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Everything posted by Jake Gittes
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Labor Day Weekend Thread: Don't Let Go 150K Previews
Jake Gittes replied to Eric Quinn's topic in Numbers and Data
they aren't good with calculations -
1. Will Don't Let Go make more than $3.5M? 1000 No 2. Will Don't Let Go make more than $6.5M? 2000 No 3. Will Don't Let Go make more than $5M? 3000 No 4. Will Saaho finish in the top 8? 4000 No 5. Will Saaho have a higher domestic total than Don't let Go by End of Sunday? 5000 No 6. Will Tod@Caen have a PTA above $3,000? 1000 Yes 7. Will Ne Zha have a higher PTA than Don't Let Go? 2000 Yes 8. Will Angel has Fallen drop less than 50%? 3000 Yes 9. Will Lion King have a larger percentage drop than Angry Birds? 4000 No 10.Will Hobbs and Shaw stay in the top 7? 5000 Yes 11. Will Once Upon a Time's PTA stay above $1,750? 1000 Yes 12. Will 47 Scary stories stay above Dora? 2000 Yes 13. Will anything in the upcoming top 12 have dropped more than 60%? 3000 No 14. Will Britney Runs a Marathon enter the top 15? 4000 No 15. Will anybody notice I have no clue what is happening this weekend? 5000 Bonus: 9/15 5000 10/15 8000 11/15 12,000 12/15 16,000 13/15 20,000 14/15 24,000 15/15 30,000 Part B: The top 3 predictions will score points as follows: Closest: Within 1% - 15,000, Within 2,5% - 12000, Within 5% 9,000, Within 10% - 6000 Outside 10% - 3000 points 2nd Closest: Within 1% - 12,000, Within 2,5% - 10000, Within 5% 7,000, Within 10% - 4000 Outside 10% - 2000 points 3rd Closest: Within 1% - 10,000, Within 2,5% - 8000, Within 5% 5,000, Within 10% - 2000 Outside 10% - 1000 points 1. What will Don't Let Go's OW be? 1.768 2. What will Good Boys' percentage drop be? 12.8% 3. What will be the PTA of Overcomer be? $3,392 Part 😄 There will be 6 films to place and points are expanded because traditionally people haven't scored well here: 2. Good Boys 3. The Lion King 5. Overcomer 7. The Angry Birds Movie 2 9. Dora and the Lost City of Gold 12. Toy Story 4
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Mostly that unconventional auteur projects with highly specific subject matter made by people who know what they're doing can find success in theaters (and even easily outgross some wannabe blockbusters with much bigger budgets) and need and deserve to have the studios' trust and resources. Which is not to say that all or even most of them are gonna make hundreds of millions worldwide, but then they don't all need to cost nearly as much as this did either.
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If you got Parasite in picture don't count Bong out of director. Having seen the movie I could see him pulling a Haneke/Pawlikowski. Johansson would be the first double nom in 12 years not 15 and the fact that she's never been nominated despite doing quality work for nearly two decades is a point in her favor. I'd say it'd have to be a shockingly weak supporting actress slate for Robbie to get in, and I like her a lot in the movie. Best Director looks like a much less clear race than others rn. We're coming up on the 10th anniversary of Bigelow's win and I imagine we can get at least one female nominee this year but for eight straight years the winners have all been big-time directorial showcases and unless there's explicitly a push to reward a smaller intimate movie this year it's hard to see Heller going all the way. Mendes sounds like he could be an easy pick but we really can't know his chances until the movie's seen. Tarantino has the reconstruction-of-'69 aspect and the fact that this may well be their last chance to reward him in this category going for him, but the road would need to be clear and the controversies contained. Frankly I'm hoping for Scorsese, but then I did the same in 2016 and look where it got me.
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Well, that's the thing. Leo was better in Wolf and... that's it, really. (Though I still haven't seen Gilbert Grape.) Pitt was as good or better in, just off the top of my head, The Tree of Life, Snatch, Fight Club, 12 Monkeys, Burn After Reading, The Assassination of Jesse James, even True Romance and Seven. This is him embodying his default Pitt persona but just with more danger and a little more age showing itself. Nothing that revelatory to it. (Though for sure there is an iconic quality to it and maybe that's part of what people are responding to.)
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Maybe it's just the roles he's been playing over the last decade-plus but it's hard for me to imagine today's Cruise doing anxious and insecure and vulnerable. (That he's nearly 60 doesn't help, even if he doesn't look it.) Leo was a great fit for this too, honestly after two viewings I feel stronger about him than about Pitt just because there's greater range involved. Pitt's exactly right and perfectly solid but he's done more impressive work over the years.
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Well, it seems we often don't see eye to eye on performances.
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Summer Game Week 18 - Summer Game has Fallen
Jake Gittes replied to chasmmi's topic in Chasmmi's Infamous Box Office Game
1. Will Angel has Fallen make more than $12M? 1000 Yes 2. Will Angel has Fallen make more than $18M? 2000 Yes 3. Will Angel has Fallen make more than $15M? 3000 Yes 4. Will Will Good Boys' Weekend total be closer to ANgel has Fallen's or Hobbs and Shaw's? 4000 Hobbs 5. Will Ready or Not make more than Overcomer? 5000 No 6. Will Overcomer make more than 4M? 1000 Yes 7. Will Overcomer make more than 6M? 2000 Yes 8. Which film will have a weekend total closest to $9M? 3000 The Lion King 9. Will Bernadette have a larger percentage drop than blinded by the light? 4000 Yes 10.Will GOod Boys Domestic total overtake Dora's by end of Saturday? 5000 Yes 11. Will Lion King increase 100% on Saturday? 1000 No 12. Will 47 Metres Down stay in the top 10? 2000 No 13. Will Once Upon a Time drop more than 43%? 3000 No 14. Will Bring the Soul register a weekend gross amount in Mojo's Weekend Actuals list? 4000 No 15. Will the Angry Birds movie crossover into Star Wars? 5000 5000 Bonus: 9/15 5000 10/15 8000 11/15 12,000 12/15 16,000 13/15 20,000 14/15 24,000 15/15 30,000 Part B: The top 3 predictions will score points as follows: Closest: Within 1% - 15,000, Within 2,5% - 12000, Within 5% 9,000, Within 10% - 6000 Outside 10% - 3000 points 2nd Closest: Within 1% - 12,000, Within 2,5% - 10000, Within 5% 7,000, Within 10% - 4000 Outside 10% - 2000 points 3rd Closest: Within 1% - 10,000, Within 2,5% - 8000, Within 5% 5,000, Within 10% - 2000 Outside 10% - 1000 points 1. What will Angel has Fallen's OW be? 18.615 2. What will Scary Stories's percentage drop be? 46.15% 3. What will be the PTA of Bernadette be? $648 Part 😄 There will be 6 films to place and points are expanded because traditionally people haven't scored well here: 2. Good Boys 4. The Lion King 6. Ready or Not 9. Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood 11. 47 Meters Down: Uncaged 13. Blinded by the Light -
The Goldfinch (September 13, 2019)
Jake Gittes replied to Ash Skywalker's topic in Box Office Discussion
ad astra stans will bring salvation the weekend after. at dawn, look to the east -
For me it depends on whether that list is done contemporaneously or years later. If the former, it makes sense to count it as a 2012 movie because only the French would've had an opportunity to see it earlier. But if we're doing a retrospective and going years back, we should revert to the year it first premiered anywhere. And especially when we go back 20-30 years, when a lot of major films didn't have commercial US releases - it's much easier to just stick with a single source. But this Heathers thing is not a hill I'm gonna die on.