RamblinRed

It's sort of fun to watch the roller coaster ride in these threads each day. For how amazing run TFA is having, it is still surprising both positive and negative almost half the days and I doubt that is over. the first Sunday was a huge positive surprise to this board. Even with the overly conservative Sunday estimate there were very few suggesting 60. Then the first Monday hold and the first Wed hold in particular we positive surprises. The 2nd Saturday failing to make 50 surprised alot on this board, but the Sat jump was strong. Then you had the big drop from the 2nd Sunday estimates being another negative surprise. Then you had the NYE number being about 2-3M higher than most were assuming. Actually if it had come in with what most were thinking than the Friday's number would have been right in line with the expected incr. I'm just going to wait and see where this is Sunday. Anything above 90 I would consider a very good weekend. 95+ would be fantastic and if it had actually gotten to 100 - which many with irrational exuburence started throwing around after NYE number it would have been incredible. 90+ still gives it a chance a 1B if it slightly outperforms expectations for post-Holiday period. 95 would jump it back over 50% chance in my model. 100 would have made it fairly likely. My slightly conservative model with Fri number (34.46) has it at 985M on 3/31 (my cut off date given HV release is 4/5). My most aggressive model has it at $1.021B with this Friday's number. My most conservative model has it at 965. If I had to put odds on it as of Friday's number getting to $1B i'd give it a 40% chance. With Friday's estimate it would need to make 72.5% of Avatar's gross from Jan 2 through Mar 31 to get to $1B by that date.

So that is 14 straight days of $20M+ with 3 more likely for TFA this weekend. No other film that I did a quick check of did more than 9 20M+ days in their total run (JW and Avatar). JW had the longest previous streak with 5 (first 5 days of release).

FWIW, it needs 22.966 to get to 652. Another record though - fastest to 650 - 14 days. Took Avatar 58 Sort of amazing what a few million will do though when it ripples over 90 days in a model. I'm tracking out to Mar 31. My model had a 20.7 Thur, the 2.2M incr from my model gives an increase of over $35M over the next 90 days out to March 31.

Well you can't say Disney has tried to fudge anything. Haven't tried to fudge any records yet. They literally could take 250K from Fridays gross and apply it to Thursday and they would have the 2015 in year number - but I doubt they care. No one would really even notice moving that - it would be less than 1% of the daily take.

35% feels steep. Hope you end up being wrong on that one Baumer. I've got it at 26% drop. Looking at 12/31 for the last 10 years, usually the biggest films decrease some (though some of the smaller ones increase). But anything over about 20% is a pretty big drop. I'm dropping more due to CFB playoffs. But if it drops over 30% I would consider that pretty severe. Hoping Forbes 28.1M number for Wed is correct. That would be very strong. I would love for it to pass JW today, but it feels like it is going to come up just short and Disney has certainly showed no signs of fudging anything (which is probably partially due to Movies being just one part of a much larger empire).

As I have said before I am trying a model that blends Avatar and Sherlock. I don't expect it to hold like Avatar, but I think it can at least have slightly better than Sherlock's holds. After Jan Avatar starts to behave like a slightly better than avg winter hit, Jan is really the month that made Avatar (it made over 300M in Jan, both its Feb over Jan and Mar over Feb drops were around 65% and its Apr over Mar drop was about 85%). So for this weekend based on a 27.5 Wed I have 20.4 Thur (-26 - I have it take a big hit today due to college football playoffs being tonight. This is the first time that is the case, so I gave it closer to a X Eve drop than typical NYE drops) 34.8 Fri (+70) 34.6 Sat (-1) 20.5 Sun (-41 - I hit it hard on Sunday as well - basically split Avatar and SH) That would put it at 738.7 after Sunday with an 89.9 weekend. I also assumed SH Monday drop of 60% for an 8.2 Monday. Pretty conservative overall. If I have been too conservative today then the weekend numbers are low. currently the model has it passing Avatar first run DOM (749) on Tues and Avatar total DOM (760) on Wed. Passing Avatar adjusted on Mon 1/11. I don't expect to have a strong sense on $1B until MLK day- we simply have to wait to see what kind of post holiday legs it has. it has burnt alot of demand but I don't think it has burned through all of it yet. I'm seeing it for the 2nd time on Saturday and 75% of the co-workers and spouses I am going with have not seen it yet. I don't expect TFA's numbers to drop off a cliff, that usually only happens to movies with bad WOM, which doesn't apply here. I'd expect a pretty typical degrade after this weekend, but not something precipitous.

