Porthos

Mostly depends on what one thinks the floor is for TROS's OW and what the ceiling is for Frozen 2. Is the ceiling for Frozen 2 200m? Well, I'd say "ask me in a few days", but we still have the cautionary tale of TS4's first few days (once again, "thanks Deadline"). I will say I personally don't think it is impossible for F2 to approach 200m OW and it's not impossible for TROS to have a 190m OW. But I personally think that's the ceiling/floor scenario I mentioned. Everything going right and then some on the case of Frozen 2. It'd have to have a major zeitgeist moment and by definition I think those are hard to forecast with very (or no) limited data. How likely that is, I'll wait a few days before ruminating on further. I especially want to see the number Sacto comes up with tonight, for instance.

Thread of tweets by Breznican, retuning to the SW beat at long last. 👍 edit:::: The Force really does move in mysterious ways!!!!

Yeah, I talked about this a couple of days ago (not going to bother pulling up the post). As far as I know, it's something brand new. What's damned odd about it is that, as far as I know, it's an AMC exclusive. While AMC does have a pretty good national penetration it is by no means over the entire country. Disney is potentially leaving some dollars on the table by doing this. I hope it is a one-time thing and Dolby just gave them a great deal coz I won't be pleased to see the Opening Night Fan Events shift to AMC only, as I don't have one within 60 minutes of my home.

I may, MAY, have been solicited for costume ideas. ... Consider that my revenge for you OUTing my club.

Yeah, I was kinda confused as well but decided to let it pass without comment.

I'd reckon so. Is six days closer to release, mind. So, once again this year, not a perfect comparison. But should equalize pretty quickly. ==== I'll probably comp off the first two or three days for all of the family films I have to get a nice baseline for the initial takeoff and then shift over to x-Days from release on Thursday or Friday. The Pika Pika comp, if I include it, will be a little screwy when I shift over due to it having 30 days of pre-sales (versus Frozen 2's 18). But that too should normalize fairly quickly.

45% of TLK's first day sales, more or less.

Only a few hours in and Frozen 2 is already at 75% of TS4's first day sales locally. 👍 (this is my way of saying: Sacramento Seat Map built for F2)

=== Not to speak for them, but I'm expecting most of the trackers here to post on it, if not every day for some. That it'll only have 18 days of pre-sales will greatly help. Means not too many days of double dipping it and TROS.

The Rise of Skywalker Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-46 days and counting Sellouts Showings Seats left Total Seats Seats Sold Perct Sold TOTALS 2 194 12018 23249 11231 48.31% Total Showings Added Today 1* Total Seats Added Today n/a Total Seats Sold Today 49 * Showing added today was at a non-reserved seating theater T-46 Adjusted Comp (EXTREMELY LOL - DON'T USE FOR MUCH OF ANYTHING) % Sold T-46 Total Sold Sellouts/Shows Seats Left/Total Seats Perct Sold Comp CM 438.62 43 2447 0/81 8161/10608 23.07% 90.79m TROS (adj) n/a 46 10733 2/194 11254/21987 48.82% n/a ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TROS (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Captain Marvel. --- Estimated TROS Gross So Far: % Final Sold TROS Sold Comp IW 63.03 15159 9598 24.69m DP2 117.47 8133 9598 21.95m Solo 165.04 5789 9598 23.38m JW:FK 153.40 6228 9598 23.58m AM&tW 207.47 4605 9598 23.97m Venom 220.52 4493 9954 22.15m CM 101.27 10553 10733 21.05m EG 40.09 26655 10733 24.16m TLK 97.36 10977 10733 22.49m It 2 197.60 5659 11231 20.84m AVG 22.83m NOTE: FINAL SOLD is the amount of tickets sold at stop of tracking for the given movie and TROS SOLD is the amount of tickets sold so far at the same theaters I had tracking info for the movie in question.

While I'm a little unsure on my methodology, since I tend to stop my sampling at around the same time and use that to forecast a Thr number, I would think this might be more or less still in line with trying to figure out what TROS has received so far. Looks to be in range anyway, going by other figures out there. If my methodology is unsound (and I'm not sure where it is), not sure how I could tighten it up. Anyways, looking for a ballpark range here and not a precise number. None whatsoever, I'm afraid.

A literal "Laces Out, Dan" sighting in the wild today!

Since this doesn't have any good comps at the moment, I decided to take a page out of the Endgame playbook and estimate how much moola TROS has grossed so far by checking the current tickets sold against the final tickets sold at stop of tracking (adjusting when needed. Good news! Except for a very obvious outlier (Joker, which massively underperformed locally), they're all more or less in broad agreement. Enough so that tonight I'm gonna debut... Estimated TROS Gross So Far: % Final Sold TROS Sold Comp IW 63.03 15159 9554 24.58m DP2 117.47 8133 9554 21.85m Solo 165.04 5789 9554 23.27m JW:FK 153.40 6228 9554 23.47m AM&tW 207.47 4605 9554 23.86m Venom 220.52 4493 9908 22.05m CM 101.27 10553 10687 20.96m EG 40.09 26655 10687 24.06m TLK 97.36 10977 10687 22.39m It 2 197.60 5659 11182 20.75m AVG 22.72m NOTE: FINAL SOLD is the amount of tickets sold at stop of tracking for the given movie and TROS SOLD is the amount of tickets sold so far at the same theaters I had tracking info for the movie in question. ==== A little concerned it might be a bit high due to Infinity War and Endgame pulling up the average. On the other hand, Captain Marvel and It 2 are really pulling down the average, so it might be a bit of a wash. My criteria here were four quad movies that did 10m or more in previews. Was a little iffy on throwing in It 2, but I'm glad I did as it's counter-balancing IW and EG to a degree. I didn't include TS4 as that had too many kids tickets bought in my opinion. For the record, Joker came in at a ludicrous 27m comp. That's getting thrown right out. Out of curiosity, I just checked TS4 and that's at an equally ludicrous comp in the other direction at 19.1m. So TS4 is also definitely out. If I take out the current outliers in both directions (IW, EG, CM, and It 2), I get 23.42m. That seems a bit high given other tracking. So I'm going to roll with this for a while and see how it goes, but let's say an estimated 22m to 23m in Thr sales so far.

