Omni

It could. Most likely range right now is 20/22M euros, or 22.5/24.5M dollars. Needs to remain in the top 3 the weekend before Christmas to go higher than that. At least one of the two big local products (released on Dec 12th and 18th respectively) has to disappoint.

WEEKEND RESULTS (28th NOVEMBER/1st DECEMBER) RANK MOVIE WEEKEND GROSS HOLD TOTAL GROSS CONVERTED TO NA 1 Frozen 2 6.899.793 NEW 7.674.953 138.00/153.50 2 A Rainy Day in New York 1.240.438 NEW 1.240.438 24.80/24.80 3 Cetto C'è, Senzadubbiamente (It) 1.115.563 -55% 4.116.784 22.30/82.30 4 J'Accuse 721.369 -41% 2.220.924 14.40/44.40 5 Midway 576.769 NEW 623.213 11.50/12.50 6 Ford vs Ferrari 281.102 -62% 2.746.799 5.60/54.90 7 Hustlers 224.251 -61% 4.328.009 4.50/86.60 8 Parasite 141.340 -52% 1.393.669 2.80/28.00 9 Il Peccato - Il Furore di Michelangelo (It) 136.807 NEW 136.807 2.70/2.70 10 Countdown 132.625 -66% 591.433 2.60/11.80 As expected, despite Frozen 2's opening, the weekend was up just 2.33% from the same weekend last year, when Bohemian Rhapsody and Grinch combined for 7M+. 2019's lead on 2018 is now 14.43%. Frozen 2 delivered a very strong opening and went very close to being one of the very few movies to ever have a 3M+ day, as well as the third one in this crazy year after Endgame and The Lion King. This is also the third highest animated OW ever and the second animated opening of all time. That said, considering how crazy of a merchandise phenomenon the first Frozen was, an OW just 25% above Dory, which was considered a disappointment back at the time. From here on, though, the movie could go anywhere from 5% below the original (19.7M euros) and above Inside Out (3rd biggest animated movie ever after the animated LK and Ice Age 3), depending on how strong it remains once Christmas and the relative competition comes. Good for Woody Allen, a finish above half a million admissions is possible. Pretty bad for Midway though, it's going to disappear very quickly from the chart. Holdovers were hit very hard from Frozen 2, even those who appealed to a whole different audience. Addams Family dropped 70% while Maleficent 2 got a disastrous -83%. This weekend: * Knives Out- doesn't feel like a movie that will breakout, 1M+ could be doable * The Good Liar - out of the top 5 * The Two Popes and Where'd You Go Bernadette? - modest numbers in likely limited releases Frozen 2 will have zero trouble repeating at #1. There are also a couple of local products that could prevent Knives Out to finish in the podium.

Nope. No holiday + big domestic drop.

Of course TLK is not animation. But F2's true OW (Wed doesn't count) is 6.9M, which unfortunately is below Minions as well (7.16). Would have needed a 3.21M Sunday to beat that - and I honestly have no idea how it didn't happen after what I saw yesterday. Maybe the brand is weaker in the south?

Got this smart idea of seeing Frozen 2 again with my family on Sunday. All showings basically sold out. And there's a showing every 30 minutes. This is making 3M+ today.

1 FROZEN II - IL SEGRETO DI ARENDELLE (FROZEN II) 27/11/2019 USA WALT DISNEY S.M.P. ITALIA € 2.484.343 369.560 € 4.698.495 719.928 (Sat gross/sat adm/total gross/total adm) fabiopazzo's guess turned out to be conservative So Frozen 2 confirms its status of weekend movie in Italy as well. Looking at a 6.5+ 4-day opening, close to Beauty and the Beast. One could hope for something more, but at least RJ 95's hopeful post-OD scenario came about true. Second place for Woody Allen, 472K Saturday. It's very rare for that director to fail here.

That was just an optimistic guess.

An 80% rise on Friday is actually pretty good. The first Frozen did 19.7M and I still see this grossing more than that.

Yeah, that 12th December early slot was basically perfect. Maybe the late November slot is a bad one for animation, as edroger3 said - see The Grinch last year. At this point I just hope F2 follows that movie's pattern, as that would mean a 7.4M opening. Dory had a 500K Thursday and opened at 5.5M over the 4-day. Same opening if we use I2 as a comparison. Family movies get 10+ IMs in Italy, regularly higher than France and Germany. Also, Italy opens above Spain 90% of the times as our market is more frontloaded, so an opening on par with it would be disappointing. Also, for those interested, Midway increased on day 2. Being focused on Frozen I forgot that the movie was originally listed as a Thursday release, so that deflated its OD big time. Still looking at a total gross below 1.5M though.

