Omni

Thanks! I've been in the hospital for five weeks, and as soon as this segregation ends a new one will certainly come. Oh well. Yeah, people's behavious is more important than anything. And yesterday there were 20000 people in Venice for the Carnival. Not exactly the kind of attention one would expect under this situation. Many of them probably got caught by this collective psychosis last night and emptied the supermarkets this morning.

Lombardia closed all theaters, and the region alone represents 1/5 of the national box office. Emilia Romagna did it too, and Veneto is the next. Like in SK, some movies' release date has already been delayed. In the areas more hit by the virus, the box office was down 80/90% from Saturday, which was already down from the norm. Btw, it's 229/6 now. ...

Guess a WW-Ch total gross above Detective Pikachu is close to locked, Or at least it would be if there wasn't a potential pandemic wandering around Europe.

Yeah, this has started to explode earlier and worse than expected. Next week universities around where I live are closed, football matches are suspended. A good friend of mine decided to skip tonight's disco and Monday's theater, and I'm pretty sure most are thinking the same. Panic was created in just a couple of days. On Friday, the box office was up 8% from the same Friday last year. Saturday is down 30%, and it can't be all attributed to Carnival and the relative hot weather. Pretty sure today there are going to be abnormal decreases from Sat to Sun. The virus has also so far hit the north, which is where movies do most of their business.

Thursday numbers - aka Bad Numbers For Life 1 GLI ANNI PIU' BELLI 13/02/2020 ITA 01 DISTRIBUTION € 166.756 28.347 € 3.792.151 607.825 2 BAD BOYS FOR LIFE 20/02/2020 USA WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A. € 148.303 22.704 € 148.330 22.708 3 PARASITE 07/11/2019 KOR ACADEMY TWO DISTR. S.R.L. € 86.804 14.061 € 4.621.441 724.900 4 IL RICHIAMO DELLA FORESTA (THE CALL OF THE WILD) 20/02/2020 USA WALT DISNEY S.M.P. ITALIA € 65.216 10.990 € 65.216 10.990 5 SONIC - IL FILM (SONIC THE HEDGEHOG) 13/02/2020 USA 20TH CENTURY FOX ITALIA S.P.A. € 47.719 8.659 € 1.743.084 284.573 6 CATTIVE ACQUE (DARK WATERS) 20/02/2020 USA EAGLE PICTURES S.P.A. € 29.085 5.079 € 29.085 5.079 7 ODIO L'ESTATE 30/01/2020 ITA MEDUSA FILM S.P.A. € 28.616 4.641 € 7.103.396 1.091.399 8 LA MIA BANDA SUONA IL POP 20/02/2020 ITA MEDUSA FILM S.P.A. € 26.862 4.712 € 26.862 4.712 9 BIRDS OF PREY (E LA FANTASMAGORICA RINASCITA DI HARLEY QUINN) 06/02/2020 USA WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A. € 15.263 2.436 € 2.243.678 333.688 10 1917 23/01/2020 GBR 01 DISTRIBUTION € 13.779 2.385 € 6.473.698 999.062 Well, hard to imagine a bigger disaster. Gli Anni Più Belli remains on top, headed for a likely sub-2M weekend. Bad Boys 3 did quite good to be honest and may get a debut above 1.5M (200k adm), though that doesn't mirror the general increase the movie has had over BB2 both dom and os. Parasite's hold looks nothing more than solid. Call of the Wild will have a hard time even reaching the million mark (guess the CGI dog hurt it) and only managed to destroy Sonic's legs. Local comedy La Mia Banda Suona il Pop flopped. Aaand the comical note: Cats debuts OUTSIDE THE TOP 20 (#21) with 2790 euros. Average of 3/4 people per screen. Insane.

Okay, just 110 screens for Cats, basically a bit more than a limited release. Call of the Wild is released in 500 screens, Bad Boys 3 gets 450 and local comedy La Mia Banda Suona il Pop gets 400. This is a weekend with a potential of four 2M+ (300K adm) movies. Could even be zero though.

