Omni

Ooops fixed Yeah this number for the Joker is a little alarming. Though not too much, as it's something similar to what happened to Inside Out, and to other movies as well. Inside Out for example was down 5% over the weekend and then 27% Mon-to-Mon. One could say Joker's retention is much worse, but it's also true that Inside Out's first dailies, while stronger than usual for an animated movie, were far as sensational as Joker's: a little less than an 80% drop for the former, a 50% drop for the latter. As long as the movie increases 10%+ both today and tomorrow and remains above 450K on Thursday, it's completely fine.

WEEKEND RESULTS (10/13 OCTOBER) RANK MOVIE WEEKEND GROSS HOLD TOTAL GROSS CONVERTED TO NA 1 Joker 6.047.348 -3.5% 15.511.395 120.90/ 310.20 2 Gemini Man 959.439 NEW 959.439 19.20/19.20 3 Abominable 490.041 -37% 1.386.958 9.80/27.70 4 Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood 444.904 -51% 11.286.113 8.90/225.70 5 Brave Ragazze (It) 319.766 NEW 319.766 6.40/6.40 6 Long Shot 306.361 NEW 306.361 6.10/6.10 7 The Hole in the Ground (Ir) 224.338 NEW 224.338 4.50/4.50 8 La Vérité (Fr) 215.861 NEW 218.242 4.30/4.40 9 Tuttapposto (It) 166.627 -60% 658.110 3.30/13.20 10 The Big Trip (Usa/Rus) 160.218 NEW 160.218 3.20/3.20 The weekend was up 24.59% from the same weekend last year. 2019's lead on 2018 has increased to 13.64%. Another 0.68% gained over last year, and this is always thanks to Joker and its crazy weekdays. If it can keep the momentum a little longer, Joker will become THE box office run of this year, even if it fails to beat The Lion King (which is impossible) and Endgame (which is now a 20/80). Just to put this into perspective, the only Hollywood movies that ever managed a non-Christmas second weekend above 6 millions are Avatar and The Lion King. Every other monster (Alice IW, Minions, Inside Out, Ice Age 3, Endgame, Bohemian Rhapsody) failed to go that high. So far, the Phoenix movie is making Bohemian Rhapsody's run look dull. I just can't believe what's happening. Let's use the Inside Out comparison again. The Pixar masterpiece added 11.75 millions after a 5.40M second weekend. If Joker has its legs, it will add 11.75*1.11=13.10 millions. That means a 28.60M finish. Endgame stands at 30.28. I would be cautious about this because unfortunately this weekend there's Maleficent 2, and if The Nutcracker can get close to 10 millions, Jolie surely has the potential to easily pass that mark. IF Joker somehow drops around 30% this weekend, Endgame will be in trouble. If it drops 40% it will be safe. If it somehow manages a 20% drop...well... Everything else is not interesting. About Maleficent 2, I'd go with 500/600K OD, 3/3.5M OW and 10M total. Not predicting more because of the Looking Glass.

Just?

Joker already #3 for the year, beating Aladdin's 15.43M gross in 11 days. Already at 2.2M admissions. More later. But this is like a movie opening at 125M on OW in North America and being basically flat on second weekend.

I was drawing a reasonable trajectory. With a 180M WW weekend, it's an absolute lock for 900+, very very likely to finish above the billie. It's going to slow down at some point, but past phenoma showed us that it's not happening in the first weeks of release. Also, the biggest blockbusters until Frozen 2 are Maleficent 2 and Terminator - not too threatening to be honest.

351M overseas after a 123.7 weekend. Absolute minimum is 650 millions overseas, and that's if it immediately loses its momentum. Given the WOM it's getting in most countries, one could see a 4x multiplier from this weekend, meaning 375M more. That's 725M OS. Assuming 350M from NA, we're at 1.075. Not too far away.

What the heck... I thought Batman vs Superman was the target, but it looks like this may beat Far From Home worldwide. Incredible!

Very well, its Saturday increase is on par with the one it got on OW. Now let's hope it remains about flat on Sunday. Also, the last time a non-Cameron Hollywood movie had a 2M+ SECOND Saturday outside Christmas holidays was in the month of Never-ary.

