RamblinRed

My star wars model has a $5.8MM weekend with a 63% drop on Sunday. Super Bowl hits everything hard. Even women as they go to the parties, just like the guys - they just tend to pay attention less to the game.

Will be interesting to see what the official numbers are on Monday, they are going to be low, low, low. Now reporting that this is the first winter storm in US history to dump at least 18 inches of snow on both DC and NYC. Holds next weekend could be similar to Avatar's 2nd week holds for some of these movies (thinking Revenant and TFA in particular).

actually I think their weekend estimates are too high assuming the Friday estimates are relatively accurate. This winter storm is ending up to be worse than the models initially predicted. National Weather Service has upgraded expected snowfall totals for NYC and Long island to 18-24 inches, mostly coming today. Today is basically going to be a lost day from North Carolina all the way through NYC and Long island. Will basically be no movie watching through that 700 mile stretch of the country. Most places will simply be closed with the blizzard conditions running all the way from DC to NYC. That's the heart of the population center's on the east coast. People are not even going to be able to leave their house today and tomorrow will simply be trying to dig out and watch the NFL Championship games. Wouldn't surprise me if the first couple of weekdays also suffer as some people are still going to be stuck and without power and still trying to dig out.

a huge storm like this depresses turnout because people can't get to the movies. They are stuck in their homes as it is unsafe to travel. NYC mayor this afternoon said no one should plan on driving into the city tomorrow. This is forecast to be one of the biggest winter storms in history in the mid-atlantic region (VA/MD/DC etc). It will have probably at least a 3 day effect. Some areas already are being hit with snow/ice etc. Others areas folks will be not going to movies tonight but instead stocking up on supplies for the weekend. Then you have blizzard through tomorrow for most of the big population areas in the east coast. Then Sunday people might be stuck at home waiting for roads to start being cleared. The ice is a big problem as well as that (especially combined with the high winds expected with this system) bring down trees etc and cut power.

i'd agree but the storm is going to knock this weekend down. They had a quote on Weather.com that 85 million people are under some form of warning now (blizzard, winter storm, freezing rain) - that is 1/4 of US population. Combine that with a Sunday that would be depressed anyway due to football and i'm thinking movies might do 20-25% less than expected.

RA2 $1,406,135 (-4%) Sisters 323,035 (-7%)

I don't think it is going to take much to win this weekend, maybe 15M. I'n thinking a close one between Revenant and TFA with the former just edging out the latter. latest tracking for the winter storm is not encouraging. Updated snow expectations have 18-24 inches for Philly and 12-18 for NYC both increases in total from yesterday. Also remember the NFC and AFC championship games are on Sunday so that will depress Sunday as well.

numbers are going to be low this weekend. most of the eastern seaboard is going to be out of action. From Atlanta to Charlotte up through DC, Philly and NYC. Boston will be spared. ice is a big issue in North Carolina right now. Atlanta is probably going to be lost today and tomorrow. Charlotte to-DC, Baltimore is probably gone all weekend NYC probably tonight and tomorrow are gone.

I'm expecting the numbers this weekend to be pretty depressed. They've already posted blizzard warnings for the Mid-Atlantic (DC and Baltimore as the focal point) and have blizzard watches for Philly an NY. There could be snow as far south as Atlanta. I'm expecting alot people just to hunker down and sit this weekend out.

Frankly moving VIII to December seems like a good idea to me. Gives them 6 more months to work on it and puts it in the same spot as VII. I think spreading them out a little more will also help their grosses. I'm also thinking they will re-release VII in from of it that winter.

Yep, my model has it hitting 900 on Jan 31st as well and 950 the last weekend of March.

Great hold for The Revenant and TFA's Monday keeps my model for it above 950 total and has it passing 900 the last weekend of Jan (around day 45). TFA passed 850 in 31 days.

my midline model has TFA at $987M at end of March (down from $997 the week before). $32M weekend this upcoming weekend, with a 40M 4-day holiday. My conservative model is right at $950M. if TFA made 50% of Avatar's gross through 3/31 that would be $967M. (812+155). In response to one poster i doubt Disney had any plans to push TFA as who would have even thought you could get it into the ballpark of 1B - that would have been pretty insane to even think about, frankly it still is. Would Disney want that mark if it was in reach, they are not ones to simply through money to get a mark. There marketing spend for TFA has been below avg because of all their tie ins doing alot of the work for them. If it stayed on my midline model course or the 3X TTT mentioned I don't think Disney would even need a special edition release. It might only need to maybe have a Rogue One trailer attached or maybe some early footage from VIII (like LOTR used to do) to get alot of the SW fans to go another time. If it starts topping out closer to 950 it would definately need a SE. I'm not confident you will see one though as Abrams has already said there will not be an extended edition DVD release. There will be some deleted scenes but not an extended edition.