Pixar being weak overseas is mostly a false myth. Incredibles 2 and TS4 both did well over 600M overseas with awful exchange rates, and both Coco and Inside Out did just great considering they're original. That said, there is no Pixar movie among the top 7 animated movie of all time overseas. Top 10 Frozen 2 > 975M Frozen > 880M Minions > 823M DM3 > 770M Ice Age 4 > 716M Ice Age 3 > 690M Zootopia > 683M TS3 > 654M TS4 > 639M I2 > 634M A few relevant facts: * 6 of those 7 movies at the top belong to only 3 franchises and 6 of them are sequels * When TS3 was released, it was the #2 all-time os grosser just behind IA3 * Pixar gets pretty much ignored in China, which is something a little troubling nowadays; just switch the China gross of DM3 and TS4, and the latter is on par if not higher than the former * Pixar's sequels are not confirmed the week after the last chapter of the franchise comes out, but they get into production years later - with obvious consequences on both quality and quick box office revenues (much easier to beat the iron while it's hot) * Pixar often makes films that clearly are not meant to get a sequel, while Blue Sky and Illumination do the exact opposite (and we all know that you usually needs the third sequel of a beloved franchise if you want to go really really high) * Pixar is extremely consistent, and does not fully rely on a single franchise to top the chart (take IA out of Blue Sky and you get nothing; take the Minions out of Illumination and you don't have much left)

Ok, it looks like Cats is indeed releasing tomorrow. That said, it is also confirmed that the distribution is really dumping it: Uci Cinemas theaters have all their showings listed till next Wednesday, and Cats is getting only 1 showing per day (or 2 somewhere on Sunday). Guess a debut outside the top 10 is possible, with maybe 100/150K over the weekend. Also, Call of the Wild is receiving a lot of showtimes. Not sure if that's enough for a top 3 placement, but at least it's a good sign.

Us Avengers Endgame The concept of "overrated movie" makes perfectly sense, at least as long as someone tries to recognize a film's positive and negative aspects while keeping their personal attitude aside as much as possible. For example, I thought that Widows was overall a good product, despite the fact I got bored the whole time and I'll never see it again. Or again, Terminator DF is one of my favourite films of 2019 but I have no problem admitting that anyone who puts it into the yearly top ten is just wrong if they're trying to do a "best" list. Of course being really "objective" is just utopistic, but one has to try. So, if a banal, unsteady and occasionally goofy or ridiculous horror movie that never manages to be scary gets a lot of praise just because of the trite social content it metaphorically shows to the audience, I say that movie is overrated. Same for a derivative, uninspired, linear movie with a lazy script and lot of plot holes which, though, is filled with fan service. These are the main options that come to my mind.

It's definitely going to flop. The question is...what the heck are they doing with this movie? It's still listed everywhere as a Feb 20th release, but it doesn't look like it. Space Cinema (#1 theater chain in Italy) doesn't even list it among their upcoming movies, and they're even listing freaking Charlie's Angels which comes out in a few weeks and will be a failure. Uci (2nd biggest chain) for some reason is already selling tickets for the movie, but for the 9/10/11 March frame only, which makes me think they have so little faith in the movie that they'll treat it as one of those "3-day events released on weekdays and give that short window to the few people that will show some sort of interest in it. If that's the case, I'm seeing Italy contributing for 200/300K to the movie's total. Weekend numbers (14/17 February) 1. GLI ANNI PIU’ BELLI (ITA) – € 2.896.109 (445.778 we admissions) 817 screens / 3.545 avg – Tot. € 2.898.088 (446.104 tot adm) // NEW 2. SONIC – € 1.445.090 (229.792) 457/3.162 – Tot. € 1.445.090 (229.792) // NEW 3. PARASITE – € 1.401.083 (209.797) 411/3.409 – Tot. € 4.142.955 (641.090) // +321% 4. ODIO L’ESTATE (ITA) – € 980.701 (147.974) 445/2.204 – Tot. € 6.907.013 (1.057.113) // -46% 5. BIRDS OF PREY – € 597.089 (86.358) 393/1.519 – Tot. € 2.104.291 (310.204) // -50% 6. DOLITTLE – € 586.384 (92.144) 366/1.602 – Tot. € 4.313.119 (681.488) // -50% 7. 1917 – € 451.440 (67.069) 342/1.320 – Tot. € 6.350.264 (976.810) // -49% 8. FANTASY ISLAND – € 351.059 (52.210) 262/1.340 – Tot. € 351.059 (52.210) // NEW 9. JOJO RABBIT – € 199.387 (29.429) 183/1.090 – Tot. € 3.784.543 (594.068) // -49% 10. JUST MERCY – € 114.843 (17.412) 115/999 – Tot. € 1.217.083 (192.236) // -66% A pretty decent weekend overall, up 8.29% from the same weekend last year. 2020 now up 22.31% from 2019. February is still down from last year (-5%) but the gap is reducing. Sonic posted a respectable opening, though definitely sub-par relatively to the ones it got in NA and in Western Europe. The movie lost by a wide margin the competition against last year's Detective Pikachu (2.4M OW), though it should get better legs (Pikachu did like 2.2x its OW, very poor). Parasite is, just like in many other countries, the story of the weekend. Crazy high jump and 2nd best PSA after Gli Anni Più Belli. If it performs in line with the average Oscar winner, it should hold well next weekend, and then freefall quickly. Projecting a 6M finish, more than enough to get in the top 20 of the year. As expected, the other Oscar-related products fell quite hard, especially Just Mercy has it was the weaker of the bunch in terms of relevance. Little Women stands at 5.798M after a 65K weekend. Joker up to 29.555.574 after a 32K weekend. Birds of Prey's hold is pretty bad, as it should be the best one of its run if it follows the norm. It should still beat Dark Phoenix in the end (500K 2nd weekend, 1.8M total, 2.75M finish) though I wouldn't bet anything on a 3+ finish. Next weekend we have Bad Boys For Life and Call of the Wild. Should be a decent weekend.

