Daxtreme
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Posts posted by Daxtreme
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1 hour ago, efialtes76 said:
Big drops...
KFP3: $1,750,738
TR: $961,351
TFA: $780,785
TFH: $761,434
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21 minutes ago, James said:
I watched more movies in the last couple of days than I did in the last few months of 2015 thanks to that best movies list.
Just finished Kingsman. Whoever said it was the best spy movie of 2015 was right. Insane fun!
Have you watched Victoria?
A very unique film!
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TFA theater average actually went up between 6th and 7th week-ends:
last week-end: $4,184
This week-end: $4,349
And before you say "storm", all the holdovers from last week-end had their Theater Averages go down this week-end.
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$11.12M TFA, very good hold, 21%
It would need to gross about $1.1M every day of this week on average in order to cross $900M on Thursday. We might have a case of estimates on thursday putting TFA below $900M, and then actuals putting it above! That would be incredible
Anyhow, Friday at the latest, we have the first $900M grosser in history. And probably 3rd $2B WW grosser around that time too!
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The 5th Wave
Total Lifetime GrossesDomestic: $20,188,149 30.9% + Foreign: $45,100,000 69.1%
= Worldwide: $65,288,149 Production Budget: $38 million
Not bad. I think Sony will actually make a decent amount of money with this one once it exits theaters. And here I thought they were writing this one off as a loss. International box office really helped there.
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Wow, those are some big differences.
Transformers 4 takes a sizeable hit.
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^
So DH2 still had about ~$40M in it at this point in its run. If TFA also has that same $40M in, it would finish with ~$1.13B OS gross.
I'm guessing it's gonna be slightly more since at this point DH2 was coming out of a $8.2M week-end while TFA is coming out of a $12.6M week-end.
Nice post!
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6 minutes ago, John Marston said:
so is it guaranteed that Force Awakens won't pass Titanic worldwide?
Not without a re-release.
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From jc191 on reddit (good summary):
TFA earns an estimated $10.8m in its seventh domestic weekend, down 23.4% from last weekend. It remains behind The Revenant, which made an estimated $12.4m (-22.5%) this weekend, and drops to #3 behind new opener Kung Fu Panda 3, which opened to an estimated $41m this weekend. In total, TFA made around $16.3m for the full week (down 39.2% from the last full week), with a portion of that drop due to the drop from the MLK Monday the previous week.
This week in China, TFA made $7.7m total, with $5.5m (-43.9%) Mon-Thu and a $2.2m (-72.5%) weekend; in full, the week was down 56.7% from the last.
Excluding China, TFA made around $19.4m (down 36.0%) for the entire overseas week, with around $9.6m (down37.3%) for the weekend and $9.8m (down 34.7%) Mon-Thu.
In its entirety, TFA made a total of around $43.4m (-42.1%) worldwide for the full week. Assuming estimates hold, and given that it made $20.8m worldwide during Mon-Thu this week, it'll likely hit $2b worldwide on Friday or Saturday next week. It misses out on beating or equalling Avatar's time: Avatar had made $2b by January 31, 2010, on the 46th day of its release. $900m domestic will be around the same time, on Thursday or Friday. Both may happen a day earlier if actuals go up from estimates.
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It was a good year for blockbusters, much better than 2014 and 2013, at least for me. Here's my top 15:
1. Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens
2. Inside Out
3. Mad Max: Fury Road
4. Avengers: Age of Ultron
5. The Martian
6. Ant-Man
7. The Hateful Eight
8. Ex Machina
9. Sicario
10. Mission Impossible: Rogue Nation
11. Victoria
12. The Man from UNCLE
13. Chappie
14. Kingsman: The Secret Service
15. Jurassic World
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Where is this top everybody's talking about? I would love to participate!
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1 hour ago, SWXII said:
The person that was here from Quebec had it exactly right if not for the blizzard. Wish she would return. Hail to 900! Amazing.
I'm still here
I'm a He, btw
Indeed, the blizzard messed everything up. I had the movie at 898M coming out of this week-end, and now it's at 895.5
Pretty much exactly the effect of the blizzard! Last week-end it grossed 14.5M while I had it at 16.5M
Because of that, it will only hit 900M on thursday or Friday, depending on the sunday drop and the rest of the week drops.
In fact, TFA might hit 900M about at the same time that it hits $2B worldwide.
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Random fact - TFA has grossed more worldwide (and Domestic) than Man of Steel and The Dark Knight Rises combined.
In fact, you can throw in Green Lantern in there too if you want, because TFA will pass the combined trio next week-end.
Also, TFA was really close to outgrossing both The Dark Knight and The Dark Knight Rises combined Domestic. It will end up like 40-60M below their total.
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1 minute ago, ArmGunar said:
Can you re-post your model with the days/grosses, etc... please
Sure, here it is:
QuoteAlright guys,
My prediction for the rest of the month:
This week: 3 + 3 + 3 + 3 = 12 M --> Total = 824 M
MLK week-end: 27.3 M (35% drop) --> Total = 851 M
Next week: 6 + 2 + 2 + 2 = 12 M --> Total = 863 M
Jan 22-24 Week-end: 16.5 M (40% drop) --> Total = 880 M
Jan 25-28 Week: 1.5 + 2 + 2 + 2 = 7.5 M --> Total = 888 M
Jan 29-31 Week-end: 10 M (40% drop) --> Total = 898 M
It crosses 900M on February 1st, or 2nd at the latest.From Feb 1st/2nd and forward, the movie should gross an additional ~50-60M until the end of its run, for a total of 950-960 M. In my opinion.
