Porthos

As long as it does sub 130, I don't particularly care how it gets there.

CA:CW had a Sunday drop of -30.7%, for what its worth.

Best case scenario of 37m: -43.2% from Thr/Fri -17.1% From True Friday using the BvS Sun drop of -33.3 gives: 24.67m Which is a 126.8 OW. Ouch.

Not so much meltdowns as much as page after page of: Only a couple of people are really pissed and neither one of them really reached the meltdown stage. Which is kinda a worrying sign in and of itself, if you ask me.

What I mean by this, BTW, is that the films are relying on a core that I am not certain can be taken for granted. That SS opened so huge is a great sign for the core in general. The drop offs though make me wonder how stable the core actually is. Thus I ain't spreading doom and gloom. But showing concern? Yeah, I think that's accurate. Even while acknowledging that this is a fantastic OW (and probably overall gross) for the film. Both things can be equally true, as I said upthread.

I agree on every single point here. The one caution I would have is that if this has even worse legs than BvS, and/or has more frontloading, it's not a great sign for the health of the range. Or rather, it raises some red flags that shouldn't be ignored. Shouldn't be overreacted to, either. Call it a warning sign then. Nothing more. but nothing less, either.

No, not really. I was predicting a sub 130 OW off a 64m OD. The numbers I posted up thread only required slightly worse internal legs than BvS. More frontloading + similiar WoM = Sub 130 OW. Not THAT hard to predict, IMO. Either that or it's a blind squirrel finding a nut once in a while.

Needs to really recover on Sunday. We're talking a sub-15% drop on Sunday, presuming a 35 Sat. I mean, it's possible, as this is still the Summer. But it's not something I would put a bet on. Edit Obviously, the higher the Sat number, the better for SS. A 38m Sat, for instance, only requires a sub-30% drop. I personally think it will be close. But mostly because I'm still thinking the high end of the mid-30s. Plus I don't want to jinx my Casino bet.

I'm sorry I must be behind. I thought the company line from before Friday was that no one watches the Olympics. Or at least no one in the main target demo of Suicide Squad. I must have imagined all the posts that poo-pooed the possible effect of the Olympics, I guess.

Not trying to toot my own horn, but from the BO Tracking thread on Wed: Slightly higher OD, but larger Sat drop. Possibly. I thought for a while that might open to a fixed percentage of CA but then have a BvS internal multiplier as WoM got around. If it has worse legs than BvS that isn't necessarily worse WoM, but a sign of frontloading as the DCEU fans rushing out to see it ASAP, much like has been happening to Marvel films recently. In other words, frontloading + mixed-to-bad WoM = historic Fri-Sat drop. Again, presuming Rth is on the money when it comes to the range.

??? If this is in the mid 30s range this is a HISTORIC drop. One which many films with far larger preview numbers never sniffed. There's no real other way to look at it, IMO.

I say the following without irony or snark. I am glad that we have BvS if only so we can have the Sad Affleck for the rest of time. That's how good it is.

So if this range is correct and if the OW looks to have massive internal drop offs again, NOW can we say that, yes, RT can be predictive? Yes, yes, not always (Tarzan says hello). Still, this and BvS is showing that RT score can be part of the conversation when it comes to thinking about OW numbers. Not exhaustive on its own, no. But a part? Well, it's hard to see how it shouldn't be part of the conversation. The trick will be to figure out how much of the conversation.

You doubt the Asgardian?!? Away with you, heathen!

This studio is afraid of us...We have seen have seen its true face. The silver screens are extended gutters and the gutters are full of darkness and when the popcorn tubs finally turn over, all the ushers will drown. The accumulated filth of all their darkness will foam up about their waists and all the executives and shareholders will look up and shout "Save us!"... and we'll look down and whisper "No." - Timm and Dini, perhaps.

Was already coming back to report on HP7 PII's drop. That thing really was the gold standard for huge OW and huge drops. Been talked about for years about its frontloading, that's how historic it was. Really should have checked it out first. That SS might enter the same conversation....

Twilight? *checks* 16 1 $71,167,839 - / - 4,070 / $17,486 $71,167,839 / 1 17 1 $41,443,147 -41.8% / - 4,070 / $10,183 $112,610,986 / 2 Wow, even with 37m, that's still not as bad as BD Part 2's Fri-Sat drop!

ABSOLUTELY! They don't take money away from the studios if they get most of the box office in the first week. Just the opposite, in fact! Now that doesn't make the OW to Total ratio worthless, especially for trying to predict future gross for DC movies. At the same time if this movie does "only" 250 to 275, I suspect that while the famous Zombieland gif about crying money would be a bit overstated, it wouldn't be THAT far from the truth. That is, WB would be happy with the gross while absolutely knowing that this pace isn't sustainable in the long run. A sort of "Two things can be equally true" thing at play.

Even if we take the high end of "mid 30s", and use a number of 37m, that's a drop of 43.2% off of the combined Thr/Fri number. If we take the "True Friday" number of 44.625, that's still a 17% Fri-Sat drop. BvS's "True Friday" to Sat drop was 5.8% (53.8 to 50.66). Yes, BvS had much higher preview numbers. And, yes, it was Easter Weekend. But this is summer, so a bit of it all works out. Of course, the number might still go up. And the Sunday drop might not be as harsh. But if SS drops the same as BvS did on Sun (33.3%), that's 24.67, again assuming a high number of 37 today. That's.... not an ideal sign for legs. OTOH, it smashed the Aug OW record and no one can take away from that. In fact, that's fantastic. It really really is. Shame about the legs, though. Probably.

He who lives by the tweet, dies by the tweet. - Agamemnon, if he lived today, probably.

FWIW, the Audience Score over at Flixter/Rotten Tomatoes has dropped to 73 from an initial 75. Not huge movement, and not dropping as fast as BvS, but still dropping down. As an aside, still not sure how the initial ratings before the movie goes live are counted in the overall score, or if they count at all.

*raises hand and jumps around* Me me me!

That's what I was basing my calculations on when I made what looked-to-be ill-fated Casino bets. Thing is, even with good WOM, this should have been thought of as being frontloaded due to DC fans rushing out to see it. This is the third film in the new DC cinematic universe after all. The mixed WOM is just showing that this might indeed play out like BvS instead of something like CW.

MY CASINO BETS LIVE!

"You think with a financial statement like this you can have the duck?" and "Your usual table?" (Chevy Chase) "No, I'd like a good one this time." "I'm sorry, that is impossible." "Part of the new cruelty?" "I am afraid so."