The Lion King is likely more profitable from theaters. Frozen 2 definitely more profitable pretty much anywhere else.

VD numbers 1 GLI ANNI PIU' BELLI 13/02/2020 ITA 01 DISTRIBUTION € 563.718 90.436 € 818.939 132.250 2 PARASITE 07/11/2019 KOR ACADEMY TWO DISTR. S.R.L. € 271.459 42.372 € 3.147.713 495.650 3 ODIO L'ESTATE 30/01/2020 ITA MEDUSA FILM S.P.A. € 212.533 33.174 € 6.199.175 952.259 4 SONIC - IL FILM (SONIC THE HEDGEHOG) 13/02/2020 USA 20TH CENTURY FOX ITALIA S.P.A. € 188.755 32.070 € 308.011 52.436 5 BIRDS OF PREY (E LA FANTASMAGORICA RINASCITA DI HARLEY QUINN) 06/02/2020 USA WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A. € 148.807 22.450 € 1.710.284 255.025 6 DOLITTLE 30/01/2020 USA UNIVERSAL S.R.L. € 112.429 18.429 € 3.874.118 613.985 7 1917 23/01/2020 GBR 01 DISTRIBUTION € 95.695 15.066 € 6.038.390 932.319 8 FANTASY ISLAND 13/02/2020 USA WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A. € 89.852 14.011 € 117.349 18.575 9 JOJO RABBIT 16/01/2020 USA WALT DISNEY S.M.P. ITALIA € 35.066 5.482 € 3.639.584 573.632 10 IL DIRITTO DI OPPORSI (JUST MERCY) 30/01/2020 USA WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A. € 28.402 4.500 € 1.139.258 180.763 Great jump for Parasite, which now has a decent shot at beating Sonic over the weekend. The videogame adaptation either just received a very small boost from the "holiday" (which is definitely possible) or was somehow frontloaded. Today's holds are going to be all over the place.

I honestly don't know if a future film can pass all those three final figures (which basically means passing the adm total). I find it close to impossible. But Frozen already beat the dollar figure of SA by half a million.

Thursday numbers (13/02) 1 GLI ANNI PIU' BELLI 13/02/2020 ITA 01 DISTRIBUTION € 251.682 41.248 € 253.660 41.574 2 PARASITE 07/11/2019 KOR ACADEMY TWO DISTR. S.R.L. € 132.528 21.635 € 2.874.400 452.928 3 SONIC - IL FILM (SONIC THE HEDGEHOG) 13/02/2020 USA 20TH CENTURY FOX ITALIA S.P.A. € 118.182 20.176 € 118.182 20.176 4 ODIO L'ESTATE 30/01/2020 ITA MEDUSA FILM S.P.A. € 59.362 9.789 € 5.985.473 918.889 5 BIRDS OF PREY (E LA FANTASMAGORICA RINASCITA DI HARLEY QUINN) 06/02/2020 USA WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A. € 54.011 8.686 € 1.561.212 232.532 6 1917 23/01/2020 GBR 01 DISTRIBUTION € 43.727 7.491 € 5.942.164 917.136 7 DOLITTLE 30/01/2020 USA UNIVERSAL S.R.L. € 34.568 6.146 € 3.761.208 595.472 8 FANTASY ISLAND 13/02/2020 USA WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A. € 27.380 4.545 € 27.380 4.545 9 JOJO RABBIT 16/01/2020 USA WALT DISNEY S.M.P. ITALIA € 19.101 3.467 € 3.604.013 568.043 10 MEMORIE DI UN ASSASSINO - MEMORIES OF MURDER (SALINUI CHUEOK) 13/02/2020 KOR ACADEMY TWO DISTR. S.R.L. € 11.953 1.992 € 12.784 2.135 As expected, the local drama Gli Anni più Belli opened at the top with ease, and destroyed the other Italian products. It should see a pretty huge bump today. Sonic opened relatively well, certainly better than what one would have thought a few months ago. It should take the 2nd spot this weekend with 1.5M or so, the equivalent of a 30M OW in NA. Parasite will likely come in third, but that's everything but disappointing. The movie is looking at a weekend above 1M and a 200%+ rise from last weekend. If it holds well enough the weekend after, the movie will eventually enter blockbuster territory (5M+ euros). Fantasy Island failed as expected.

