Porthos

If I check out If (no pun intended), probably won't be able to break out Regal Only comps as I don't keep that level of data for Q&Ds. Can note how many of the current tickets are Regal, but can't back compare them to other QD tracks. (big if like I said, however)

‘Fallout’ Explodes as Prime Video’s Most-Watched Title Globally With 65 Million Viewers (The Wrap) Okay, first things first. This article, or rather whatever Amazon told The Wrap/The Wrap got from Amazon, is a little slippery and fast and loose with terminology. For one thing, comparing and contrasting a binge release (Fallout) with a weekly release (Rings of Power) is... Well, almost literally apples and oranges as one show is gonna have a whole lot more material to watch than the other through 16 days. Secondly, as I mentioned when word started floating around about RoP's viewership numbers, even if we don't get into TVGR's "Trust Us" philosophy when it comes to this sort of backslapping "65 million viewers" is such a weasely statement as to be practically meaningless. Is Amazon reckoning x number of people per account? Counting everybody whose watched five minutes of a episode? Counting each episode as its own separate view? So so soooo many places where this could be massaged. What *IS* true is that Amazon has a smash hit on its hands through the first 16 days (TVGR has reported something like 5.3 billion minutes watched for the whole series over the first couple of weeks in the US. It's just the level of the smash hit and its staying power which is in question (binge release complicating my personal analysis here).

Amazing what a pair of industry crippling strikes will do, not just in delaying high profile films but upsetting the entire entertainment-theater complex. Both during the strikes and in the medium-term afterwards. *starts to type several versions of a thought* *keeps deleting them and starting over* Look, I get some of us are... disappointed by the current state of the box office. But, really, what were people expecting when we got news about film after film after film getting pushed back into the latter half of the year? Might not be quite as bad as the COVID delays, but, at the same time, "second verse, same as the first." Yes, it sucks that The Fall Guy might not break out (though we really don't know yet). But... Like, can't say I'm personally surprised by how some films have done recently. Hell, even had a couple of over-performers in there. Talk to me at the end of the year and after we see how much recovery there's been (if there has been a recovery). Anything else I really have to say about this probably belongs in a WE thread or the strikes thread, now over in the Speakeasy. Or maybe some other forward looking/general discussion thread. (this is something I've been biting my tongue about, but couldn't hold it in any longer)

I would point out that something like The Fall Guy is going to be far more backloaded than something like TPM. Especially a re-re-release of TPM. As for "not even have a great reputation"? Not the thread to get into it, but I will generally point out that the reputation of the prequels in general has trended way up over the last decade-plus. Not just from any perceived compare/contrast with other material that might have come out, but folks who always loved those movies getting a much louder voice and finally starting to outshout prequel detractors. I won't try to oversell this as the reputation is the reputation (I personally am... not high... on TPM). But you'd better believe that there is a very dedicated group of folks out there for whom the prequels are very much their jam.

It's only "bad news" in as much as "things didn't go exactly as planned so we have to change direction" is a sign that things needed to be changed. But, as I intimated in my admittedly snarky post, there's a pretty strong reason sitting right out in the open for a possible change of direction. Beyond that, there's a *VERY* long list of films that have had production chaos that have turned out to be fantastic. Admittedly, there's also a long list of films that turned out to be trainwrecks. And then there's probably the majority which wind up somewhere on the "eh" spectrum. But my basic point is that folks way overreact to stories about reshoots, and double especially about length of reshoots. That reshoots happen, even fairly big ones, doesn't say nearly as much as they think it does.

MARVEL NEEDS TO COURSE CORRECT AND CHANGE THINGS UP AFTER THE PROBLEMS OF 2023!!! *Marvel engages in precisely that* MARVEL CHANGING THINGS UP MID-PRODUCTION IS NOT A GREAT SIGN EVERYONE!!! (felt a little snarky — don't mind me)

They're not bad news, either.

Google Translate translation: Experience this #Maythe4thBeWithYou like never before on Cinemex's Thunder Stage with #TheAcolyte , the next big Star Wars project. A galaxy far, far away joins the #CCXPVerse for a day full of surprises for all force users. This May 4th be part of #CCXPMexico Hopefully we'll get some good food out of this, and perhaps even a final trailer.

