Omni

F@@@@@@k Genysis!

Three-Day Domestic Opening Weekend: 141M Domestic Total: 495M OS-Total: 885M Worldwide Total: 1.38B

The sunny weather with pre-summer temperatures (20/25°C) had to do some damage at some point. Joker dropped 25% to "only" 584K and even Maleficent decreased (-8% to 850K), which is quite rare for a family movie. Joker now needs no more than a 20% drop next weekend to keep the 30M alive. Schools are closed Fri-to-Sun and Thursday is Halloween, so it can't be ruled out.

Yeah, it's odd how some still think that the billie is not a sure thing yet. It has run between "very likely" and "basically locked" since that second weekend WW hold. Predicting 330/340M domestically and 710/720M overseas. Should challenge Aladdin and get right between the two Dark Knights. Could have beaten TDKR with a better third weekend hold dom.

Pretty sure DC will gain a lot in the next years. Guess Toy Story 4 isn't in the top 10 animation lists because it was released too late. Though I thought it came out before The Lion King.

The superhero genre kind of ruined people's interest towards sci-fi (which has never been that high btw).

Very good for Joker, in line with my optmistic projection that would make it finish with 29M+. Also, it's dropping 40% on its 4th week in Italy on a sunny weekend! Maleficent 2's Friday increase was strong enough to limit the damage over the weekend. Also, nice recovery for Downtown Abbey after a flat Friday. 395K for an increase just above 100%.

Frozen 2 Terminator Wonder Woman 2 Soul Jumanji Mulan Little Women The Call of the Wild Artemis Fowl Black Christmas

They're all useful posts 👌

Thursday numbers (25/10/19) 1 MALEFICENT - SIGNORA DEL MALE (MALEFICENT - MISTRESS OF EVIL) 17/10/2019 USA WALT DISNEY S.M.P. ITALIA € 238.262 38.319 € 5.509.169 836.624 2 JOKER 03/10/2019 USA WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A. € 231.372 34.214 € 22.420.141 3.221.971 3 DOWNTON ABBEY 24/10/2019 GBR UNIVERSAL S.R.L. € 198.833 30.062 € 198.994 30.079 4 ONE PIECE STAMPEDE - IL FILM 24/10/2019 JPN KOCH MEDIA S.R.L. € 156.395 20.114 € 160.226 20.510 5 TUTTO IL MIO FOLLE AMORE 24/10/2019 ITA 01 DISTRIBUTION € 58.907 9.873 € 58.907 9.873 6 SCARY STORIES TO TELL IN THE DARK 24/10/2019 USA NOTORIOUS PICT. S.P.A. € 33.839 5.273 € 33.839 5.273 7 FINCHE' MORTE NON CI SEPARI (READY OR NOT) 24/10/2019 USA 20TH CENTURY FOX ITALIA S.P.A. € 30.890 4.893 € 30.993 4.912 8 VICINO ALL'ORIZZONTE (DEM HORIZONT SO NAH) 24/10/2019 DEU M2 PICTURES S.R.L. € 29.457 4.465 € 29.457 4.465 9 GEMINI MAN 10/10/2019 USA 20TH CENTURY FOX ITALIA S.P.A. € 23.143 3.821 € 1.899.585 288.558 10 ROYAL OPERA HOUSE 2019-2020 08/10/2019 GBR NEXO DIGITAL S.P.A. € 21.571 2.046 € 61.917 5.588 Big stumble for Maleficent 2, which is down more than 40% from OD. It may seem a pretty good hold, but family movies here often tend to get a 2nd Thursday hold better than their 2nd weekend hold, and a 2nd weekend hold that is better than the others (as long as weather doesn't play a role). Joker held well on Thursday and is now down 50.5% from its previous Thursday. To bring the percentage down to 40% it needs to finally get a solid Friday rise, around 70%. Good debuts for Downtown Abbey and One Piece Stampede. The former may even get close to a 2M OW if it's not frontloaded.

Maleficent gets an opening week of 5.264.199 euros and 796.952 admissions. On Wednesday it was up 16% from Tuesday (394K). Joker is now at 22.184.309 and 3.186.873 admissions. On Wednesay it at last increased, +12% for a 320K day. Still down more than 50% from last week, though.