It's definitely overall possible, but even that is still a sub-BatB OW. Oh, Midway opened too. 46K OD Its total gross will probably be around 50% of Hustlers OW. And Parasite is still in the top 10, above 200K admissions already. Great performance here, too!

Uhm...what happened? This is just 25% better than Incredibles 2, which finished at 12.1M. And on par with Aladdin, which finished at 15.4M. We'll see how it does over the weekend, but this OD is very disappointing.

Saw Frozen 2 this afternoon. It was a bit odd to see the theater moderately busy at 2pm, a time of the day in which it is rare to even see theaters opened (showings usually start at 4/5pm due to school+work). It also felt weird to see so much merchandise sold in a theater that usually only gives away a few punko's here and there. Not to mention to see that litterary everyone was there for the same film. The film was good, about on par with the first Frozen. I saw it laying under the Frozen blanket I won (presale prize), drinking from a Frozen glass and with Frozen clothes on. To hell my damn 34 years.

The theater I'm going to is giving Frozen 2 13 showtimes on a freaking average work/school day. That's almost as much as all the other Hollywood movies combined. We'll see how high it goes. It likely needs an 8+ 5-day weekend to have a solid chance to become the 4th (and last, theorically) movie of the year above 4M admissions. Close to 9M on the 4-day frame to possibly get a 30M or so finish, around Endgame and Joker. Beauty and the Beast had an opening thursday of 845K, on its way to a 6.9M 4-day opening. Considering F2 should have a similar anticipation, its weekend IM shouldn't be much different than the LA, and given Thursday drops from OD tend to be around 30%, anything below a 1M debut today would be quite disappointing for Elsa & co.

There's an interesting fact about the Star Wars movies in Italy. The old saga: SW4 4.9M admissions SW5 3.2M admissions SW6 2.75M admissions That's a 35% drop from #4 to #5 and a 15% drop from #5 to #6. Now the prequels: SW1 2.35M admissions SW2 1.65M admissions SW3 1.45M admissions Means a 30% drop from #1 to #2 and a 10%+ drop from #2 to #3. The new saga: SW7 3.4M admissions SW8 2.05M admissions SW9 ??? Last Jedi dropped 40% from Force Awakens. If the pattern is respected, Skywalker will decrease by 15/20% from Jedi. Which is what I'm expecting the movie to do, as history can't be ignored. A total around Maleficent's (12.5M) is my guess.

Competition is fierce in Italy. I'm not worried about Star Wars, which won't attract a good bunch of casual moviegoers, but there are two local comedies aiming at families that open on F2's 3rd and 4th weekend (the first is a Christmas crap starring a very popular duo, the second is a Pinocchio film starring Benigni as Geppetto), and that's where the movie needs to remain strong to get some decent Christmas bump. 30M dollars means 27M euros. It's a realistic target, but to me it looks much more optimistic than low. Would have been more confident in it with the old release date (12th December) and without one of those two local comedies. I'd go with 27/28 for the time being.

Sorry everyone, personal troubles combined with diminishing interest in box office (f@ck imdb!) took me away from the site for awhile. Back for Frozen 2! Quick update: * Joker unfortunately had a huuuge post-Halloween drop (like every other movie btw), so Endgame is safe at #1 in the SH chart, unless the movie is re-released: it's at 29.11M after a 230K weekend, while Endgame stands at 30.28M; Joker did beat the Marvel movie in admissions though, 4.15M+ vs 4.10 * Hustlers did very well, it's at 4.00M after a 570K weekend, making the 5M mark reachable * Maleficent will finish at 12.35/12.40M, it suffered the post-Halloween collpase too * Overall box office in November kind of mirrored NA's situation, as the lead over 2018 has lowered from 15.50% to 14%; despite Frozen 2's opening I doubt the % improves by the end of this weekend, as last year we had Bohemian Rhapsody making 5.5M and Grinch getting almost 2 millions (and while F2 should definitely beat the former, Midway will definitely fail to beat the latter) Frozen 2 opens in 2 days. Expecting 1M OD, 6M 4-day. Seeing it at 2:30pm.