I have TFA finishes just a little short of $1B, but it wouldn't take much to change that (less than $15M short by end of March in my model). I'm using an approach that gives a similar need to what the Avatar+32 crowd has been saying. I'm looking at cumulative difference and what it needs to cross by end of March (if it is going to get to 1B it will get there by then - even Avatar had pretty much petered out by then making only $5M in April and less than $4M the next almost 4 months after that). Avatar's initial run made $749 with $741 coming by March. Actually it's holds after Jan are pretty typical blockbuster type holds. Jan was the month that made Avatar. So Looking at cumulative difference, TFA needs to make 258.6 more than Avatar through March to get to $1B. It is currently just under $360M ahead of Avatar as of Wednesday. So it needs to hold 259 of the 360 to get to $1B. That's a 72% hold. I do expect TFA to outgross Avatar through the weekend which will give it a little larger pot to work with. By Sunday I am projecting it will need to hold about 67% of Avatars remaining run to hit $1B - which is right in line with the Avatar +32 crowd. I have it falling just slightly more than that. But at this point small changes can have big effects. The $4M difference between est and actual last weekend changed the final number through March by over $50M (the power of compounding over time) and sent the model from predicting over $1B to less than $1B.

So after 12 days it is at 5th all-time DOM (behind TA which it will pass today) - and if you limit to just initial run it passed Titanic as well. 33rd all-time adjusted DOM (right behind Sleeping Beauty - should be between 18-21 by end of weekend) 9th all-time Worldwide.

anybody still having the issue that you can read the current page of the thrad, not all of them. When I try to go back it just spins.

Also keep in mind even though this will not stay in theaters nearly as long as Avatar- that has little effect on its final gross. Avatar's First run gross is 749.8 (they released a SE edition on Labor Day weekend that got 11M to get its final gross to 760). They basically left it in theaters forever even though it wasn't making any money It had 595.8 at the end of Jan (79.4% of gross). it made 286.9 in Jan At end of Feb it had 706.6 (94.2% of gross), if made 110.8 in Feb. At the end of Mar it had 741.1 (98.8% of gross) if made 34.5M in March At the end of April it had 746.8 (99.6% of gross) it made 5.7M in April The next 3 1/2 months it made another 3M. So even though TFA will likely exit theaters at end of march or in April as DVD comes out, it is only going to give up 2-3% of potential gross max.

So with Deadline reporting 29.3 as the estimate - that has generally been within 50-100K - that would be an excellent Tuesday, a drop in line with Avatar's second week and TFA's first week. Given the slightly depressed ticket prices due to Discount Tuesday (I had a colleague take her whole family last week on Tuesday and get $5 tickets and so they decided to do it again last night) if it holds similar to Avatar 2nd Wednesday and TFA first Wednesday that would suggest a flat Wednesday (in a best case scenario even a little gain). More people should be off today than yesterday due to NYE being Thursday so I am hoping for a flat or slight increase (though the model i am using assumes a 5% decrease). I don't think 100 is anywhere close to locked for this weekend (or 1B total - have to wait to see how it performs after the holidays to get a sense of that - though that Tuesday ups my model's prediction to 987), though an aggressive model would make it quite possible. My conservative model currently has it at 90.9M this weekend after the 29.3 Tuesday(which incidentally would be the biggest weekend ever in Jan topping American Sniper). The fact we can have a legit discussion about $1B and it not be a farce is amazing. I'd give it about a 35-40% chance of making 1B DOM, but if it somewhere squeezes out a 100M weekend that might tip it over 50%.

I've tried to create a fairly conservative model that blends Avatar and Sherlock Holmes (With a little of Edge of Darkness late). I don't expect TFA to hold close to Avatar's numbers, but I don't expect it do drop faster on avg than SH (a large Christmas movie), so it seemed as good a blend as any. FWIW, that model has it at 647.7 on Thurs and 736.8 through Sunday, passing Avatar (unadjusted) on Thur Jan 7th. (day 21). If the holds are just slightly better (about 1%) then both 650 and JW would be in play on Thur (Day 14). I did actually include a bigger than typical NY Eve Thursday drop since the college football semi-finals are NY Eve and I think that will degrade box office a little more than normal (First time they have ever been on NYE). The model would have it just missing $1B at about $975-980. Big dates estimated It currently estimates passing 600M on Day 12, today (just barely - 600.2). (JW day 36) 650 on day 15, Friday (just missing day 14) (Avatar day 58) 700 on day 16, Saturday (Avatar day 72) 750 on day 19, Tues 1/5 760 and Avatar on day 21, Thur 1/7(Avatar was pulled at 749.8 in August 2010, so based on first run 750 would be the target - got another 10.7M with a SE re-release Labor Day weekend 2010) 800 on day 24, Sun 1/10 850 on day 31, Thur 1/17 900 on day 41, Wed 1/27 950 on day 59, Sun 2/14

Will be interesting to see Monday's number. Thur/Fri/Sat the actuals were all within 1% of the estimate, on Sunday it was off by almost 10%. Those 3 days the estimate was off from the actual by an avg of less than $23,000 per day. Monday drops numbers based on movies in 2009. A 20% drop on Monday would be $34.5M. (Avatar drop) a 25% drop would be $32.4. a 30% drop would be $30.2 (Sherlock Holmes drop) a 34% drop would be $28.5 (It's Complicated drop)

This is an interesting chart. if you look at the top 3 which are recent huge blockbusters with strong WOM, they avg 44.5% of their total run in their first week. If you apply that to TFA you get approx 880M for its total run with a range of 861-903.