+10% for Maleficent on Tuesday. Unfortunately, Joker just remained flat and it's down 53% from last week.

Maleficent 2 wins Monday with 308K (a mediocre 81% drop from Sunday), while Joker is second at 285K (-76%, down mediocre hold too, down almost 50% from previous Monday). The day being sunny pretty much everywhere sure didn't help. Hopefully some good jumps today.

First, that "probably" is certainly out of place. Second...you're selling apples at the fish market.

WEEKEND RESULTS (17/20 OCTOBER) RANK MOVIE WEEKEND GROSS HOLD TOTAL GROSS CONVERTED TO NA 1 Maleficent 2 4.162.897 NEW 4.162.897 83.30/ 83.30 2 Joker 3.665.988 -39.5% 21.217.674 73.30/424.40 3 Se mi vuoi bene (It) 535.591 NEW 535.591 10.70/10.70 4 Gemini Man 515.931 -46% 1.764.847 10.30/35.30 5 Abominable 364.876 -26% 1.822.274 7.30/36.40 6 Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood 213.946 -52% 11.619.640 4.30/232.20 7 La verité (Fr) 150.879 -30% 420.613 3.00/8.40 8 Metallica & San Francisco Symphony 144.271 NEW 144.271 2.90/2.90 9 The Kill Team 124.829 NEW 124.829 2.50/2.50 10 The Informer 119.763 NEW 119.763 2.40/2.40 The weekend was up 47.84% from the same weekend last year. 2019's lead on 2018 has increased to a freaking 15.43%. Last year we had A Star is Born's second weekend and Venom's third as the highest grosses, while the biggest opener was The Happytime Murders. Big difference. Maleficent 2 did very good. Its 4-day debut is just 3% below the 4.3 millions collected by the original. Legs won't be as good, as #1 opened on a Wednesday, had a holiday right after its OW and was helped by summer weekdays - but the lack of direct competition until Frozen 2, Halloween and the fact Disney LA movies tend to get solid multipliers close to 3x or higher suggest that Far From Home's 11.7M gross will be beaten and that Maleficent will get a spot in the top 10 of the year when all is said and done. Impressive. Joker narrowly managed a drop in the 30's, and while this is not as good as Inside Out's 28% drop, it's still great considering how strong Maleficent was and how "poorly bad" the weather was. Inside Out added 6.60 million euros after a 3.88M 3rd weekend (which is still the 2nd highest 3rd weekend ever for a Hollywood film after Avatar), so that would put Joker a tad lower than 28 millions. Considering Inside Out faced Hotel Transylvania on weekend #4 and had worse weekdays, it's relatively safe to assume Joker will end its run above 28 millions. Gemini Man is performing on par with NA, while Abominable surprisingly held very well against Jolie. Long Shot, which opened higher than expected last weekend, quickly balanced that by losing 3/4 of its audience, and will disappear from theaters in a few days. This week we have Downtow Abbey, the re-release of Shining and, for those who care, Once Piece Stampede. Maleficent and Joker should have no trouble keeping the top 2 spots, and Downtown Abbey looks locked for the remaining place in the podium.