Thursday numbers: 1 LE RAGAZZE DI WALL STREET (HUSTLERS) 07/11/2019 USA LUCKY RED DISTRIB. € 199.418 29.600 € 199.817 29.662 2 IL GIORNO PIU' BELLO DEL MONDO 31/10/2019 ITA VISION DISTRIBUTION € 148.157 25.915 € 3.623.035 557.502 3 JOKER 03/10/2019 USA WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A. € 66.197 9.948 € 27.432.750 3.916.743 4 LA FAMIGLIA ADDAMS (THE ADDAMS FAMILY) 31/10/2019 USA EAGLE PICTURES S.P.A. € 46.411 8.320 € 3.847.258 594.823 5 MALEFICENT - SIGNORA DEL MALE (MALEFICENT - MISTRESS OF EVIL) 17/10/2019 USA WALT DISNEY S.M.P. ITALIA € 43.351 7.217 € 10.874.632 1.642.832 6 LA BELLE EPOQUE 07/11/2019 FRA I WONDER PICTURES S.R.L. € 30.742 5.358 € 49.836 7.928 7 PARASITE 07/11/2019 KOR ACADEMY TWO DISTR. S.R.L. € 29.588 4.863 € 38.026 5.986 8 GLI UOMINI D'ORO 07/11/2019 ITA 01 DISTRIBUTION € 29.458 5.059 € 29.458 5.059 9 TERMINATOR: DESTINO OSCURO (TERMINATOR: DARK FATE) 31/10/2019 USA 20TH CENTURY FOX ITALIA S.P.A. € 29.186 4.483 € 1.103.551 154.489 10 DOCTOR SLEEP 31/10/2019 USA WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A. € 28.821 4.614 € 1.358.698 194.292 Kind of an abysmal set of weekdays for pretty much every movie. Hustlers wins Thursday with a very solid OD. It will get between 1.5 and 2.0 over the weekend. Guess Lopez + anti-Wall Street theme helped more than expected. According to these numbers, Joker should drop almost 70% from last weekend, Addams Family even more than that, Maleficent and Terminator around 65%. So either people are just waiting for the weekend to see movies (because of last week's long weekend) or we're just looking at some terrible drops. Also, nice result for Parasite!

WEEKEND RESULTS (31 OCTOBER - 3 NOVEMBER) RANK MOVIE WEEKEND GROSS HOLD TOTAL GROSS CONVERTED TO NA 1 The Addams Family 3.543.887 NEW 3.543.887 70.90/70.90 2 Il Giorno Più Bello del Mondo (It) 2.925.239 NEW 2.925.239 58.50/58.50 3 Maleficent 2 2.219.818 -9% 10.570.597 44.40/211.40 4 Joker 2.209.379 +10% 27.036.522 44.20/540.70 5 L'Uomo del Labirinto (It) 1.196.790 NEW 1.251.975 23.90/23.90 6 Doctor Sleep 1.118.764 NEW 1.118.764 22.40/22.40 7 Terminator: Dark Fate 898.105 NEW 898.105 18.00/18.00 8 Downtown Abbey 829.030 -29% 2.369.067 16.60/47.40 9 Tutto il Mio Folle Amore (It) 822.842 +8% 1.822.995 16.50/36.50 10 Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark 199.062 -29% 566.504 4.00/11.30 Despite the great performances of Addams Family, Joker and local comedy Il Giorno più Bello del Mondo, the weekend was just up 12.05% from the same weekend last year. 2019's lead on 2018 has even decreased, to 15.19%, as last year Halloween fell outside the weekend. In fact everything from the #2 movie to the #9 is much stronger this year, but last year we had The Nutcracker opening with an exceptional 4.26M and all movies after the ninth position being considerably higher. The Addams Family unexpectedly delivered a blockbuster opening and won the weekend. It started very well on Thursday, but surprisingly held like a non-Halloween movie the days after. Since there is no other decent option for kids until Frozen 2 opens on Nov 27th, Addams should get an acceptable multiplier from this highly inflated weekend (a 1.1M Sunday is usually the result of a 2.5M weekend at best) and get to 7.5M total. Joker is the other Hollywood story of the weekend. It managed an increase thanks to the pitiful weakness of DF and the somehow underwhelming opening of Doctor Strange (or maybe it's just the opposite). With 27 millions already in the bank coming from a 2.2M weekend, I would normally say “Bye bye Endgame!”, but this was a pretty damn inflated hold, and we could easily see a 60%+ drop next time. Anyways, I'd say Joker has now a 90% chance of beating the last Avengers movie and become the highest grossing comic book movie of all time. Maleficent 2 did relatively well, though Addams Family definitely hurt it as the Jolie movie was supposed to increase (kids flicks always benefit from these kinds of rainy holiday weekends more than what adult movies do). Still, the result is enough to keep a 13M total still in sight, thus overtaking both Jungle Book (10.36M) and Dumbo (11.21M) among Disney LA and doing just 5/10% less than the original movie and 15% less than Cinderella and Aladdin. Doctor Sleep did decently, though it had a bigger potential being the major horror movie of the Halloween weekend. Dark Fate bombed, but it became totally obvious after that dysmal screen count (which was basically ½ of Joker's – in fact the movie PSA wasn't bad at all) – and considering that Genysis failed to reach a total gross of 3M. Next weekend will be kind of rainy too, so that will help mitigate the harsh drops. My guess: 1) Addams Family > 1.5M (-57%) 2) Il Giorno Più bello del Mondo > 1.4M (-53%) 2) Joker > 1.0M (-55%) 3) Hustlers > 1.0M NEW 4) Maleficent 2 > 0.90M (-59%) Also opening this week (from highest potential to lowest): * Gli Uomini d'Oro – attempt of a local noir movie * Motherless Brooklyn * The Irishman * Parasite * The Art of Racing in the Air and for the 30th anniversary of the fall of Berlin Wall, the limited re-releases of Good bye Lenin and Wenders' The Sky Above Berlin (Der Himmel uber Berlin).