Merry Christmas to everyone hope everyone has a great day! I was going to be thrilled with anything over 25. That number is nuts. It's almost as much as JW's second Friday and Avatar's second Saturday. So after 7 days TFA has made 51% of Avatar's total run and 60% of JW's total run. I keep revising my conservative number up. On Tuesday I had it just below 140. After Wed it was just below 150. Now I have a hard time coming up with a number below 150 unless it simply starts to slow down considerably. Even if you assume a little smaller jump (say 90%) and a relatively flat Saturday (assuming that the high pre-sales for Xmas burn off some demand) and then maybe a 15% drop on a holiday Sunday, you still get right at 150. I'm wishing for a 160+ weekend so it will top 550 in 10 days. But we will see.

150 would make it the 12th largest weekend in Cinema history (DOM). 152.6 would make it top 10. if it could somehow really exceed everything and get 169.2 that would make it #6 behind it's own opening weekend, JW and 3 Marvel movies (TA, APU, and IM3)

yep. from a 38 flat a 35% decrease would be $24.7. I'd love to see this hit 25M today. That would simply be an insane number when the current X Eve champ is Avatar at less than $12M. It was basically halfway to JW DOM in 5 days (1M short). it will hopefully be halfway to Avatar DOM today - 7 days.

It would have to drop at least 35% to fall below 25M on X Eve. That sounds ludicrous even to say.

So TFA will have made more DOM in its first 6 days than all but 10 movies in the last 5 years made in their total runs. After X Eve it drops to 8. After Friday it drops to 4. By Saturday night 2.

No. Christmas Eve will keep it below $400 going into Friday But it could be close to $450 by Friday night.

This from Fandango LOS ANGELES - December 23, 2015 - "Star Wars: The Force Awakens" is powering up for a second historic weekend at the top of Fandango's Fanticipation movie buzz indicator with a rare 100 out of 100 points. The top Fanticipation ranking has only appeared four times previously since Fandango started ranking films in 2013, and has never appeared in back-to-back weeks for the same movie.Christmas Day 2015 also promises to be a day for the record books, as Friday's sales are on track to far outpace sales for previous Christmas Days at the same point in the Fandango sales cycle. Fandango's previous best-selling Christmas was in 2012, when "Les Miserables, "Django Unchained" and other hits were released. About Fanticipation Known for having its finger on the pulse of moviegoers, Fandango's movie buzz indicator, Fanticipation, provides statistical insight into the movies fans are planning to see in a given weekend. Fanticipation scores (based on a 1 to 100-point scale) are calculated via an algorithm of Fandango's advance ticket sales, website and mobile traffic, and social media engagement. Fanticipation is not intended as a forecast of the weekend box office; it is a snapshot of movie fan sentiment. Fandango is the nation's leading digital destination for moviegoers and fans with more than 42 million unique visitors per month.*

I'll leave it to smarter people than I to decide ticket totals. I will say that one of my colleagues went with her whole family last night to see TFA and they got discount Tuesday pricing for it. Don't know how widespread it was, but at least some chains were doing it.

I remember that article about the $100M in 24 hours. Don't remember if it was Deadline or somewhere else (I think it was DL though). It was $100M in 21 hours from 7 pm EST Thur to 1 PM PST (4 pm EST) Fri.

Don't know if this had been mentioned but i thought kinda cool. http://www.denofgeek.us/movies/star-wars/251506/star-wars-the-hidden-cameos-in-the-force-awakens "The idea of the voices was, we wanted the audience to feel - but not necessarily be presented right in your face - this idea that familiar, Force-strong voices were connecting with her," I like that McGregor recorded a little Obi-Wan for the flashback/dream sequence. And that they also used Alec Guinness. The Rey lightsaber fight was my biggest issue with the movie (actually just how quickly she picked up Jedi type skills)- but they did a good job of talking and showing that she had pretty extensive hand to hand fighting type skills. Still felt too easy for her to beat Ren - even with him injured and also not a true master himself (which i sort of liked, they didn't try to make him Vader - they made it clear he was no where near that level).

How big do people think Christmas Day could go. We know that Christmas Day was the third largest selling presale day behind Thur and Fri as of last week, so there is already alot of money in - could they shatter the record and get close to $50M?