Crazy 50% increase for Parasite on Tuesday (usually flat from Monday here, as discount tickets are on Wednesday), and the top spot easily reached (157K, 2.56M total). This week we have Fantasy Island, Sonic and local drama Gli Anni Più Belli. If it wasn't for the latter, Parasite could even win the weekend!

Parasite up to #2 on Monday with 103k, narrowly beating the first Monday of BOP! The film could easily bump 100%+ this weekend (and maybe even close to 200%) if the theater count increase is strong enough.

My god, that pre-F2 chart was embarassing.

Hi everyone! Some serious health problems (still unresolved) have kept me away from the forum since early January. I'm back for an update. WEEKEND FIGURES (6/9 February) 1. ODIO L’ESTATE (ITA) – € 1.808.586 (273.498 adm) 634 screens /2.853 average – Tot. € 5.550.450 (842.354 total admissions) 2. BIRDS OF PREY – € 1.187.199 (169.475) 559/2.124 – Tot. € 1.187.199 (169.475) 3. DOLITTLE – € 1.166.938 (182.669) 483/2.416 – Tot. € 3.541.608 (555.525) 4. 1917 – € 884.656 (130.736) 512/1.728 – Tot. € 5.645.397 (864.976) 5. JOJO RABBIT – € 390.036 (59.965) 328/1.189 – Tot. € 3.484.374 (546.147) 6. JUST MERCY – € 334.445 (51.372) 257/1.301 – Tot. € 1.023.473 (160.023) 7. FIGLI (ITA) – € 333.612 (50.431) 276/1.209 – Tot. € 3.038.358 (476.893) 8. PARASITE – € 333.065 (49.743) 204/1.633 – Tot. € 2.296.339 (353.420) 9. JUDY – € 184.691 (28.728) 236/783 – Tot. € 580.558 (92.958) 10. ME CONTRO TE IL FILM (ITA) – € 174.524 (27.417) 247/707 – Tot. € 9.466.433 (1.529.597) The weekend was down 28.69% from the same weekend last year. The lead over 2019 - pretty much entirely built on local juggernaut Tolo Tolo (46M+ grosser) has been reduced to +25.88%. The rest of February doesn't look particularly strong either, except for a potential local hit next weekend, but at least 2019's February was pretty weak as well. Birds of Prey's opening was bad but not disastrous. For comparison, Wonder Woman opened 10% lower than that (though BOP will likely fail to reach that movie's 3.5M total gross) and Shazam! 30% higher (but got bad legs and only finished at 3.7M). BOP should challenge Dark Phoenix at 2.75M. Parasite is back in the top 10, and will definitely see a sizeable bump next weekend. May end up in blockbuster territory (5M+). Joker got a limited rerelease and was #13 with 75K and a total just a bit below 29.5 millions. Considering the dvd is coming out this week and that it didn't win BP, Endgame is more than safe at 30.3M. Little Women out of the top 10, #11 (140K weekend and 5.7M total). Strong performance. Other (basically final) totals: * Frozen 2 >19.042.331 (2.952.318 adm) > pretty underwhelming performance, but the lack of considerable Christmas help and the fierce competition clearly hurt it; at least it barely beat the first Frozen in admissions. As edroger said a few weeks ago, Disney decided to lose a few millions from theaters to maximize the merch revenue * Il Primo Natale (15.35) and Pinocchio (14.95) both failed to beat Aladdin (15.44) in the 2019 chart; thank goodness * Star Wars: ROS > 13.234.106 (1.776.374 adm) > it dropped around 15% from TLJ, which was totally expected given how both the previous third chapters in the SW saga dropped from the second entry here * Jumanji 3 > 12.343.086 (1.745.599 adm) > big success, 20% above the previous movie; it's a little annoying, though, that it's only 30K away from beating Maleficent 2 and that it will probably miss that crap

Crappy Saturday rise for Frozen. Leaving the site (and BO numbers) again for awhile, I came back for F2, but when it comes to this movie I'm just too emotionally involved to actually enjoy its run without litterally ruining my mood the whole day every time weekend figures are relatively low or disappointing. See you all in January!

