Porthos

friggin copy-n-paste. (thanks for the heads up) Fixed in that post and future ones, but not gonna bother with prior posts.

Not the thread to go deeply (or, really at all) into this, but... I might have been making a half-recollected piece of commentary about KotM... Just might, mind. (again, not really the thread for such things)

For previews (which is what I concern myself with) in Sacramento it was tracking at a near perfect 1:2 ratio against JWFK, or about 7.5m-ish, give or take (have to go through the relevant thread to pull the exact numbers but I recall it bouncing around inside the 7s). Reviews came out and momentum just stalled and it ended up at 6.3m

So tempted to make a vibes vs data joke here, but I fear I've made enough subtextual comments in this thread for one day. 😉

Now this just isn't true. KotM took a hit in my tracking when reviews dropped (dropped about a 1m or so for Thr previews) and our very own @Shawn Robbins noted in his recap at the time that KotM came in at the conservative end of projections: (saw this earlier today when I was looking for AAPI demo info on Godzilla films, ftr) What is true is that they don't necessarily take *AS MUCH* of a hit. But even here, what the reviews say matters. If the negative reviews say the monster fights are a boring slog where it's hard to see what happens, you can bet your sweet bippy that'll hurt much more than reviews complaining about paper thin plots and characterizations even if the RT/Metacritic scores are broadly the same. Once again I think we should give the GA a tiny bit more credit in how they consume RT/Metacritic/IMDB and the like. Yes, they place too much weight on the overall score at all three places (and others). But they are still a little bit more discerning than I think is given credit for, especially for popcorn movies like this one.

Not to bring this back up, but this is why I was interested in seeing Tuesday sales as even for very walkup based properties they tend to be something of a harbinger of how good the walkups will be. FWIW, the sales yesterday weren't quite what I was hoping for, at least in Sacramento, but there weren't bad enough for me to slam on the brakes, either. I was hoping for something closer to 500 tickets sold, or at least closer to 475. As it was, still good enough for me to float my personal midpoint a bit higher than it was. Have some other thoughts, particularly about how demos might be affecting sales in different parts of the country. But they're kinda half baked so probably leave them to the side for now (if I even bring them up at all).

I've said it before, and I'll say it again: Motivated reasoning is a hell of a drug. If one looks at this dispassionately, Peltz has said all sorts of things that should give people pause/raise red flags. Attacking Black Panther and Kevin Feige are two big ones (Feige's current speedbumps not withstanding the man's track record speaks for itself). But how many people aren't looking at this dispassionately? How many people are still smarting over the stock fluctuations of last year? How many people are looking at how Disney+/Hulu is doing against Netflix? How many people just want to shake things up and don't care how they do it? (am I making a subtextual point here about a different in-the-news topic?) ... How'd that get in there? No idea. Anyway, when folks are ornery or displeased with the status quo or just in general dissatisfied, then they are prone to downplay or ignore or in general not give weight to things which might be ordinarily disqualifying. In fact, someone Saying Something Bold And Controversial might even be seen as a plus in a Speak (Alleged-But-Not-Really) Truth To Power sort of way. Consider it analogous to the Good Girls Love Bad Boys phenomenon where folks are actually attracted to someone saying taboo things. The thrill of being naughty, as it were. NARRATOR: Again with the subtextual commentary. I do tend to think that Iger has done himself no favors with the lack of succession plan, but let's not kid ourselves. Disney had a pretty big down year last year and that's the major source of all of this. How will it end? Hell if I know. But better believe that Peltz does indeed have a chance of pulling this out. How good of a chance? Again, hell if I know. Ask me again in a couple of weeks.

Forgot RotB had EA when I made my comments last night. Anyway, yes it would have and yes it did.

Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire — Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 days and counting Capped Sellouts Showings Seats left Total Seats Seats Sold Perct Sold TOTALS 0 0 188 22462 24760 2298 9.28% Total Showings Added Today 16 Total Seats Added Today 841 Total Seats Sold Today 445 T-2 Comps % Sold T-2 Total Sold Sellouts Shows Seats Left Total Seats Perct Sold Final Sold % of Final Comp BA 89.45 397 2569 0/232 28250/30819 8.34% 4494 51.13% 7.69m Wick 4 71.83 552 3199 0/166 17433/20632 15.51% 5448 42.18% 6.39m Fast X 96.43 327 2383 0/235 30517/32900 7.24% 4122 55.75% 7.23m AtSV 42.53 944 5403 0/230 23909/29312 18.43% 9744 23.58% 7.38m RotB 91.85 524 2502 0/183 22360/24862 10.06% 4973 46.21% 8.08m FNAF 54.45 524 4220 0/235 23745/27965 15.09% 6466 35.54% 5.61m BOSS 146.09 265 1573 0/136 15613/17186 9.15% 2701 85.08% 8.40m GBFE 191.02 223 1203 0/201 27252/28455 4.23% 2197 104.60% 8.98m FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Godzilla x Kong's current tickets sold versus that final number. Regal: 557/8482 [6.57% sold] Matinee: 113/2416 [4.68% | 4.92% of all tickets sold] 3D: 313/5209 [6.01% | 13.62% of all tickets sold] PLF: 1272/9733 [13.07% | 55.35% of all tickets sold] === Still showing growth on the sub 8m comps, but the trio of 8m+ comps I do have were a bit more mixed. RotB fell a tiny amount, while BOSS and GBFE rose a tad. But the later two under-performed locally, so who knows. Most hopeful comp, I think, is Black Adam which rose a decent amount. All in all, might be converging on 8m, but the error bars are still in play, I think. Shame about reviews being day-of, but whatcha gonna do. Not much else to add which hasn't already been said, so I'll leave it there for now.

You know... I'm not entirely sure what fandom is gonna think of this latest episode. Well, except for noting that Still, that quip aside I'm gonna be interested in seeing how fandom takes to it. I mean, I enjoyed it. And I certainly have A Few Questions afterwards about a few different things. But I do see the... potential for some folks being irritated at pacing issues, and I'm wondering if that's gonna raise its head or not. ... Okay, yeah. One real observation. Well, and a second observation:

Oh, I dunno. Could see a counterculture movement brew in the near future as a large scale Reaction Against The System/Machine. But it would only share in broad strokes with the Sixties counterculture movement. Much like the Sixties was similar in Broad Strokes to some of the counterculture aspects of the Roaring Twenties (thinking the Jazz scene/Harlem Renaissance, flappers and speakeasies, and even the first beginnings of the existentialism of Hemingway and co.) but very different in other respects. Mind, we might not as you say. Part of the problem is the.... Hmmm... Kinda doubt Gen Z is all that primed for a more hedonistic take on things that both the Twenties and Sixties shared. On the other hand, could easily see neo-existentialism rise as a radically different take on counterculture as people lean into despair/question their purpose in the universe. Just takes a couple of meme wars to really take off and, well, who knows. Getting back to the subtopic, I think for a modern take on The Prisoner to work, it'd really need to lean into the dual aspects of modern society that produce a decent amount of absurdity and angst (modern social media in particular would be a target rich environment). The Prisoner was both a critique on the Cold War as well as societal trends of the day. For a modern version of The Prisoner to be AS relevant, it'd need to be aimed squarely at some of the societal issues of today and not just retread/ape the concerns of the Sixties, relevant as they might be. The Prisoner was controversial back in the day, after all (one episode was refused to be aired by CBS when they were showing it back in 1968) and this should be as well. Can still be set in the Sixties and that might even help disguise the message a bit. But do think it can't just re-tell the same story in the same/similar way, as what's the point?

From Wikipedia: Not included are various shorts like Star Wars: Visions and I am Groot and whatnot.

A couple of Star Wars shows. Pixar has had at least one series. Various shorts from both Marvel and SW. Maybe others.

Pictured: Pads, G'nts, and Snakes I would have made a "you can bet on it" joke, buuuuuttt, probably a bit "too soon" and all that.

I mean, it's "(very) good for animation", so depends on how one wants to look at it. Will have to wait 'till we see Nielsen data before we can compare/contrast to something like What If? Plus multiple weeks of data to see retention/growth over the weeks I do note that the blurb says: but until we get harder numbers, it'll be hard to compare. Either way, I'd say yes it is good. Just have to remember the category it's being judged in.

Well, we might be violently agreeing, as the phrase goes, but I'm talking about movement within your 7m-9m range. So today might show which end of the range (or middle for that matter) is more likely.

"Nobody"?!? Painting with a rather broad brush there, aren't ya? (even if we're talking hyperbole, I'd... take issue with the sentiment)

(LIAR from The Princess Bride would also have worked as a gif meme since the NFL swore up and down it wouldn't do this, but decided to funk it up a bit)

I should also add... I'm just generally skeptical in regards to turning TV series into movies in the first place. They just have different strengths and what can make for a great TV series doesn't easily translate to making a great movie (and vice versa). It can be done, yes. But, again generally speaking, Skeptical Porthos Is Skeptical.