Not a strong hold for TFA this weekend but the actuals keep the B train in conversation for another week, but TFA would need a strong hold next week to keep that train in conversation. The train is slowing down but hasn't derailed quite yet.

DVD release for TFA is April 5. That was announced a while ago. That is why the models i am using go to 3/31. Anything after that is pure gravy if they decide to let it run. it feels like it may be released on DVD before it hits second run theaters. if the 6M holds that is a great number and improves the chances for $1B. 6M gives my midline model a 45.7M est for this weekend and a total take of 998.2M on 3/31. That model has been fluctuating anywhere from 969 to 1,031M over the last week or so depending upon the dailies. TFA held roughly 99% of Avatar's weekdays this week. as of today TFA would need to maintain just under 64% of Avatar's take through 3/31 to get to 1B by that date. Avatar made 360M from today to April 1, 2010 (same day as March 31, 2016 due to leap year this year), TFA needs 230M to get to 1B. (if it holds 50% of Avatar's gross now through 3/31 it makes it to 950M, 60% would be 986M).

DVD release for TFA is April 5. That was announced a while ago. That is why the models i am using go to 3/31. Anything after that is pure gravy if they decide to let it run. it feels like it may be released on DVD before it hits second run theaters. if the 6M holds that is a great number and improves the chances for $1B. 6M gives my midline model a 45.7M est for this weekend and a total take of 998.2M on 3/31. That model has been fluctuating anywhere from 969 to 1,031M over the last week or so depending upon the dailies. TFA held roughly 99% of Avatar's weekdays this week. as of today TFA would need to maintain just under 64% of Avatar's take through 3/31 to get to 1B by that date. Avatar made 360M from today to April 1, 2010 (same day as March 31, 2016 due to leap year this year), TFA needs 230M to get to 1B.

With Discount Tuesdays it seems to be modifying viewing habits where some people that would go on a Wed go on a Tues instead. Also keep in mind that in many parts of the US Wednesday is a 'church' night. With choir rehearsals, bible studies, Wednesday night suppers, etc. Not as big a deal as it would have been 20 yrs ago but it is still a factor.

Adjusted is always variable depending upon the inflation adjustments you use. You will generally see most of the same movies but the order can change a little bit based on the inflation methodology you use. Here is BOM http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/adjusted.htm Here is pro.boxoffice http://pro.boxoffice.com/statistics/alltime_numbers/domestic/adjusted Here is the-numbers (they limit it to 1977 to the present) http://www.the-numbers.com/movie/records/All-Time-Inflation-Adjusted

To get a sense of how fast TFA made some of these marks. TFA hit 750M on Day 18. JW hit 500 on Day 17, Avatar hit 350M on Day 17. TFA will hit 800 on either Day 23 or 24. JW hit 550 on Day 24. Avatar hit 400M on Day 23. TFA will likely outgross JW's 3rd week weekdays (Days 18-21) despite being in the dead of winter and should be +-1M of Avatar's. Only Daddy's Coming Home (other than TFA) had at a day last weekend higher than TFA's Monday or Tuesday grosses. Only 6 films (not including TFA) made more the entire last weekend than TFA made on Monday.

An 8M Tues would bring my midline model to $1.003B on 3/31. FWIW, with an 8M number TFA would have over a $132M cushion on Avatar's remaining take through March (1/6-3/31)to get to $1B by 3/31. Here is something sort of insane to think about. If TFA was to gross $1.5M less than Avatar every day forward for the rest of its run (ie, 5.4 Wed, 4.5 Thur etc) it would pass $1B on Feb 20th. That won't happen, but just shows you how much of a quick build it had in its cumulative gross. Another thing to keep in mind. it will make some money in the second run theaters. JW was at 640 when it went to second run and ended up at 652 - making some 12M in second run theaters.

As of Monday TFA has effectively a $131.3M cushion compared to Avatar gross to make $1B. To put that in perspective. There are 87 days between now and March 31. If TFA was to make $1.5M below Avatar's daily gross all 87 days, it would hit $1B on 3/31. FWIW, there are 27 days out of those 87 where Avatar didn't even make $1.5M for its daily gross. So there are 27 days during that period where it is physically impossible for TFA to make $1.5M less than Avatar.