Since a sub-20% drop is locked and a sub-10% is probably happening (though not certain, it has to match last weekend's 70%+ Saturday rise), thanks to no big football match on Sunday as XO21 mentioned, I guess it's time to give back a look at Inside Out's performance, another movie that opened at the beginning of Autumn (2nd half of September in that case), had a crazy good OW around 6M, performed much better than expected on weekdays and was close to flat on weekend 2. OW: 5.70 // total 6.29 (Wed opener) 2nd weekend 5.40 (-5.5%) // total 13.58 3rd weekend 3.88 (-28%) // total 18.75 4th weekend 2.17 (-44%) // total 21.72 5th weekend 1.31 (-40%) // total 23.67 6th weekend 0.58 (-56%) // total 24.48 Assuming a weekend of 5.5/6.0M (down around 10% from its 6.26M opening), Joker will already be above 15 millions by Sunday night. Then it would need: * about a 1.8x multiplier to beat Spider Man (2002) and become the second highest grossing superhero movie ever - LOCKED * about a 1.9x multiplier to beat Beauty and the Beast as the 3rd highest grosser since February 2016 - LOCKED * about a 2.8x multiplier to beat Star Wars TFA - DOABLE * about a 3.6x multiplier to beat Endgame - VERY VERY HARD, BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE

Well, it had crazy weekdays in many places and a holiday in South Korea. In the UK chart people said theaters were unusually busy for a work day. In Italy it grossed close to 50% of OW over Mon-Wed alone. Pretty sure this is up to Wednesday.

10/10/2019 (Thursday) 1 JOKER 03/10/2019 USA WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A. € 876.301 130.376 2 GEMINI MAN 10/10/2019 USA 20TH CENTURY FOX ITALIA S.P.A. € 102.218 16.241 3 C'ERA UNA VOLTA A...HOLLYWOOD (ONCE UPON A TIME IN...HOLLYWOOD) 18/09/2019 USA WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A. € 50.309 7.607 4 HOLE - L'ABISSO (THE HOLE IN THE GROUND) 10/10/2019 IRL KOCH MEDIA S.R.L. € 27.483 4.303 5 BRAVE RAGAZZE 10/10/2019 ITA VISION DISTRIBUTION € 25.656 4.370 6 NON SUCCEDE... MA SE SUCCEDE (LONG SHOT) 10/10/2019 USA 01 DISTRIBUTION € 24.463 4.082 7 IL PICCOLO YETI (ABOMINABLE) 03/10/2019 USA UNIVERSAL S.R.L. € 22.395 4.196 8 TUTTAPPOSTO 03/10/2019 ITA MEDUSA FILM S.P.A. € 19.490 3.672 9 LE VERITA' (LE VERITE') 10/10/2019 FRA BIM DISTRIB. S.R.L. € 16.981 3.068 10 AD ASTRA 26/09/2019 USA 20TH CENTURY FOX ITALIA S.P.A. € 13.101 2.120 Well, Joker is down 15% from its crazy OD. Everything from -25% to +5% is possible over the weekend. No words. Gemini Man did decently and may reach 1 million over the 4-day frame. Slightly better than expected. Not bad for Long Shot either. Local comedy Brave Ragazze, on the other hand, failed to reach its potential. Now the question is: can Joker do what Inside Out did in 2005? Can it drop below 10%? If it does, it will have a solid chance at beating Star Wars: TFA (!!!) and even a slight chance at catching Endgame. A very small one, but still a chance. On the more conservative side, everything below a 20% drop guarantees a #2 finish in the all time superhero chart.

Terminator 2 with the biggest average!

With no Christmas holidays to help, the ceiling is around 4 times its 4-day OW, meaning 25 millions. But that's what I thought about Bohemian Rhapsody, and it made 29 millions. Keep in mind that this weekend the movie will most likely get its best hold (even the Bohemian Rhapsody phenomenon did better than its 2nd weekend hold only during Christmas holidays and after Golden Globe/Oscar nominations), So we really need to see a total above 14M by Sunday to make that 25M happen. Even after that, it needs a multiplier better than 3x (assuming a 4.5/5.0 2nd weekend), which is doable only if it can keep the status of "movie to see", c'est à dire if Maleficent 2 flops, which is, I guess, kinda unlikely . Joker's best comparison is...Inside Out. Yes! The Pixar movie opened with 6.3M in 5 days (5.7+ 4-day OW) at the beginning of Autumn and thanks to sensational WOM it made 25.3M. That, though, required a crazy sub-10% drop on its 2nd weekend. If Joker can achieve such a thing, it may even come close to Endgame thanks to its great weekdays. That said, as of now the most realistic goal is to become the secon biggest superhero movie ever, currently the 2002 Spider Man with 19.26 millions. Aladdin (15.43 and #3 movie of the year) will be certainly beaten.

