I might be wrong on this, but Tuesday discount day always seemd to be driven by the older crowd. They are still slowly coming back, and I think is why you saw the new, older skewing movie (Elvis) have a much better performance than others yesterday.
It was only a few weeks ago when people were laughing at $600m being a lock, and now it will be there around July 10th.
Let's see how it plays out with regards to $700m.
No wide releases on August 12th. Beast and Dragon Ball Super on August 19th. The Invitation on August 26th.
That is it for the last 3 weeks of the month. Terrible.
TG2 will be trucking along racking up money on the way to a nice Labor Day expansion and bump.
I could be wrong, but if it is at $600m by July 10th (and it should be), I just don't see how it only has another $30m-$40m left in it's run from there.
A lot of that is due to a horrendous August. It is the most empty (along with September) that I have seen a month outside of this past January.
Meaning if I was betting on it, I would put a large bet that it will hit $700m+. It will be at $600m on July 10th. It needs $100m (obviously) from there to the end of its run. I see nothing that takes it off screen at any mega-plex and even most 9 or 10 screen theaters until after Labor Day.
I think the 2nd trailer didn't do it any favors and they should have never released that one in favor of the one they released earlier this week. The run time and Baz's style are also challengs with the demographics that came in. I also think that a slight impact of politics this week kept women (the core audience per polling) occupied.
With that said, it still put up a good and ecouraging number given all factors and should play strong for another month.