Great rant Baumer. How one feels about a movie really should have little impact on how one views the box office run of a movie. They are distinct entities. There are some amazing runs out there. TFA is on one, Avatar and Titanic are 2 of the more impressive ever. Just because i'm not a big fan of those last 2 (even though I love Cameron's earlier movies -esp T1, T2, Abyss and True Lies) I would never take away or demean how impressive those box office runs were or suggest they are less impressive because of TFA's current run. Nor will I demean TFA and downgrade it based on how it compares to those 2 (and other older) films. I'm just trying to enjoy the ride.

If it holds 8 then that is a solid number. Not an incredible number, but not an avg or poor number either. It basically keeps Baumer's B train on the track moving toward the station slowly but steadily. Baumer has expressed eloquently what this run is like and not like so no need to rehash, but think of it this way. if you assume making $1B by 3/31 TFA would need to gross 66.2% of Avatar's gross from Monday 1/4 to 3/31. That 8 number would be over 95% of Avatar's Monday's gross, so statistically it makes $1B more likely rather than less likely. if the actual comes in at 8 then TFA needs 65.5% of Avatar's gross from Tuesday on to reach 1B by 3/31. In my head I just try to keep in mind any day it makes at least 70% of Avatar's gross for that day it's making it likely it hits 1B. TFA is fun to follow right now partially because it is in a grey area for the one thing left to talk about - whether it can get to 1B. You can make legit arguments for either side, we simply don't have enough non Holiday data points yet to make strong conclusions either way. I think both 1B DOM and the 2.2B WW are going to be quite close. I'd be surprised if it ended up more than +-3% on either of them. TFA started Monday with over a $131M cushion on Avatar's gross from 1/4-3/31 to make $1B.

Baumer's B train is still alive. The actuals ended up making 1B more likely in my mid-line model than it was as of Wed. Right around 50/50 now. Conservative model is around 945M and the more aggressive is closer to 1.05B. I'm assuming to get to $1B it needs to do it around Mar 31 since the HV release is April 5. Sort of fun to watch what each days' numbers did to my final 3/31 est. After last Wednesday is was at $989M total (with an est 89.1M first Jan weekend). Then the big Thur est came out and it rose to $1.031B (and a 95M weekend) Then the Fri est came out and it fell to $1.017B (93M weekend) Then the Sat Est came out and it fell to $998M. (91M weekend) Then the Sun Est came out and it fell to $974M. With actuals the 3/31 est increases to $1.001B. The 21+M number is the most important as the next 88 days numbers all come off of the most recent day. That's why a relatively small number change can still have an outsized affect on the final gross prediction - it ripples through almost 3 months of daily percentages. I think we know by MLK day. We need to see how this performs for a couple of non Holiday weeks. The Avatar +32 crowd are just about dead on right now. TFA has $390M more than Avatar at the same point. From today through Apr 1, 2010 (this year is a leap year so you have to include an extra day in 2010) Avatar made $389M. TFA needs to hold 66.2% of that number to get to $1B by 3/31. Effectively every day that TFA makes 67% or better of Avatar's daily for that day it gets closer to $1B and makes it easier to get there. Any day it makes less than 67% of Avatar's take for that day it gets harder. I still want to see some non Holiday numbers to see how this does, but it is starting to feel like Disney can probably have a $1B movie if it wants it bad enough. It is likely going to be close enough that Disney could do an expansion late in the run (similar to what it did for IO around Labor Day) and get the additional gross if it needs it. Would be easy to market. One last chance to see the movie before it leaves theaters. if they threw in something like bonus footage or early Rogue One footage that would likely help goose the total. I know a number of people on this thread have suggested something of this variety. if it holds well enough it will be interesting to watch if Disney wants that number or not. Also, it missed AS best day by less than $200K on both Fri and Sat. It's third weekend is the #50 largest weekend of all time and would be the top grossing weekend ever in the months of Jan, Feb, Sept and Oct. It needs $7.8M to get to $750M on day 18.

I'm just back from my second viewing of TFA (I seldom see a movie more than once in a theater - just don't have the time) with some colleagues and spouses. Was a 2:45 show that was basically completely full. 2D, metro Atlanta. Have no idea what the number will be today, but it was doing strong business at the complex I visited.