01/11/19 (Friday - holiday) 1 LA FAMIGLIA ADDAMS (THE ADDAMS FAMILY) 31/10/2019 USA EAGLE PICTURES S.P.A. € 1.024.305 154.838 € 1.498.715 227.828 2 IL GIORNO PIU' BELLO DEL MONDO 31/10/2019 ITA VISION DISTRIBUTION € 913.292 135.734 € 1.277.147 189.854 3 JOKER 03/10/2019 USA WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A. € 692.799 90.552 € 25.870.112 3.699.201 4 MALEFICENT - SIGNORA DEL MALE (MALEFICENT - MISTRESS OF EVIL) 17/10/2019 USA WALT DISNEY S.M.P. ITALIA € 658.242 94.273 € 9.333.015 1.412.674 5 L'UOMO DEL LABIRINTO 30/10/2019 ITA MEDUSA FILM S.P.A. € 384.073 55.590 € 596.640 87.782 6 TERMINATOR: DESTINO OSCURO (TERMINATOR: DARK FATE) 31/10/2019 USA 20TH CENTURY FOX ITALIA S.P.A. € 276.934 37.320 € 416.914 56.499 7 DOWNTON ABBEY 24/10/2019 GBR UNIVERSAL S.R.L. € 274.390 38.039 € 1.906.881 287.216 8 DOCTOR SLEEP 31/10/2019 USA WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A. € 270.941 37.518 € 661.626 91.403 9 TUTTO IL MIO FOLLE AMORE 24/10/2019 ITA 01 DISTRIBUTION € 261.930 38.170 € 1.333.333 209.551 10 SCARY STORIES TO TELL IN THE DARK 24/10/2019 USA NOTORIOUS PICT. S.P.A. € 43.098 5.800 € 500.010 72.864 Crazy success for Addams Family and the local comedy Il Giorno più bello del mondo. That didn't hurt Joker, but certainly did some damage to Maleficent. Expected big fall for Doctor Sleep, the kind of movie that would have made sub-1.5M total on any weekend outside Halloween. Terminator is the second best movie in the chart, but that's not what makes movies get good grosses. And certainly not in a country like Italy where sci-fi doesn't sell.

Halloween: 1 LA FAMIGLIA ADDAMS (THE ADDAMS FAMILY) 31/10/2019 USA EAGLE PICTURES S.P.A. € 413.277 64.210 € 413.277 64.210 2 DOCTOR SLEEP 31/10/2019 USA WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A. € 337.397 46.938 € 337.397 46.938 3 IL GIORNO PIU' BELLO DEL MONDO 31/10/2019 ITA VISION DISTRIBUTION € 324.520 48.517 € 324.520 48.517 4 JOKER 03/10/2019 USA WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A. € 298.913 40.855 € 25.124.221 3.601.913 5 MALEFICENT - SIGNORA DEL MALE (MALEFICENT - MISTRESS OF EVIL) 17/10/2019 USA WALT DISNEY S.M.P. ITALIA € 280.564 41.108 € 8.629.134 1.312.028 6 L'UOMO DEL LABIRINTO 30/10/2019 ITA MEDUSA FILM S.P.A. € 141.099 20.779 € 196.283 29.942 7 TERMINATOR: DESTINO OSCURO (TERMINATOR: DARK FATE) 31/10/2019 USA 20TH CENTURY FOX ITALIA S.P.A. € 115.554 16.053 € 115.554 16.053 8 DOWNTON ABBEY 24/10/2019 GBR UNIVERSAL S.R.L. € 89.042 13.272 € 1.628.893 248.657 9 TUTTO IL MIO FOLLE AMORE 24/10/2019 ITA 01 DISTRIBUTION € 67.064 10.370 € 1.067.111 170.741 10 SCARY STORIES TO TELL IN THE DARK 24/10/2019 USA NOTORIOUS PICT. S.P.A. € 66.456 9.071 € 433.808 As expected Addams Family and Doctor Sleep won the day. Joker and Maleficent benefited too thanks to their dark theme. Dark Fate is an epic fail. Not surprising after that disastrous screen count.