Yeah, Suicide Squad is totally toasted. The Batman vs Superman crap stands at 873.6 millions. Let's go get this son of a bitch!

Why is Mientras dure la guerra a Disney movie?

08/10/19 (Tuesday) 1 JOKER 03/10/2019 USA WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A. € 1.016.982 162.113 2 ROGER WATERS US+THEM 07/10/2019 GBR NEXO DIGITAL S.P.A. € 151.081 10.687 3 C'ERA UNA VOLTA A...HOLLYWOOD (ONCE UPON A TIME IN...HOLLYWOOD) 18/09/2019 USA WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A. € 78.443 12.819 4 ROYAL OPERA HOUSE 2019-2020 08/10/2019 GBR NEXO DIGITAL S.P.A. € 40.345 3.542 5 TUTTAPPOSTO 03/10/2019 ITA MEDUSA FILM S.P.A. € 37.146 7.240 6 IL PICCOLO YETI (ABOMINABLE) 03/10/2019 USA UNIVERSAL S.R.L. € 34.441 6.602 7 AD ASTRA 26/09/2019 USA 20TH CENTURY FOX ITALIA S.P.A. € 32.830 5.677 8 RAMBO - LAST BLOOD 26/09/2019 BGR NOTORIOUS PICT. S.P.A. € 30.489 5.079 9 IO, LEONARDO 02/10/2019 ITA LUCKY RED DISTRIB. € 29.211 5.361 10 L'UOMO CHE VOLLE VIVERE 120 ANNI 08/10/2019 ITA ZENIT DISTRIBUTION € 26.101 4.277 Unbelievable. 11% increase after a nuts Monday. Is this getting to freaking 10M before FSS begings? Currently at € 8.231.751. All I know is I may go speachless...

Domestically I see it finishing between 275 and 300. That's why I omitted the "+" WW. OS it will have about a 3x multiplier.

The movie is generally very well received, opened strong in many leggy markets and has little competition over October. 500M+ OS 800M WW It will happen.

This movie is a monster. 50% drop from Sunday. Passed 1.000.000 admissions already. WEEKEND RESULTS (3/6 OCTOBER) RANK MOVIE WEEKEND GROSS HOLD TOTAL GROSS CONVERTED TO NA 1 Joker 6.263.907 NEW 6.263.907 125.30/ 125.30 2 Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood 911.249 -58% 10.563.262 18.20/211.30 3 Abominable 778.387 NEW 778.387 15.60/15.60 4 Ad Astra 411.473 -50% 1.463.452 8.20/29.30 5 Tuttapposto (It) 376.298 NEW 376.298 7.50/7.50 6 Rambo: Last Blood 317.292 -56% 1.281.383 6.30/25.60 7 Inside Leonardo (It) 288.660 NEW 323.782 5.70/6.50 8 Dora and the Lost City of Gold 233.436 -44% 719.815 4.70/14.40 9 Yesterday 194.206 -60% 811.247 3.90/16.20 10 Appena un Minuto (It) 149.440 NEW 149.440 3.00/3.00 The weekend was up 13.89% from the same weekend last year. 2019's lead on 2018 has increased to 13.96%. 0.21% gained. One could think Joker's crazy opening would have ensured a bigger gain, but holdovers have been too weak. The number 2 movie of the same weekend last year was Incredibles 2, with 1.56M vs this year's 0.91M by Tarantino. Joker is clearly the story of the weekend. Its opening is the second highest 4-day OW ever for a comic book movie, behind only Endgame. It did beat even Spider Man 3, though that movie's 5.974.247 was set when the weekend was still Fri-to-Sun. The opening is even higher than all the other Avengers movies (due to the fact they always open earlier and burn a lot of demand before the weekend) and than The Dark Knight Rises (6.95M opening, but just 3.95 OW as the rest was - again - grossed in the weekdays before. The best comparison for the movie is obviously Venom, which opened this exact weekend last year and made 3.73M OW for an 8.5M total gross. Using that movie's legs we get a 14.24M total gross (which would be around 2.1M admissions) but I'm pretty sure Joker will do better than that, thanks to the better reception. Monday's crazy hold is a great sign. I'd go with 15.5/16.0, above Aladdin's 15.43 gross but below it in admissions. And this is the top superhero top 10: 1) Avengers: Endgame > 30,27 2) Spider Man > 19,26 3) Spider Man 2 > 18,98 4) Avengers – Infinity War > 18,77 5) Spider Man 3 > 18,04 6) The Avengers > 17,97 7) Avengers – Age of Ultron > 16,55 8- Iron Man 3 > 16,09 9) The Dark Knight Rises > 14,67 10) Suicide Squad > 12,11 Joker has to make 16.10M in order to become the highest grossing non-Avengers/Raimi superhero movie ever, and the highest grossing non-Raimi sh solo ever. Everything else did awfully. Once Upon a Time's legs have been really really bad. Unfortunately, reception for the movie turned out to be pretty mixed, and Joker provided much more competition than initially forecast. The movie has now a chance of failing to beat Django's 12.05M total. Outside the top 10, The Lion King was #12 with a 139K weekend and a 37.31M total gross. It 2 dropped close to 80% and stands at 9.438.242 after a sub-50k weekend. Won't even reach 9.5M, awful legs for...it. This week we have: * Gemini Man > a probable sub-1M opener; Will Smith still is a name here, but the movie's concept won't be appealing, and having a greatly-reviewed 6.3M opener right behind doesn't help * Long Shot > even a finish in the top 10 would be a win * a few local/European movies, included the Russian animated crap The Big Trip; among these, the movie with the biggest "potential" is probably the local comedy Brave Ragazze (Good Girls), which might open at #2. Joker's goal is to keep the drop below 50%.

