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PS I saw this at a guild screening two weeks ago, haven't touched the leaks. Some of the visuals are gorgeous, yes. But it isn't anything new for Lubezki and it his worst work of the 10s. It is distant filmmaking simply for showboating. I can't even give a fuck about the gorgeous shots because they are so inconsequential and needless. I saw Joy the same day as this and it's cinematog is much more striking as it is inventive, employing a huge variety of techniques that are all intentional and shape the narrative and characters. And, do I need to talk about AGI's direction? Pure torture porn, and adds nothing new to his directorial ouevre. And the faux Malick bullshit is done so poorly I liked Birdman but after this I'm starting to see him as a total hack. Also, you can feel the lack of feminine touch and it hurts. The whole film is tasteless in that regard. The costumes were great though. I really really hate The Danish Girl, but this takes the cake for the worst prestige picture of the year. Maybe the decade. @Obi-Wan Telemachos I don't really ever like Hardy and to me they asked him to indulge in his worst tendencies here. I'm kind of surprised he is so divisive, but it is going to land him one of my least favorite Oscar nominations. The end is pretty bad, more faux Malick that doesn't resonate. I don't think it is that open ended though.

Who here has seen this? I'm hoping there is at least one person who hates it as much as me. I don't even like the cinematography; it is too distant and serves no real purpose. Poutler is the MVP of the cast. Gleeson is good. Leo is okay and Hardy... Yikes. The worst performance of the year for me.

Bailee likes everything besides Citizen Kane... What?

Your back and forths are tiring. The leak of Star Wars is a cam recording that people won't sit through The Revenant, Hateful Eight and Joy will all suffer because their audiences keep up with leaks and they are HD screeners.

What does this post mean? We already have estimated and these aren't happening haha.

Star Wars likely won't get a nomination, but Harry Potter isn't the a good comparison. Star Wars has always had more prestige. These predictions are fun and everyone brings something to them because they meditate and look at precursors and precedents. And then there is Halba, who judges completely based on his reaction to the movies he hasn't seen. Is there a block button?

Glad I'm not the only one who noticed the Third Reich imagery. It isn't new to the Star Wars universe and was so purposefully overwrought here.

Oscar Isaac is one of the hottest men on the earth and in my top two favorite male actors right now. So weird they got him for Star Wars.

Also, it is weird that three of the hottest indie darlings are in this: Adam Driver, Domnhall Gleeson and Oscar Isaac. Domnhall was campy perfection and Driver was spectacular, chilling and really sexy (from someone who doesn't find him to be too attractive). Isaac was fantastic as usual, but I need more from him.

I loved it, but I had no capacity to not love it. Complaining about the beats not being earned is a little strange though, considering that is how Star Wars has always been. I don't think that it is too much of a travesty that some little moments go by fast when you are dealing with an epic though. But yeah, I cried four times. I had a ton of fun.

Well, that is even more crazy than the best picture thing. What about sound nominations and score. That is four, at the worst.

Brooklyn isn't eligible for AFI. Can't read into that. At worst it is in tenth.

Where are you determine where passion is coming from? Because this just isn't true. Hell, I was at guild screenings for Joy and The Revenant last week and the most chatter I was hearing was about Trumbo. Spotlight didn't come up once, whereas Carol and The Danish Girl did. That's anecdotal, obviously, but Carol, Mad Max and The Big Short all have a ton of passion. And what is more notable is the trends. These three films have exploded in the past couple weeks whereas Sootlight has become stagnant or even fallen.

I like Spotlight a lot! I really do. But it isn't sweeping critics awards. Mad Max and Carol both have more wins. That being said, it does look like it could be a mini Argo. My biggest concern with Spotlight as a frontrunner is how little nominations it is going to amass. Picture and screenplay are locked and director and editing might as well be locked. McAdams is fighting for a spot whereas Keaton and Ruffalo look kind of DOA. Score has an outside chance of happening. But, for the sake of it, let's say it gets five nominations-- it really can't get many more than that. The last movie to win BP on five nominations was The Departed and it won four of those. Spotlight isn't The Departed. Furthermore, Argo had acting nominations. It wouldn't have won without those... I think this is a strong case for it being a weak frontrunner.

Do I really need to put "I think" in front of all of my posts? This is a forum, I'm just expressing my opinion and I'm sorry that it is coming off high and mighty. That isn't my intention. I will admit The Hateful Eight thing was a little early, but I do think Weinstein killed its BP chances. It could've gotten in fairly easily, but between QT refusing screeners and Weinstein making the release date so late, it just kind of got lost. The reviews are way stronger than I anticipated and the Metacritic score doesn't really match with what I've read. That being said, I hear Tarantino and indulgent in the same sentence and I go "Yikes." Other people hear that and go "Fuck yeah! Sounds like fun." I don't know about the dismissal of The Big Short being the frontrunner though. I was at a screening of that populated with voters and the reaction was amazing. We've said Spotlight is a weak frontrunner since September, saying The Big Short could be ahead isn't reactionary. It is just possible, and that's all I was trying to make known. I will admit my first post about The Martian used really firm language. I just mean that I don't see it in the top 5 anymore, and it is barely hanging on to a spot in director. That is kind of surprising since it was the director frontrunner for a good month, no?

I highly doubt it. There is no hype and there hasn't been any campaigning since AFI. It is in that bubble zone with Bridge of Spies, Brooklyn, and no Star Wars. It is falling soooooo fast. As per usual, the pundits are about three weeks behind though.

Simmer down guys. Talk about reactionary. That being said, The Martian is done. No way the third best received blockbuster of the year gets awards traction. It simply happened out of necessity and now there are far more suitable contenders.

It wasn't ever really in contention for a nomination. It had minor Tarantino written all over it and it could be his weakest received film. It isn't supposed to be that good and the last act is super self indulgent. I guess we'll know for sure on the 21st.

Why is there so much confidence in The Hateful Eight? It isn't going to get a best picture nomination, let alone win. I'm starting to feel like Mad Max could run away with this. I think Spotlight's odds of winning are like 1/5 and rapidly decreasing, but what is going to come up ahead?

Vikander would struggle, but Mara would be in and likely the winner if Cate campaigned for her and didn't cause vote splitting.

Joy should still be fine in original. The category is weak and the script is fine. The Academg still loves DOR and they aren't really going to care if the critics are being petty about him.

The Big Short should be safe here.

Carol is just as much as a director piece as Mad Max and The Big Short though. I still think Brooklyn is really strong. It's Globes snub probably doesn't mean anything.

Also, is The Martian still conceivably in the Top 5 for Best Picture? Spotlight, Carol, The Revenant and The Big Short seem safely ahead. Mad Max could easily be too.

Leo isn't Streep and that was a baity role. This is the opposite of that. Besides, Leo is 41 and I don't think anyone in the industry perceives as well as the Internet dies. He's never win an award from LAFCA or NYFCC IIRC. I don't think he is as overdue as others seem to.