Of course it did! Guess it's what was needed to start perceiving the movie as a phenomenon. In fact, Joker's OD was already crazy good. Sunday has been a tad weaker than expected. It was 24°C here, while it was supposed to be a rainy weekend until a few days back. That brought relatively weak holds. But that also means that Joker's 3.67M 3rd weekend was just very slightly inflated, making another good hold next weekend possible. 1 MALEFICENT - SIGNORA DEL MALE (MALEFICENT - MISTRESS OF EVIL) 17/10/2019 USA WALT DISNEY S.M.P. ITALIA € 1.646.914 238.284 € 4.162.898 605.353 2 JOKER 03/10/2019 USA WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A. € 1.190.722 157.750 € 21.217.674 3.028.745 3 SE MI VUOI BENE 17/10/2019 ITA MEDUSA FILM S.P.A. € 217.332 33.266 € 535.592 82.165 4 IL PICCOLO YETI (ABOMINABLE) 03/10/2019 USA UNIVERSAL S.R.L. € 200.612 30.688 € 1.822.275 294.731 5 GEMINI MAN 10/10/2019 USA 20TH CENTURY FOX ITALIA S.P.A. € 181.427 25.546 € 1.764.848 264.602 6 C'ERA UNA VOLTA A...HOLLYWOOD (ONCE UPON A TIME IN...HOLLYWOOD) 18/09/2019 USA WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A. € 72.598 9.603 € 11.619.640 1.668.396 7 LE VERITA' (LE VERITE') 10/10/2019 FRA BIM DISTRIB. S.R.L. € 56.397 8.687 € 420.614 68.851 8 A SPASSO COL PANDA (THE BIG TRIP) 10/10/2019 RUS M2 PICTURES S.R.L. € 53.745 8.220 € 278.785 44.581 9 THE KILL TEAM 17/10/2019 USA EAGLE PICTURES S.P.A. € 42.815 6.187 € 124.830 18.376 10 THE INFORMER - TRE SECONDI PER SOPRAVVIVERE 17/10/2019 USA ADLER ENTERTAINMENT S.R.L. € 39.743 5.723 € 119.764 17.511 +15% for Maleficent and -8.5% for Joker.

Using euros, 30.28 is Endgame's total gross. Joker will be at 21.25 (+/-0.1) once the weekend actuals are released. Assuming everything goes right and the optimistic scenario I suggested a few posts before comes true, it will make 1.1M on weekdays #3 + 2.2 on weekend #4 > 24.55 0.6M on weekdays #4, + 1.6 on weekend #5 > 26.75 Then a 55% drop on weekend 6 (#5 will be inflated) > 0.75M weekend and 27.8/27.9 total. Total gross would be in the 29/30M range. As you can see, the chance of getting to Endgame is very very slim, and that's why I said a 4+ weekend was required to keep the Endgame dream realistically alive. Unfortunately this weekend turned out to be less rainy than expected, and we're not getting much rain in the next 10 days.

Oh yeah. Yesterday Joker passed Infinity War, Spider Man 2 and the first Spider Man to become the 2nd highest superhero movie ever in the market. Took it seventeen days.

Doubtful, as this is not how Italy works. Even Inside Out started to drop hard starting from weekend #4 (though that was initially due to Hotel Transylavia 2 opening) and even an incredibly leggy movie like Bohemian Rhapsody managed to get great holds later in its run only because of Christmas and Golden Globe/Oscars. As long as a movie isn't perceived as the movie to see, it starts to fall hard. That said, it's not impossible for Joker to keep good holds for another month or more. The main remaining options for teens/adults in the next two weeks are Downtown Abbey, Doctor Sleep (which opens earlier here) and Terminator. The first will open below Joker's 4th weekend and will appeal mainly to the ones who like the series and Doctor Sleep shouldn't do much business if Halloween couldn't even get to 3.5M total (approx 70M in NA). The biggest threat may be Terminator, which opens on Joker's 5th weekend and could exceed 5M (Genysis did 2.8, but it was Genysis). That weekend is going to be considerably inflated by Halloween and schools being close on FSS, If it can survive until early November - meaning 40% drop next weekend and <=30% drop on the Halloween one, it will be at 3.7*0.6*0.7=1.55+ with 2 weeks of very weak competition ahead and a PTA that will be enough to keep a good amount of screens until Anna and Elsa come out.

The story of the weekend is that Maleficent is headed for a a debut in line with the original. It's at 2.46 on Saturday, and it should get a 10/35% jump today, meaning a 1.6/1.9 Sunday for a 4.05/4.40 total. The first debuted with 4.3 millions. Joker will, I think, drop less than 40% over the weekend. Which is very good for Italy but unfortunately worse than Inside Out's -28%.

I'm really surprised to see Maleficent getting a better bump on Friday. It needed to be the other way round. If Joker really makes "just" 3.4M or so over the weekend as RJ predicts, it's going to finish at 26/27 millions.