Nailed it! 1 JOKER 03/10/2019 USA WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A. € 1.828.475 244.680 2 IL PICCOLO YETI (ABOMINABLE) 03/10/2019 USA UNIVERSAL S.R.L. € 360.162 55.916 3 C'ERA UNA VOLTA A...HOLLYWOOD (ONCE UPON A TIME IN...HOLLYWOOD) 18/09/2019 USA WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A. € 238.148 32.277 4 TUTTAPPOSTO 03/10/2019 ITA MEDUSA FILM S.P.A. € 124.023 19.292 5 DORA E LA CITTA' PERDUTA (DORA AND THE LOST CITY OF GOLD) 26/09/2019 USA 20TH CENTURY FOX ITALIA S.P.A. € 121.259 18.984 6 AD ASTRA 26/09/2019 USA 20TH CENTURY FOX ITALIA S.P.A. € 112.394 15.978 7 IO, LEONARDO 02/10/2019 ITA LUCKY RED DISTRIB. € 106.426 15.897 8 SHAUN, VITA DA PECORA - FARMAGEDDON (A SHAUN THE SHEEP MOVIE: FARMAGEDDON) 26/09/2019 GBR KOCH MEDIA S.R.L. € 85.511 13.086 9 RAMBO - LAST BLOOD 26/09/2019 USA NOTORIOUS PICT. S.P.A. € 80.895 10.860 10 IL RE LEONE (THE LION KING) 21/08/2019 USA WALT DISNEY S.M.P. ITALIA € 74.927 11.530 A bad weekend for holdovers, a fantastic weekend for Joker. I'm leaving comparisons, projections and other stuff to the usual weekend recap.

Yeah you're right! I always forget about football. Guess 1.8M Sunday and 6.25M OW is the most likely scenario.

05/09/19 (Saturday) 1 JOKER 03/10/2019 USA WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A. € 2.113.016 280.797 2 C'ERA UNA VOLTA A...HOLLYWOOD (ONCE UPON A TIME IN...HOLLYWOOD) 18/09/2019 USA WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A. € 355.523 47.087 3 IL PICCOLO YETI (ABOMINABLE) 03/10/2019 USA UNIVERSAL S.R.L. € 283.586 44.383 4 AD ASTRA 26/09/2019 USA 20TH CENTURY FOX ITALIA S.P.A. € 169.238 23.847 5 TUTTAPPOSTO 03/10/2019 ITA MEDUSA FILM S.P.A. € 143.954 21.801 6 RAMBO - LAST BLOOD 26/09/2019 USA NOTORIOUS PICT. S.P.A. € 116.365 15.480 7 IO, LEONARDO 02/10/2019 ITA LUCKY RED DISTRIB. € 102.678 15.125 8 YESTERDAY 26/09/2019 GBR UNIVERSAL S.R.L. € 82.971 11.532 9 DORA E LA CITTA' PERDUTA (DORA AND THE LOST CITY OF GOLD) 26/09/2019 USA 20TH CENTURY FOX ITALIA S.P.A. € 80.064 12.645 10 APPENA UN MINUTO 03/10/2019 ITA 01 DISTRIBUTION € 61.714 9.372 Insane! 70%+ rise on Saturday. Third highest opening weekend in the last 2.5 years in the bag. It's also opening higher than Furious 8 (6.2M) and with a good Sunday rise (very unlikely - but a 70%+ rise on Sat was very unlikely too, so who knows) it will open on par or higher than freaking Beauty and the Beast (6.9M). Unbelievable. At this point, Aladdin may really lose its 3rd place in the yearly chart sooner than expected. And Joker has a chance at becoming the highest grossing non-Raimi/Avengers sh movie ever.

