Daxtreme
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Posts posted by Daxtreme
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With Jurassic World legs, Star Wars finishes its run with 943M. I think that's about right.
If we simply add the remainder of the gross that Jurassic World did to its current total, that's 917M. I don't see TFA going below that in any way.
So, final total should be between 915M and ~950M
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23 hours ago, Daxtreme said:
I think Disney is lowballing the sunday drop, which will also result in a bigger monday as a side-effect.
I think Sunday is looking at ~8.2, and then monday 6.2M for 1 additional million over the 4-day.
Well, I called it! And I thought I was being audacious with that 8.2, it ended up being 9! What I didn't expect though was that REVENANT bump holy shit.
I also think that they're low-balling Monday AGAIN now, but only TFA (it will have a drop similar to The Revenant, so closer to 6.6M)
All in all, good hold for TFA, now a 37,7% 3-day drop and 23,1% 4-day drop. Not incredible, but not bad.
The Revenant showing us what 12 oscar nominations does to business.
random comment but my dad is going to see TFA alone on Wednesday. He hasn't gone to the cinema without my mom since LOTR in 2001.
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14 minutes ago, La Binoche said:
The more time passes, the more mediocre and forgettable TFA becomes. I can't even get excited about its box office performance, and I'm a huge SW fan.
You're entitled to your opinion of course, but if you can't get excited about this kind of box office performance, what will it take?
May I ask what you're doing on these forums while we're at it? 'cuz I feel like I'm missing something here. What kind of box office run do you need?
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On 1/16/2016 at 8:26 PM, The Dark Alfred said:
I honestly can't take anyone's list seriously who puts TFA ahead of ANH. I know that occasionally a remake is better than the original, but come on now.
I honestly can't take anyone seriously who doesn't value other people's opinions.
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I think Disney is lowballing the sunday drop, which will also result in a bigger monday as a side-effect.
I think Sunday is looking at ~8.2, and then monday 6.2M for 1 additional million over the 4-day.
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5 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:
I don't see how it's possible without some kind of majorly marketed re-release/re-expansion that scores it at least another 40m or so. And Disney probably won't do that.
I never said it'd hit $1B, I said it will get closer than what most people think. Currently, most people think it's gonna finish at 920. I say more like 950-960
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3 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:
TFA needed a 30% drop at most for the 3 day weekend to keep any long shot of 1b alive. So it is officially over.
Can't say I'm not a little disappointed after its incredible 2015 stretch got it so far, but it's still an insane run of course. Now I just hope it can make another 80m so it doesn't miss the top ten adjusted.
TFA might not get to $1B, but I think it'll get closer than what most people think.
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857M is exactly the number I had predicted SW would be after its 32nd day. If this holds, and it continues following my model, it should break 900M on Feb 1st or 2nd at the latest. And Disney might be lowballing Sunday as usual.
Also, it took only 31 days for Star Wars to cross 850M, while it took 36 days for Jurassic World to cross 600M, the previous record holder.
Unreal.
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Are there Saturday numbers around yet?
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7 minutes ago, RogueLeader said:
So does TFA have ANY chance of being #1 this weekend?
Seems like a REAL long shot.
Well, not really, although if it jumps by like 100%+ again Saturday, for 12.8+ total, and then drops only 20-25% on both sunday and monday, that would mean a ~37-38M 4-day week-end. Still not enough for #1
Unless, that is, if Ride Along 2 drops a lot more than expected, and The Revenant starts dropping a lot too, which is highly unlikely.
0.1% chance of happening I would say.
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10 minutes ago, Fake said:
FRI: 6.4
SAT: 11.2 (+75%)
SUN: 7.9 (-30%)
MON: 5.5 (-30%)
31M 4-Day. I wonder what kind of multiplier DL is using........
They probably went for a 20% sunday drop, and then a 25% monday drop.
SUN: 9
MON: 6.5
33M 4-day
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$6.4M for Star Wars? That's excellent!
I was hoping for anything 6+, 6.2 was pretty much almost my cap seeing the last 3 friday jumps which were... average at best.
Let's see how that holds up now.
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Expectedly, the oscar hopefuls are performing really well.
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So, now looking like
Dom - 940M
OS without China - 1 B
China - 110M
total = 2.05 B
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Dat oscar bump on The Big Short, Carol, Brooklyn, and Spotlight.
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6 minutes ago, Kalel009Shel said:
China has good taste. ?