No idea how this managed such a pitiful increase on Friday in NA.

Friday 1 FROZEN II - IL SEGRETO DI ARENDELLE (FROZEN II) 27/11/2019 USA WALT DISNEY S.M.P. ITALIA € 518.382 83.226 € 9.966.730 1.554.930 2 L'IMMORTALE 05/12/2019 ITA VISION DISTRIBUTION € 504.643 72.724 € 1.167.349 167.937 3 CENA CON DELITTO - KNIVES OUT 05/12/2019 USA 01 DISTRIBUTION € 174.061 28.025 € 283.519 46.470 4 UN GIORNO DI PIOGGIA A NEW YORK (A RAINY DAY IN NEW YORK) 28/11/2019 USA LUCKY RED DISTRIB. € 126.884 20.067 € 1.779.503 282.379 5 CETTO C'E', SENZADUBBIAMENTE 21/11/2019 ITA VISION DISTRIBUTION € 55.278 8.473 € 4.426.990 667.940 6 L'UFFICIALE E LA SPIA (J'ACCUSE) 21/11/2019 COP 01 DISTRIBUTION € 43.977 7.071 € 2.453.546 389.278 7 L'INGANNO PERFETTO (THE GOOD LIAR) 05/12/2019 GBR WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A. € 39.148 6.544 € 63.610 10.744 8 MIDWAY 27/11/2019 USA EAGLE PICTURES S.P.A. € 35.846 5.525 € 839.688 128.987 9 LE MANS '66 - LA GRANDE SFIDA (FORD V. FERRARI) 14/11/2019 USA 20TH CENTURY FOX ITALIA S.P.A. € 14.268 2.058 € 2.825.557 414.124 10 PARASITE 07/11/2019 KOR ACADEMY TWO DISTR. S.R.L. € 12.296 1.816 € 1.664.829 259.885 Frozen back to the top! It's down 42% from last Friday. L'Immortale was terribly frontloaded. Should be headed for a 3M OW and then drop huge the weekend after. Knives Out is locked to open above the million and has a very slim chance at 200K admissions. Not bad. Parasite...still there!

HP is a freaking beast. Every time I check it on Amazon, it's in the top 10. Also, 7 titles out of 10 are Disney.

My god at L'Immortale! Who would have thought? And my god at Frozen, too, but in a totally different way. High 40's drop from Wednesday, and 45%+ drop from last Thursday. Its dailies have been worryingly close to Dory's, not a good sign at all.

Possible, but not that likely. Among the titles listed above, only Inside Out managed a >3x multiplier after its 2nd weekend, and that was a crazy phenomenon. Not saying Frozen won't get there, that total is in play, but it has to hold well this weekend (4.5M euros or more) and then remain among the highest titles the weekend before Christmas.

Glad to see Frozen 2 actually got a 3+ Sunday with actuals, just like what happened when TLK opened. Some second weekends of recent Disney LA/animated hits (not counting what's too high - TLK - or what's too low - Aladdin, I2 - or what was messed up by Christmas dailies - Moana): Despicable Me 3 > 3.61M (-33%), 11.24M cume, 18.00M total gross Beauty and the Beast > 4.70 (-32%), 14.13 cume, 20.50 total gross Finding Dory > 3.04 (-45%), 10.08 cume, 15.18 total gross Inside Out > 5.40 (-5%), 13.58 cume, 25.41 total gross Minions > 4.84 (-32%), 15.49 cume, 23.45 total gross Cinderella > 3.73 (-28%), 10.30 cume, 15.02 total gross Excluding the Dory letdown and the Inside Out phenomenon, unless there's some sort of holidays or highly (un)favorable weather these big family movies drop in the low 30's on weekend 2. That would put a reasonable projection for F2 at 4.6/4.8M. Competition shoul help as it's really non-existent. No animated film in the top 10, 2 local comedies not feeling particularly dangerous and distributors not feeling confident in Knives Out, as it's receiving the same amount of showings as an average holdover. We'll see.