Monday (4/29) according to the tracking doc from @misterpepp and @katnisscinnaplex.

Oh, I'm well aware, though I suspect at least some of that feeling has shifted from "OJ was innocent" to "Well, at least someone who was Black was able to beat the system instead of having the system screw them". Plus the general, "Okay, OJ probably did it, but Fuck Them Racist Cops, so whatever". Which... I have a decent amount of sympathy for. If this project ever sees the light of day — and I am, let's say skeptical for a reason I'll say in a mo — I think it'll be quite the social media train wreck for many different reasons. Or rather, people finding different reasons to comment on it. For instance, what leapt out to me as a sign of unseriousness was the asking for "outrageous suggestions" of what people would like to see in the film. Via a Google Form no less! ... To paraphrase The Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy, have to give them 10/10 for viral originality (plus harvesting of personal data no doubt), but minus several million for good sense.

There's quite a few basketball fans on the forum, though they're not commenting as much about it as days gone by. Probably my (distant) third sport, but with the Kings being out and the Dubs at the end of their window, not much for me to comment on. Just as long as the Lakers lose in humiliating fashion, I'll be happy with just about anything that happens.

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Oh my. "The footage ends with a link to a Google Form requesting suggestions for "outrageous ideas" to include in the movie." Oh my oh my. "Prior reports about the film have suggested that it will present an argument that definitively exonerates Simpson from Brown's murder." Obviously the people behind this project saw all Teh Drama around Michael and haughtily said, "amateurs". @BoxOfficeFangrl you have to read this article (presuming you haven't already). (is it bad that I searched the forums to see if there was an On The Lot thread for this film? )

I was just thinking about this and thinking it was Wrecker would be the most likely to get the axe, as being a Lovable Goof is pretty much his defining characteristic (well, along with his loyalty). Tend to think Crosshair is the most likely to survive as a Live With Your Guilt/Atone For Your Past type thing while looking over Omega with Hunter or Echo being the next most likely to bite the bullet. Just don't get the sense that they're doing a Redemption Equals Death type dealio with Crosshair as he already crossed that Rubicon a while ago. Wouldn't be surprised if it did happen, mind. Come to think of it to think of it, might slip Wrecker down a tier and have it something like: Hunter/Echo Wrecker [still debating on whether or not to swap him with Echo] Crosshair <INSERT A MILLION BLANK LINES HERE> Omega I suppose Echo might have a Get Out of Jail Death Free card if he's gonna be the link to the inevitable(?) Rex series/shorts. When it comes right down to it, I think the only one who *is* completely safe is Omega. Though, come to think of it,

Thanks to recency bias, gonna be a whooooole lot of talk about Bohemian Rhapsody, but I'm waiting to see how many critics pull Great Balls of Fire! (1989) out of their rolodex for their compare/contrasts, as that to me seems to be the most On Point comparison. I mean, I realize I'm talking about a 35 year old film here, so we're talking about a radically different environment, both for movies at the time and the general cultural state of the US/elsewhere. Plus it isn't exactly remembered all that well in the first place. But have to say, it's Great Balls of Fire! that I immediately think of when I start thinking about Michael. (well, when I'm not thinking about the certain multiple train wrecks that will occur on social media over this film)

Finally took the time to see the trailer* * remember, it's "Resident Star Wars Shill and Apologist", not "Resident Marvel Shill and Apologist" or "Resident Disney Shill and Apologist". Have to say "Cocaine is the one thing Feige said was off limits" is a hell of a way to end the trailer. 👍 An instantly meme-able line, IMO. Hilariously enough, the subtitles on YT have cocaine stared out as "C******", which has to be deliberate. 😂 I so hope that actually makes it into the actual subtitled version of the film.