List of highest-grossing films in China
1 Monster Hunt 2.438 billion China 2015 2 Furious 7 2.427 billion United States 2015 3 Transformers: Age of Extinction 1.977 billion United States
China2014 4 Mojin: The Lost Legend 1.653 billion China 2015 5 Lost in Hong Kong 1.612 billion China 2015
No, no they don't.
VFX Porn and cheesy stories seem to be their go-to movies.
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I saw it 3 times.
My father is going to see it next Sunday with my brother.
He hasn't gone to the cinema without my mom since Fellowship of the Ring in 2001.
If you wanna how this movie can hit top 10 adjusted, it's probably because it drew people like my dad into theaters for the first time since ever.
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19,4% drop I think, if that holds up, which is good.
Star Wars still riding above my predictions for a 900M February 1st/2nd
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Congratulations to those who voted for Best Film Editing, that was pretty unexpected
I must say that the lack of Best Production Design caught me off guard.
So 5 nominations total. I'm still giving the 2 wins to VFX and sound editing.
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1 hour ago, Wrath said:
Assuming it tracks exactly as well as JW, TFA would end at, what, ~960M? I can see that. I just have trouble seeing $1B.
The number I want to see is 940M
Puts it at #10 on the all-time adjusted list (According to box office mojo)
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So $2B worldwide is a lock right?
Using conservative numbers
Dom = 920 M
OS - C = 1000 M
China = 100 M
= 2.02 B WW
My prediction for final tally:
Dom = 950 M
OS - C = 1050 M
China = 120 M
= 2.12 B WW
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1. The Force Awakens
2. A New Hope
3. Revenge of the Sith
4. The Empire Strikes Back
5. Return of the Jedi
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6. The Phantom Menace
7. Attack of the Clones
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On 10/26/2015 at 2:30 PM, Kalo said:
overall the star wars franchise has been nominated for 19 Oscars, in 11 categories including 9 wins (granted most were for the OT)
Star Wars franchise (up until JANUARY 13TH 2016) = 22 nominations, 7 wins, excluding special achievement awards
Ep 1 was nominated for 3 oscars
Ep 2 was nominated for 1 oscar
Ep 3 was nominated for 1 oscar
Ep 4 was nominated for 10 oscars, won 6
Ep 5 was nominated for 3 oscars, won 1
Ep 6 was nominated for 4 oscars
Let's see what The Force Awakens brings to the table tomorrow.
edit: oops, forgot my predictions:
Best Visual Effects (WIN)
Best Sound Mixing
Best Sound Editing (WIN)
Best Original Score
Best Costume Design
Best Production Design
Best Picture (this is the one I would say is very, very unlikely)
total: 7 nominations, 2 wins
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24 minutes ago, ForcedForward said:
That being said, it should still follow JW from here on out, somewhere near 100 million.
I don't understand why people expect this movie to follow Jurassic World and make only $100M more for the remainder of the run.
Sure it's having weekdays slightly weaker than Jurassic World (about 1M per day right now), but just last week-end it grossed 14M more than Jurassic World, and it was a non-holiday week-end.
Plus, next week-end is a holiday week-end! And for the rest of the run, weekdays will be slightly weaker, but week-ends are going to be much stronger.
I just don't think 920M is even possible at this point.
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22.5% bump, that's quite sizable. And more than I anticipated in my model so far, which puts TFA at 900 M on Feb 1st or 2nd. We'll see how the rest of the month goes.
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Can't say I'm not a little disappointed after its incredible 2015 stretch got it so far, but it's still an insane run of course. Now I just hope it can make another 80m so it doesn't miss the top ten adjusted.
Weekend revised estimates and 4 days totals pg 43 4 day est: RA2: 41.6: The Rev: 39.0... SW7: 32.5
in Numbers and Data
Posted
Even with The Hobbit 1 legs the total is still 933.
I just don't see how Star Wars episode 7, nominated for 5 oscars, already highest grossing movie of all-time domestic, much better received than The Hobbit, and part of the most iconic franchise of all time in the USA can have worse legs than The Hobbit 1
I mean, yeah, it's still in the realm of possibility, but I wouldn't exactly call that "expected results".
My model, which I made last monday, has TFA passing 900M on Feb 2nd. So far, TFA is 1.5M ahead of my model, and maybe 2M because I think Disney is lowballing Monday as well, so... 900M by Feb 2nd because I assume it's gonna continue following my model, and then...
only 20M for the rest of its run? It's gonna be coming out of a 10M week-end!
That would require 50% drops every single week until the end of its run. Hell, it might gross an additional 20M on the remaining week-ends alone!