04/09/19 (Friday) 1 JOKER 03/10/2019 USA WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A. € 1.232.535 175.274 2 C'ERA UNA VOLTA A...HOLLYWOOD (ONCE UPON A TIME IN...HOLLYWOOD) 18/09/2019 USA WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A. € 182.685 25.926 3 IL PICCOLO YETI (ABOMINABLE) 03/10/2019 USA UNIVERSAL S.R.L. € 87.319 14.681 4 AD ASTRA 26/09/2019 USA 20TH CENTURY FOX ITALIA S.P.A. € 77.533 11.783 5 RAMBO - LAST BLOOD 26/09/2019 USA NOTORIOUS PICT. S.P.A. € 64.319 9.105 6 TUTTAPPOSTO 03/10/2019 ITA MEDUSA FILM S.P.A. € 61.007 10.016 7 IO, LEONARDO 02/10/2019 ITA LUCKY RED DISTRIB. € 45.813 7.320 8 YESTERDAY 26/09/2019 GBR UNIVERSAL S.R.L. € 36.244 5.487 9 APPENA UN MINUTO 03/10/2019 ITA 01 DISTRIBUTION € 23.244 3.776 10 DORA E LA CITTA' PERDUTA (DORA AND THE LOST CITY OF GOLD) 26/09/2019 USA 20TH CENTURY FOX ITALIA S.P.A. € 21.009 3.626 Aaaand a Friday increase. A terrific performance so far! It's going to be like a 5.5/6.0M OW, but if it goes above 6.1 it will be the third highest opening weekend since Fast & Furious 8 2.5 years ago (with Endgame and The King obviously being #1 and #2). Too bad it's not going to be a rainy weekend.

Jesus Christ! This is not good. This is absolutely crazy! 70% higher than Venom, which already outdid expectations, and 30%+ higher than Captain Marvel, which was one of the rare sh solo movies to go above 10M AND opened on a Wednesday (stronger weekday). Comparisons with Aquaman and FFH mustn't be considered, as the first opened in one of the two most lucrative days of the year (1st of January) and the second had an inflated OD in the middle of summer. This OD indicates that Joker has a very good chance of overtaking Far From Home (11.75) as the second highest sh movie of the year, and that Aladdin (15.42) is not safe at #3. The rest of the chart: 2 C'ERA UNA VOLTA A...HOLLYWOOD (ONCE UPON A TIME IN...HOLLYWOOD) 18/09/2019 USA WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A. € 129.841 19.255 3 RAMBO - LAST BLOOD 26/09/2019 USA NOTORIOUS PICT. S.P.A. € 53.431 7.970 4 AD ASTRA 26/09/2019 USA 20TH CENTURY FOX ITALIA S.P.A. € 48.594 7.796 5 IL PICCOLO YETI (ABOMINABLE) 03/10/2019 USA UNIVERSAL S.R.L. € 42.979 7.394 6 TUTTAPPOSTO 03/10/2019 ITA MEDUSA FILM S.P.A. € 41.545 6.816 7 IO, LEONARDO 02/10/2019 ITA LUCKY RED DISTRIB. € 31.947 5.258 8 YESTERDAY 26/09/2019 GBR UNIVERSAL S.R.L. € 20.299 3.307 9 APPENA UN MINUTO 03/10/2019 ITA 01 DISTRIBUTION € 13.855 2.377 10 DORA E LA CITTA' PERDUTA (DORA AND THE LOST CITY OF GOLD) 26/09/2019 USA 20TH CENTURY FOX ITALIA S.P.A. € 9.752 1.830 Once Upon a Time is not getting good legs at all. May just barely beat Django's 12M. Rambo surprisingly had a decent retention from OD. Not too bad for Ad Astra either. The Lion King is out of the top 10 for the first time since the 21st of August.