Dark Fate indeed... At this point it may just do Alita's (bad) numbers (2.1M total). Weak Wednesday, likely due to people waiting for the long weekend before going to theaters. Angelina is back at #1 with 192K, while Joker dropped both in rank and in gross, to 186K.

I didn't care about Blade Runner doing so poorly and losing money, but I'm genuinely depressed about this movie's performance. Thought it would at the very least beat Alita.

Strong dailies for Joker. 193K yesterday, down only 33% from last week and again #1 for the day (Maleficent stopped at 182K). Sub-30% drop this weekend is locked, sub-25% very very likely.

WEEKEND RESULTS (24/27 OCTOBER) RANK MOVIE WEEKEND GROSS HOLD TOTAL GROSS CONVERTED TO NA 1 Maleficent 2 2.448.371 -41% 7.719.579 49.00/154.40 2 Joker 2.019.111 -45% 24.208.052 40.40/484.20 3 Downtown Abbey 1.165.472 NEW 1.166.316 22.30/22.30 4 Tutto il mio Folle Amore (It) 763.185 NEW 763.185 15.30/15.30 5 One Piece Stampede (Jap) 395.163 NEW 398.994 7.90/8.00 6 Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark 281.166 NEW 281.166 5.60/5.60 7 Dem Horizont so nah (Ger) 265.260 NEW 265.260 3.00/8.40 8 Ready or Not 243.763 NEW 243.866 4.90/4.90 9 Gemini Man 223.904 -57% 2.100.036 4.50/42.00 10 Se Mi Vuoi Bene (It) 181.682 -66% 815.030 3.60/16.30 The weekend was just up 7.80% from the same weekend last year. 2019's lead on 2018 has slightly increased to 15.64%. Last year we just had Halloween’s disappointing opening (1,2M) but the holdovers were again much stronger than this weekend’s (the 10 film would have placed above Scary Stories). The weekend turned out weaker than what Friday suggested, obviously because of the relatively high temperatures. Maleficent held pretty well all things considered, and with next weekend being inflated, passing Far From Home for a sure spot in the top 10 of the year look basically locked. Best comparison is Dumbo, which had a 2.93M 2nd weekend for a cume of 7.47M, but that weekend was greatly inflated by bad weather and in fact the movie collapsed the weekend after. Predicting a 13 million finish for Jolie. Joker’s hold was fine, but certainly not what it’s required to get to the magical 30M mark or even pass last year’s phenomenon (Bohemian Rhapsody) at 29M. It’s still on people’s mouth and competition is going to be weak in the next weeks, so Endgame isn’t safe yet at 30.3M. Hoping for this weekend to be covered with dark clouds. Among the bunch of new releases, only Downtown Abbey posted a solid number. Scary Stories did pretty bad considering that we’re close to Halloween and that even B-movie horrors don’t have a hard time approaching the million total. Maybe people are just waiting for Doctor Sleep? This coming weekend is, as already siad, apparently going to be a very very inflated weekend. Halloween + holidays from Friday to Sunday + bad weather across the country for about 4/5 of the time (hopefully!) + lack of a huge opener = Maleficent and Joker possibly remaining flat. My guess is: 1) Maleficent > 2.6M (+6%) 2) Addams Family > 1.9M 3) Joker > 1.65M (-18%) 4) Terminator > 1.55M 5) Doctor Sleep > 1.20M

Yes we do. Movies usually get a noticeable bump on Halloween, though not a huge one. Falling on a Thursday, I'd say Joker and Maleficent should get slight increases instead of 30/40% drops. Addams Family should open well but fall hard after the weekend and Terminator...well, I don't know what to expect but if it follows the countries where it already opened...a sub-1.5M weekend looks to be more likely than not. Weekend summary this evening. Been busy these days.