MikeQ

It is odd reading the reviewers that are critical of the Greengrass style of filming, with the handheld camera and shaky style, as if this is a new development. He already did this with two other Bourne movies - is it that unexpected? Of course, I can understand if that style is just not for you. To his credit, one reviewer acknowledged that the Bourne franchise just doesn't seem to be for him as he hasn't liked any of the Greengrass Bourne movies: "It started as a strong modern day spy franchise, but once Paul Greengrass took over it became everything that’s wrong with action movies. People who love his shakycam will get more of that in Jason Bourne, and I guess it’s time for me to admit this is not a franchise for me." I quite enjoyed both Supremacy and Ultimatum, so if this is the case, and it's mostly a situation where this film just doesn't feel "fresh" or as necessary after all we've seen with Bourne and , then I think I will enjoy it, though perhaps not as much as the original three. Peace, Mike

Dory's strong late legs are kicking in. It's very nearly even with Toy Story 3 today, which went on to make another $35 million after today. This would take Dory to $496 million. With strong late legs and a good Labour Day weekend push, Dory could still potentially make it to $500 million. Though perhaps unlikely, it still looks possible. Peace, Mike

Both positive - good sign. HR: "Jason Bourne is an engrossing re-immersion in the violent and mysterious world of Matt Damon's shadowy secret op. With director Paul Greengrass compulsively cutting the almost incessant action to the absolute bone in his trademark fashion and some solid new characters stirred in, Universal's franchise refresher should have no problem being re-embraced by longtime series fans nine years on (not counting the lukewarm non-Damon stopgap The Bourne Legacy in 2012)." Peace, Mike

Ice Age went up $373,000 from estimates. Peace, Mike

Sorry, by trailers I meant all of the marketing, the official trailer and the numerous TV spots, etc, which I find effective. Where I am in Canada, before Star Trek Beyond, there was a video of Matt Damon talking direct to audience about how Bourne is back. Peace, Mike Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I was curious about where all the Bourne films were tracking for opening weekend gross versus what they actually grossed opening weekend. This is what I could find (if anyone has different info for where they were tracking, let me know, this is all I could find from a cursory search): Bourne Identity (2002) Tracking: High teens to $20 million (?) http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=1203&p=.htm Actual: $27.1 million Adjusted: $40.4 million RT: 83% (7.0 rating) Bourne Supremacy (2004) Tracking: $35 million, “chance of exceeding $40 million” http://variety.com/2004/film/box-office/can-bourne-reign-supreme-this-weekend-1117908141/ Actual: $52.5 million Adjusted: $73.2 million RT: 81% (7.2 rating) Bourne Ultimatum (2007) Tracking: $40+ million http://deadline.com/2007/07/tracking-simpsons-50m-bourne-40m-2867/ Actual: $69.3 million Adjusted: $87.2 million RT: 93% (8.0 rating) The Bourne Legacy (2012) Tracking: $40 million range http://variety.com/2012/film/news/box-office-bourne-legacy-aims-for-no-1-1118057674/ $35 million https://www.yahoo.com/tv/bourne-legacy-poised-box-office-crown-dark-knight-223431681.html Actual: $38.1 million Adjusted: $42.5 million RT: 56% (5.9 rating) Jason Bourne (2016) Tracking: $50 million range RT: TBD Certainly nothing definitive here at all, but I think ‘Jason Bourne’ could outperform tracking. I know that people suggest the marketing has been underwhelming, but I actually think the trailers have looked good, and I think the audience targeted by Bourne are ready for this and that certainly having Damon/Greengrass back ensure this is less comparable to Legacy and more comparable to the previous three films. Of course, this is contingent on reviews. The Bourne Legacy was the first film in the series to disappoint, I would say, and it was also the only film that wasn’t very good and wasn’t well-received critically. I’m wondering if because we have Damon and Greengrass back, and IF it’s as good as the first three films, that we could have a $65-70+ million opener on our hands. I put the adjusted opening weekend grosses above for a reason - the last good Bourne movie with Damon opened to an adjusted $87.2 million. Is it unreasonable to expect a $65-70+ million opening weekend for a new Bourne movie with Damon/Greengrass back? I don’t know. But reviews will certainly matter before I can make a more definitive prediction. So, some food for thought. Peace, Mike

Thank you Ryan. It should have been on the list, as it was a summer wide release - I have added it and revised my post. Thanks for pointing that out! Peace, Mike