@grim22 I can't access the first version of the Tracking thread anymore. Did it get shuffled away somewhere in the latest forum re-organization? Or did you folks hide it again from prying eyes? No pressing reason tonight, but I just happened to notice I couldn't click on it anymore. Will be useful in the future though so I thought I'd ask now.

The Rise of Skywalker Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-47 days and counting Sellouts Showings Seats left Total Seats Seats Sold Perct Sold TOTALS 2 193 12067 23249 11182 48.10% Total Seats Sold Today 87 T-47 Adjusted Comp (EXTREMELY LOL - DON'T USE FOR MUCH OF ANYTHING) % Sold T-47 Total Sold Sellouts/Shows Seats Left/Total Seats Perct Sold Comp CM 444.55 36 2404 0/81 8204/10608 22.66% 92.02m TROS (adj) n/a 73 10687 2/193 11300/21987 48.61% n/a ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TROS (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Captain Marvel.

The Rise of Skywalker Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-48 days and counting Sellouts Showings Seats left Total Seats Seats Sold Perct Sold TOTALS 2 193 12154 23249 11095 47.72% Total Seats Sold Today 77 T-48 Adjusted Comp (EXTREMELY LOL - DON'T USE FOR MUCH OF ANYTHING) % Sold T-48 Total Sold Sellouts/Shows Seats Left/Total Seats Perct Sold Comp CM 448.23 37 2368 0/81 8240/10608 22.32% 92.78m TROS (adj) n/a 73 10614 2/193 11373/21987 48.27% n/a ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TROS (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Captain Marvel. === Very nice rebound today. 👍 Probably looking at a sub-40 ticket day tomorrow though, given Sat is one of the weaker days for pre-sales, plus there were a couple of spikes here and there today. Regardless, TROS is just chugging along as it paces itself for the stretch run coming up.

You're probably thinking of terrestrial as TalismanRing lives in New York.

Yep. Just coming here to say that. But I think CM over-performed a tad in Sacto. FWIW, The Lion King finished at 10977 tickets so it's fairly close to that.

The Rise of Skywalker Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-49 days and counting Sellouts Showings Seats left Total Seats Seats Sold Perct Sold TOTALS 2 193 12231 23249 11018 47.39% Total Seats Sold Today 30 T-49 Adjusted Comp (EXTREMELY LOL - DON'T USE FOR MUCH OF ANYTHING) % Sold T-49 Total Sold Sellouts/Shows Seats Left/Total Seats Perct Sold Comp CM 452.21 50 2331 0/81 8277/10608 21.97% 93.61m TROS (adj) n/a 22 10541 2/193 11446/21987 47.94% n/a ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TROS (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Captain Marvel. === Couple of group refunds/re-shufflings depressed the total today. Otherwise would have been in the mid-to-high 40s. Won't be surprised at all if tomorrow actually outpaces today when all is said and done, even if not by much.

Hmmm, I did see a reference to a "Fan Event in Dolby" in Fandango but I didn't investigate it. *checks* Unsurprisingly, with no AMCs locally we don't get that here. Weird. Wonder if it's Disney trying something new or if some sort of deal/promotion was made with Dolby/AMC.

Speaking of which, I'm not seeing any Opening Night Fan Events for Frozen 2. This is the first time in a while that a major tentpole Disney release didn't get one. At least from what I remember. Might just not be up yet locally, but it's damned strange not to see it for F2.

The Mouse moves in mysterious ways; ineffable to all forms of mere human understanding. === Any day now as showtimes are popping up. Absolutely no later than this coming Monday. Beyond that your guess is as good as mine.

The Rise of Skywalker Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-50 days and counting Sellouts Showings Seats left Total Seats Seats Sold Perct Sold TOTALS 2 193 12261 23249* 10988 47.26% * Theaters adjusted the seat maps for showings resulting in an addition of thirteen seats available overall. Total Seats Sold Today 52 T-50 Adjusted Comp (EXTREMELY LOL - DON'T USE FOR MUCH OF ANYTHING) % Sold T-50 Total Sold Sellouts/Shows Seats Left/Total Seats Perct Sold Comp CM 461.16 74 2281 0/81 8327/10608 21.50% 95.46m TROS (adj) n/a 49 10519 2/193 11468/21987 47.84% n/a ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TROS (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Captain Marvel.