Full Thursday numbers: 1 JOKER 03/10/2019 USA WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A. € 468.310 70.120 € 18.018.758 2.600.898 2 MALEFICENT - SIGNORA DEL MALE (MALEFICENT - MISTRESS OF EVIL) 17/10/2019 USA WALT DISNEY S.M.P. ITALIA € 406.786 61.960 € 406.786 61.960 3 GEMINI MAN 10/10/2019 USA 20TH CENTURY FOX ITALIA S.P.A. € 53.312 8.803 € 1.302.228 199.088 4 SE MI VUOI BENE 17/10/2019 ITA MEDUSA FILM S.P.A. € 31.755 5.488 € 31.755 5.488 5 C'ERA UNA VOLTA A...HOLLYWOOD (ONCE UPON A TIME IN...HOLLYWOOD) 18/09/2019 USA WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A. € 19.875 2.947 € 11.425.568 1.642.579 6 MIO FRATELLO RINCORRE I DINOSAURI 05/09/2019 ITA EAGLE PICTURES S.P.A. € 12.942 3.439 € 2.095.028 340.583 7 THE KILL TEAM 17/10/2019 USA EAGLE PICTURES S.P.A. € 12.201 2.033 € 12.201 2.033 8 LE VERITA' (LE VERITE') 10/10/2019 FRA BIM DISTRIB. S.R.L. € 11.953 2.166 € 281.596 47.300 9 THE INFORMER - TRE SECONDI PER SOPRAVVIVERE 17/10/2019 USA ADLER ENTERTAINMENT S.R.L. € 11.911 1.952 € 11.911 1.952 10 PSICOMAGIA - UN'ARTE PER GUARIRE (PSYCHOMAGIE, UN ART POUR GUERIR) 08/10/2019 FRA MESCALITO FILM € 11.772 1.488 € 91.318 11.568 The site got an update, and so the chart 2.0 now shows also the current cume of the movie and the relative admissions. As I said, the most realistic goal was to remain above 450K, and Joker did it. It also managed to keep the top spot against Maleficent, which did more than decently. In fact here's how it compares to some other Disney LA: Cinderella > 345K OD, 5.1M weekend, 15.0M total gross Dumbo > 371K, 3.3M weekend, 11.2M total gross The Jungle Book > 427K* OD, 3.0M weekend, 10.4M total gross Maleficent > 596K OD, 4.3M weekend, 14.1M total gross * boosted by cheap ticket prices Maleficent 2 opened 1/3 lower than the former, which, though, was released in late May (=higher OD, lower weekend IM). Cinderella doesn't count as it kind of exploded on Saturday and Sunday, but Dumbo certainly looks to be a target. When including the other releases of the year, the Jolie movie needs to beat Far From Home (11.66) to be in the top 10 of the year. I see Joker winning again today, a close race on Saturday with Joker probably still at #1 and Maleficent finally getting on top on Sunday. The weekend is going to be rainy, so Joker needs to go above 4M to keep the 30M dream alive. That requires 700K+ today.

Second Thursday drop is always worse than the first. Everything below a 30% drop today is wonderful, -30/35% would be great too. The movie is fine ("fine" in order to get close to 30 millions of course, 'cause it is already moooore than just generally fine) as long as it remains above 450K. A 500K+ Thursday (<=30% drop) would make a 4M 3rd weekend (-33%) more likely than not. Anyways, Maleficent is opening and it's getting more showtimes than Joker. We'll see if it's another Bohemian/Grinch situation (Grinch getting twice as many showtimes as BR on OW, with BR doing almost 3x the gross of the Grinch) or if Maleficent 2 is really going to post big numbers.

Presale? This is Italy. Unless we have a Star Wars 7 or an Endgame, people just phisically go to the movies. Presales are usually so weak that they're never (never, not even for Endgame) tracked. Anyways, at #2 there's 2 WEATHERING WITH YOU 14/10/2019 JPN NEXO DIGITAL S.P.A. € 149.573 15.876 Up 55% from Monday, when it grossed 96K. A pretty good success for a 3-day event that ends today.

Nah, this is just Italy being Italy. It happened a lot of times in the past. Also, adult movies tend to increase way more than 50% on Fridays and often get 100%+ on Saturdays, and Joker did +32% and +72% respectively last week, so there's a lot of room to recover.