Updated RT Watch/Critical Reception for Wide-Release Summer films: Finding Dory, Nice Guys, and Captain America look to still be the clear winners of the summer season thus far, as the only films with 90%+ and an average rating above 7. We'll see if Jason Bourne, with Greengrass & Damon back, will end up in that higher tier of critical reception or not. I'm also very interested in seeing how Suicide Squad is received by critics. Ice Age is nearly the worst rated film of the summer - from this perspective, it's not much of a surprise that it looks to open so poorly. Summer Films (Wide-Release — May/June/July so far) FRESH Finding Dory - 94% - 7.7 rating The Nice Guys - 91% - 7.6 rating Captain America: Civil War - 90% - 7.6 rating Star Trek Beyond - 85% - 6.9 rating The Conjuring 2 - 80% - 6.7 rating Lights Out - 78% - 6.4 rating Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping - 77% - 6.7 rating The Shallows - 77% - 6.5 rating The BFG - 73% - 6.7 rating Ghostbusters - 73% - 6.4 rating Secret Life of Pets - 73% - 6.2 rating Central Intelligence - 68% - 5.7 rating The Infiltrator - 67% - 6.5 rating Neighbours 2: Sorority Rising - 62% - 5.7 rating ROTTEN Me Before You - 59% - 5.6 rating Money Monster - 57% - 5.9 rating The Purge: Election Year - 54% - 5.4 rating X-Men: Apocalypse - 48% - 5.7 rating Free State of Jones - 43% - 5.4 rating Angry Birds Movie - 43% - 4.9 rating Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates - 39% - 5.0 rating TMNT: Out of the Shadows - 38% - 4.7 rating The Legend of Tarzan - 36% - 5.1 rating Now You See Me 2 - 33% - 4.9 rating Independence Day: Resurgence - 32% - 4.4 rating Alice Through the Looking Glass - 30% - 4.6 rating Warcraft - 29% - 4.2 rating Ice Age: Collision Course - 13% - 3.9 rating The Darkness - 5% - 2.5 rating Peace, Mike

Here's my latest "RT Watch" update on the critical reception of summer films: I'm hoping Jason Bourne will come close to the top of the list with a 90+% and 8.0 or higher average rating, ala. Bourne Ultimatum. With Greengrass and Damon back, one can hope. Ice Age: Collision Course looks to be nearly the worst critically received film of the summer. Summer Films (Wide-Release — May/June/July so far) FRESH Finding Dory - 95% - 7.7 rating Captain America: Civil War - 90% - 7.6 rating Star Trek Beyond - 89% - 7.5 rating The Conjuring 2 - 80% - 6.6 rating Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping - 77% - 6.7 rating The Shallows - 76% - 6.5 rating Ghostbusters - 73% - 6.5 rating Secret Life of Pets - 73% - 6.2 rating The BFG - 73% - 6.7 rating Central Intelligence - 67% - 5.7 rating The Infiltrator - 65% - 6.4 rating Neighbours 2: Sorority Rising - 62% - 5.7 rating ROTTEN Me Before You - 59% - 5.6 rating Money Monster - 57% - 5.9 rating The Purge: Election Year - 55% - 5.3 rating X-Men: Apocalypse - 48% - 5.7 rating Free State of Jones - 43% - 5.4 rating Angry Birds Movie - 43% - 4.9 rating Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates - 40% - 5.0 rating TMNT: Out of the Shadows - 38% - 4.7 rating The Legend of Tarzan - 36% - 5.0 rating Now You See Me 2 - 33% - 4.9 rating Independence Day: Resurgence - 32% - 4.4 rating Alice Through the Looking Glass - 30% - 4.6 rating Warcraft - 29% - 4.2 rating Ice Age: Collision Course - 16% - 4.2 rating The Darkness - 5% - 2.5 rating Peace, Mike

Boy, I'm glad I wasn't on here yesterday. I never would have expected Ghostbusters to hit a $46 million weekend off of a true Friday of $13.8 million. Impressive. I'm not entirely sure what to expect for legs on this one, but it looks like the film actually managed to avoid being a disaster box office wise. If it can manage a 3 multiplier or so and make it to $140+ million, that'd be a relative "success", though clearly still pretty poor considering the budget, and with what I doubt will be a very hefty overseas gross. The original Ghostbusters only made $53 million, or 18% of it's worldwide gross, internationally. Though the international scene has obviously changed considerably, it's evident by the percentage that Ghostbusters didn't have much of an international presence to begin with. Dory didn't stabilize as well as hoped, but it did nab an $11 million weekend. I still wonder if from here on out could be smooth sailing for it. It rode out the thunderous arrival of SLOP - could the rest of July, and August, prove to have good late legs for it? I can't imagine the terrible new Ice Age making much of an impact. Still, $500 million looks unlikely now. Let's see how it plays out this week. Peace, Mike

So what are we expecting multiplier-wise for Ghostbuster's weekend? My total stab in the dark based on rth's low end for Friday of $16.5 million: Previews: $3.4 million Friday (Sans-Preview): $13.1 million Saturday: $14.4 million (+10%) Sunday: $11.5 million (-20%) TOTAL: $42.4 million Using high end of rth's estimate: Previews: $3.4 million Friday: $14.1 million Saturday: $15.5 million (+10%) Sunday: $12.4 million (-20%) TOTAL: $45.4 million Or is that too generous? Peace, Mike

Thanks for sharing, I hadn't seen that before. Yeah, if $500 million is basically the number it needs, I don't see a way for this film to be a financial success. Looks like a sequel is extremely unlikely, unfortunately. Peace, Mike

$2.6 million for Dory seems really good, no? Could lead to $12-13 million weekend, and a good rebound. Peace, Mike