Many people have tried tackling The Prisoner, both on-screen and in print and... "Good Luck, Yer Gonna Need It." ==== The thing is, The Prisoner is such a period piece that I think it's very difficult to redo. Sure, the themes of The Prisoner are more relevant than ever, especially in regards to elites playing each other off while changing "sides" constantly. And the multinational critique of the mixture of politics, spying, and identify is as timely as ever though more in regards to corporations/rich assholes playing "the Game" than nations. And social media itself is extremely Prisoner-esque in not being able to easily establish what is real and what isn't, all while being trapped in a land of funhouse mirrors. At the same time it is very very *VERY* Sixties in its execution and it sets an almost impossible standard to compare to. Arrival (the first story of the series) is relatively easy to adapt to modern times. Set up is easy. Well, easier. Middle is a little more difficult but the No 6 vs No 2 dynamic is also relatively easy to pull off. It's going beyond that and trying to capture the spirt, the counterculture vibe, the anti-authoritarianism, the sheer quirkiness/off-kilter nature of the series which will be difficult to do in a 100 min to 150 min film. Try squeezing down The Prisoner to thee or so episodes. While keeping up the sheer insanity of the finale of the series. I dare you. No, I double dog dare you. Can probably cut about 15 to 20 minutes out of Arrival, okay fine. Can segue way relatively quickly into something covering similar to the next episode The Chimes of Big Ben (though I personally would prefer something more like Hammer Into Anvil as that, pardon the pun, hammers the philosophical/moral differences between Six and the System like few other episodes [while also noting, as Orwell did, that the hammer breaks before the anvil]) in that we have the classic No 6 vs No 2 standoff. Then we have the resolution where Six tries to escape The Village. How much do you lean into the sheer WTFery of Fall Out? Do you attempt something more standard or mainstream (for the record, I'm in the camp of... not appreciating/liking the ending of Fall Out as I actually think it's a bit of a copout/letdown on more than a few levels) and go more for what Once Upon A Time was suggesting [which I dearly love, also for the record]). How much do you lean into the psychedelic aspects of the series? That is one of the things that LOST tapped into brilliantly when it drew inspiration from The Prisoner from S2 onward. But, then again, LOST had the advantage of being a TV series so it could afford to take its time in establishing those sorts of things. Time which a movie won't have. I can't say Nolan doesn't have the chops to pull it off. But... Well... "Good Luck...."

Not to bring you down, but I do think we probably want to wait 'till we see all of today's numbers from various markets before getting too giddy one way or the other. Since this is a walkup heavy franchise/genre, I'd call today Moving Day (to steal a golfing term) in that today's gonna be the day where we really see if 7m, 8m or even 9m is more likely than not. Particularly interested in seeing my internal patterns before I jump on the 8m+ train. FWIW, if a gun were to my head? Prob be in the 7.25m - 8.5m range, with me shorting 8m. But I really want to see Tue numbers before committing as this could indeed sail past 8m with little difficulty. But it also could still start with a 7. ... Maybe I'll have a prezzie for you when you wake up tomorrow morning. Just have to see, I suppose. 🙂

If Peltz had just stuck to an Underperforming 2023 slate argument, he'd be in a better position. If Peltz had just stuck to attacking The Marvels as a sign of Disney putting Agenda Over Quality, he'd be in a better position — though still a very detestable person as that is not why The Marvels underperformed/flopped. Attacking BP and BP2? Well I won't say it's a death sentence, coz corporate intrigue can be second only to palace intrigue in its opaqueness and impenetrability from the outside, but it sure doesn't help his chances. What it does do is help polarize this from a Disney Underperform meta story into a Go Woke, Go Broke/DEI backlash story, and that is much much much more shaky ground to be on. To put it a different way, it turns it into (more of) a political fight than an economic one, and those are harder to forecast. Sure Peltz and all will try to say that they're turning away from politics; but the inclusion of very successful films like Black Panther is, as they say, a bit of a tell. And really ought to give fence sitters more than a bit of pause about who'd they'd be getting into bed with.

This is actually interesting. Xmas Eve is always and always will be on the Absolutely Not list. But it wasn't that long ago that BOT had the informal Memorial Day Weekend Deathslot/Sacrifice meme going due to film after film after film underperforming on MDW. Lots and lots and lots of analysis was performed over the years attempting to figure out why films were underperforming on MDW. Travel was the biggest, and probably most compelling, reason cited. After Aladdin and Top Gun Maverick over-performed, just turns out that the public didn't feel like coming out for shitty undesirable films. Go figure. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Not that you're wrong about Easter Weekend analysis. But this was something I've been thinking about posting lately, and this was as good a jumping point on as any.

could have ALSO worked as a gif choice. ... I suspect if @Brainbug was the one doing the analysis, that would have been in the post. 😛

That is definitely Fallout, alright. Though someone obviously didn't put enough points into Charisma. Noobs coming from other games where Charisma is a dump stat not realizing you can (nearly) literally talk your way out of any encounter with enough speech. smdh and all that.