The Empire was... surprisingly competent in this episode. Oh, not perfect by any means, but leagues better than they('re) normally (portrayed as) are. Is a pretty big dangling thread that's very likely to be picked up on, I suspect But all in all a very well plotted out episode with all actors involved making logical moves and counter moves. Or at least in-character moves in the case of [SPOILER DELETED]. Can't even really blame [SPOILER DELETED] considering how out of their element they were. It's all coming together for the finale. Gonna be interesting to see what happens when the shit hits the fan. Have to think a

I think the real test/tell will be Cap 4. As it shouldn't have most of the baggage that surrounded The Marvels or have any real connection to fallout from AQM. Or the multiverse storyline in general. The only real big strike against it, and it's not an insignificant one, is the... less than universal praise given to The Falcon and the Winter Soldier. That has the potential to derail things. (reshoots I don't care about at all, as that discussion is USUALLY far overblown) But I do think it's probably wise to remember that before Captain America: Civil War (which might as well have been Avengers 2.5), the Cap films weren't box office juggernauts. Using the likely conservative ATP adj from the-numbers, Cap 1 opened to something around 88m (65m non-adj) and Cap 2 to 125m (95m non-adj). Probably too far out to set any sort of range, especially given a lot can happen between now and release, but I do think noting how Cap 1 did way back when might be useful in at least framing the discussion, if not expectations.

My current ballpark expectations are around 165m - 190m OW; so let's say 180m, give or take. Prob being a little optimistic there, but I think the buzz is real.

Memorial Day Weekend is on the weekend of the 24th-27th (counting Monday), which the OW for Garfield.

Maybe it's only in Sacto, but have to say I was rather impressed with Garfield's sales. Not impressed enough for a dedicated track, but impressed nonetheless. Speaking of KFP4, not at my main computer at the moment, but might sniff around to see if I kept any D1 data for that movie as it might be the best most recent comp, even with the EA factor,

It's preview night is the 23rd, but yeah my bad. Lemme fix the post. (that actually makes the start slightly better. Well, probably. Maybe. At least a little)

Soooo... I don't know who wants to hear this, but Garfield did... pretty decently on its D1 locally, all things considered. And it wasn't even thanks to an EA boost as the lone EA showing up so far has sold exactly one ticket so far. Considering the extreme backloaded nature of the genre + at least some upfront interest due to the Name Brand, not gonna do any comps. Yet. But I will provide some contrasts: Garfield 60 tickets sold on Day 1 (EA: 1 ticket sold) [T-31] ---------------------------------- Sonic 2: 182 tickets sold on Day 1 [T-24] Minions 2 : 67 tickets sold on Day 1 [T-24] Yes Yes, "let reddit know about this immediately" Nope: 57 tickets sold on Day 1 [T-42] Elemental: 37 tickets sold on Day 1 [T-30] Wonka: 57 tickets sold on Day 1 [T-29] Mean Girls: 52 tickets sold on Day 1 [T-29] Don't think I kept Wish's info anywhere on this thread, and that had that weird unannounced pre-sale window that had a smattering of tickets. Plus that had Discount Tuesday anyway, so meh. Either way, a decent enough start. Won't really know where this is headed for a while, thanks to the nature of the genre. But I am... let's say monitoring it. Just in case.

Buzz and interest is a funny thing as there's little rhyme and reason to it. I don't think Taylor Swift having a meaningful role in the film would mean all that much in the end. Not adding a huge amount to the OW, that is. On the other hand, I think Lady Gaga being in Joker 2 *IS* very meaningful, despite her not being a "draw" in and of herself in some of her previous films. (yes, I know the obvious difference between the two situations so no need to point it out, thankyewveddymuch) Think of it more as synergy/force multiplier than anything else. Or rather, more positive prerelease buzz = more hype = more initial interest = stronger opening, no matter what the actual reason is for the "more positive prerelease buzz" at the beginning of the equation. Now, of course, the smaller the role, the less of a deal this is. Including all the way down to nothing burger. Still, I do think we collectively sometimes swing too far into the "Nothing that happens on social media matters" side of things versus the "buzz is buzz no matter what the source". Taylor Swift being in this film would add buzz, at least as long as it isn't a blink-and-you-miss-it type deal. And as I often say, we ignore/discount buzz (positive or negative) at our peril.