeway to win the weekend. This is the first weekend where Disney hasn't overestimated GOTG Vol. 2's Sunday drop, so I don't expect it to increase with actuals like it has the past two weekends. Peace, Mike

I wonder why you say this? GOTG Vol. 2 fell 55.5% in its second weekend, on par with the original GOTG (which dropped 55.3%), and which is the best second weekend drop for any MCU sequel. And we don't really know how it will be doing this weekend yet, as all we have to work on still are Deadline's insanely early Friday projections/stabs-in-the-dark. It seems too early to be saying that WOM or legs for GOTG Vol. 2 aren't strong - we don't really know yet. Peace, Mike

A 47% Wed-to-Wed drop for GOTG Vol 2. I'm foreseeing a sub-50% drop for it this weekend. Beauty and the Beast has hit $495 million. It is still looking like it could be over $498 million by the end of this weekend. Peace, Mike

I hadn't realized the trailer had hewn so closely (and clearly intentionally) to the original's trailer. Peace, Mike

Thanks and much appreciation to @EmpireCity for your insight and for sharing early numbers. It's a real shame that we are losing Empire and that we will no longer have access to pre-sale numbers. This, along with rth being rather absent lately, could mean we will no longer have early numbers moving forward. A significant loss for the forum. Peace, Mike

Beauty and the Beast is only down 10.6% from last Monday. If the rest of the week plays out strong like this, it could be at $495.5+ million by Thursday. And then even if it takes a harder hit this coming weekend (than usual - its last four weekends have been sub-30% drops) due to theatre loss and the inflated Mother's Day this past weekend and drops say 40-50%, it could be at about $498 million (or higher) by the end of this weekend. I could be misgauging if the Monday-to-Monday drop isn't indicative of the rest of the week, but nonetheless, Beauty is going to hit $500 million faster than I thought. Peace, Mike

Good question. The answer is no - of those top 25 films on the list I made, the following films also had Mother's Day on their second weekend: Avenger’s: Age of Ultron Iron Man 3 Spider-Man Spider-Man 3 Looking at them all, I'm not sure that Mother's Day really helped these films, or at least helped negligibly, in terms of their second weekend drops. Same with GOTG Vol. 2, I'm wondering how much Mother's Day really played a role. It's Sunday drop of 25% is in keeping with it's opening weekend Sunday drop of 24%. So again, I think it may have helped somewhat, but not to a significant extent. Father's day weekend definitely helps - of those films in the top 25 second weekends of all time, Jurassic World was helped considerably by Father's Day (dropping only 1.9% on Sunday). Of the other films in the top 25, The Force Awakens, Avatar, and Rogue One all had Christmas holiday weekends (though in the case of Rogue One, the box office dampening Christmas Eve fell on the Saturday, so it makes it more of a wash). And Shrek 2 benefited from it's second weekend being Memorial Day holiday weekend. Peace, Mike

GOTG Vol. 2 has the 14th best second weekend of all time. And as mentioned earlier by a poster, it has the best second weekend drop among all of the MCU sequels, if that means anything. MCU Sequels: Avengers: Age of Ultron — 77.7 million (-59.4%) Captain America: Civil War — 72.6 million (-59.5%) Iron Man 3 — 72.5 million (-58.4%) Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 — 65.3 million (-55.5%) Iron Man 2 — 52.0 million (-59.4%) Captain America: The Winter Soldier — 41.3 million (-56.6%) Thor: The Dark World — 36.6 million (-57.3%) Best Second Weekend Grosses of All-Time Title / Second Weekend Gross / Drop from Opening Weekend Star Wars: The Force Awakens — 149.2 million (-39.8%) Jurassic World — 106.6 million (-49.0%) Marvel’s The Avengers — 103.1 million (-50.3%) Beauty and the Beast — 90.4 million (-48.3%) Avengers: Age of Ultron — 77.7 million (-59.4%) Avatar - 75.6 million (-1.8%) The Dark Knight — 75.2 million (-52.5%) The Hunger Games: Catching Fire — 74.2 million (-53.1%) Finding Dory — 73.0 million (-46.0%) Captain America: Civil War — 72.6 million (-59.5%) Iron Man 3 — 72.5 million (-58.4%) Shrek 2 — 72.1 million (-33.2%) Spider-Man — 71.4 million (-37.8%) Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 — 65.3 million (-55.5%) American Sniper — 64.6 million (-27.6%) Rogue One: A Star Wars Story — 64.0 million (-58.7%) Alice in Wonderland — 62.7 million (-46.0%) Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest — 62.3 million (-54.0%) The Dark Knight Rises — 62.1 million (-61.4%) The Jungle Book — 61.5 million (-40.4%) Furious 7 — 59.6 million (-59.5%) Toy Story 3 — 59.3 million (-46.2%) The Hunger Games — 58.6 million (-61.6%) Spider-Man 3 — 58.2 million (-61.5%) Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone — 57.5 million (-36.3%) Peace, Mike