$3.4 million is more than I expected. Given that this film was labelled as a disaster before it was even released, and that it probably skews older and more female than your typical blockbuster, I wasn't expecting huge previews. I expect about $50 million this weekend based on that, but perhaps my reasoning will be off. Also, I'm not sure how WOM will play yet - feels like a crowd pleaser to me, but given the vitriol from certain corners, that may create a wash in terms of WOM. This feels like such a wildcard movie. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Agreed with Baumer and others, I'm expecting a muted preview gross, maybe around $2.5 million. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I'll preface my thoughts by saying that I'm someone who didn't grow up with the original. I've watched it a couple times. To me it's a good 'B' movie, that is aided considerably by the wonderful Bill Murray. I saw the new Ghostbusters tonight, and it was very funny and highly enjoyable. I'd give it about a 'B' as well. The original has a better written story thematically, but this one made me laugh more, and it was scarier, too. Just as silly as the first, and with a very talented group of women. Just like Bill Murray made the first film, this time around McKinnon really steals the show. She is marvellously weird and wonderful here, and I was always drawn toward her on screen. She is something special, and I hope this is just the beginning of her in film. Wiig and McCarthy have a good chemistry together. Jones doesn't really have much to work with, but she brings an energy that the others don't have. I echo some others here in saying that I would really, really like to see a sequel happen. I want to see a Ghostbusters with these women where they can really roam free and where they aren't beholden to the original. Though, I imagine those who grew up with Ghostbusters will appreciate those nods and references to the original. From a box office perspective, I expect this to be a real crowd pleaser. However, I also imagine that a purist of the original film wouldn't like it. I can definitely understand that. But in watching the film, I don't think you could ever create the same feel of the original Ghostbusters. The spark and funny happen from the Ghostbusters themselves, and Jones, McKinnon, Wiig, and McCarthy create their own energy and are really fantastic together. This is why I want to see a sequel that caters to them and their incredible humour. They create a joyful, funny core to this film, and I want to see more of them. Peace, Mike

The fourth one is okay. The first three were better, I think. I didn't see the others after that one. Peace, Mike

What do you mean by "snatch me a bit"? And obviously the Paranormal Activity series has still been very successful. Peace, Mike

I would have thought that too, but the second Paranormal Activity movie didn't hit $100 million. Peace, Mike

For comparison, Despicable Me, Despicable Me 2, and Minions all got an A. The A- score for SLOP could be meaningfully different... or not. Cinemascore is frustratingly bad - I wish they would employ a better methodology and better sampling. Peace, Mike

Looks like Dory is being really hurt by SLOP's huge opening. $6 mil would be barely an increase from Thursday! Ouch. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

If $36 million is correct for the Friday (Deadline, as others have mentioned, can't be trusted, but for the sake of illustration, let's say their high end of the estimate is somehow correct), it would mean it's Friday gross excluding previews is $30.7 million. So the weekend could look something like: Previews: $5.3 million Friday (Sans Previews): $30.7 million Saturday: $32 million (+4.5%) Sunday: $26.2 million (-18%) OW TOTAL: $94.2 million The best comparison I can think of is Inside Out, being an original animated film that also opened in the summer in the comparable $90-100 million area. Inside Out was essentially flat on the Saturday (up ~1% from the Friday excluding previews), and dropped 18.5% on the Sunday. Illumination has branded themselves now as the "Minions/Despicable Me" studio, and advertising for Pets was pervasive a year in advance of it's opening. I don't expect it to play like a pure original animated film because of those reasons (similar to Pixar being a brand). But maybe I'm wrong in thinking that. Peace, Mike

From what I recall, Inside Out did not take a big hit from Minions - it only dropped 40% the weekend Minions opened. I expect Dory to drop harder though -- I think it will drop 45-47% against Pets. Which is still pretty good; I partly expect the harder drop because of last weekend being a more inflated 3-day holiday weekend due to July 4th falling on the Monday this year. Peace, Mike

Awesome, thanks. The association is significant in the first case, with the 191 multipliers over the last ~20 years that you have in your regression (p<0.002), and the association is, as I expected, not statistically significant in the second case, with the multipliers over the last 5 years. This suggests that multipliers have significantly changed over the last couple decades (at least for films that have opened $50+ million -- and based on your scatterplot, the relationship is that over time, multipliers have gotten smaller/worse, ignoring all other factors). But that when confining the analysis to just the last 5 years, there has not been a significant change in multipliers. For the first model, though R-squared is "only" 0.0555, and therefore only 5.5% of the variance in multipliers can be explained by the date, this isn't bad when considering that there are a host of other factors/variables that we would want to include in our model. Date alone explains a decent enough chunk of the variation, considering that we would imagine that WOM, release date, competition, genre, quality of the film, etc, etc (some factors of which are hard to quantify) would all be important factors to consider as well in determining multiplier. Peace, Mike

Can't you just test R for significance? I can quickly do it by hand, if you tell me what your N size is. If the R-squared is 0.009, then R must be 0.0948. My guess is a significance test would say this association is not statistically significant over the last 5 years. Peace, Mike