1.5 + 2 + 2 + 2 is wrong, it should be 1.5 + 2 + 1.5 + 1.5, I had a slight brain malfunctions there.
Before the week-end, TFA was 2M ahead of my model. But with that terrible week-end, it dropped to 1M behind my week-end, and a further 1M will be lost because of my weird week predictions.
Keep in mind that those have been approximated from January 12th.
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24 minutes ago, Baumer said:
It made 8 million in China. I don't know what it made internationally.
That's the problem, I haven't seen the number anywhere. And you can't subtract from the Internation total from wednesday because it would include the WED and THURS gross in the week-end total!
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Anyone knows how much it made this week-end without China, and only this week-end?
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Well, because of that lackluster week-end, TFA is now 2M behind on my model which puts it at 900M on Feb 1st/2nd.
There is still hope though, next week-end might see a better-than-average hold. We'll wait and stay cautiously optimistic!
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4 minutes ago, misterchief81 said:
Doesn't the Forums link on boxoffice.com still direct here?
Just tested, it does
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4 minutes ago, La Binoche said:
It's 5:20 on the east coast. where the fuck are the #s
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It's hilarious that some movies would love to open with the numbers that TFA is displaying on its Sixth week-end
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6 minutes ago, terrestrial said:
STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS took in $1.88M on Thursday and has grossed $865.03M to date domestically.
#TheForceAwakensSo TFA is 2M ahead of My Model which puts it at 900M on Feb 1st or Feb 2nd. For that, though, it needs a >15.5 week-end and I'm pretty sure that my prediction of 1.5 - 2 - 2 - 2 is wrong for next week, so really, this 2M lead is probably temporary
Anyway, good number! Let's see if this terrible weather has an effect on the week-end.
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In the particular case of this piece of news (Avatar being delayed), talking about Star Wars Episode 8's release date is fairly justified I would say.
On the other hand, having people discuss Avatar's foreign gross in a Domestic week-end numbers thread wasn't justified, and thus people were warned to stop.
That's how I understand it anyway.
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BOM week-end predictions
'Revenant' Hunts #1 Amid Newcomers, '5th Wave', 'The Boy' and 'Dirty Grandpa'
Here's a look at this weekend's predictions.
- The Revenant (3,711 theaters) - $21.62 M
- Ride Along 2 (3,192 theaters) - $18.68 M
- Star Wars: The Force Awakens (3,365 theaters) - $15.28 M
- The 5th Wave (2,908 theaters) - $11.81 M
- The Boy (2,671 theaters) - $11.22 M
- Dirty Grandpa (2,912 theaters) - $10.53 M
- 13 Hours (2,917 theaters) - $10.04 M
- Daddy's Home (2,789 theaters) - $5.44 M
- Norm of the North (2,411 theaters) - $4.18 M
- The Big Short (1,351 theaters) - $3.71 M
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Just finished Kingsman. Whoever said it was the best spy movie of 2015 was right. Insane fun!
I'm a He, btw
Link: "GONE WITH THE WIND's reported adjusted domestic receipts are probably wrong And STAR WARS is probably the all-time champ"
in The Speakeasy
Posted
Source: https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/444omb/gone_with_the_winds_reported_adjusted_domestic/
All credits go to /u/capdeporc2005, I'm merely linking to his post and encouraging discussion
"I thought I'd verify GWTW's claim to being the domestic box office champ. As it's well known, its cume has been accumulated with several re-releases over many decades. Given how often this film is hailed as the all time great in terms of money making, it's surprising how little data there is documenting its performance. BOM for instance doesn't break down the domestic gross by each release, instead lumping most of the presumed receipts with the original 1939 release. And Guinness World Records reports that GWTW has adjusted lifetime global receipts of around $3.4B, but likewise doesn't bother to break it down.
The only source offering a breakdown of the domestic receipts by release is IMDb, so I started from there.
*The receipts figures for the years 1939, 1941, 1942, 1947, 1954, 1961, 1967 and 1974 are as reported on IMDb. The receipts figuresfor the years 1989 and 1998 are as reported on BOM.
**The large discrepancy between gross adjusted for tickets sold and gross adjusted for inflation is due to the fact that increases in ticketprices over decades has outstripped inflation. For example, the average ticket price in 2015 was $8.43 while, adjusted for inflation, theaverage ticket price in 1939 was $3.92.
‡ This is an overestimation because the initial release of GWTW included much more expensive road show advance-tickets.
IMDb also has alternative figures for GWTW's receipts in the years of 1939, 1941 and 1942 of $20M, $11M and $4M, respectively, but this is almost certainly wrong according to Wikipedia:
Currently, BOM lists GWTW's adjusted lifetime domestic gross as ~$1.7B, based on unadjusted receipts of $189,523,031 supposedly earned before its 1989 re-release, but offers absolutely no breakdown of when these figures where earned, and even more troubling, possibly adjusts the entire total based on the value of the $US in 1939.
I am almost certain that the adjusted lifetime domestic gross for GWTW is wrong given that no breakdown is given for the unadjusted total, and is probably based on unverified newspaper reports reprinted ad nauseam. It's likely that there's been much confusion regarding this film's domestic and global receipts and no one has ever bothered to set things straight.
Star Wars' adjusted lifetime domestic total stands at about ~$1.5B and given its release date (38 years later thanGWTW), its figures are likely much more reliable.
SW is likely the actual domestic champ."
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What do you think? I know that some of you guys broke down GWTW's gross, is it consistent with your numbers?