Peace, Mike

Spoilers regarding the original: Peace, Mike

Thanks baumer! That genuinely means a lot. I'm glad I'm here, and thankful this community exists, and that you are still around too, because from the beginnings of BOM you have always been one of my favourites! Peace, Mike

Beauty and the Beast is down only 20.6% from last week. If Mother's Day is kind to it, it could have an especially strong weekend coming up. Peace, Mike

It is correct. As per BOM: DOM: $168.5 million (+$7.4 million Wednesday per Forbes) INT: $325.8 million (as of May 10th) ---------- TOTAL WORLDWIDE: $501.7 million Peace, Mike

This is a definite possibility. A 59% drop for the second weekend, essentially, which would be pretty standard, I think. Civil War, Avengers 2, Iron Man 2, Iron Man 3 all dropped between 58.4 - 59.5% in their second weekend. I'm hoping for a somewhat better hold (56-57%). Peace, Mike

Also, as others have mentioned, the trailer is terrific because it gives us a glimpse, it tells us just enough, it gives us an idea of the film and especially the feel/style of it. It's a great trailer for a Blade Runner film, as well as for any film because it doesn't give the whole flippin' thing away. Peace, Mike

Looks like stripe, from the Tuesday thread, was correct about likely seeing 35-40% drops to correct for the huge Tuesday increases. On face value, not a great drop for Guardians, but in the context of it's Tuesday increase (and the yet-to-be-known Thursday number), it's basically impossible to know. It all depends. As baumer usually says, we gotta wait and see, as we don't really know until the Friday/weekend rolls around. Peace, Mike

So, I watched Blade Runner (the Final Cut) and pretty much loved it. There wasn't really a moment during the film that made me think "wow", but it sure did hit me at the end, and I picked up on the pieces throughout. There's a lot to admire and think about. It really hit me when [spoiler for original]: The film is also really beautiful to look at (at least with the re-mastered Final Cut version). And damn, that score, which I was already familiar with, is incredible when used in the film. Really beautiful. But here's something really interesting to me (again, spoilers for the original): I have watched the trailer for Blade Runner 2049 about a half dozen times, and my reaction has been that it looks really good. I love the look and sound of it. I have been looking forward to this, before having watched the original, primarily because it looks good and because Villeneuve is at the helm. I don't think I would be looking forward to it as much if he wasn't at the helm. One of the (many) reasons Villaneuve's Arrival is so brilliant for me is because it tells an immersive story through visuals and music - a story edited and arranged in such a way that it is more than just the sum of its parts. It sits with you and is thematically rich. Now that I have watched the original, I can already notice the homages in the trailer for 2049. I'm really interesting in seeing what Villeneuve (et al) will do with the sequel. Peace, Mike

After the strong Tuesday increase, I have to imagine Guardians is falling at least 32-35% on Wednesday to about $7.9 to 8.2 million. (Anything stronger than this would genuinely surprise me.) I'll guess about $8 million. If it makes $8 million Wednesday, and then with a 10% drop on Thursday, my weekend calculations bring it to ~$64 million for its second weekend (a 56% drop). That sounds about right. Peace, Mike